Newton Fund - Rapid Earthquake Risk Assessment and Post-Earthquake Disaster Management Framework for Substandard Buildings in Turkey

As a consequence of population growth and urbanisation, our exposure to the seismic hazard is increasing, with the greatest risk arising from substandard constructions. Substandard reinforced concrete (RC) structures account for a large proportion of the existing building stock in urban and suburban regions of Turkey. Such structures are known to be highly vulnerable and have experienced catastrophic damage during past earthquakes (Kocaeli 1999, Duzce 1999, and Van 2011) leading to inexcusably extensive human, economic and societal losses given that the Turkish Seismic Design Code (1997) was revised in 2007 to introduce more stringent requirements for seismic design and mitigate vulnerability. However, the benefits of modern codes and more stringent code enforcement and inspection during design and construction will only benefit society in the future, whilst the current stock remains highly vulnerable. Consequently, there is an urgent need for reliable vulnerability assessments, appropriate seismic risk management strategies and fast rapid post-disaster response to significantly reduce potential losses in future severe earthquakes.
The aim of this collaboration is to synergise complementary expertise of leading institutions in Turkey and the UK in the field of Earthquake Engineering and Seismic Risk Assessment and Crisis Management so as to develop, an innovative, integrated and efficient framework for multi-hazard seismic risk assessment and disaster mitigation in Turkey. Rapid earthquake risk assessment and post-earthquake disaster intelligence obtained from real-time data from smart devices will be coupled for the first time. This synergy will contribute to the coordination of post-earthquake search and rescue actions, enhance situational awareness and to validate earthquake risk assessment predictions.
A new methodology for rapid assessment of structures will be created considering all components of primary/secondary earthquake hazards (e.g. landslides and liquefaction), structural vulnerability and financial/economic aspects. A previously developed comprehensive rapid risk assessment framework for substandard buildings will be used to provide a benchmark for calibration and optimisation of the developed framework. Pre/post-earthquake inventory data collected from substandard buildings in Turkey (region of Marmara) and high-quality seismological information from in-field measurements will be used in the calibration/optimisation process.

The project will also address communication and knowledge modelling for crisis management, thus ensuring an efficient use of the data obtained from the high-level earthquake risk assessment. An innovative approach will be used to combine field/experimental observations and real-time data from mobile devices and advanced apps widely used for social networking. Such real-time data will be used to further calibrate the developed framework, to coordinate search/rescue actions and to increase situational awareness around the crisis. The use of social media data analysis for post-crisis management of stress, trauma and recovery will help create a more resilience society in Turkey.

The new framework will be used to provide optimal mitigation strategies to reduce economic losses and manage the social impacts of earthquakes in Turkey, and the framework can be extended to the rest of the world.Recommendations for social/disaster management and efficient communication of risk mitigation strategies will be provided to people/government before severe earthquakes.

Turkish society, insurance industry, consultants, contractors, engineers, practitioners and governmental agencies are the most likely non-academic beneficiaries of the proposed research. The outcomes of the proposed project will benefit Turkish society through reducing damage to buildings, which leads to long-term economic stability and a safer environment for poor communities living in the vicinity of developing zones of metropolitan cities. By reducing seismic risk and providing better crisis management systems, a more resilient society will be created. This research will also provide advice to the public and connect them with the responsible authorities for controlling/managing earthquake hazards and post-earthquake crisis.
The developed framework will provide efficient risk evaluation tools for decision-makers, government, insurance industry and practitioners to reduce earthquake-related losses and promote sustainable development in Turkey. However, the framework can be easily extended to other seismic regions. The high-level rapid risk assessment framework will provide valuable information for decision-makers to prioritise and optimise options for disaster/risk mitigation. Post-earthquake disaster management tools will provide valuable real-time information about different failure modes of buildings following to an earthquake that cannot be obtained by post-earthquake field visits. This information will be used as feedback for the developed rapid risk assessment framework.
The provision of post-earthquake disaster management tools will empower both communities and emergency services to communicate and inform one another bringing about enhanced situational awareness for crisis management. This will improve the emergency services, post-earthquake disaster management and the coordination of search and rescue actions resulting in an improved crisis response benefitting the communities who are affected by the earthquake and increasing their resilience. The disaster management tools can also assist emergency services in the management of other crisis situations.
The lead institutions collaborating in this project have strong reputation for working with international teams to maximise their research impact. The positional impacts of the proposed project in the short (3 years) and long (15 years) terms are focused on four main areas:

Society: Improve the overall quality of lives of poor populations by ensuring more resilient buildings where people can work and live safely.
-Short term (ST): Better protection for low income people living in the vicinity of developing zones of metropolitan cities due to reduced risk of primary and secondary hazards occurring as a result of an earthquake. New research and risk assessment jobs in government and insurance institution will be created. Therefore, unemployment rate will fall.
-Long term (LT): Safer environment and job stability, resulting in lower crime rates.

Economy: Contribute to competitiveness, economic development and social welfare of Turkey by providing improved tools for high-level seismic risk assessment to reduce future potential damage and losses during strong earthquakes.
-ST: The creation of new jobs will provide excellent employment and training opportunities in Turkey.
-LT: Growth and economic stability though more resilient cities.

Knowledge: Improve knowledge in the field of rapid seismic risk assessment and mitigation for buildings and post disaster crisis management.
-ST: Accuracy and reliability of rapid risk assessment methods will be enhanced.
-LT: Novel methodologies will be created and transferred to other areas and countries.

People: Enable training of next generation of researchers and engineers in the field of seismic risk and crises management:
-ST: PDRA and postgraduate students will be trained in the UK and Turkish institutions.
-LT: A centre of excellence in Seismic Risk Assessment and Management will be established in Turkey.