TRACK: Transport Risk Assessment for COVID Knowledge
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leeds
Department Name: Civil Engineering
Abstract
Public Transport (PT) patronage is currently well below the norm, but as restart progresses the number of people using transport systems will increase. This could increase COVID-19 infection due to increased proximity and interaction with infected persons and contaminated surfaces. TRACK will develop a novel risk model that can simulate infection risk through three transmission mechanisms (droplet, aerosol, surface contact) within different transport vehicles and operating scenarios.
Our interdisciplinary team will collect new data concerning buses, metro and trains (Leeds, Newcastle, London). We will collect air and surface samples to measure SARS-Cov-2 prevalence together with other human biomarkers as a proxy measure for pathogens. We will characterise user and staff travel behaviour and demographics through surveys and passive data collection to relate PT use to geographic and population sub-group disease prevalence. Quantifying proximity of people and their surface contacts through analysis of transport operator CCTV data will enable simulation of micro-behaviour in the transport system. Physical and computational models will be used to evaluate dispersion of infectious droplets and aerosols with different environmental infection control strategies. Data sources will be combined to develop probability distributions for SARS-CoV-2 exposure and simulate transmission risk through a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) framework.
Working closely with Department for Transport (DfT) and transport stakeholders, TRACK will provide microbial and user data, targeted guidance and risk planning tools that will directly enable better assessment of infection risks for passengers and staff using surface PT networks, and help policy teams design effective interventions to mitigate transmission
Our interdisciplinary team will collect new data concerning buses, metro and trains (Leeds, Newcastle, London). We will collect air and surface samples to measure SARS-Cov-2 prevalence together with other human biomarkers as a proxy measure for pathogens. We will characterise user and staff travel behaviour and demographics through surveys and passive data collection to relate PT use to geographic and population sub-group disease prevalence. Quantifying proximity of people and their surface contacts through analysis of transport operator CCTV data will enable simulation of micro-behaviour in the transport system. Physical and computational models will be used to evaluate dispersion of infectious droplets and aerosols with different environmental infection control strategies. Data sources will be combined to develop probability distributions for SARS-CoV-2 exposure and simulate transmission risk through a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) framework.
Working closely with Department for Transport (DfT) and transport stakeholders, TRACK will provide microbial and user data, targeted guidance and risk planning tools that will directly enable better assessment of infection risks for passengers and staff using surface PT networks, and help policy teams design effective interventions to mitigate transmission
Publications
Woodward H
(2022)
An evaluation of the risk of airborne transmission of COVID-19 on an inter-city train carriage.
in Indoor air
Wilson AM
(2021)
Comparing approaches for modelling indirect contact transmission of infectious diseases.
in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
Wallace R
(2022)
Estimating the social and spatial impacts of Covid mitigation strategies in United Kingdom regions: synthetic data and dashboards
in Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society
Aranega-Bou P
(2023)
Laboratory Evaluation of a Quaternary Ammonium Compound-Based Antimicrobial Coating Used in Public Transport during the COVID-19 Pandemic.
in Applied and environmental microbiology
De Kreij R
(2022)
Modeling disease transmission in a train carriage using a simple 1D -model
in Indoor Air
Miller D
(2022)
Modeling the factors that influence exposure to SARS-CoV-2 on a subway train carriage
in Indoor Air
Wu S
(2022)
Modelling the Mobility Changes Caused by Perceived Risk and Policy Efficiency
in ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information
Khadijah Nik Aznan Nik
(2022)
On the Complexity of Object Detection on Real-world Public Transportation Images for Social Distancing Measurement
in arXiv e-prints
| Description | Findings have been shared with Department for Transport and transport stakeholders who are using the knowledge to directly inform policy and strategy. The work has substantially raised understanding of the role that public transport may play in transmission, informing guidance and practice. It has also raised new questions around long term resilience, standards, operating practice and guidance which has implications for design of transport vehicles through to how they are managed. Findings have also been shared with SAGE and relevant sub-groups and informed aspects of COVID-19 policy such as the social distancing review (Spring 2021) and Plan B (Autumn 2021) and have been shared with Cabinet Office and others in government departments. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2021 |
| Sector | Transport |
| Impact Types | Societal,Policy & public services |
| Description | Covid-19 PT advice |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health |
| Impact | Policy reports from TRACK have provided summary information from the research on factors which are likely to affect risks of COVID-19 transmission in public transport and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. This has supported policy decisions around ventilation and face coverings and advice to transport operators on priorities for mitigation. |
| Description | Infection Resilient Environments Pt 2 |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| URL | https://nepc.raeng.org.uk/infection-resilient-environments |
| Description | RAEng Infection Resilient Environments Pt 1 |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or Improved professional practice |
| Impact | Report had a rapid impact on COVID-19 response including improved guidance from HSE and BEIS for organisations, establishment of ventilation advisory groups and the commissioning of a follow on piece of work to assess research capability, social benefit, best practice. |
| URL | https://www.raeng.org.uk/policy/policy-projects-and-issues/infection-resilient-environments |
| Description | SAGE COVID-19 advice |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Research outputs and methodologies plus academic expertise have supported the scientific evidence on COVID-19 transmission and appropriate mitigation strategies. Noakes was a participant in SAGE and chaired the SAGE Environment and Modelling Group. This group has contributed to over 50 evidence papers relating to the transmission of COVID-19, which underpin the public advice on reducing risk of infection and the advice to all sectors of the economy on implementing appropriate mitigation strategies. Several papers reference outputs/models from HECOIRA and previous EPSRC awards relating to transmission of infection, and a number of papers apply modelling approaches developed through these awards. |
| URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-... |
| Description | SAGE advice |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Input has informed government policies on public transport risks and mitigation which have directly influenced decisions on public transport and also enabled wider insights into the variability in factors that affect risks. |
| Description | WHO Europe High level group |
| Geographic Reach | Europe |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Title | Short running title: Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 on the subway |
| Description | This is the underlying dataset which has created the graphs for the journal article entitled: Modelling the factors that influence exposure to SARS-CoV-2 on a subway train carriage. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| URL | https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Short_running_title_Exposure_to_SARS-CoV-2_on_the_subway/16912... |
| Title | Short running title: Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 on the subway |
| Description | This is the underlying dataset which has created the graphs for the journal article entitled: Modelling the factors that influence exposure to SARS-CoV-2 on a subway train carriage. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | None to date |
| URL | https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Short_running_title_Exposure_to_SARS-CoV-2_on_the_subway/16912... |
| Description | TRACK - PROTECT NCS |
| Organisation | Defence Science & Technology Laboratory (DSTL) |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Modelling methods and knowledge developed during TRACK have been used as the basis for modelling of transmission of COVID within workplace environments as part of the PROTECT National Core Study on Transmission. The PROTECT study is a very large national study led by HSE with multiple academic and PSRE partners. The collaboration has been predominantly with DSTL. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Partners have provided modelling expertise and data on transmission as well as provided a general sounding board to support modelling work across both projects. Knowledge gained from modelling within the PROTECT project has influenced the second generation of TRACK models. |
| Impact | None yet |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | TRACK - PROTECT NCS |
| Organisation | Health and Safety Executive (HSE) |
| Department | HSE Science Division (HSE-SD) |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Modelling methods and knowledge developed during TRACK have been used as the basis for modelling of transmission of COVID within workplace environments as part of the PROTECT National Core Study on Transmission. The PROTECT study is a very large national study led by HSE with multiple academic and PSRE partners. The collaboration has been predominantly with DSTL. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Partners have provided modelling expertise and data on transmission as well as provided a general sounding board to support modelling work across both projects. Knowledge gained from modelling within the PROTECT project has influenced the second generation of TRACK models. |
| Impact | None yet |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | Act Travelwise event |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
| Results and Impact | An on-line event with the not-for-profit group Act Travelwise introduced the user behaviour and demographics data collection approaches and was used to support recruitment and stakeholder engagement with 27 organisations including leads on organisational travel plans and the NHS. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | CDRC Conference 2022: Inside Consumer Data |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
| Results and Impact | The conference was an opportunity to showcase the work of the Consumer Data Research Centre (CDRC) and set it in its broadest context. Keynote speakers were Lauren Sager Weinstein (Chief Data Officer, Transport for London) and Judith Batchelar OBE (Director of Food Matters International, formerly Director of Sainsbury's Brand). Prof. Susan Grant-Muller presented work from TRACK on the use of new data and technologies within one of the three parallel sessions, focusing on Urban Analytics. The final session was an in-conversation with four early-career researchers about their experiences on the CDRC's training programmes and working on collaborative industry/academic projects. The presentation by Prof. Grant-Muller was aimed at increasing knowledge of the potential of new data forms to improve understanding of close proximity events, thereby exposure of the public to COVID-19 or other virus, during every day travel. The event as a whole increased people's knowledge about the CDRC and will lead to new connections and collaborations (with both academia and industry). 116 attendees. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Modelling workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Workshop on risk modelling in transport bringing together academic and government scientists to share expertise and knowledge. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | National Academies, Science, Engineering Medicine (NASEM) workshop series on Indoor Air and Public Transportation (COVID) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | NASEM ran a short series of workshops related to COVID-19 and the presentation given was on behalf of the UKRI rapid response TRACK project. The workshop brought together academics, professionals and policy stakeholders from across the US and internationally to share the most recent findings and trials of mitigations. This was an opportunity to share understanding of research outcomes, novel approaches and 'what worked', resulting in a set of guidance and recommendations published on the NASEM website. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | PROTECT-TRACK seminar |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
| Results and Impact | Public and industry/business facing seminar co-organised with the PROTECT national core study on transmission, 1st Oct 2021. Presentation gave an overview of TRACK research and findings to date, and prompted questions. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://sites.manchester.ac.uk/covid19-national-project/2021/09/17/understanding-and-controlling-cov... |
| Description | Stakeholder Focus Groups- Industry, Government and the Public |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Focus groups were held with different stakeholder groups (the public, government and transport industry) to investigate the impact of Covid on public transport and people using public transport. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Ventilation Round Table with Department of Transport and Industry Operators |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
| Results and Impact | TRACK was approached by DfT to provide a guidance document on the best practices to optimise ventilation on ground public transport (buses, trains, taxi's, minbuses etc) with a view to mitigating the effects of both COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 during the winter season of 2022-2023. TRACK researchers responded quickly to this request and put together a guidance document which was disseminated (via DfT) to ground public transport operators. This was followed with a round table presentation and discussion with representatives from industry on 27th October 2022. Positive feedback was recieved from the event, with 75% reporting that the information given was helpful and will help inform contingency planning both in the short and longer terms. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Webinar-Resilience to future pandemics in the transport industry collaboration with RSSB |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Webinar co-hosted between TRACK and RSSB, where the RSSB presented their Pandemic Playbook, and TRACK presented findings relevant to future resilience in the transport industry |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/x/resilience-to-future-pandemics-in-the-transport-industry-tickets-5566... |