Predictive Modelling for Nuclear Engineering

Computer models have played a central role in assessing the behaviour of nuclear power facilities for decades, they have ensured nuclear operations remain safe to both the public and the environment. The aim of the project is to develop a new and highly advanced modelling capability that is accurate, robust and validated. A new multi-physics, predictive modelling framework will be formed for simulating neutron transport, fluid flows and structural interaction problems. It aims to combine novel and world leading technologies in numerical methods and high performance computing to form a simulation tool for geometrically complex, nuclear engineering problems. This will surpass current computational capabilities, by providing modelling accuracy through the use of efficient adaptive resolution, and will tackle grand challenge problems such as full core reactor modelling. This model will be developed within a predictive framework that combines modelling with uncertainty and experimental data. This is a vital component as inherent uncertainties in data, geometry, parameterisations and measurement will place uncertainties in the modelled predictions. By integrating these uncertainties within the calculations we can quantify the uncertainty they place on the final result.

The combination of all these technologies will result in the first modelling framework of its kind, offering unprecedented detail through optimised resolution with combined uncertainty quantification and data assimilation. It will provide substantially improved analysis of nuclear facilities, improve operational efficiency and, ultimately, help ensure its safety. The project will work closely with world leading academics and industry, both within the UK and overseas. This collaboration will result in the technologies being used to analyse future reactor designs, including those reactors due to be built in the UK over the coming years.

This work will benefit those scientists, government bodies and industries concerned with nuclear power safety, reactor design, fuel processing, and waste treatment and decommissioning. It will also be of interest to those involved in multi-phase flows, structural models, damage models, geological safety of waste repositories and state-of-the-art computational modelling.

Specific organisations that will benefit from this capability include AWE, Amec, MOD (HMS Sultan), and Hitachi-GE (who are likely to build the new reactors within the UK). Through Amec's vast customer base it will also impact others including NDA, HSE, Rolls-Royce and EDF (who are currently running the UK's nuclear reactors).

The areas that will be positively impacted include: nuclear safety, core design analysis, training and decommissioning. These kinds of research outputs are critically important in view of the central role that nuclear power is expected to play over the coming decades. New reactors, and those undergoing life extensions, must meet ever more stringent economic and safety criteria. Assessing their ability to meet these demands is increasingly reliant on these types of advanced computer modelling methods. Designers, assessors, regulators and operators of nuclear plants will benefit through better analysis tools, that have been properly validated. This is essential to realize the continuing benefits of nuclear new builds. This independent research tool will help inform decision makers and improve the public's perception and confidence in the UK's commitment to the safe and reliable delivery of nuclear technology. It will aid in demonstrating that nuclear is a clean and low carbon energy source that presents minimal hazards to both the public and the environment.

This project will contribute to the UK's economy by directly supporting its nuclear industry and contributing towards its energy security. The project also has an important economic impact as it will help combat the introduction of commercial software from abroad. At present this is eroding UK software sales and damaging the prospects for growing UK licence sales during the forthcoming era of new build. In addition, this project is designed to involve major industries and academics overseas. Through these, inroads can be made into their main energy companies (in the US and Japan) and thus increase the project's economic impact on a global scale. This will improve the UK's competiveness and revenue flow through increased licence sales abroad.

This project complements the UK's strategic efforts to increase the pool of trained personnel who will oversee the safe delivery of nuclear power over the coming decades. It will work directly with programmes such as the EPSRC funded CDT in nuclear engineering, led by Imperial College, to help train the UK's next generation of nuclear scientists and engineers.