Evolution and Resilience of Industrial Ecosystems (ERIE)

The Evolution and Resilience of Industrial Ecosystems programme (ERIE) will address a series of fundamental questions relating to the application of complexity science to social and economic systems. Our programme of research aims to embed cutting-edge complexity science methods and techniques within prototype computational tools that will provide policymakers with realistic and reliable platforms for strategy-testing in real-world socio-economic systems. The programme includes the gathering of data from case studies, the development and application of appropriate theoretical and computational techniques, simulation using agent-based models and the incorporation of all these elements into 'serious games' for use by policymakers. We will study the negotiation of policy goals and options, explore the role of models in policymaking and involve policymakers in the design and testing of our strategy tools.The programme will focus on a crucial aspect of the UK economy: the way in which firms are interdependent on each other, with the interrelationships being multi-level and multi-valued. Within an industrial 'ecosystem', there can be relationships of supply and demand; the transfer of knowledge; competition for labour; the transfer of materials down supply chains; negotiation over standards; collaboration in trade associations and unions; and innovation, product differentiation and branding. We will use mathematical and computational approaches to model these layered, nested, multiscale systems, where the links between actors are dynamic and the exchanges between them are unpredictable, fluctuating and perhaps sporadic. Within this context we will examine concepts and measures of resilience (the ability to recover from external shocks), emergence (the ways in which social institutions arise from individual activities) and immergence (the ways in which individuals react to institutional constraints). This leads us to some of the most intriguing open questions of complexity science. We will seek answers inspired by the real-world industrial ecosystems as captured in our case studies. Our vision is to provide models of multi-level socio-economic systems that are useful for decision-makers aiming to 'steer' towards policy-relevant goals. It is not our intention to provide 'the' policy solution to policy problems (specifically, it is not our intention just to show how particular ecosystems may be made more resilient or more sustainable), but rather to provide a suite of tools which will allow decision makers and their representatives to investigate alternative scenarios given a set of assumptions and initial conditions.We will apply the methods of data assimilation, largely developed in the context of weather forecasting, to incorporate the inevitably incomplete data from case studies into agent-based models, on an ongoing basis, with the aim of providing 'predictive' tools that are continually updated with real-world data. By 'prediction' here we mean the identification of alternative scenarios along with estimates of the probability that each will be realised over given time frames, and estimates of the sensitivity of these to uncertainties in the data and underlying model. It is an integral part of ERIE to study - and involve - those involved in the case study sites. One research stream is concerned with studying those with a stake in the system, as controllers, decision makers, customers, workers, etc., their goals, policy options and their links with the industrial ecosystems that they are interacting with.The research programme is divided into four streams, each consisting of a number of cross-disciplinary projects. Four post-doctoral researchers and a project officer will work on the programme, with seven Investigators from the disciplines of mathematics, computing science, environmental science and sociology, and 9 PhD research students, the latter funded from internal University of Surrey resources.

The ERIE programme has the potential to have an impact on the nation's economic competitiveness and its quality of life through its work on improving the capacity of policy makers to make evidence-based decisions on matter of industrial policy, sustainability and security, by developing and improving the tools and techniques that they need to steer complex socio-economic systems. The ERIE programme will make an impact on a range of communities, including: Policymakers in central government; Decision makers in local and regional government; Trade associations and individual businesses, both large (e.g. multinational supermarkets) and small (e.g. small businesses in South Humber); Non-governmental organizations and campaigners seeking policy goals and Third sector voluntary agencies and charities. They will value our tools and techniques for gaining a better understanding of the policy problems that confront them and the specific knowledge and policy options relating to the two Case Studies (South Humber and Food supply chains) that we shall gather. Engagement with policymakers will primarily be through regular Stakeholder Fora (workshops) that will be held every six months in convenient locations. The project needs to understand the concerns and constraints of stakeholders, as much as telling the stakeholders about work we shall be doing. Another important channel of communication will be through the Advisory Board. This will include senior people in relevant policy locations who will be kept informed of the progress of the programme and who will help to spread the word in influential policy circles. The membership will be refreshed during the life of the programme, ensuring that the most effective people we can find to communicate our message will be members. A third channel of communication will be the Seminar Series. Six seminars will be held every year of the programme. We shall invite influential members of stakeholder organizations to tell the programme members about their experience and concerns. We shall use the opportunity of their visit to give them an intensive introduction to the programme, so that the engagement can be two-way. In addition to these formal activities, we shall exploit our existing informal links with stakeholder organisations. For this, we have the advantage of existing long-term relationships forged through the Centre for Environmental Strategy, who have close links with several organisations in the South Humber area (including the National Industrial Symbiosis Programme and Link2Energy Ltd) and with various bodies concerned with food security and food supply chains (e.g. the Food Climate Research Network). In addition, the ESRC-funded RESOLVE project has many valuable contacts with relevant policy networks. In addition to the above, Consumers, Individuals affected by the operations of industrial sectors and areas and the Public are potential beneficiaries. The programme will communicate its activities with interested individuals and smaller organisations primarily through a range of electronic media. In accord with our general approach that emphasises engagement rather than one-way communication, we shall endeavour to provide interactive means of communication where possible. There will be a 'traditional' website that will hold a variety of programme documents ranging from straightforward explanations of our activities intended for browsing by the public to technical documents intended for specialist audiences; a regular email newsletter, available by free subscription; and a blog written by all members of the programme, with opportunity for readers to comment. We shall also publish a biannual newsletter as a colour printed brochure that will describe outcomes and activities in a way that is comprehensible and attractive to the public. This will be distributed at public events and exhibitions, and also in local libraries and similar in the South Humber region.