Airport Capacity Consequences Leveraging Aviation Integrated Modelling (ACCLAIM)
Lead Research Organisation:
Imperial College London
Department Name: Civil & Environmental Engineering
Abstract
Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
Publications
Carbo J
(2020)
Quantifying the impacts of air transportation on economic productivity: a quasi-experimental causal analysis
in Economics of Transportation
Carbo J
(2018)
Evaluating the causal economic impacts of transport investments: evidence from the Madrid-Barcelona high speed rail corridor
in Journal of Applied Statistics
AitBihiOuali L
(2020)
Do changes in air transportation affect productivity? A cross-country panel approach
in Regional Science Policy & Practice
Pogonyi C
(2018)
Growth or Displacement? A Metro Line's Causal Impact on the Spatial Distribution of Business Units and Employment: Evidence from London
in SSRN Electronic Journal
Zhang F
(2020)
Air transport and economic growth: a review of the impact mechanism and causal relationships
in Transport Reviews
Zhang F
(2018)
Quantifying the substitutability and complementarity between high-speed rail and air transport
in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
Manca F
(2021)
Will We Fly Again? Modeling Air Travel Demand in light of COVID-19 through a London Case Study
in Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
Manca F
(2023)
Impact of perceptions and attitudes on air travel choices in the post-COVID-19 era: A cross-national analysis of stated preference data.
in Travel behaviour & society
| Description | The research funded through this award has produced (a) An understanding of the economic impacts of large transport infrastructures (e.g. high speed rail, airports). This will contribute to the policy debates in these areas. (b) A database of air travel demand that will help us further probe into the drivers of air travel behaviour. This is expected to be useful to transport planners in the UK. |
| Exploitation Route | We anticipate the following pathways (a) Further academic research that builds on the academic outputs of this project, viz journal papers and conference presentations (b) Further analysis of the data collected, by academics and planners - to draw additional insights into air travel behaviour (c) Direct engagement of the research team with planning and regulatory bodies in the UK (DfT, CAA), to present the analysis and modelling results from this research project |
| Sectors | Transport |
| Description | The key outcome of this project has been the generation of a novel database and the wide-ranging analyses based on this data. This has broadly had two main impacts to date. First, the empirical analysis has identified COVID19 impacts on air travel demand, which has been a valuable contribution to workshops focused on recovery of the airline industry. In particular, the proceedings of a workshop organised by the US-National Academy of Sciences (details elsewhere in this submission) in 2021, where our work was presented and discussed, has been widely downloaded all over the world. Second, the level of detail in the ACCLAIM air travel database, has served as valuable training for MSc students interested in a career in the air travel industry. To date two MSc students who worked with this data (2020 and 2021 cohorts) went on to start their careers in the air travel industry. Interest from the MSc students continues to grow, as we had 3 more students working with this database in the 2022 cohort, two of who have produced publishable theses. Since the last submission, we have widened our collaborations with academic colleagues internationally to make this data available for analysis by students (ongoing collaborations with Cornell University and the University of Texas at Austin). The data is currently being prepared for archiving within the UK Data Archive. In addition, the findings of the analysis to date (which ranges from covid impacts on air travel demand to environmental attitudes of air passengers to the spending habits and time use patterns of air passengers), will be shared with the industry through the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA). |
| First Year Of Impact | 2021 |
| Sector | Education,Transport |
| Impact Types | Policy & public services |
| Description | Training MSc students for the airline industry |
| Geographic Reach | Europe |
| Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
| Impact | Two MSc students who entered the airline industry with appropriate training |
| Title | Stated Preference Survey for Airline Passengers |
| Description | Novel survey questionnaire aimed at understanding travel related decisions made by airline passengers |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2020 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | The survey questionnaire was used to collect an international dataset of airline passengers from four cities (London, NYC, Sao Paulo and Shanghai). |
| Title | ACCLAIM Air Travel Demand (AATD) Database 2019-2020 |
| Description | Cross national database from London, New York City, Sao Paulo and Shanghai containing information about air travel behaviour and demand prior to and during the COVID19 pandemic. The data was collected during 2019-2020 through two waves of a survey, the first wave collected revealed preference data about an air travel episode in 2019, and the second wave collected stated preference data from the same sample in 2020 about their air travel itinerary choice. The second wave also included a COVID-specific stated preference experiment. The survey is unique in several aspects 1. It is the only cross national air travel demand dataset that we are aware of 2. It is one of the very few datasets that contains both revealed and stated preference data of air travel itinerary choice 3. It contains information about passenger attitudes and preferences with respect to the environmental impacts of air travel 4. It contains information about consumer attitudes with respect to the impacts of COVID19 on air travel |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The first of several papers, based on analysis of this data, was focused on the impact of COVID19 on air travel in the four cities, and was accepted for presentation and publication at the Transportation Research Board 100th Annual Meeting. On the back of this paper, the research team at Imperial was then invited to present our findings at a virtual workshop at the US National Academies of Sciences. We have since published another paper in Travel Behaviour and Society, and currently have 2 more papers the publication process. We also have active collaborations with Ricardo Daziano (Cornell University) and Chandra Bhat (UT Austin) in the further analysis of this data. |
| URL | https://www.imperial.ac.uk/urban-systems-lab/ |
| Title | Demand models using CAA data |
| Description | We developed several air passenger demand models using microdata from the CAA Departing Passenger Survey during 2017, and are currently continuing the model development. The early models are essentially discrete choice models of air passengers' choice of itinerary (time of day, class of travel, etc) as a function of socioeconomics (income, employment status). We are extending these models to include choice of airline as a function of historical performance including delays. |
| Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
| Year Produced | 2018 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | No notable or direct impacts so far, but we are beginning to engage with the DfT/CAA on these models. Towards the latter part of 2018 these models will play a significant role in the integrated airline demand and supply model being developed by the UCL Energy Institute. |
| Description | CAA Passenger Demand Modelling |
| Organisation | Department of Transport |
| Department | Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | The Imperial College research team brings our expertise in the disaggregate econometric modelling of passenger demand to this partnership. This expertise enables us to analyse and exploit the CAA data in a manner that is otherwise not within their means to do so. Our analysis of the CAA data will also enable the CAA to answer policy questions of particular interest to them. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The CAA provides detailed (individual level) data from their Departing Passenger Survey - which is conducted on an annual basis at UK airports. While aggregate statistics from this survey are freely available on the CAA website, they have committed to sharing the microdata for 2007-2010 which if commercially acquired would cost at least 50,000GBP pa. The CAA also brings to this partnership their understanding of the aviation market, and an identification of the pressing needs of this market. Moreover, the CAA will support our survey administration strategy for the significant data collection task planned for summer 2018. |
| Impact | The CAA passenger survey data was analysed as part of an MSc research project in 2017 to produce a distinction level MSc thesis. We are currently engaged in further analysing the data, and have written up a review paper on modelling air passenger demand, to be submitted to the Transport Reviews journal by end of 2020. |
| Start Year | 2016 |
| Description | Imperial CTS - UCL Energy Institute |
| Organisation | University College London |
| Department | UCL Energy Institute |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Our research team provides demand modelling expertise to the supply side experts at the UCL Energy Institute. Specifically, we are developing the disaggregate individual level models of air passenger demand that are sensitive to factors such as air fares, airline and airport reputation for service quality and delays. These are important inputs into the airline decision making models developed by the research team at the UCL Energy Institute. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The UCL Energy Institute brings to us their expertise in modelling the supply side, specifically the decisions made by the aviation industry, and the related supply chain. |
| Impact | This multidisciplinary collaboration has brought together the fields of Transport Studies, Energy & Economics. We have had workshops and exchanges amongst researchers in each of these fields. Tangible outputs in the form of an integrated demand-supply model and research papers have been produced. |
| Start Year | 2016 |
| Description | Ricardo Daziano |
| Organisation | Cornell University |
| Country | United States |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Expertise in analysing air travel behaviour |
| Collaborator Contribution | Expertise in stated preference survey design |
| Impact | We have worked together to design a data collection exercise. The data is being cleaned, and curated. We anticipate a few key outcomes over the next 1-2 years: (a) a unique data source that will be a direct output of this project and available for research, (b) a journal paper about the design of surveys for air travel demand, and (c) models of air travel behaviour based on analyses of the dataset |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Description | Carbo and Graham, TRB 2019 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation made at the 98th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington DC, January 2019. The conference is attended by over 10000 participants including academics, industry representatives, planners and policymakers. The session which this presentation belonged to was attended by 50-100 people, and raised interesting methodological discussions |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://trid.trb.org/view/1572833 |
| Description | Committee Presentation at TRB 2019 & 2020 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Talk presented at a scientific committee meeting during the Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board. The committee meeting was attended by around 50 people, who were a mix of academics from a number of countries, planners from government agencies in the US, and transportation consultants from a number of countries. The talk sparked interesting discussions about the lack of data to understand air travel demand. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019,2020 |
| Description | Dialogue with CAA as an end user |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
| Results and Impact | 5 people from the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) attended a 2 hour presentation, which was focused on the type of statistical models and potential outcomes from this research project. This sparked questions and discussion about the value of such models to the CAA, which is the UK's specialist aviation regulator. The CAA, who also provided us with some of the early data used in this research project, are now keen to engage with our next stage of data collection and the resulting outputs. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | International Transport Analysis Conference @ DfT |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | The UK Department for Transport, Environment and International Transport Analysis team, organised an International Transport Analysis Conference in November 2016. The aim of the conference was to commence a long term engagement between the DfT and academia, specifically with a view to engaging with academic research projects related to the maritime and aviation industries. I presented a brief summary of this research project, intended as a first step towards engaging more actively with the DfT, and had many interesting questions and strong interest in further engagement. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
| Description | Presentation at a Virtual Workshop of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Our conference paper submitted to the Transportation Research Board 100th Annual Meeting in January 2021, led to being invited by the US National Academic of Sciences to present our covid related analysis of air travel demand at a special workshop. The virtual workshop consisted of a primarily American panel, including academics, air industry representatives, representatives of air transport regulatory bodies; and our participation highlighted the value they perceived of the survey data collected as part of this EPSRC funded research project (and its subsequent analysis). |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.nationalacademies.org/event/02-04-2021/docs/DE2B27378C44DE8DDA19C33FAD0F5969BF7E6A77213C |