EPSRC/ESC Follow on Funding: Operationalising Socio-Technical Energy Transitions
Lead Research Organisation:
University College London
Department Name: Bartlett Sch of Env, Energy & Resources
Abstract
The implementation phase of the energy system transition has shown that ambitious decarbonisation strategies must not only encompass radical techno-economic change but also incorporate societal and political dimensions as well. Socio-Technical Energy Transitions (STET) represents the cutting-edge of truly interdisciplinary academic research - incorporating a marriage of qualitative and quantitative elements in the multi-level perspective, co-evolutionary theories, the application of complexity science, and the use of adaptive policy pathways. However despite the vibrancy of academic research, the impact of STET research on policy and industrial decision-making to date has been negligible.
This proposal (O-STET) is focused on operationalising and applying this highly novel interdisciplinary approach. O-STET will have four main concrete deliverables via two contrasting approaches:
A. STET modelling
1a An open-source modelling framework with agent specific decision-making, and positive/negative feedbacks between political and societal drivers.
2a A stripped down decision maker tool for iterative stakeholder engagement.
B. STET scenarios
1b Logically consistent, uncertainty-exploring scenarios, to frame both qualitative dialogues and existing energy models.
2b In-depth perspectives on branching points and critical components.
The proposal team combines the UK's leading energy systems modelling group (at UCL) with the UK's leading innovation and transitions group at the University of Sussex. The PI is highly experienced at leading major whole systems projects with deep interaction with key stakeholders. In this he is closely supported by the Co-Is at Sussex and UCL, all of whom have a demonstrable success in collaboration, management and output delivery on past EPSRC projects.
Responding directly to the requirements of this EPSRC Call, the O-STET project is structurally embedded with the Energy Systems Catapult, acting as an external "Analytical Laboratory" to the ESC. O-STET will first provide a theoretical and research framing of the ESC's portfolio of energy models and wider project-based assets. Second, bilateral interaction with the ESC will enable novel STET modelling and scenario tools to be iteratively developed and operationalised. Third, to maximise the applicability of the outputs of these new perspectives we will produce a stripped down STET decision-maker tool with a clear graphical user interface (GUI), as well as in-depth perspectives on branching points and critical components for key elements of STET scenarios (for example, new business models).
The O-STET project team and the ESC will then combine as a "Platform" to disseminate STET insights to the full policy and industry energy community, anchored through a set of 6 stakeholder and technical workshops. O-STET will have a major online presence where we will curate and disseminate the open source resources produced under the project; including full models, modular components for hybridisation with other models, model documentation, datasets, socio-technical modelling protocols, scenario templates, data, and policy briefs.
This proposal (O-STET) is focused on operationalising and applying this highly novel interdisciplinary approach. O-STET will have four main concrete deliverables via two contrasting approaches:
A. STET modelling
1a An open-source modelling framework with agent specific decision-making, and positive/negative feedbacks between political and societal drivers.
2a A stripped down decision maker tool for iterative stakeholder engagement.
B. STET scenarios
1b Logically consistent, uncertainty-exploring scenarios, to frame both qualitative dialogues and existing energy models.
2b In-depth perspectives on branching points and critical components.
The proposal team combines the UK's leading energy systems modelling group (at UCL) with the UK's leading innovation and transitions group at the University of Sussex. The PI is highly experienced at leading major whole systems projects with deep interaction with key stakeholders. In this he is closely supported by the Co-Is at Sussex and UCL, all of whom have a demonstrable success in collaboration, management and output delivery on past EPSRC projects.
Responding directly to the requirements of this EPSRC Call, the O-STET project is structurally embedded with the Energy Systems Catapult, acting as an external "Analytical Laboratory" to the ESC. O-STET will first provide a theoretical and research framing of the ESC's portfolio of energy models and wider project-based assets. Second, bilateral interaction with the ESC will enable novel STET modelling and scenario tools to be iteratively developed and operationalised. Third, to maximise the applicability of the outputs of these new perspectives we will produce a stripped down STET decision-maker tool with a clear graphical user interface (GUI), as well as in-depth perspectives on branching points and critical components for key elements of STET scenarios (for example, new business models).
The O-STET project team and the ESC will then combine as a "Platform" to disseminate STET insights to the full policy and industry energy community, anchored through a set of 6 stakeholder and technical workshops. O-STET will have a major online presence where we will curate and disseminate the open source resources produced under the project; including full models, modular components for hybridisation with other models, model documentation, datasets, socio-technical modelling protocols, scenario templates, data, and policy briefs.
Planned Impact
The major objective of the O-STET project is to operationalise socio-technical energy transitions into tools and approaches that can be applied to the critical policy and industrial decision making challenges when implementing deep decarbonisation policies.
A central element of O-STET will be close interaction with the Energy Systems Catapult (ESC), functioning as an external Analytical Laboratory. The ESC has committed to £50,000 in-kind support to the project, spread across its strategic analysis and business development functions. O-STET will first provide a theoretical and research framing of ESC's portfolio of energy models and project assets. Second, highly novel modelling and scenario tools will be iteratively developed for the operationalisation of STET approaches. Third, to maximise the applicability of these outputs a stripped down STET decision maker tool as well as in-depth perspectives on branching points and critical scenario components will be produced.
We will build on this ESC interaction to provide a Platform to distil and disseminate insights to key stakeholders. Building on the prior scoping study (MPSRI), we have engagement intentions from both policy stakeholders (Committee on Climate Change [CCC], BEIS), and industry stakeholders (Shell and Baringa Consultants), and have asked just one of these key energy systems actors (CCC) to provide a support letter and in-kind staff commitment. A key impact mechanism is the 6 stakeholder and technical workshops (1 per work-package) to codify the concepts, define parameters and assess data for STET models and scenarios, and then to evaluate the new model, decision maker tool, scenarios, and branching points analysis.
The project builds on a number of critical themes explored in prior EPSRC projects. It builds on insights on the future of whole systems modelling from wholeSEM, and on narratives from Realising Transition Pathways. It enriches whole systems policy from UKERC, and informs energy systems integration research under CESI. We will tailor invites to 6 stakeholder and technical workshops and already have sustained interest from leading UK universities (Edinburgh, Birmingham, Oxford, Manchester, Leeds, Cranfield, Surrey, Kings College London and Imperial College London), plus internationally leading STET centres of expertise (ISI Franhofer, Germany). The O-STET research team will publish in the highest-impact peer-reviewed journals, and will make 6 presentations at relevant UK and international conferences.
The project commits to producing transparent, accessible and open-source models and scenarios. This will include not only a next-generation STET model that can be adopted by any third party under an open source licence, but also a reduced-form decision maker tool, as well as STET scenarios with detailed branching point and critical component analysis.
O-STET will have a major online presence. All datasets used to calibrate and operationalize the project's models will be freely available. In addition, we will publish policy briefs to provide tailored information and support timely, evidence-based decision-making. Learning from past project's success, the O-STET website will be fed by actively cultivating blog posts, webinars, and social media engagement on multiple platforms (Twitter, LinkedIn, ResearchGate etc).
Finally we will deliver bespoke presentations to partner organisations, and build upon existing advisory roles (e.g. to BEIS and the Energy Systems Catapult) to inform evidence-based reports.
A central element of O-STET will be close interaction with the Energy Systems Catapult (ESC), functioning as an external Analytical Laboratory. The ESC has committed to £50,000 in-kind support to the project, spread across its strategic analysis and business development functions. O-STET will first provide a theoretical and research framing of ESC's portfolio of energy models and project assets. Second, highly novel modelling and scenario tools will be iteratively developed for the operationalisation of STET approaches. Third, to maximise the applicability of these outputs a stripped down STET decision maker tool as well as in-depth perspectives on branching points and critical scenario components will be produced.
We will build on this ESC interaction to provide a Platform to distil and disseminate insights to key stakeholders. Building on the prior scoping study (MPSRI), we have engagement intentions from both policy stakeholders (Committee on Climate Change [CCC], BEIS), and industry stakeholders (Shell and Baringa Consultants), and have asked just one of these key energy systems actors (CCC) to provide a support letter and in-kind staff commitment. A key impact mechanism is the 6 stakeholder and technical workshops (1 per work-package) to codify the concepts, define parameters and assess data for STET models and scenarios, and then to evaluate the new model, decision maker tool, scenarios, and branching points analysis.
The project builds on a number of critical themes explored in prior EPSRC projects. It builds on insights on the future of whole systems modelling from wholeSEM, and on narratives from Realising Transition Pathways. It enriches whole systems policy from UKERC, and informs energy systems integration research under CESI. We will tailor invites to 6 stakeholder and technical workshops and already have sustained interest from leading UK universities (Edinburgh, Birmingham, Oxford, Manchester, Leeds, Cranfield, Surrey, Kings College London and Imperial College London), plus internationally leading STET centres of expertise (ISI Franhofer, Germany). The O-STET research team will publish in the highest-impact peer-reviewed journals, and will make 6 presentations at relevant UK and international conferences.
The project commits to producing transparent, accessible and open-source models and scenarios. This will include not only a next-generation STET model that can be adopted by any third party under an open source licence, but also a reduced-form decision maker tool, as well as STET scenarios with detailed branching point and critical component analysis.
O-STET will have a major online presence. All datasets used to calibrate and operationalize the project's models will be freely available. In addition, we will publish policy briefs to provide tailored information and support timely, evidence-based decision-making. Learning from past project's success, the O-STET website will be fed by actively cultivating blog posts, webinars, and social media engagement on multiple platforms (Twitter, LinkedIn, ResearchGate etc).
Finally we will deliver bespoke presentations to partner organisations, and build upon existing advisory roles (e.g. to BEIS and the Energy Systems Catapult) to inform evidence-based reports.
Publications
Li P
(2022)
The influences of non-optimal investments on the scale-up of smart local energy systems in the UK electricity market
in Energy Policy
Lovell K
(2023)
Operationalising branching points for transition: Mapping policy and pathways for heat decarbonisation in the United Kingdom
in Energy Research & Social Science
Verrier B
(2022)
Incorporating social mechanisms in energy decarbonisation modelling
in Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions
Lovell K
(2021)
Framing branching points for transition: Policy and pathways for UK heat decarbonisation
in Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions
Freeman R
(2021)
Modelling the socio-political feasibility of energy transition with system dynamics
in Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions
| Description | Enabling branching points as a socio-technical energy transition technique to move from historical analysis to a real-time policy engagement tool Formal modelling of socio-political drivers and imperfect decision making to advance the theoretical approaches of this socio-technical energy transition technique into formalised tools - TEMPEST and BLUE models Fundamentally transferring STET concepts and insights to key policy and industrial decision makers in the UK energy transition - Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), Committee on Climate Change, Energy Systems Catapult Through teh O-STET work, we moved beyond past academic STET research (on theoretical frameworks, case studies and historical analyses of system changes). Hence thisbring STET ideas into real world decision making concerned with the UK's energy transition towards decarbonization. STET driven Whole energy system modelling was achieved: A system dynamics model (TEMPEST) to capture societal and political feedbacks that are missing in techno-economic models Plus in a specific focus on the heat sector: A branching points approach as a proactive policy tool to understand the emergence, framing and consequences of key decisions |
| Exploitation Route | Application and extension of formal socio-technical energy transition (STET) modelling tools - TEMPEST, BLUE - this includes transfer of a reduced-form influence diagram of key feedbacks to BEIS and other policy practitioners Application of UK heat pathway branching point analysis Use of quantitative and qualitative STET data - collected via stakeholder interviewers an collated from secondary sources |
| Sectors | Energy |
| Description | Driving underpinning thinking on Net Zero targets and interim UK carbon budgets by ESC, CCC and BEIS Formal transfer and use of branching points analysis and socio-political energy systems models, as tangible operationalisations of STET theory and empirical insights |
| First Year Of Impact | 2019 |
| Sector | Energy,Environment |
| Impact Types | Societal,Policy & public services |
| Description | Industrial Decarbonisation Research and Innovation Centre (IDRIC) |
| Amount | £19,903,412 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | EP/V027050/1 |
| Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 04/2021 |
| End | 03/2024 |
| Title | BLUE |
| Description | The Behaviour, Lifestyles and Uncertainty Energy model (BLUE) is a system dynamic model of the UK energy system that simulates future energy transitions and the associated changes to technologies, energy use and emissions. BLUE is conceptually aligned with the multi-level perspective on sustainability transitions in that it has landscape (government and the macro-scale socio-political environment), regime (the existing energy system) and niche (disruptive technology and lifestyle innovations) levels. Rather than relying on a single omnipotent social planner to allocate resources, BLUE is instead configured with multiple actors, each representing a decision-maker that is independently responsible for a single economic sector. Further work under the O-STET project aims to capture the imperfect socio-political elements of transition pathways, operationalising both the concept of political capital and of public willingness to participate |
| Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Journal papers Trutnevyte E., Barton J., O'Grady Á., Ogunkunle D., Pudjianto D. and Robertson E. (2014) Linking a storyline with multiple models: A cross-scale study of the UK power system transition. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 89, 26-42. Li, Francis G. N. and Strachan, N. (2016) Modelling Energy Transitions for Climate Targets under Landscape and Actor Inertia. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions. Li, Francis G. N. (2017) Actors behaving badly: Exploring the modelling of non-optimal behaviour in energy transitions. Energy Strategy Reviews, 15, 57-71. Li, F. G. N. and N. Strachan (2017). "Modelling energy transitions for climate targets under landscape and actor inertia." Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions 24: 106-129. Li, F. G. N. and N. Strachan (2019). "Take me to your leader: Using socio-technical energy transitions (STET) modelling to explore the role of actors in decarbonisation pathways." Energy Research & Social Science 51: 67-81. Conference papers Strachan N. and Warren P. (2011) Incorporating Behavioural Complexity in Energy-Economic Models. Energy and People: Futures, Complexity and Challenges , 20-21 September, Oxford. |
| URL | https://www.ucl.ac.uk/energy-models/models/blue |
| Title | TEMPEST |
| Description | TEMPEST (Technological EconoMic Political Energy Systems Transition) is a multi-scale model of the UK's energy demand and supply system Type: Multiscale; stock and flow system dynamics modelling, including feedback loops and exogenous factors, linked to agent based modules that represent emergent effects from individual actors interacting Purpose: Exploring the dynamics of energy system behaviour under transition due to technological, social (including economic) and political changes, and the causal interactions between them. Spatial scale: UK Temporal scale: 1980 - 2018 (historical) and 2018 - 2070 (future), in annual time steps |
| Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
| Year Produced | 2019 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Engagement on future energy/emission pathways with the Energy Systems Catapult, Committee on Climate Change and UK Government Departments |
| URL | https://www.ucl.ac.uk/energy-models/models/tempest |
| Description | O-STET engagement with Energy Systems Catapult |
| Organisation | Energy Systems Catapult Ltd |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | Expert knowledge in terms of STET techniques (branching point analysis, socio-political-technical modelling). Training of staff in these techniques |
| Collaborator Contribution | Access to expert knowledge - policy, technical, economic. Access to expert modelling skills |
| Impact | A long series of collaborations and meetings, resulting in two expert workshops and transfer of insights from the O-STET project |
| Start Year | 2018 |
| Description | BIEE 2020: The "Glide Path" to Net Zero |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | This BIEE Dialogue session will be an inclusive and interactive discussion on the immense challenge to meet deep decarbonisation pathways (to Net Zero by 2050) at the UK (CCC, 2016), and global levels (Rogelj et al., 2016). This session follows a spectacularly successful similar dialogue in the 2018 BIEE conference (which focused on: How to move beyond a techno-economic lens to a more holistic treatment of society and energy). A consensus has emerged (Li et al., 2015) that deep decarbonisation strategies must not only encompass radical infrastructure and technology investment, but equally include a societally driven transformations in energy demand changes and technology diffusion. This twin interaction is further complicated by the ambition and consistency of policy and governance initiatives, as well as the need of energy firms to find new and profitable business models. The viable pathway or window or "Glide-Path" to reach net zero emissions by 2050 is fragile. If we are too timid; the scale and speed of investment will be inadequate, virtuous learning cycles won't be enabled, consumer behaviours will remain largely unchanged, and the scope for new pricing and information policies will be limited. However if we are too radical; we will strand capital intensive assets, deploy immature technology and services, get push-back and inertia from a non-engaged society and find the political price in enforcing the transition is too high. In communicating this dilemma, we often employ a visualisation of the glide-path of the space shuttle returning safely to planet Earth - too shallow and it bounces off the atmosphere, too steep and its burns up in it. The dialogue session will be initially framed be an indicative pathway from whole systems modelling of the UK's pathway to net zero emissions by 2050. We will identify key assumptions and potential controversies in this particular pathway. Then we will ask leading UK experts from policy, regulatory, business and societal perspectives to challenge this pathway from a too shallow/slow and a too deep/fast viewpoint. • How narrow is the feasible glide-path? • What needs to happen by 2025? • Will society accept changes in energy demands and dominant technologies? • Can incumbents and new entrants make money in this new energy world? • How much political capital needs to be spent (and will it be spent) to enable the transition? • What is the timing of key interactions between the electricity, heat and transport sectors? • Can the UK (should the UK) move at a faster pace than the rest of the G20 countries? • What research do we need (what questions do we urgently need the answer to)? We will then open the debate to a moderated general discussion, and will close by trying to capture key points of agreement and controversy. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | http://www.biee.org/conference-list/energy-net-zero-society/ |
| Description | BIES expert seminar |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | A highly successful presentation to almost the full modelling and analytical staff of BEIS (Dept of Business Energy and Industrial Strategy) on how to incorporate socio-political factors into formal modelling of UK energy transition pathways |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | IST 2020 dialogue session: Modelling sustainability transitions: challenges and opportunitie |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | This dialogue session was at the prominent International Sustainability Transition conference. It provided an opportunity for discussion on the methodological challenges and opportunities of approaches to modelling sustainability transitions. The challenge of representing the non-linear systems dynamics, path dependencies and co-evolutionary processes of transitions within quantitative models was raised in the STRN research agenda, and has been the subject of debate and funded research within the transitions community for many years |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | http://ist2020.at/ |
| Description | IST 2020 presentation: Framing branching points for transition: opportunities and implications in UK heat decarbonisation. |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | This presentation develops the use of the branching point concept as a tool to support key decisions for reorienting systems for sustainability. In this approach, a pathway is seen as arising from accumulation of many specific decisions which create momentum in a particular direction and so tend to reinforce the irreversibility of the pathway. Three complementary approaches to branching point analysis are identified within the transitions literature: 1) in pathway-scenarios for sustainability, 2) framing key decision-points in historical analysis, 3) to deconstruct the politics of transition pathways. A branching point approach is used to analyse a case study of key decision-points forming within the UK heating sector as pressure for decarbonisation is moving up the political agenda. This analysis highlights the tension between existing development activities for transition and the urgency generated by emissions targets; and an alternative policy approach to decision-points is proposed. The application of the branching point concept in this relatively complex and fluid setting, of a heating sector facing urgent calls for system transformation for decarbonisation, demonstrates the potential to develop branching point analysis into a tool to support and help structure policy decisions for transition. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | http://ist2020.at/ |
| Description | Keynote to the Literary Modelling and Energy Transition conference |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Keynote presentation at major international conference |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.uni-muenster.de/LMET/conference/index.html |
| Description | O-STET final workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | The final workshop of the O-STET project detailed the operationalisation of two key socio-technical energy transition approaches 1. A branching points analysis that moves this techniques from historical analysis of key decision points to a practical real time policy engagement tool. Tis focused on UK heat pathways 2. TheTEMPEST model that captures and endogenises key socio-political feedbacks in an imperfect process to set energy transition targets, develop a "policy soup" to implement them, and drive the diffusion of key energy and emission savings measures up their respective diffusion curves |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Operationalising Socio-Technical Energy Transitions (O-STET) Stakeholder workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Socio-Technical Energy Transitions (STET) are cutting-edge interdisciplinary academic approaches for exploring the techno-economic, political and societal dimensions of energy system change. They include the multi-level perspective, co-evolutionary theories, complexity science, and adaptive policy pathways. They marry qualitative and quantitative elements. However the impact of STET research on policy and industrial decision-making to-date has been negligible. O-STET is a ground-breaking 30-month project which will see if we can (or cannot) operationalise and apply this highly novel interdisciplinary approach. The O-STET team consists of modellers at UCL who are building the TEMPEST model (www.ucl.ac.uk/energy-models/models/tempest), and transitions specialists at the University of Sussex who are constructing UK heat pathways through a branching points perspective. This workshop engaged with key stakeholders to cover teh following appliaction of these tools • Keep an open mind on the relevance of new (perhaps esoteric) research approaches • Bear with us as we iteratively (and imperfectly) develop new models and scenarios • Consider yourselves as key individuals that can work with us in iterating scenarios and models • Think about how to use our models/scenarios going forward - note that at the end of the project in March 2021 all our (open source) tools will be made available to you along with explanation and support |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Roundtable with BEIS on systems thinking for Net Zero |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | A dedicated roundtable with staff from Dept for Business Energy and Industrial strategy on systems thinking for net zero |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |