WATER RESILIENT CITIES:CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY & URBAN VULNERABILITY to HYDROHAZARDS

Lead Research Organisation: Heriot-Watt University
Department Name: Sch of Energy, Geosci, Infrast & Society

Abstract

Cities are the driver of regional, national and indeed global economies. The complex inter-relationship between urban areas and their hinterlands is a vital aspect of a city's economic success. Hinterlands supply resources such as water, food and energy; while being economically-tied to the urban area through trade. Creating resilient, sustainable, water-secure cities depends on our understanding of the potential future risks of changing hydro-hazards (floods and droughts) and our ability to increase our resilience to them. Worldwide, in 2014, hydro-hazards resulted in over $16Bn (floods) and $7.5Bn (droughts) in damages. While, in the UK over the past five years there have been significant challenges to water management posed by hydro hazards. Since 2000, flooding has caused over £5Bn worth of damage, of which £3Bn was caused by the 2007 floods, and over £1Bn from the 2013/14 winter storms, impacting households and businesses alike. Similarly direct costs (estimated at £70-165M) from the recent UK drought (2011-12) arose from impacts to urban water supplies, and industry. Projections of future climate recognise that there is an added uncertainty in temperature and precipitation trends which may exacerbate the frequency and severity of such hazards.
To respond to the stated challenge of transforming our cities to be resilient, sustainable urban centres and in the context of 'adapting to and mitigating climate change', I will quantify uncertainty in future hydro-hazards and design engineering/policy interventions to increase urban resilience which informs future urban water security adaptation for cities and their hinterlands. My fellowship will:
1. quantify future urban hydro-hazard uncertainty in a warming climate using novel techniques,
2. design engineering and policy interventions to mitigate the risk arising from these uncertainties, and
3. improve urban living through enhanced resilience to hydro-hazards.
I will achieve this by capturing uncertainty in hydro-hazard events and cascading this through to hazard assessment, challenging the current deterministic paradigm. I will characterise the vulnerability profile of newly exposed populations or sectors, and develop a ground breaking systems approach to ameliorate risk in order to design transformative resilience strategies. The delivery of this vision is challenging yet possible through combining advances in uncertainty quantification from a variety of fields, with my research which has consistently sought to challenge the deterministic paradigm. Awarding this fellowship will create a unique opportunity to improve our understanding of the role of climate projections on the systematic risk to urban living and how such risks can be addressed.
Output will include:
1. detailed understanding of the change to hydro hazards across the UK as a result of climate projections (and associated uncertainty), communicated in the context of climate variability,
2. probabilistic frameworks to capture climate uncertainty into assessments of systematic risk posed by changing hydro hazards at the urban scale,
3. analysis of the changing urban vulnerability, the uncertainty associated with this and exploration of the newly exposed population using new, and highly discretised vulnerability metrics,
4. a systems approach to urban resilience to changing hydro hazards, and
5. resilience strategies; e.g. transformative engineering interventions.

Planned Impact

The potential beneficiaries from the outcomes of the proposed research include:
1. Urban populations and communities, especially those who may become exposed in future climates
2. Urban planners and local authorities; those responsible for planning and designing urban space
3. Governmental bodies and policy-makers; those responsible for policy development to tackle future water security
4. The Environmental Agencies (e.g. the Environment Agency (EA), SEPA, Natural Resource Wales (NRW)) and the Water Industry (e.g. Scottish Water, Anglian Water etc); those responsible for delivering water security in the face of changing hydro-hazards
5. Engineering and environmental consultants
6. Academic researchers (Universities and Institutes); both within hydro-hazard research; and other disciplines (e.g. maths, computer science)
As set out in the Case for Support, hydro-hazards pose a significant on-going economic burden to the U.K. with potential impacts from the uncertainty arising from climate predictions adding extra pressure. The research gap in our understanding requires new and innovative thought to change how we adapt to an uncertain future, and thus make positive economic and societal impacts.
The output of this research will be of direct interest to the Environment Agencies (EA, SEPA, NRW) and the Water Industry as it will provide quantitative projections of the change to hydro-hazards resulting from climate projections (UKCP 09). This information will be of direct benefit (economic and societal) when developing strategies to manage hydro-hazards, allowing prioritisation of economic resources, as well as policy development. This aligns well with their business needs and strategic priorities; and will inform the development of investment scenarios (see statements of support).
Urban planners, engineering/environmental consultants and local authorities are responsible for the design, functionality and safety of urban spaces. Consequently the outputs of the research will be of direct interest to these stakeholders. Tailored adaptation strategies and greater understanding of social vulnerability to hydro-hazards can improve urban resilience in a co-ordinated manner.
The UK and Scottish governments are particularly interested in understanding the changing urban vulnerability in the future. Quantifying this and how it may change will lead to greater understanding of urban vulnerabilities to hydro-hazards, allow design of tailored adaptation strategies and shape policy, in order to reduce economic losses related to hydro-hazards. Once developed across the UK, this information will be of direct benefit to members of the public who are, or may potentially become, affected. It is these outputs which can inform future hydro-hazard policy development to increase urban resilience. Design of new policy, alongside greater understanding can influence and improve urban resilience to hydro-hazards; thus having a positive societal and economic benefit.
 
Title River Change project: Art installation 
Description The piece of art is designed to engage with the public. It is a large walk through piece of art which takes you on a journey through climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle. 
Type Of Art Artwork 
Year Produced 2018 
Impact This will be displayed in Schools in Glasgow during April 2018. Further displays will be ongoing following the creation of this piece of art. 
 
Title Using Narratives for Change: the Toolkit 
Description This toolkit is the output of the Storytelling for Resilience knowledge exchange project, illustrated by Alanah Knibb, and funded by the Scottish Universities Insight Institute in 2018-19 (https://www.scottishinsight.ac.uk/Programmes/OpenCall201819/StorytellingforResilience.aspx). Each of the stages found in this toolkit represents a stage from the workshop 'Using Narratives for Change', developed by Esther Carmen and Melissa Bedinger in collaboration with Scottish Communities Climate Action Network (SCCAN) working to support social change. This workshop was developed using knowledge from research and action spaces to help equip practitioners and researchers with skills to improve their narrative capacity: the ability to understand and work with narratives. This involved drawing on existing knowledge, for example from the Center for Story-based Strategy. Along the way we learnt that narratives are messy and complex but also very powerful. At the same time, limiting our imagination may mean we overlook the role of narratives to help us achieve our objectives. This led us to understand - and represent in the illustrations that follow - narratives as a patchwork robot with many moving parts, made up of different visible and less visible elements. It also highlighted that our ability to deconstruct narratives is just as important as our ability to create them. The toolkit is based on our 'theory of change' - our understanding of how learning about narratives can increase capacity for linking narratives and action for social change. As such we have structured each stage into three parts: the assumptions that the stage rests upon, the interventions required at the stage, and the anticipated outcomes as part of this learning journey. In the appendices we have included some materials which were developed for our 1-2 day workshop design for a small group of participants (10-15 people). We include these to offer them as a starting suggestion, with which to experiment and see what works best in your own context. 
Type Of Art Artwork 
Year Produced 2019 
Impact The outputs of the storytelling for resilience project were exhibited alongside photographs of climate refugees, in a large exhibition about Climate Reflections at Edinburgh's Out of the Blue Drill Hall (https://www.outoftheblue.org.uk/climatereflections/). 
URL https://www.scottishinsight.ac.uk/Programmes/OpenCall201819/StorytellingforResilience.aspx
 
Description 1. We have identified regions in the UK specifically exposed to changes in future flow regimes. This is an extension of the work completed in the earlier project (Accounting for climate change uncertainty in flood hazard prediction).
2. Hot spots across the UK have been identified for both floods and droughts, aswell as areas which are at risk from increasing frequency of both. This is published and the uptake of the results is now being used by SEPA and developed to explore impacts to water resources for different sectors (SEPA), flood management (Environment Agency) and public water supply (Scottish Water).
3. Hotspots for droughts have been identified across Scotland with respect to different abstractors working with SEPA - leading to further work in Scotland on Drought Resilience. This work has been picked up for further work.
4. We have quantified the role of different uncertainty sources (Multi-Model/ Perturbed-physic ensemble projections) which influence the hotspots of future droughts and floods across the UK. We have downscaled these uncertainty quantification methods to hazards at a smaller scale (e.g. flood plain level), to understand changing flood hazard for the end of the century.
5. We have separated the uncertainty sources across modelling chains and quantified the components of variance arising from different parts of the modelling chain (e.g. GCM, RCM or hydrological model dominated uncertainty) - and completed this on a variety of datasets (Climate service products) e.g. EDgE data (Copernicus) eFLAG (from UKCP18) and CMIP5 (EuroCordex) datasets. We have published multiple outputs from this work - and some is still under review.
6. We have have developed novel uncertainty quantification algorithms which make UQ explicitly possible across computationally heavy flood modelling assessments. This makes climate change UQ possible for routine flood modelling studies. We have submitted a follow on research proposal from this work.
7. We have explored the importance of discretised demographic data for flood vulnerability, and discovered that it changes the understanding of community vulnerability to flood exposure when household level data is used. We used this to drive understanding of property level protection at the household scale. Additionally we have demonstrated that this understanding is crucial when planning for climate change as understanding the changing demographic is critical for resilience strategies.
8. We have developed a systems model for Urban areas, which allows complexity to be explored. This is new - and to our understanding is a significant step forward in understanding interconnections at the urban scale within one model. This work has been published; and we have been funded to expand this work Internationally (India), and are working with Scottish Water to explore its use for water resource planning at the urban scale. We were funded (2020/21) to explore the use of this model to model the impact of the COVID-19 on Scottish cities (working with the Scottish Government and SEPA).
9. The urban systems model we have developed is hazard agnostic and we have demonstrated its use for floods, droughts and a pandemic
10. We have explored flood resilience across 5 cities in the UK - this has been accepted for publication but has yet to be published in this period. This model can help identify where reactive/responsive and transformative resilience strategies are needed and could be employed (whilst understanding systemic interactions and feedback/forward loops)
Exploitation Route Practitioners can use our available database (of high flow changes), and we are creating a similar database for changes to low flows (daily and seasonally). This will be of use for planners, practitioners and policy makers. We are working to widen this to include more uncertainty.
The systems model will be available for the UK resilient cities (Belfast, Bristol, Manchester, Glasgow and London).
We have developed open access software [AHGen and OSMTidy] available on github.
Sectors Agriculture, Food and Drink,Communities and Social Services/Policy,Environment,Transport

 
Description Our work has been reported in the media [see the entry in researchfish]. This led to a briefing for the First Minister in the Scottish Government in preparation for FM questions in parliament. Similarly the media releases in the drought space have been picked up by the Scottish government whom are interested in increasing drought resilience in Scotland. We are currently preparing a Policy Note (akin to the SPICE notes) for the Scottish Government on tailoring drought communication for drought resilience (given the impact of climate change on water resources). Based on these developments I have applied to be a UK representative for the UNEP Global Environmental Outlook 7 assessment and now am a Chapter Author (Modelling and Methodology)
First Year Of Impact 2021
Sector Environment
Impact Types Policy & public services

 
Description Evidence for the House of Lords Inquiry on Resilience
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
 
Description Resilience in complex catchment systems
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
 
Description Climate-KIC Award: ). Glasgow Climate Innovation Challenge, 'Community engagement in climate adaptation'.
Amount £20,000 (GBP)
Organisation Glasgow City Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 08/2017 
End 04/2018
 
Description Frontiers of Development - Climate-Resilient Slums
Amount £19,910 (GBP)
Funding ID FODT392013 
Organisation Royal Academy of Engineering 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 12/2019 
End 12/2020
 
Description Global Challenges Research Fund Award 'Unlocking Best Practice for Community-Led COVID-19 Responses in Indian Slums'
Amount £26,430 (GBP)
Organisation Heriot-Watt University 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 05/2020 
End 07/2020
 
Description Impact Acceleration Account Award 'Urban system response and recovery: Development of an online tool to explore the impact of COVID-19'
Amount £45,950 (GBP)
Organisation Heriot-Watt University 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 06/2020 
End 01/2021
 
Description Scottish Universities Insight Institute Award: 'Storytelling for Resilience - Communicating Systemic Approaches to Climate Change'
Amount £19,975 (GBP)
Organisation Scottish Universities Insight Institute 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 10/2018 
End 05/2019
 
Description University of Edinburgh EPSRC Impact Acceleration account: Tailoring novel uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for the flood modelling industry
Amount £26,199 (GBP)
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 02/2022 
End 06/2022
 
Title Impact and uncertainty methodological framework for the identification of compound hydro-hazard hotspots 
Description There exists an increasing need to understand the impact of climate change on the hydrological extremes of flood and drought, collectively referred to as 'hydro-hazards'. At present, current methodology are limited in their scope, particularly with respect to inadequate representation of the uncertainty in the hydroclimatological modelling chain. We have developed a spatially consistent comprehensive impact and uncertainty methodological framework for the identification of compound hydro-hazard hotspots - hotspots of change where concurrent increase in mean annual flood and drought events is projected. We apply a quasi-ergodic analysis of variance (QE-ANOVA) framework, to detail both the magnitude and the sources of uncertainty in the modelling chain for the mean projected mean change signal whilst accounting for non-stationarity. The framework is designed for application across a wide geographical range and is thus readily transferable. 
Type Of Material Data analysis technique 
Year Produced 2018 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact We have illustrated the ability of the framework through application to 239 UK catchments based on hydroclimatological projections from the EDgE project (5 CMI5-GCMs and 3 HMs, forced under RCP8.5). The results indicate that half of the projected hotspots are temporally concurrent or temporally successive within the year, exacerbating potential impacts on society. The north-east of Scotland and south-west of the UK were identified as spatio-temporally compound hotspot regions and are of particular concern. This intensification of the hydrologic dynamic (timing and seasonality of hydro-hazards) over a limited time frame represents a major challenge for future water management. Hydrological models were identified as the largest source of variability, in some instances exceeding 80% of the total variance. Critically, clear spatial variability in the sources of modelling uncertainty was also observed; highlighting the need to apply a spatially consistent methodology, such as that presented. This application raises important questions regarding the spatial variability of hydroclimatological modelling uncertainty. In terms of water management planning, such findings allow for more focussed studies with a view to improving the projections which inform the adaptation process. 
 
Title mbedinger/USAH-outputs: USAH-outputs (v0.1) 
Description This is the first release of USAH-outputs (v0.1). This included USAH outputs for the paper Urban Systems: Mapping Interdependencies and Outcomes to Support Systems Thinking, held in USAH-outputs/2020-03 - Earth's Future. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2021 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact This is the first release of USAH-outputs (v0.1). This included USAH outputs for the paper Urban Systems: Mapping Interdependencies and Outcomes to Support Systems Thinking, held in USAH-outputs/2020-03 - Earth's Future (https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001389). 
URL https://zenodo.org/record/5527997
 
Title mbedinger/USAH-outputs: USAH-outputs (v0.2) 
Description This is the second release of USAH-outputs (v0.2). This included USAH outputs for the chapter Analyzing city-scale resilience using a novel systems approach in the book Understanding Disaster Risk, held in the subfolder USAH-outputs/2020-09 - Understanding Disaster Risk. The baseline USAH used in this work is a pilot version for a generic template UK city, referred to by the Water Resilient Cities project as 0.0-pilot-UDR. It also includes two location-specific USAH outputs and two location-and-flood-specific USAH outputs. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2021 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact This is the second release of USAH-outputs (v0.2). This included USAH outputs for the chapter Analyzing city-scale resilience using a novel systems approach in the book Understanding Disaster Risk (https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-819047-0.00011-1), held in the subfolder USAH-outputs/2020-09 - Understanding Disaster Risk. The baseline USAH used in this work is a pilot version for a generic template UK city, referred to by the Water Resilient Cities project as 0.0-pilot-UDR. It also includes two location-specific USAH outputs and two location-and-flood-specific USAH outputs. 
URL https://zenodo.org/record/5542953
 
Title mbedinger/USAH-outputs: USAH-outputs (v1.0) 
Description This is the third release of USAH-outputs (v1.0). This included USAH outputs from a subject-matter-expert validation exercise currently under review in the journal Sustainable Cities and Society, held in the subfolder USAH-outputs/2021-xx - Sustainable Cities and Society. The baseline USAH used in this work is version 1.0. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2021 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact This is the third release of USAH-outputs (v1.0). This included USAH outputs from a subject-matter-expert validation exercise published in the journal Sustainable Cities and Society (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2022.103729), held in the subfolder USAH-outputs/2022-02 - Sustainable Cities and Society. The baseline USAH used in this work is version 1.0. 
URL https://zenodo.org/record/5544380
 
Title mbedinger/USAH-outputs: USAH-outputs (v1.1) 
Description This is the fourth release of USAH-outputs (v1.1). This included USAH outputs from an application to track changes during the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Edinburgh. This is currently under review in the journal Nature Urban Sustainability, and held in the subfolder USAH-outputs/2021-xx - Nature Urban Sustainability. The baseline template USAH used in this work is version 1.0; the baseline USAH for comparison used in this work is version 1.1 Edinburgh-OSM-COVID. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2021 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact This is the fourth release of USAH-outputs (v1.1). This included USAH outputs from an application to track changes during the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Edinburgh. This is currently under review in the journal Nature Urban Sustainability, and held in the subfolder USAH-outputs/2022-xx - Nature Urban Sustainability. The baseline template USAH used in this work is version 1.0; the baseline USAH for comparison used in this work is version 1.1 Edinburgh-OSM-COVID. 
URL https://zenodo.org/record/5544762
 
Title mbedinger/USAH-outputs: USAH-outputs (v2.0) 
Description This is the fifth release of USAH-outputs (v2.0). This included USAH outputs from a paper soon to be in review in the journal Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems, held in the subfolder USAH-outputs/2021-xx - Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems. The baseline USAH used in this work is version 2.0. This is then modified to model urban impacts of three hypothetical hazard scenarios (drought, flood, and pandemic) on a generic UK city. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2021 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact This is the fifth release of USAH-outputs (v2.0). This included USAH outputs from a paper soon to be in review in the journal Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems, held in the subfolder USAH-outputs/2022-xx - Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems. The baseline USAH used in this work is version 2.0. This is then modified to model urban impacts of three hypothetical hazard scenarios (drought, flood, and pandemic) on a generic UK city. 
URL https://zenodo.org/record/5702814
 
Title mbedinger/USAH-outputs: USAH-outputs (v3.0) 
Description This is the sixth release of USAH-outputs (v3.0). This included USAH outputs from a paper soon to be in review in the journal Human Factors and Ergonomics in Manufacturing & Service Industries, held in the subfolder USAH-outputs/2022-xx - Human Factors and Ergonomics in Manufacturing & Service Industries. The template USAH used in this work is version 3.0, which is then modified for a Glasgow baseline model, then further modified to understand the urban impacts of a 1:200 flood extent in Glasgow. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2021 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact This is the sixth release of USAH-outputs (v3.0). This included USAH outputs from a paper soon to be in review in the journal Human Factors and Ergonomics in Manufacturing & Service Industries, held in the subfolder USAH-outputs/2022-xx - Human Factors and Ergonomics in Manufacturing & Service Industries. The template USAH used in this work is version 3.0, which is then modified for a Glasgow baseline model, then further modified to understand the urban impacts of a 1:200 flood extent in Glasgow. 
URL https://zenodo.org/record/5744020
 
Description Collaboration with CEH Wallingford 
Organisation UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Collaboration on papers (conference papers and journal paper) Co-production of research bids This is expanding and continuing to grow.
Collaborator Contribution Meetings, discussion and contribution to the research
Impact Accepted conference papers: EGU 2016, IAHR (Liege) 2016 Journal paper (submitted) Climate Change
Start Year 2015
 
Description Collaboration with Climate Ready Clyde 
Organisation Adaptation Scotland
Department Climate Ready Clyde Partnership
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution We will provide climate change projections on aspects of water security in order to plug some of the gaps in their evidence base. We will develop community engagement workshops and focus groups to define the constraints to well being in the context of flood risk for differing levels of social vulnerability and increase community engagement to avoid reinforcing inequalities.
Collaborator Contribution We are working with the Stakeholder groups linked through the partnership in order to deliver research outcomes into the adaptation strategies. We are working with the stakeholder groups to develop a framework to embed climate justice into climate adaptation strategies.
Impact None yet - this is new collaboration which I envisage will evolve through the fellowship - this led to many meetings and discussion however our contacts have evolved and people have moved on hence this collaboration has stopped.
Start Year 2017
 
Description Collaboration with EQUIP (EPSRC programme grant) 
Organisation University of Warwick
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Research collaboration (through Uncertainty Quantification)
Collaborator Contribution Ideas and collaboration
Impact Under development
Start Year 2015
 
Description Collaboration with HydroNation Chair programme 
Organisation University of Stirling
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Development of new bids furthering the climate extreme research: NERC funded MOT4Rivers and new proposals
Collaborator Contribution Co-creation of proposals
Impact MOT4Rivers (NE/X01620X/1)
Start Year 2022
 
Description Collaboration with Mahila Housing Trust 
Organisation Mahila Housing Trust
Country India 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution We contributed development of the USAH methodology to an Indian slum context, analysis of questionnaires, and creation of an online dashboard to present results.
Collaborator Contribution Mahila Housing Trust provided access to past questionnaire data from Indian slums, collaborated on a modified questionnaire, and carried out data collection activities.
Impact This collaboration resulted in data collection of 648 households across slums in Jaipur; application of the UK USAH methodology to an Indian slum context, to understand impacts of climate-related hazards; and an online dashboard to present results (https://waterresilientcities.shinyapps.io/RAEng/). This was a highly interdisciplinary collaboration requiring action research in sustainable development, disaster risk reduction, and systems modelling.
Start Year 2019
 
Description Collaboration with SEPA 
Organisation Scottish Environment Protection Agency
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution The WRC team have developed a novel drought progression methodology. We have been working with Scottish Water in order to determine what outputs would be most useful to them. The focus is on translating our drought projections into impacts, which we hope to achieve through the -use of their non-public water supply abstraction licence data. Update 2021: A collaborative piece of work was undertaken exploring how abstractions by key water sectors in Scotland may exacerbate the impact of climate change. This work was undertaken with a view to informing future water management planning and sector-specific plans.
Collaborator Contribution + SEPA have provided non-public water supply abstraction licence data for across Scotland + SEPA have provided hydropower records associated with these licences
Impact + Output - Manuscript submitted to the journal Climate Risk Management + Outcome - Informing sector-specific management plans
Start Year 2019
 
Description Collaboration with Scottish Communities Climate Action Network (SCCAN) 
Organisation Scottish Communities Climate Action Network
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution We contributed development of the storytelling for resilience project, its outputs, and its final exhibition.
Collaborator Contribution SCCAN have collaborated with us throughout development of a 1-day workshop on storytelling for resilience. They also led the organisation of an exhibition ('Climate Reflections') , bringing together Scottish climate action groups, researchers, and the Environmental Justice Foundation in the process.
Impact A 1-day workshop on storytelling for resilience and climate change; an exhibition which displayed storytelling outputs alongside photographs of climate refugees.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Collaboration with Scottish Government, Glasgow City Council & Edinburgh Data Driven Innovation programme 
Organisation Government of Scotland
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution We contributed an online dashboard which used Edinburgh data and showed the impacts of different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic on the urban system.
Collaborator Contribution Scottish Government, Glasgow City Council, and the Edinburgh Data Driven Innovation programme provided input and feedback on the project methodology, available data sources, and the usability of the online dashboard.
Impact This beta dashboard was the final output of the collaboration: https://waterresilientcities.shinyapps.io/iaa_usah/. This was a highly interdisciplinary project, bringing together data science, systems modelling, and disaster risk reduction.
Start Year 2020
 
Description Collaboration with Scottish Water 
Organisation Scottish Water
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution The WRC team have developed a novel drought progression methodology. We have been working with Scottish Water in order to determine what outputs would be most useful to them. The focus is on translating our drought projections into impacts, which we hope to achieve through use of their water supply zone data. This data is of a sensitive nature and requires a security clearance process to occur before work can officially begin.
Collaborator Contribution + Provided overviews of public water supply abstraction zones across Scotland + Providing water supply zone information for a single location which will serve as a pilot for our work + The provision of security clearance is currently in progress + Further collaboration is to be discussed following this initial work
Impact + Work remains in progress
Start Year 2019
 
Description Collaboration with University of Dundee 
Organisation University of Dundee
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution We will lead logistics and co-develop a programme to test storytelling approaches to climate change adaptation. This collaboration has now ended as our collaborator has moved to JHI - the collaboration will still continue but with another institution.
Collaborator Contribution We will lead participant recruitment and co-develop a programme to test storytelling approaches to climate change adaptation.
Impact Successful bid for Scottish Universities Insight Institue funding, supporting a programme for storytelling and climate change adaptation; this is multidisciplinary between experts in social capital, sociotechnical systems, and narrative research.
Start Year 2021
 
Description Kaya Consulting 
Organisation Kaya Consulting LTD
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution We have collaborated to develop a number of industry relevant research frameworks. This includes the development of uncertainty methods which could be used in industry and the exploration of 'big data' for the use with in flood vulnerability assessments. This work is ongoing. We have developed research in the uncertainty methods fields and in to use household level vulnerability data.
Collaborator Contribution The inkind contributions from industry is in the form of time from the company Director - who is keen to see direct benefit from applied research for furthering understanding in flood risk [exposure and vulnerability] assessments.
Impact A paper in 2018 coauthored on uncertainty and one on vulnerability is pending.
Start Year 2017
 
Title AHexploreR 
Description This tool allows the user to interactively explore the content and connections in the Urban Systems Abstraction Hierarchy (USAH). 
Type Of Technology Webtool/Application 
Year Produced 2021 
Open Source License? Yes  
Impact This gives users the ability to easily explore and understand the Urban Systems Abstraction Hierarchy (USAH). 
URL https://waterresilientcities.shinyapps.io/AHexploreR/
 
Title AHgen V0.0.1 
Description AHgen is a software code written in R. It is designed to generate, analyse, and compare five-level hierarchical networks called "Abstraction Hierarchies". The AHgen was developed to compare Urban Systems Abstraction Hierarchy models (USAH) for UK cities as part of the Water Resilient Cities project (EPSRC EP/N030419/1), using outputs from OSMtidy (V0.0.4; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3941990). Additionally, its underlying functions may be adapted to analyse Abstraction Hierarchies in any domain or at any scale. V0.0.1 is a pre-release version of AHgen. 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2020 
Open Source License? Yes  
URL https://zenodo.org/record/3975549
 
Title AHgen V0.0.1 
Description AHgen is a software code written in R. It is designed to generate, analyse, and compare five-level hierarchical networks called "Abstraction Hierarchies". The AHgen was developed to compare Urban Systems Abstraction Hierarchy models (USAH) for UK cities as part of the Water Resilient Cities project (EPSRC EP/N030419/1), using outputs from OSMtidy (V0.0.4; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3941990). Additionally, its underlying functions may be adapted to analyse Abstraction Hierarchies in any domain or at any scale. V0.0.1 is a pre-release version of AHgen. 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2020 
Open Source License? Yes  
URL https://zenodo.org/record/3975548
 
Title OSMtidy 
Description OSMtidy is an R software code that tidies messy OpenStreetMaps data into a streamlined dataset with a simple naming convention. OSMtidy V0.0.4 is the first release version. OSMtidy can be applied at any scale, from a small village to cities the size of London. OSMtidy is for anyone who needs a concise yet complex geospatial dataset with a consistent naming convention. 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2020 
Open Source License? Yes  
URL https://zenodo.org/record/3941989
 
Title OSMtidy 
Description OSMtidy is an R software code that tidies messy OpenStreetMaps data into a streamlined dataset with a simple naming convention. OSMtidy V0.0.4 is the first release version. OSMtidy can be applied at any scale, from a small village to cities the size of London. OSMtidy is for anyone who needs a concise yet complex geospatial dataset with a consistent naming convention. 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2020 
Open Source License? Yes  
URL https://zenodo.org/record/3941990
 
Title R packages: OSMtidy & AHgen 
Description A series of R packages are in the final stages of development. + OSMtidy extracts, filters and tidies OpenStreetMap data. This work is at the validation stage. + AHgen generates a systems model known as an abstraction hierarchy. The output from OSMtidy is used to weight the physical objects at the bottom layer of the hierarchy. + The final outputs may be used to assess the city resilience as well as the impacts of (hydro) hazards on cities. 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2020 
Impact + Not applicable at this stage. 
 
Title Urban Systems Abstraction Hierarchy (USAH) - COVID-19: Urban Response & Recovery 
Description This dashboard uses the Abstraction Hierarchy (AH) method, a type of systems map that "addresses not only what is performed, but also, how and why" [1] . This connects the tangible and intangible parts of a system; further information about Abstraction Hierarchies in general can be found in the FAQs. The Urban Systems Abstraction Hierarchy (USAH) was developed at Heriot-Watt University to explore impacts of hazards across the entirety of the urban system through five layers of abstraction [2] . The short-term physical reality in each city (i.e. the Physical Objects and Object-Related Processes) can be linked to larger and longer-term outcomes (e.g. Values and Priority Measures). To explore an interactive version of the USAH, try the USAH explorer. Further descriptive information about the USAH can also be found in the FAQs. The USAH was adapted for a specific city (Edinburgh) and to reflect how conditions changed throughout the course of the pandemic. This enabled system impacts to be tracked on a weekly basis, between March and October 2020. To explore what happened during the study timeframe and how this was reflected in the USAH, see pandemic timeline, documentation and FAQs . To explore results, see point-in-time and time-series analyses (hovering over certain elements (e.g. data points) will provide more detailed guidance for interpreting results. For general guidance on interpretation of results, see FAQs. 
Type Of Technology Webtool/Application 
Year Produced 2021 
Open Source License? Yes  
Impact COVID-19 has impacted our lives on an unprecedented scale. It has caused harm to public health, the economy and society - both directly and indirectly. The wide-reaching impacts of COVID-19 have highlighted the interconnectivity our modern urban systems rely on. In addition, policy interventions, such as national and local 'lockdowns' have also produced unintended secondary consequences within our systems. This dashboard aims to: support systems thinking about how cities function; explore how COVID-19 (and policy responses to it) have impacted Edinburgh on a city scale; illustrate how immediate-term, tangible impacts propagate into longer-term, intangible consequences that can inhibit the optimal functionality and resilience of a city over time. This dashboard was made available to Scottish Government, Glasgow City Council, and the Edinburgh Data Driven Innovation programme. 
URL https://waterresilientcities.shinyapps.io/iaa_usah/
 
Title Urban Systems Abstraction Hierarchy (USAH) - Climate Impacts in Indian Slums 
Description This dashboard presents results from a questionnaire administered in five slums across Jaipur, India. Results show information about demographics, climate-related hazards, and climate impacts. It was funded by the Royal Academy of Engineering Frontiers of Development grant, "Climate-resilient slums: a systems approach for inclusive climate impact assessment". 
Type Of Technology Webtool/Application 
Year Produced 2021 
Impact This supported a closer connection to climate issues, as their relevance to daily life becomes understood on a tangible, local level. In future this can act as supporting evidence when speaking with local government officials, facilitate improved decision-making around the 'design' of settlements, and inform more robust resilience action plans in community action groups. It was designed to be easily accessible via mobile phone for use by slum residents. 
URL https://waterresilientcities.shinyapps.io/RAEng/
 
Description Climate Challenge Fund Gathering 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Third sector organisations
Results and Impact This was a larger gathering for a wide range of practitioners at community, regional, and national levels, aiming to come together and collaborate on proposals for funding climate change projects. Within this wider context a workshop session was run on storytelling for climate change.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.keepscotlandbeautiful.org/events/sustainability-and-climate-change/climate-challenge-fun...
 
Description Climate Reflections: Human Stories of Hope and Fear 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The outputs of the storytelling for resilience project were exhibited alongside photographs of climate refugees, in a large exhibition about Climate Reflections at Edinburgh's Out of the Blue Drill Hall.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.outoftheblue.org.uk/climatereflections/
 
Description Climate-resilient slums - a systems approach for inclusive climate impact assessment 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact This was a webinar to disseminate project findings and hold a Q&A: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wxUlMS6NOw
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wxUlMS6NOw
 
Description Impact of Climate Change on high and low flows across Great Britain: a temporal analysis and uncertainty assessment 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact World water day lecture on water security - Flood risk management a systems approach
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Interview with InterSci for Explorathon 2020 event 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Explorathon 2020 was a week-long programme of events running in November 2020. It was intended to celebrate Scottish research as part of European Researchers' Night. The event was designed to be family-friendly and accessible to all.

ChatSci/InterSci run informal accessible conversations about research. This activity was held at peak time as part of the Saturday schedule. It allowed general members of the public to understand the research and underlying processes in an accessible manner.

The facilitator uses this activity to ask questions and start discussions on the research - asking questions from the point of view of the public.

The takeaways of attendees is difficult to gauge given the need to hold the event online. To date, the video has received more than 139 views and has been shared and interacted with on other platforms, e.g. LinkedIn.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://fb.watch/3YAWPURGXs/
 
Description Invited Keynote: Digital Environment Conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Invited Keynote: for Constructing the Digital Environment NERC funded programme
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Invited speaker: Flood Resilience 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Invited speaker in a two-day workshop on the Flood modelling & forecasting challenges in industry - discuss potential research directions in flood risk management
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.seamlesswave.com/Workshop_16Sep2021.html
 
Description Media: press release - Drought hotspots in Scotland 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Media press release on the Drought Hotspot work for Scotland. This was picked up by National Newspapers (UK e.g. the Times, as well as Scottish e.g. the Herald, the Scotsman), this also led to an interview on Radio Scotland and for STV
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Meeting with C40 working group on water resilient cities 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Small working group 5 participants - advising on our method for system approaches in cities and whether this might be useful to the C40 group of Cities.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Presentation at Women in Data Hackathon 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Invited to present a piece of data science research as part of the facilitation of the Women in Data Hackathon.

Presented a high-level overview of the novel Urban Systems Abstraction Hierarchy to ~200 women. Linked to both hydrological and COVID applications. Led to an enthusiastic discussion of the wide-ranging applications of data science. Increased interest in the outputs from the IAA spin-off project and WRC as a whole. A number of attendees asked to be contacted once the associated dashboards were finalised.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Press release and media engagement regarding future flood projections 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact In the wake of Storm Christoph, a university press officer reached out regarding a recent publication on future flood projections. A show press release was prepared to detail the outcomes of the research. Some new more accessible figures were also generated.

In light of the extent of the flooding under Storm Christoph, the story was picked up by multiple media outlets. A large number of online news organisations published the story as part of their coverage of the storm and flooding. It was also featured in a number of print media (newspapers) and mentioned as part of BBC Scotland's radio news coverage.

As a result of the press release, three television interviews were conducted: BBC Scotland News breakfast (pre-recorded interview), Sky News Live and ITV Yorkshire. The latter requested an interview regarding the impacts of the Yorkshire area specifically. Accordingly, the relevant detailed outputs of the study were examined and discussed.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description River Change public engagement events 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact This was a series of public engagement events resulting from the Climate KIC funding for the River Change art installation. The installation was taken to public arts venues, green spaces, and school visits, to maximise different audiences for public engagement.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017,2018
 
Description Storytelling for Resilience workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Third sector organisations
Results and Impact This was a workshop designed to take practitioners at a community level in Scotland through a series of exercises to understand storytelling around climate change. Attendants included Scottish Communities Climate Action Network, Friends of the Earth, Stop Climate Chaos, Extinction Rebellion, Development Trust Association Scotland, and more.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Storytelling for Resilience workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact This was a workshop designed to take policymakers and practitioners at a national level in Scotland through a series of exercises to understand storytelling around climate change. Attendants included Scottish Government, city councils, community action groups, and environmental change organisations.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description UNEP GEO7 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact I applied based on the skills developed through this Fellowship to be a UK author for the UNEP Global Environmental Outlook 7 assessment. This however is just at the start.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://www.unep.org/geo/about-geo/geo-process/geo-7-process
 
Description Unlocking Best Practice for Community-Led COVID-19 Responses in Indian Slums webinar 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact This was a webinar to disseminate project findings and hold a Q&A: https://youtu.be/Epzbj4EB0Rs
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Urban systems modelling: DAFNI Scotland Roadshow 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Engage with interested academics to show potential of DAFNI across Scotland. My talk showed the potential of the Urban Systems Model which we have developed.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://dafni.ac.uk/roadshow-scotland/
 
Description Water Resilient Cities stakeholder meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact This was a project stakeholder meeting and workshop. This fed back new results to relevant parties, and honed research strategy for the coming year.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Water Resilient Cities stakeholder meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact This was a project stakeholder meeting and workshop. This fed back new results to relevant parties, and honed research strategy for the coming year.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Water Resilient cities start-up meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Start up meeting with stakeholders, and presentation of initial results. The workshop agreed common terminology for the project, and potential research objectives and case study locations in order to embed industry and governmental need in the project from the outset.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017