A dynamic multiregional overlapping generations computable general equilibrium model for the study of population ageing in the UK

Lead Research Organisation: National Institute of Economic & Soc Res
Department Name: National Institute of Economic & Soc Res

Abstract

Population ageing is an important challenge facing most countries in the world. The scale of the demographic change, which started in the 20th century and will continue throughout the 21st century, is dramatic. Over the past 50 years the proportion of the UK population aged 65 and above has increased from 12 to 17 per cent, and by 2060 it will reach 26 per cent . The main features of demographic change are its slow pace, long duration and inertia. This makes the process fairly easy to project, but almost impossible to reverse. We need to improve our understanding of what impact this process will have. It will have important implications for public policy in many areas, from education and social security, to fiscal policy and employment regulation. To be able to make informed policy decisions, the government requires access to high quality research on the potential impacts of the projected demographic change. It also needs tools that can be used to evaluate the effect of these population shocks and identify the optimal policy responses.
I propose to build a dynamic multiregional Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model for the UK and its constituent countries, and apply it to examine the economic effects of population ageing. An OLG-CGE model attempts to provide a comprehensive description of an economy using a system of equations. The feature that differentiates it from other types of models is that it is age-disaggregated, which allows the modelling of age-specific preferences and behaviour, such as labour supply, productivity, consumption structure, saving behaviour, and retirement decisions. The rich demographic structure of an OLG-CGE model allows for the direct evaluation of the aggregate effects of various scenarios as well as their impacts on different generations. The multiregional dimension is important because of the regional variations both in the characteristics of demographic change and in policy. There are important regional differences in population growth rates, the speed of population ageing, and international and internal migration flows. Moreover, there are already differences in the policies of the UK regions concerning education, health, and care for the elderly, and these are likely to diverge more in the future. The implications of policy heterogeneity across regions is likely to generate complex and unanticipated interactions between regional economies.
This project is relevant for all three EERC strategic priorities. It will enhance the understanding of how demographic change affects economic performance and what implications this has for sustainable growth. The model can be used to evaluate and inform policy interventions to counteract negative effects of population ageing. It will also provide an ideal tool to study intergenerational fairness. The project is interdisciplinary - a mix of demography and economics - and requires expertise in economic modelling as well as understanding of demographic processes.
OLG-CGE is a state of the art technique for understanding issues raised by population change and is used in many countries. There are research teams that are working with large-scale OLG-CGE models in the US, Canada, Germany and France. The World Bank, OECD and US government use this type of model for policy simulations. So far the UK does not have capacity in large scale OLG-CGE modelling and does not participate in the development and utilization of this simulation method. The aim of this project is to include the UK in the international network of OLG-CGE modellers, and to build capacity in the UK to tackle the economic policy issues related to population aging.
This project will focus on the issues of demographic change and population ageing. However, the proposed model structure is very versatile. Areas for potential future applications of the model include, but are not limited to, fiscal, education, social security, migration and energy policy.

Planned Impact

One of the most important and long lasting impacts of this project will be the integration of the UK into the international network of OLG-CGE modellers. This modelling approach is widely used by academic institutions, research institutes, international organisations and governments for simulating the effects of policy and exogenous shocks on the economy. There are research teams working with large-scale OLG-CGE models in the US, Canada, Germany and France. The World Bank, OECD and US government use this type of model for policy simulations. The UK currently lacks a large-scale multiregional OLG-CGE modelling capacity and is not integrated into the international modelling network. This project will close this gap through the development of a UK model, international collaboration with the modelling team at the University of Ottawa, close informal contacts with the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) at the University of Illinois and networking at international conferences, workshops and seminars.
The output of this project will make important contributions to two areas of research. The first is the subject of population ageing and its macro- and meso-economic effects. A wide interdisciplinary (economic, social and demographic) audience will benefit from the findings. The second area is multiregional OLG-CGE modelling. This method would add new capabilities to the existing pool of modelling tools, such as input-output (IO) models, social accounting matrix (SAM) models, static and dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models.
Understanding the effect of population ageing on the economy is crucial for supporting a well-informed public debate on this issue. This project will contribute to existing substantial research in this area by providing new evidence using state of the art methodology. The results of this project will be of great interest to a wide range of stakeholder groups including: national policymakers, for developing policy on labour market regulations and social security provision; policymakers in the devolved regions, who are responsible for education policy and provision of public services; local businesses involved in care and health provision; educational and health authorities; and the wider public, who will be affected by population ageing and the economic policy response. To name just a few government departments and agencies that will be particularly interested in the project findings: the Department for Work and Pensions, HM Treasury, the Office of Budget Responsibility, the NHS, the Scottish Government, the Welsh Assembly Government and the Northern Ireland Executive. I will identify key representatives of stakeholder groups and maintain a dialogue with them throughout the duration of the project. This will ensure that the progress and findings of the project are disseminated effectively to all stakeholder groups. This process has already been initiated through discussion with the Department of Work and Pensions, the Office of Budget Responsibility and the Scottish Government, and senior representatives from all three have agreed to act as reviewers for the project application.
One of the project outputs will be an integrated inter-regional database linking the four UK regions. The database will be made available for other researchers and research organisations on the websites of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and the Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI).
The project will have a lasting legacy in the form of a flexible modelling framework that can subsequently be very widely applied. The proposed specification of the model is intentionally very versatile to allow simulation over a broad range of topics, running from fiscal policy to energy use, and from carbon emissions to climate change. These topics will not be addressed in this project but once the basic framework is in place it can be easily adapted and extended

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description The main objective of the project was to build a versatile dynamic OLG-CGE model for the UK. As the result of this project our team created several versions of the National Institute General Equilibrium model of Ageing - NiAGE:
• Multiregional model. In this version the modelled economy is made up of three regions: Scotland, the rest of the UK (RUK) and the rest of the World (ROW). It can straightforwardly be extended to include Wales and Northern Ireland. This version was used to study the effects of population ageing in Scotland in the context of Scottish referendum on independence. Our main result was that Scotland would be worse off after independence although the effect of independence is small relative to the overall effect of population ageing in the economy.
• With detailed treatment of migration. This version is suitable for simulations of interaction of demographic transition with migration policy. We used it to study the long-term effects of reducing net migration "from hundreds of thousands to tens of thousands". We found that the significant reduction in net migration has strong negative effects on the economy in general and public finances in particular. Currently we are extending this model further and preparing to study the effects of possible migration scenarios after the potential Brexit.
• Multisector model. In this version there are three sectors: 1) health, 2) education and 3) the rest of the economy. Differentiation of health and education sectors allows performing detailed simulations of the effect of demographic change on the provision of public health and education services. The model has been tested and we plan to use it to project public healthcare costs and their decomposition along the main contributing factors.
• Qualification disaggregation. In this version households of each generation are divided into three qualification levels. It is useful to study the effects of demographic change on human capital accumulation and productivity. We plan to use this model to study the effects of population ageing on intergenerational inequality.
• With age-variable rate of time preference - this model proposes experimental way of calibration, which allows perfect matching of the age-consumption profile from the data into the model. Our results suggest that conventional models underestimate the effects of population ageing on the macroeconomy.
This versatile suite of models is capable to address a large variety of topical questions connected with demographic transition. This capability is unique in the UK and will be maintained and developed in the future.
During the course of the project we wrote 6 papers, 4 of which were already published in journals, 1 book chapter (already published), delivered 12 seminars and presentations, organised 2 public events, and 2 modelling workshops, participated in 6 workshops and made presentation at 10 conferences. Our research was covered in national and international media, I gave TV and radio interviews. As the result of this knowledge exchange activity we joined the international network of modellers and specialists in the field and gained valuable contacts with policy community and wider group of stakeholders.
Exploitation Route My current plans include further research using the developed models. First, before the UK Brexit referendum I will publish a paper on the effects of the within-EU migration on the UK economy. This is arguably the most important topic during this debate and it is important to inform public views with solid evidence. Second, I am collaborating with research teams at the University of Kent and Glasgow University who work in the field of health economics. We plan to use the multisectoral model for projections of future public healthcare costs. Third, I had interest from the DWP regarding using the model in analysing the effects of extending working lives - the most important issue in the context of population ageing.
All research that we did and plan to do using the models is very applied and policy relevant. We have contributed to the public debate on immigration, Scottish independence and pension system reform in Belarus. I have provided evidence to the Scottish Parliament Finance Committee during their discussion on the creation of an independent fiscal/forecasting body in Scotland. The decision was taken to create a Scottish Fiscal Commission. Later I gave evidence during the discussion on its remit.
Sectors Communities and Social Services/Policy,Education,Healthcare,Other

URL http://www.niesr.ac.uk/projects/niage-project
 
Description The main societal impact that this project had so far was its contribution to the public debate. The models that were built as a result of this grant allow modelling the effects of demographic factors on the economy. And we are living in a time when demographic factors play very important and sometimes decisive role in the events of high importance. The two areas where the developed modelling framework was applied and had significant impact on public debate are: (1) Economic effects of migration and (2) Scottish independence referendum. 1. Economic effects of migration. This highly politicised and topical issue has been in the public focus for several years now. A lot of research greatly improved the quality of the discussion. The project allowed me and my team to write two papers on the macroeconomic effects of migration on the UK economy, which provided additional evidence for the public discussion. The first paper launch was accompanied by the public event (The effect of reducing migration "from hundreds of thousands to tens of thousands"), which attracted large audience (around 60 people) and a lot of interest. It was covered in the national and international media (FT, ITV news, Telegraph, Mail online, Herald Scotland, City A.M., Reuters, Fortune, Business week, New Statesman etc.). I also gave interviews on Channel 4 news and Voice of Russia radio. The second paper came out shortly before the Brexit referendum and attracted a lot of attention, since migration was arguably one of the most discussed topics during the campaign. There was a press conference associated with it ("The long-term macroeconomic effects of lower migration to the UK") which attracted a lot of attention and the results of the research were extensively covered in the media (BBC, Guardian, FT, Sky news, Daily Mail, Telegraph, Evening Standard, The Conversation UK, International Business Times etc.). I also gave an interview on BBC news channel and on Talk Radio. I also gave a talk at the Greater London Authority on the same topic. Recently HM Treasury contacted me about the possibility of using my model to estimate the effects of migration changes as a result of Brexit. 2. Scottish independence referendum. A lot of the public discussion during the referendum campaign was concentrated on differences in demographic trends in Scotland and the rest of the UK. I used a multi-regional version of the model to study the effects of Scottish independence on sustainability of its public finances. The paper was launched at the public lecture in Edinburgh organised together with the Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE). It was also covered in the regional and national media (FT, Guardian, STV, Herald Scotland, Scotsman etc.). This work will lead to development of new multiregional CGE model for Scotland and the rest of the UK to reflect the new Fiscal Framework.
First Year Of Impact 2013
Sector Communities and Social Services/Policy,Education,Other
Impact Types Societal,Policy & public services

 
Description EVIDENCE ON SCOTTISH FISCAL COMMISSION BILL
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact I gave evidence on the functions of the Scotland Fiscal Commission as described in the Scotland Fiscal Commission Bill. The decision on this will be taken shortly. Among other things I advocated that SFC should produce it's own forecast and not merely scrutinise the forecast of the Government.
URL http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/CurrentCommittees/93009.aspx
 
Description Evidence to the Scottish Parliament Finance Committee
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact The evidence provided information on creation of independent fiscal/forecasting body in Scotland. It influenced the decision to establish the independent Scottish Fiscal Commission.
 
Description 1. Modelling the economic impacts of "Brexit". 2. Free movement: economic and social impacts, past and future
Amount £356,199 (GBP)
Funding ID ES/N003667/1 
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 05/2015 
End 12/2016
 
Description ESRC Future of the UK and Scotland Pre and Post Referendum
Amount £59,986 (GBP)
Funding ID ES/L003325/1 
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 10/2013 
End 09/2015
 
Title NiAGE model 
Description This is a suite of models that belong to overlapping generations computable general equilibrium model family. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact These models allow carrying out simulations of the economic impact of demographic transition and related processes. We used these models to study the effects of migration policy, Scottish independence, public healthcare spending and pension reform in Belarus. 
 
Description Collaboration with Marcel Merette of University of Ottawa 
Organisation University of Ottawa
Country Canada 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Model and database development, new experimental features of the jointly developed model, academic papers writing/publication
Collaborator Contribution mentoring from Professor Marcel Merette and technical support during model development travel and subsistence coast during my research visits to Ottawa and his research visits to London joint organisation and funding of OLG workshops
Impact Three research visits to University of Ottawa (over 60 days) Three research visits of Professor Merette to London (15 days) Five research papers of which four already published Four seminars organised in the UK An OLG modelling workshop organised in the UK
Start Year 2011
 
Description AGENTA workshop "Modelling the sustainability of the welfare state using Overlapping Generations Models" 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I took part in workshop "Modelling the sustainability of the welfare state using Overlapping Generations Models" organised by AGENTA network.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description AIECE meeting (EC) (Brussels, October 2014) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact This is a regular European Commission AIECE meeting which includes European Research Institutions. I was invited to present my work at the working group for med-term forecasting.
There was a considerable interest to my work and useful discussion after my presentation.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description BSPS conference, Winchester 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk sparked questions and discussion afterwards

I received one request for paper and presentation which started e-mail discussion.
I expanded my network.
I connected with a person who is doing related research.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Can an Ageing Scotland Afford Independence? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation sparked questions and discussion afterwards.

Presented research was reported in the media and influenced public understanding of interaction of demographic proceses and Scottish potential independence
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Channel 4 interview 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact I contributed to the public debate on immigration

I received feed-back from the viewers. Many said that they learned something new from my interview
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description ECOMOD conference, Prague 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk sparked questions and discussion afterwards.

New ideas about model development and networking
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description ERSA congress, St. Petersburg 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Detailed discussion of the issues related to Scottish independence and demographic transition
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description FIRST WORLD CONGRESS OF COMPARATIVE ECONOMICS, Rome 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I organised a special session on OLG modelling at the First World Congress of Comparative Economics. Four teams of OLG modellers from different European countries presented their current research. It was very useful for networking and we discussed future collaboration.
Later I organised an OLG workshop in London and invited representatives of these teams.
Currently we are putting together a proposal for future funding with one of the research teams.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description HMT roundtables on Scotland 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Discussion of economic consequences of Scottish independence

My comments influenced the HMT analysis f economic consequences of Scottish independence
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Migration conference, Ottawa 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Discussions of future collaboration
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Migration press release 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Research findings reported in this press release were covered in the media: Reuters, Financial Times, Mail online, Herald Scotland, Telegraph, Businessweek, Fortune, This is money, CityAM, Eurasia reveiw, NewStatesman, PressTV

Contribution to the pubic discussion of the impact of immigration
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Modelling the Effects of Population Ageing on the Economy 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I organised a seminar on OLG-CGE modelling and its policy applications. The event coincides with the completion of this project. The seminar summarised the outcomes of the project and future plans for NiAGE. Four international speakers who have extensive experience in OLG-CGE modelling and its policy applications also presented their research.
There was a considerable interest from the audience about the project and the model. Several people asked for more detailed informations. I made important contacts with experts in related fields who are interested to use the model.
The participants were asked to leave feed-back. Average score for usefulness and quality was 8.5 out of 10.
Some quotes:
"Very interesting. Perhaps one presentation too many? Good balance between policy/technical topics. Quality of presenters was very good"
"Thank you very much!"
"Found the presentation on fiscal impact of ageing particularly useful. Right level of detail and focus on policy"
"I am interested in today's topics becasue of the implications for the research on UK social housing. Very interested in future seminars -- please keep me on your mailing list"
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.niesr.ac.uk/event/105#.VuFiWOaqmmO
 
Description Modelling the effects of population ageing on the UK economy 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact This event focused on Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) modelling and its policy applications. It coincided with the launch of a new ESRC-funded project at NIESR, that involves building a dynamic multiregional OLG-CGE model for the UK and its constituent countries (NiAGE), and applying it to examine the economic effects of population ageing. The workshop introduced the project and development plans for NiAGE, and also presented research by two invited international speakers who have extensive experience in OLG-CGE modelling and its policy applications. Thomas Davoine of the Institute of Advanced Studies (Vienna, Austria) presented his work on modelling pension reforms in Europe, and Professor Marcel Mérette of the University of Ottawa (Ottawa, Canada) talked about modelling the effects of international trade in the context of an ageing population.
This event attracted around 60 attendants.

After this presentation I received a lot of requests for information and expressions of interest to be informed about the progress of the project
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description NIESR migration blog 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Blog contributed to the public debate on the effects of immigration

I received requests for further information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description OLG workshop in Nagoya 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I co-organised and co-funded Workshop on OLG and CGE Modeling: Demographics, Aging and Int'l Trade at Nagoya City University. We managed to attract leading experts in the field and 2-day workshop had a very busy and fruitful programme. It was very useful for networking and discussion of cutting edge methods and approaches in OLG modelling.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description OLG workshop, London 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I organised a Workshop on OLG Modelling:Demographics, Aging and Public Policy. Members of research teams from 4 countries presented their research. We had in-depth discussion on methodological issues.
Through a number of events that I took part in and organised in 2015 we managed to establish a good research network of modellers. We are discussing potential future collaborations. At the moment we are putting together a funding proposal with one of the teams.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description OLG-CGE Models and Demographic Research 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The workshop was organized jointly by the Max Planck Institute and Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).

Eleven researchers from ten European and North American universities and research institutes presented their latest work in the field of OLG-CGE.

Plans for future collaboration with participants of the workshop
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description RES conference, Manchester 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Presented research was included into the conference media briefing and reported in the media (Financial Times)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description RSAI:BIS conference, Cambridge 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk sparked questions and discussion afterwards.

New ideas about model development and networking
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description Reducing migration from "hundreds of thousands to tens of thousands" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact There was considerable interest in our findings. There was interesting discussion after the presentation.

This research added to the growing body of evidence that immigration has positive effect on the UK economy. The findings were reported in the media and refereed to by politicians during the debates.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Scotland press release 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Research results reported in this press released were covered in the media: Financial Times, The Scotsman, Herald Scotland, The Guardian, STV

Contribution to he public debate on the effects of Scottish independence
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Seminar at the Centre of Policy Studies (Victoria University) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I gave a seminar at the Centre of Policy Studies (Victoria University). The presentation was followed by lively discussion about plans for future collaborations.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Seminar at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I gave a seminar at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies. There was a lot of interest in my presentation and a stimulating discussion afterwards
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://wiiw.ac.at/the-long-term-economic-impact-of-reducing-migration-in-the-uk-e-257.html
 
Description TV interview for BT 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact I gave a half an hour interview to the BT TV channel -- national TV channel on Belarus, an equivalent of BBC. My interveiw was shown in the programme Topical Interview at prime time. We discussed issues related to Belarussian pension system, potential reforms and my joint research with Belorussian researchers.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.tvr.by/upload/video/aktualka_281015.mp4
 
Description Technical workshop at World Bank 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The workshop is an element of the new World Bank's analytical work on savings and growth in Poland. Its purpose is to discuss selected existing modeling tools capturing the cohort dimension that could be used by the Bank in this project. They may be helpful to investigate the interactions between demographic shocks, labor market trends, and capital market dynamics and the cost of the public pension system, identify potential structural imbalances in Poland, and propose relevant policy responses.

Future collaboration with workshop participants
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description The Fifth Annual BEROC International Conference in Economics and Finance 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I was invited to the Fifth Annual International Conference in Economics and Finance organised by BEROC to give a presentation. My talk was about the pension reform in Belarus. This is a very topical issue at the moment. I gave interview to two national newspapers, arranged to meet with the Economic Advisor to the President of Belarus and give a TV interview later.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://eng.beroc.by/conference/conference_call/
 
Description The third CEPR-Modena Conference on Growth in Mature Economies: The Effects of Openness on the Dynamic Performance of Economies 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I was invited to take part in the third CEPR-Modena Conference on Growth in Mature Economies: The Effects of Openness on the Dynamic Performance of Economies. I was a discussant for the presentation on the effects of immigration on the economic growth. The presentation was very interesting and I had to add to the debate and wider picture. Our panel discussion was very stimulating. I made contacts with many experts in the field of economic growth and openness.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Third IPTS Regional Modelling Workshop. Seville 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I was invited to take part in Third IPTS Regional Modelling Workshop in Seville. This is a European Commission research center and one of their work streams is development of multi-regional CGE model.
I made a presentation about my OLG model and its application to the issue of migration. The presentation was accepted with a lot of interest. I had further requests to send my paper from several participants. I have also made a very useful contact with a specialist from Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving who helped me to get required interregional data for my project.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Vox column on migration 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Contributed to the public debate on the effects of migration

The column was read over 10,000 times
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description meeting with Rudy 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact I was invited as an expert to a meeting with the Economic Advisor to the President of Belarus, deputy minister of Finance and deputy minister of Social Support. We discussed option of pension reform in Belarus. Currently they are considering increase in pension age and I put forward my arguments for that, which are based on my research.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description seminars at Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research (University of Melbourne) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I gave a seminar to the faculty, researchers and post-graduate students at the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research. The presentation was followed by a lively discussion and debate about strategic future of various modelling approaches.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015