Centre for Population Change

Lead Research Organisation: University of Southampton
Department Name: Sch of Economic, Social & Political Sci

Abstract

Building on the achievements and lessons learned from CPC-I, the scientific programme for CPC-II reflects both continuity and change, with the continuation of a focus on fertility and family formation and on migration, but with the inclusion of new dimensions of mobility and the exploration of the implications of increasing longevity and the changing life course, as well a new cross-cutting theme focussing on how demographic change affects and is affected by patterns of intergenerational relations and exchange. We also plan to continue our work on innovative methodologies and new approaches to modelling population change.

Our research in CPC-II will be organised around the five thematic areas of:
1. Fertility and family change
2. Increasing longevity and the changing life course
3. New mobilities and migration
4. Understanding intergenerational relations & exchange
5. Integrated demographic estimation and forecasting

These thematic areas explicitly recognise the dynamic interaction of the individual components of population change both with each other and with economic and social processes. The first three themes reflect the three main components of population change: fertility, mortality and migration, and build on the scientific progress and achievements of CPC-I, extending the research agenda to address new and emergent areas. The rise in life expectancy is one of the greatest achievements of the twentieth century. CPC-II seeks to investigate the implications of longer lives, and a growing number of older people, for society and the economy. We also address the changing shape of the life course, exploring how the timing, sequencing and duration of demographic and socio-economic events are interacting to restructure the life course, how this may vary between and within cohorts and the implications of such changes for the design of life course-sensitive social policy. In terms of migration, the focus in CPC-I was on the demographic and socio-economic implications of national and transnational migration, including labour and housing market impacts. In CPC-II we will research 'new mobilities', 'new' both in terms of the drivers of movement but also in terms of the changing contexts of migration. We will offer original insights in areas such as the migration consequences of recession on mobility trajectories in terms of adaptation in situ, return or onward mobility, and the role of income expectations on emigration duration spells.

Understanding how trends such as the ageing of the population, changes in family formation and dissolution and increased mobility (spatial, economic and social) are both shaped by and in turn shape international relations and flows of support is essential for assessing the role of the family beyond the household and for debates around intergenerational solidarity and justice. Such areas will be explored through the new cross-cutting theme, explicitly focussed on understanding intergenerational relations and exchange in the context of demographic change. Finally, one of the most notable successes of CPC-I has been in the area of innovative methods and modelling, and CPC-II will continue to work at the cutting edge of developments in demographic modelling, collaborating closely with ONS and other national statistical agencies.

CPC-II will continue its contribution to three areas identified by the ESRC as of key importance: the design of academic research with a consideration for its policy implications and a high impact on the wellbeing of persons in society; the incorporation of a significant capacity-building element in the research programme with the training of emerging social scientists in the multi-disciplinary area of population change; and the exploitation of existing and newly-available sources of quantitative data, some of which are core ESRC investments. Continued engagement with ONS and NRS and other users will ensure our research remains timely and relevant.

Planned Impact

CPC's research activities look to have both academic and societal impact, with our results being taken up and used by policy makers and practitioners. The beneficiaries of CPC research are numerous, and we see our research as having direct and indirect benefits for the whole of society. With this in mind, we have identified the following key beneficiaries:

The research community - this includes the disciplines of demography, economics, geography, gerontology, sociology, social policy and social statistics, but also extends to inter-disciplinary and international research. We plan to maximise the impact of findings by maintaining a strong presence in the research community through participating in conferences, workshops etc. to disseminate and receive research, build networks and utilise knowledge exchange opportunities to progress research and contribute to future discussion.

ONS and NRS - partnering with these organisations ensures CPC's agenda is both informed by and informs the user community. The contribution to improving demographic statistics is mutually beneficial to improving reporting for both ONS and NRS, and improving the basis of CPC's, and wider, research.

The ESRC - CPC research benefits the ESRC by feeding into the agenda to support independent, high quality research which has an impact on business, the public sector and the third sector. CPC research and its dissemination also raises the profile of ESRC as a funding body.

Other Government departments - through dialogue with Chief Scientific Advisors, tailored briefing papers, tailored seminars/ sessions to other senior level staff, the provision of evidence to Select Committees as well as more general dissemination workshops, CPC expects its research to be highly beneficial to a range of Government departments including the Departments for Work & Pension, Business Innovation & Skills, Communities & Local Government, Education, Health, DECC and DfID.

Local authorities - CPC research benefits LAs in providing research findings on migration patterns, employment, fertility trends and the needs of an ageing population which can aid in planning and predicting service needs and requirements. This will be of particular benefit following financial recession with state cutbacks and public services due to change significantly.

Third sector organisations - CPC expects to continue its collaborative work with organisations such as the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, Nuffield Foundation, Age UK, International Longevity Centre UK and Population Europe. Working in collaboration strengthens the impact of the research and resulting messages for getting it into the relevant consciousness.

Other research centres - CPC will continue its close collaborative relationship with other research Centres, such as CRFR, ICLS, COMPAS.

Professional associations - CPC expects to benefit relevant professional associations by supplying research findings and participating in events to further discussion and progress through their forums of debate: conferences, technical meetings, networking events, policy statements, and magazines or journals.

Members of the public - this happens both directly through members of the public gaining a wider understanding and interest in population change through public engagement events. Through work with schools, CPC also hopes to inspire a new generation of researchers, as well as bringing the issues surrounding population change to the attention to a new generation of voters and policy makers. CPC also expects its research to indirectly benefit the general public though policy changes that have come about through CPC's engagement with the various users mentioned above.

Media - CPC has increasingly become a first port of call for journalists looking for evidence on population change, and so the research is beneficial to the media by providing evidence that can substantiate many topical news stories.
 
Title 'Brexit', Eastern Europeans and tactics of belonging 
Description Paper presented by Russell King (University of Sussex and University of Malmö) - co-authored by Aija Lulle (University of Sussex and University of Eastern Finland) - at 'The spectre of 'Brexit': Free movement and European citizenship in question' seminar on 17 June 2016. A one day seminar hosted at the University of Southampton looked at the potential consequences of the EU Referendum from a sociological point of view. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2016 
Impact 363 Views (13 March 2017) 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yp3DMfSN3aI&index=4&list=PLkqOUZN6uhwP4mxOp_aFSCUs8pfmbA6At
 
Title BBC Breakfast Clip 1 - CPC Exhibition: How to Live to 100 - and enjoy it 
Description CPC Director, Professor Jane Falkingham, appears on the live finale of BBC Breakfast's Living Longer series. The special series explores the changing attitudes to old age, and what a society with a growing number of pensioners means for us all. On Friday 16th January 2015, some of the world's leading academics on ageing gathered for a special 40 minute debate, live from the Lowry Theatre on Salford Quays. The backdrop to the exhibition was CPC's How to get to 100 - and enjoy it! exhibition which toured the UK from October 2014 - February 2015. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2015 
Impact The BBC Breakfast show is watched by millions of viewers in the UK. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KULtfgbSao8&list=PLkqOUZN6uhwMTzk62yMr8xDdhemczS2Du&index=1
 
Title BBC Breakfast Clip 2 - CPC Exhibition: How to Live to 100 - and enjoy it 
Description CPC Director, Professor Jane Falkingham, appears on the live finale of BBC Breakfast's Living Longer series. The special series explores the changing attitudes to old age, and what a society with a growing number of pensioners means for us all. On Friday 16th January 2015, some of the world's leading academics on ageing gathered for a special 40 minute debate, live from the Lowry Theatre on Salford Quays. The backdrop to the exhibition was CPC's How to get to 100 - and enjoy it! exhibition which toured the UK from October 2014 - February 2015. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2015 
Impact The BBC Breakfast show is watched by millions of viewers in the UK. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iltws76XxUI&list=PLkqOUZN6uhwMTzk62yMr8xDdhemczS2Du&index=2
 
Title BBC Breakfast Clip 3 - CPC Exhibition: How to Live to 100 - and enjoy it 
Description CPC Director, Professor Jane Falkingham, appears on the live finale of BBC Breakfast's Living Longer series. The special series explores the changing attitudes to old age, and what a society with a growing number of pensioners means for us all. On Friday 16th January 2015, some of the world's leading academics on ageing gathered for a special 40 minute debate, live from the Lowry Theatre on Salford Quays. The backdrop to the exhibition was CPC's How to get to 100 - and enjoy it! exhibition which toured the UK from October 2014 - February 2015. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2015 
Impact The BBC Breakfast show is watched by millions of viewers in the UK. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwcfm1nU1Xg&index=3&list=PLkqOUZN6uhwMTzk62yMr8xDdhemczS2Du
 
Title BBC Breakfast Clip 4 - CPC Exhibition: How to Live to 100 - and enjoy it 
Description CPC Director, Professor Jane Falkingham, appears on the live finale of BBC Breakfast's Living Longer series. The special series explores the changing attitudes to old age, and what a society with a growing number of pensioners means for us all. On Friday 16th January 2015, some of the world's leading academics on ageing gathered for a special 40 minute debate, live from the Lowry Theatre on Salford Quays. The backdrop to the exhibition was CPC's How to get to 100 - and enjoy it! exhibition which toured the UK from October 2014 - February 2015. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2015 
Impact The BBC Breakfast show is watched by millions of viewers in the UK. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UEbroEZ-lM&list=PLkqOUZN6uhwMTzk62yMr8xDdhemczS2Du&index=4
 
Title Bayesian Demography 250 years after Bayes 
Description Jakub Bijak from Centre for Population Change and John Bryant from Statistics New Zealand discuss Bayesian demography. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2016 
Impact 249 Views (10 March 2017) 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSmbUuxywws&list=UUe1EGHJ15DFVTXqBH9UEqBg&index=2
 
Title Belfast - Population Characteristics 
Description Dynamic infographic showing local area statistics for Belfast. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2015 
Impact Infographic used at the CPC Exhibition: How to Live to 100 and enjoy it. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCIw76636eg
 
Title Birmingham - Population Characteristics 
Description Dynamic infographic showing local area statistics for Birmingham. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2015 
Impact Infographic used at the CPC Exhibition: How to Live to 100 and enjoy it. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ikjy0d_Gx8U
 
Title Cardiff - Population Characteristics 
Description Dynamic infographic showing local area statistics for Cardiff. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2015 
Impact Infographic used at the CPC Exhibition: How to Live to 100 and enjoy it. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4JoU6sfv08
 
Title China's Changing Demography is Changing China and the World 
Description This lecture focused on the impact that changes in China's demography over the past few decades could have on the United States, and the rest of the world. This lecture links to CPC's work on Gender Disadvantage, Social Inequalities and Well-being of Economic Migrants in China. The work focused on the extent of social inequalities determining the quality of life of economic migrants in China. On 11 May 2016 Professor Dudley Poston Jr, of Texas A&M University, visited the University of Southampton to present his findings from research he has conducted on changes in China's demography. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2016 
Impact 122 views (10 March 2017) 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=paXLRkLkIXw
 
Title Expense turns to investment: How the welfare state supports EU migrants' economic achievements 
Description Paper presented by Josh Moran (University of Southampton) at 'The spectre of 'Brexit': Free movement and European citizenship in question' seminar on 17 June 2016. A one day seminar hosted at the University of Southampton looked at the potential consequences of the EU Referendum from a sociological point of view. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2016 
Impact 362 Views (13 March 2017) 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzKWFxcwVkU&index=6&list=PLkqOUZN6uhwP4mxOp_aFSCUs8pfmbA6At
 
Title Expense turns to investment:How the welfare state supports EU migrants' economic achievements 
Description This presentation investigates the degree to which the UK's welfare state helps EU migrants enhance their economic activity. How have policy changes post-2014 affected this situation? What would happen if the UK left the EU? This presentation was recorded at the event 'Implications of Brexit for EU migrants' held in Westminster, London on 10 May 2016. Paul Bridgen, Traute Meyer and Joshua Moran, Centre for Population Change. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2016 
Impact To inform opinion ahead of the forthcoming EU referendum, CPC hosted a free public panel debate to discuss the wider issues around our recent research on EU migrants living in the UK, migrants' attitudes to the forthcoming referendum, and the resulting social policy implications. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWyG-a-OODw
 
Title Glasgow - Population Characteristics 
Description Dynamic infographic showing local area statistics for Glasgow. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2015 
Impact Infographic used at the CPC Exhibition: How to Live to 100 and enjoy it. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqJ0KR1HvEc
 
Title How (NOT) to predict migration - Video Summary 
Description 'How (not) to predict migration' with Dr Jakub Bijak, discussing the limitations to reliably predicting types of migration and looking to the benefits of risk management and capacity building to adapt to inevitable, if unpredictable, flows of migrants. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2015 
Impact Raising the profile of CPC Research 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBcFfAhE0GQ
 
Title How (NOT) to predict migration -Speakers Podcast 
Description The session critically looked at different methods used for predicting migration, and explored the underlying challenges and practical recommendations in more detail. It focused on the uncertainty related to defining, estimating and forecasting migration, and on the potential and limitations of using the uncertain migration predictions as an evidence base for making informed policy decisions. Presentations by Jakbub Bijak, Madeline Sumption and Paul Rees recorded at Westminster Briefing on 8 December 2015. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2016 
Impact Raising the profile of CPC Research 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJp_XXVnYcg
 
Title Inter-faces: Female Breadwinners 
Description Interview with Agnese Vitali on female breadwinners on the Population Europe YouTube channel, posted as part of the Inter-Faces video series. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2015 
Impact Raised the profile of CPC researchers. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIWaCQaIBUw
 
Title Is Welfare the magnet that draws the migrants? 
Description This lecture examines evidence that economists call a 'natural experiment': a major policy shock that allows a comparison of people who were affected with people who were not. The lecture focuses on how the 2001 removal of labour market-related social security eligibility affected New Zealand migrants to Australia. UK migrants to Australia, who were not affected by the policy changes, provide a 'control group'. New Zealand migrants arriving after the policy changes were more likely to visit their home country temporarily, or return permanently. Implications of this finding for the case of the European Union will be explored. CPC Seminar presented by Jacques Poot, University of Waikato at CPC on 14th October 2015, Part of the NZ-UK Link Foundation Visiting Professorship Lecture Programme 2015. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2015 
Impact Raising the profile of Migration Reserach 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YEGJA1a_WM
 
Title London - Population Characteristics 
Description Dynamic infographic showing local area statistics for London. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2015 
Impact Infographic used at the CPC Exhibition: How to Live to 100 and enjoy it. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E59yUaQnEPI
 
Title Making immigrants out of citizens 
Description Paper presented by Taulant Guma (Aberystwyth University) at 'The spectre of "Brexit": Free movement and European citizenship in question' seminar on 17 June 2016. A one day seminar hosted at the University of Southampton looked at the potential consequences of the EU Referendum from a sociological point of view. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2016 
Impact 362 Views (13 March 2017) 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frfLKlNtQNk&index=8&list=PLkqOUZN6uhwP4mxOp_aFSCUs8pfmbA6At
 
Title Manchester - Population Characteristics 
Description Dynamic infographic showing local area statistics for Manchester. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2015 
Impact Infographic used at the CPC Exhibition: How to Live to 100 and enjoy it. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oavH_b1FeaU
 
Title Migration and the politics of classification: before and after Brexit 
Description Paper presented by Simone Varriale (University of Warwick) at 'The spectre of 'Brexit': Free movement and European citizenship in question' seminar on 17 June 2016. A one day seminar hosted at the University of Southampton looked at the potential consequences of the EU Referendum from a sociological point of view. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2016 
Impact 363 Views (13 March 2017) 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDhhht7bC9k&index=3&list=PLkqOUZN6uhwP4mxOp_aFSCUs8pfmbA6At
 
Title Migration is one of the worst predictable elements of the puzzle 
Description Interview with Jakub Bijak on migration posted on the Population Europe YouTube channel as part of the Population Europe Inter-Faces video series. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2015 
Impact Raised the profile of CPC research. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3E5SCTup1Y
 
Title Modelling Socio-Economic Differences in the Mortality of Danish Males 
Description Modelling Socio-Economic Differences in the Mortality of Danish Males Using a New Affluence Index. CPC Seminar - Andrew Cairns 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2017 
Impact Raised the profile of CPC researchers and research. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oa8906AAIp8&list=UUe1EGHJ15DFVTXqBH9UEqBg
 
Title Precarious labour markets, precarious social citizenship? 
Description Paper presented by Thanos Maroukis (University of Bath) at 'The spectre of 'Brexit': Free movement and European citizenship in question' seminar on 17 June 2016. A one day seminar hosted at the University of Southampton looked at the potential consequences of the EU Referendum from a sociological point of view. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2016 
Impact 360 Views (13 March 2017) 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKexiDuTYBc&index=7&list=PLkqOUZN6uhwP4mxOp_aFSCUs8pfmbA6At
 
Title Should I stay or should I go? 
Description Paper presented by Chris Moreh (University of Southampton) at 'The spectre of 'Brexit': Free movement and European citizenship in question' seminar on 17 June 2016. A one day seminar hosted at the University of Southampton looked at the potential consequences of the EU Referendum from a sociological point of view. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2016 
Impact 362 Views (13 March 2017) 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBQwoQyxbj4&index=5&list=PLkqOUZN6uhwP4mxOp_aFSCUs8pfmbA6At
 
Title Should I stay or should I go? 
Description What might EU migrants in the UK do in order to cope if the UK leaves the EU? Might they stay or go? Using data from an online survey we find out what the three largest EU nationality groups (Portuguese, Polish and Romanian) in the UK have to say. These three groups represent three different EU enlargement waves, with Portugal having joined the European Union in 1986, Poland in 2004 and Romania in 2007. This presentation was recorded at the event 'Implications of Brexit for EU migrants' held in Westminster, London on 10 May 2016. Derek McGhee, Athina Vlachantoni & Chris Moreh, Centre for Population Change 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2016 
Impact To inform opinion ahead of the forthcoming EU referendum, CPC hosted a free public panel debate to discuss the wider issues around our recent research on EU migrants living in the UK, migrants' attitudes to the forthcoming referendum, and the resulting social policy implications. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_rQ_iUyC78
 
Title Southampton - Population Characteristics 
Description Dynamic infographic showing local area statistics for Southampton. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2015 
Impact Infographic used at the CPC Exhibition: How to Live to 100 and enjoy it. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahwF6b987OA
 
Title The Migration Equation in 'Neo- Liberal' Europe: Perspectives from the North and North-West 
Description Paper presented by Adrian Favell (University of Leeds) at 'The spectre of 'Brexit': Free movement and European citizenship in question' seminar on 17 June 2016. A one day seminar hosted at the University of Southampton looked at the potential consequences of the EU Referendum from a sociological point of view 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2016 
Impact 364 Views (10 March 2017) 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLoK3JQ7j-4&index=1&list=PLkqOUZN6uhwP4mxOp_aFSCUs8pfmbA6At
 
Title Thinking beyond freedom of movement: constellations of privilege in British emigration 
Description Paper presented by Michaela Benson (Goldsmiths, University of London) at 'The spectre of 'Brexit': Free movement and European citizenship in question' seminar on 17 June 2016. A one day seminar hosted at the University of Southampton looked at the potential consequences of the EU Referendum from a sociological point of view 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2016 
Impact 358 Views (10 March 2017) 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=td2lNScFmBc&index=2&list=PLkqOUZN6uhwP4mxOp_aFSCUs8pfmbA6At
 
Title Video on work-life-balance 
Description An interview with Athina Vlachantoni on work-life-balance on the Population Europe YouTube channel as part of the Inter-Faces video series 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2015 
Impact Raised the profile of CPC researchers and research. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UeaMPMqjrQ
 
Title Who are the EU migrants? 
Description Who are EU migrants living in the UK? Should the UK decide to leave the EU in the forthcoming referendum, the impact of social policies on the rights and responsibilities of non-UK European nationals living in the UK could be significant and will vary according to age, employment and family circumstances.This presentation explores the characteristics of EU migrants living in the UK. This presentation was recorded at the event 'Implications of Brexit for EU migrants' held in Westminster, London on 10 May 2016. Jane Falkingham, Maria Evandrou, Zhixin Feng and Athina Vlachantoni, Centre for Population Change 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2016 
Impact To inform opinion ahead of the forthcoming EU referendum, CPC hosted a free public panel debate to discuss the wider issues around our recent research on EU migrants living in the UK, migrants' attitudes to the forthcoming referendum, and the resulting social policy implications. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-Z0AAYVI_E
 
Title YouTube Exhibition Video 
Description YouTube video on the southamptonfshs channel features Dr Sabu Padmadas discussing ageing population, featuring the "How to live to 100 and enjoy it" exhibition. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2014 
Impact Raised the profile of the CPC based exhibition. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0vx88jQyoc
 
Description Research is on-going within all five strands of CPC's scientific programme. Information on the key findings from all our current and completed projects is available on our website www.cpc.ac.uk. Here we outline 1-2 significant highlights within each strand over the period 2016-2017 (previous years are cover by the annual Centre reports submitted to the ESRC).

1. Fertility dynamics in the context of economic recession
Research within the 'Family & Fertility' strand on 'Fertility dynamics in the context of economic recession' has contributed new knowledge to our understanding of the individual, family and macro-level factors driving childbearing trends in the UK and elsewhere in Europe. A recent project by Ann Berrington and Juliet Stone examining the relationships between economic uncertainty and entry into parenthood using panel data from UKHLS found a positive relationship between economic uncertainty and fertility among some sub-groups of the UK population, especially for entry into parenthood among those aged under 25. Among older age groups, economic uncertainty tended to postpone childbearing. The authors argue that these differential effects of economic uncertainty on fertility can be explained in terms of the means-tested welfare system and the importance of uncertainty reduction for low income men and women. Building on this, Ann Berrington, Adriana Duta (Edinburgh) and Paul Wakeling (York) examined the effect of changes in Government legislation (e.g. in relation to welfare benefits, and support for higher education) on the age at which young people are considered financially independent of their parents. Austerity policies (including the increase in minimum age for access to full levels of housing benefit, and minimum wage), together with increases in tuition fees and the move from maintenance grants to loans, have all increased the age at which young people remain financially dependent upon their parents. The research considered how differential access to parental resources may lead to increased inequalities in the ability of young adults to negotiate successful transitions to adulthood. New empirical evidence on inequalities in the timing and type of transitions in young adulthood according to parental social class (using data from BHPS, UKHLS and LFS), support this hypothesis. These empirical analyses were presented to the Social Justice team at DWP (expert round table meeting December 2016) and a case was presented to them that in their policies aimed at reducing inequalities across the life course, young adults needed to be considered as well as children. Thus we were pleased to see that the life course framework adopted by DWP did include measures of inequality / outcome measures up to age 24. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/improving-lives-helping-workless-families-evidence-base.
The publications and numerous presentations undertaken by strand members have had a cumulative impact on several ongoing debates about the impacts of economic recession on fertility and about the main drivers of fertility and family change. Other highlights include work by Albert Sabater and Elspeth Graham (in collaboration with Francisco Viciana from the Institute of Statistics and Cartography of Andalusia and Diego Ramiro from the Spanish Research Council) on Parental Support and Transition to Second Birth in a Low-Fertility Setting: the Case of Andalusia in Spain. This work was presented at the PAA 2017 in Chicago and won the prize for the best poster in Session 8: Fertility, Family Planning, Sexual Behavior, and Reproductive Health.

2. The dynamics of social care and employment in mid-life
Research within the 'Changing Life course' strand by Maria Evandrou, Jane Falkingham, Athina Vlachantoni and Madelin Gomez-Leon has provided new evidence on the relationship between the provision of informal care to older parents/parents-in-law and the employment status of adult children in midlife. Analysis of data for a cohort of individuals born in 1958 in Britain, investigates the impact of caring at age 50 and 55 on employment status at 55, controlling for socio-demographic characteristics, the respondent's health status and their partner's employment status. Different types of care (personal, basic and instrumental support) are distinguished, along with hours of caring. The results highlight that providing care for more personal tasks, and for a higher number of hours, are associated with leaving employment for both men and women carers. In contrast, the negative impact of more intense care-giving on reducing working hours was significant only for men - suggesting that women may juggle intensive care commitments alongside work or leave work altogether. These results, published in Ageing & Society in September 2017, directly inform debates around the potential policy conflict on the one hand of promoting extended working lives and on the other hand of supporting family carers. Facilitating women and men to combine paid work and parental care in mid-life will be increasingly important in the context of rising longevity and the changing life course.

3. Migration, migrants and Brexit
The 'New mobilities and migration' strand encompasses a wide research agenda, from the dynamics of international student migration to mobility and housing over the life course. In the last year research has investigated EU migrants in the UK and how the outcome of the referendum might influence their circumstances and behaviours. A bespoke online survey designed by Derek McGhee, Chris Moheh and Athina Vlachantoni collected information from EU migrants living in the UK, including their intention to return to their home country as well as their attitudes towards the British naturalisation process and the possible consequences of obtaining dual nationality. The majority of the Polish, Romanian and Portuguese respondents in the survey reported their intentions to stay in the UK, regardless of the outcome of the EU Referendum. Such intentions may mean that applications for British citizenship will increase over the next 5 years. There are considerable differences in attitudes between different EU nationality groups, with those from countries that have more recently become part of the EU being most inclined to say that they plan to apply for British citizenship. Further analysis of the survey, published in an article in the Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, highlight that basic socio-economic and demographic factors are inadequate, on their own, to explain future migration and civic integration plans. Instead, we find that aspects such as interest in and awareness of one's rights, as well as anxieties about the ability to maintain one's rights in the future are stronger determinants. This work was discussed with Members of Parliament and other policy officials at a Parliamentary Office for Science and Technology conference in October 2016. As discussions around the rights of EU citizens living in the UK continue, further research in this area is underway, including early analysis of wave 8 of Understanding Society.

4. Residential Age Segregation in Britain
Research within the 'Understanding Intergenerational Relations & Exchange Strand' on 'Residential Age Segregation in Britain' by Albert Sabater, Elspeth Graham and Nissa Finney at CPC-St Andrews suggests that age residential segregation between older (aged 65 and over) and younger adults (aged 25-40) has risen rapidly since the 1990s in the UK context. In other words, within neighbourhoods, on average, there is now less of an age mix than there was in the past. The findings emphasise the notion that age is a feature not just of individuals but also of locales or communities. We find evidence that in the current climate of austerity and reductions in the capacity of local government to provide services and jobs, increasing age segregation can potentially have serious consequences for society and communities, such as fostering distrust, stereotypic thinking, and misunderstanding, which may create the potential for intergenerational conflict. The research was published in the journal Demographic Research and presented at various scientific forums, including the European Population Conference where it received the prize for Best Poster. It was featured in The Conversation and the renowned magazine of the International Union for the Scientific Study of the Population (I-IUSSP) - recognised by policymakers, journalists, businesses and civil society organisations for publishing scientific outcomes on population studies and demographic issues around the globe. In November 2017, an extended feature is due to be published in The Guardian Weekend based on the findings of this project.

5. Improving population modelling and forecasting in the UK
The work within the CPC modelling strand during 2016-2017 has been concentrated in two areas: probabilistic population estimation and forecasting (including papers in Demography, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A and International Journal of Forecasting), and perspectives for agent-based modelling in demography (including several chapters in a state-of-the-art edited volume). In the former area, the team of Peter W.F. Smith, Jakub Bijak, Jon Forster, Erengul Dodd, Jason Hilton and Arek Wisniowski have successfully demonstrated the capability of formal statistical methods to capture different types of uncertainty in the estimates and forecasts. Our work on agent-based modelling, in turn, has led to establishing a future research agenda in this area, and has identified several key methodological principles for further enquiry, which will be explored in a separate ERC-funded project.
Exploitation Route Our research is being used by ONS, the Scottish Government, DWP, the Migration Advisory Committee of the Home Office and other government departments as well as local government, charitable and third sector organisations such as AgeUK and Gingerbread.
Sectors Communities and Social Services/Policy,Healthcare,Government, Democracy and Justice,Security and Diplomacy,Other

URL http://www.cpc.ac.uk
 
Description CPC is committed to ensuring its research reaches a wider audience and contributes to the economic and societal well-being of the UK. The work of the Centre is on going and the impact of its research continues to emerge and evolve. Below we summarise some of the emerging non-academic impacts from each of the research strands over the past 36 months (previous impacts are recorded in annual Centre reports submitted to ESRC pre-ResearchFish). Our research on population modelling and projections is influencing the methodology of official population statistics in the UK and EU. We are working closely with the Office for National Statistics and have recently developed a new method for estimating life tables and forecasting mortality for use in the UK national population projections, which has been implemented (see http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160106044025/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/specific/population-and-migration/demography/index.html). This has the potential to impact upon most people (and their families) living and working in the UK; life tables are used by actuaries and others working in the financial sector to set life insurance premiums and pension annuity rates as well as informing pension fund valuations. In addition to the work with ONS, we have presented our findings at actuarial professional conferences and given keynotes at various international fora, such as at a Eurostat plenary meeting of methodology directors from across the EU. We also organised a session at the Joint Statistical Meetings in 2015 entitled 'Better Demographic Forecasts, Better Policy Decisions', which addressed decision makers about the problem of single number and scenario-based demographic forecasts of uncertainty. Members of the team have also fed in advice locally with regard to the recent University Superannuation Scheme valuation. CPC research and advice has changed the way the UK reports migration statistics to Eurostat. The team successfully guided the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in overhauling their methodologies, finally making them compliant with European Union (EU) regulations. The wider impact of accurate numbers is significant for public service provision, planning, and the UK economy (http://www.cpc.ac.uk/resources/downloads/JB_CPC_report_9.5.13.pdf) and we continue to contribute to methodological innovation in this area, which in turn impacts on policy and practice. We have carried out several pieces of work for the Migration Advisory Committee at the Home Office and have recently (August 2017) produced a report for the European Asylum Support Office (EASO). The study identified, reviewed and assessed the various quantitative models for explaining and predicting asylum-related migration to aid the development of a bespoke European asylum model which meets user need and acts as an 'early warning' for asylum related migration(see https://www.easo.europa.eu/sites/default/files/publications/Quantitative_assessment_of_asylum_related_migration_1.pdf). We have also presented our work on methods and models for forecasting migration to FRONTEX - the EU external borders agency, and participated in the NATO Allied Command Transformation experiment held in Rome 2015. We have given evidence on public policies and return migration at an OECD Conference in Paris. Together this body of work has informed EU thinking in this area, especially during the recent migration crisis. Our modelling team has also worked with the Greater London Authority to incorporate migration into their population projections model, directly influencing the distribution of resources within the capital. Migration is a key research theme within the Centre, extending beyond methodology. We have held meetings with specialists on migration in the House of Commons Library to discuss our research on migration and Brexit, and in particular the citizenship intentions of EU nationals living in the UK. We have also given evidence on migration issues to the House of Commons Scottish Affairs Committee (Feb 2106) in relation to the search for a financial settlement between Westminster and Holyrood. We have also recently worked with ONS and UUK to better understand international student migration to the UK (see http://www.cpc.ac.uk/publications/CPC-ONS-UUK_Survey_of_Graduating_International_Students_2017.pdf), with potential to influence decisions around relaxing recent restrictions on international student's post-study work visas. This emerging impact could significantly affect the competitiveness of UK Higher Education. Our research on later life has been used by AgeUK (see http://www.ageuk.org.uk/Documents/EN-GB/For-professionals/Research/AgeUK-Wellbeing-Index-Summary-web.pdf?dtrk=true) and has informed the Local Government Association (http://www.cpc.ac.uk/publications/Ageing%20Population%20digital.pdf), shaping thinking in the field. We have debated the challenges of Europe's ageing population with Commissioners and MEPs in Brussels and have taken part in debates on pensions at the German Green Party conferences. We have given evidence on saving behaviour to MPs at the SNP Conference and we have spoken to businesses at the Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce. We have contributed to several reports for the Scottish Government, including a report to advise on the future of an ageing population. We were invited to give evidence to the Registrar General's Annual Review, culminating in an invited chapter (https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/stats-at-a-glance/registrar-generals-annual-review). We are currently engaging with Sustainable Uist, a community organisation in the Outer Hebrides, to provide advice and guidance on depopulation. Our work on informal carers has the potential to influence policies and employment practices around work-life balance and extended working lives. Within the fertility and family strand, our work on fertility is informing the assumptions used by the Office for National Statistics to make fertility projections, specifically related to international migration and the timing of childbearing among migrants and natives. Our findings on transitions to adulthood have been used to inform the HEFCE eligibility criteria (see http://www.hefce.ac.uk/media/HEFCE,2014/Content/Pubs/Independentresearch/2015/Investigating,an,age,threshold,for,independence,at,PG,level/2015_pgind.pdf). We have also contributed evidence to the Department for Work and Pensions' Children and Families Strategy Group on the implications of austerity for transition to adulthood, which has been included in a DWP Green Paper. In disseminating our research on new family forms, we have worked with the charity Gingerbread to put on events and share knowledge around lone parenthood. In research looking at families beyond the UK, we have improved within-couple communication about HIV-AIDS in South Africa. The results of this study suggest there are several ways to improve the view of HIV testing within the community, including giving people the opportunity to be tested and receive anti-retroviral therapy treatment and care at home which reduces stigma, and potentially transmission, of HIV-AIDS. In order to ensure our research is relevant, we have held a number of round table events with ministers, aimed at informing policy, including discussions at the House of Lords and the Palace of Westminster. We have contributed knowledge to House of Commons Select Committees and CPC Director, Jane Falkingham is currently the special advisor to the House of Lords Select Committee on Intergenerational Fairness & Provision. To provide to capacity building in the field of demographic studies we have designed and run bespoke courses including one on Bayesian statistics for the Office for National Statistics and a yearly summer school on the economics of migration (3 years running). We have contributed to other short courses, including one on agent-based modelling in demography for practitioners. We have produced materials for, held lectures at, and carried out reports for, school, colleges and youth groups. Population change affects us all and a key aim of the Centre as been to improve the 'demographic literacy' of the UK. To this end, we have spoken to the public at events in coffee houses, pubs and community centres through ESRC Festival of Social Science events, Pint of Science, TedX and a plethora of other forums. We have participated in the University of Southampton Roadshow, including in Summer 2017 and 2018 taking an exhibition on migration and population change to Countryfile Live, amongst other venues, to provide an evidence base to inform the current Brexit debate. We also recently represented UKRI at the 2019 AAAS in Washington DC.
First Year Of Impact 2014
Sector Communities and Social Services/Policy,Education,Healthcare,Government, Democracy and Justice,Security and Diplomacy,Other
Impact Types Societal,Economic,Policy & public services

 
Description 'How to get to 100 - and enjoy it': Engaging the public with population science
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact In a major collaborative project between CPC, Population Europe and the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, we helped the UK public understand the causes and consequences of population change. Motivated by the knowledge that significant population issues affecting every individual's life are often hard for the public to distinguish behind abstract figures like the number of births, the mortality rate, or net migration, this project used hands-on approaches to showcase cutting-edge demographic research, shape public opinion and instil new knowledge. Building on a multidisciplinary body of research from CPC and our partners in the Population Europe Network, we highlighted the implications of living longer for work, health and family life through an exhibition, website and educational resources. To reach as many people as possible we toured the exhibition to seven cities in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and culminated with an event at the European Parliament. Over 5,000 visitors, from school children to pensioners, discovered how demographic research is relevant to their own lives. By hosting the exhibition in shopping centres, galleries and museums members of the public from all walks of life were able to engage with the research and ask questions about the topics it covered. Teachers, school children and youth groups took advantage of our education programme which included guided talks by CPC staff, Key Stage 4 workbooks (created with advice from education experts), and online resources which complement in school lessons. Stakeholders, practitioners, decision makers and local media exchanged ideas at our customised private view events held in each of the seven UK locations. These featured invited speakers and discussed social and policy issues about the significance of the research for the local area. One in five visitors took part in our evaluation, with 88% reporting an increased knowledge and 90% saying they felt differently about the issues raised. A before and after test showed pupils were more likely to correctly answer population questions after visiting/using materials: "I now know that I can change my life expectancy through my lifestyle choices." (Student). Of our stakeholders 92% said they were likely to discuss the issues raised with colleagues and 84% said they were likely to use what they learnt in their professional practice. The project provoked dialogue on the choices needed to manage the pressing issues triggered by ageing. Furthermore, we started a conversation with decision-makers both nationally and within the European Parliament, stimulating them to think holistically about the influence of ageing on the whole life-course. The research featured on local TV, radio and press. The project inspired BBC Breakfast to create a 'Living Longer' series over one week of broadcasting. CPC supplied the BBC with information for the feature, culminating in the exhibition appearing live alongside an interview with Jane Falkingham. It reached 7 million viewers, providing a unique example of how research can impact the public discourse.
URL http://www.liveto100.cpc.ac.uk/home/
 
Description 2014-based National Population Projections
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact The work from this project, and my participation as Expert Advisor to the National Population Projections team at the Office for National Statistics helped set sensible assumptions for the variant projections e.g. in fertility.
URL https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/com...
 
Description AgeUK Index of Wellbeing in later Life
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact CPC's Professor Asghar Zaidi has contributed to the methodology & development of a new Index of Wellbeing in Later Life in collaboration with AgeUK, finding that taking part in social activities has the most direct influence on improving a person's wellbeing in later life. Activities such as; going to a cinema, museum or historical site; taking part in arts events; being a member of a social or sports club; or engaging in a community or voluntary group are all beneficial. The new Index of Wellbeing in Later Life examines different aspects of people's lives in five key areas - social, personal, health, financial and environmental - analysing data from 15,000 people aged 60 and over, to measure the wellbeing of the UK's older population. Overall it shows there is not one simple answer, rather a whole host of factors under each of the key areas that play an important part in contributing to a person's sense of wellbeing. Other factors found to have an influence include; having an open personality and being willing to try out new things; being physically active; having a good memory and thinking skills; and having a good social network and lots of warm relationships. Interestingly, the Index found that 'creative activities' had the most direct influence, with older people benefitting from activities such as dancing, playing a musical instrument, visiting museums, photography, singing, painting and writing. NB Dr Marcus Green, the AgeUK Director of Research and lead author of the report, is a former ESRC PhD student who was part of CPC-I supervised by CPC Directors Profs Maria Evandrou & Jane Falkingham, illustrating the capacity building impact of CPC.
URL https://www.ageuk.org.uk/our-impact/policy-research/age-uk-index-of-wellbeing-in-later-life/
 
Description Athina Vlachantoni attended House of Lords Select Committee on Intergenerational Fairness and Provision 16 October 2018
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
 
Description Brienna Perelli-Harris appointed Family Topic Champion for Understanding Society. Will be advising on survey questions related to family and fertility.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
URL https://www.understandingsociety.ac.uk/about/team
 
Description Cridland review of the State Pension Age (DWP)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/state-pension-age-review
 
Description Culture, Tourism, Europe and External Relations Committee, Scottish Parliament
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact Robert Wright gave oral evidence to the Tourism, Europe and External Relations Committee in Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh on "Immigration Post-BREXIT", November 22, 2016
 
Description David Bell - evidence on Gender Pay Gap to Scottish Parliament
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact David Bell and Tanya Wilson presented evidence on the Gender Pay Gap in Scotland to the Economy, jobs and fair work committee at Scottish Parliament on the 25th April 2017.
URL https://www.rse.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/AP17-07.pdf
 
Description David Bell member of Expert Advisory group on Migration and Population to the Scottish Government
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact .
 
Description EASO implementation of a quantitative early warning system for asylum-related migration
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a national consultation
Impact .
URL https://www.easo.europa.eu/sites/default/files/publications/Quantitative_assessment_of_asylum_relate...
 
Description Economic data evidence in Scottish Parliament
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact CPC member Professor David Bell (Stirling University) gave evidence on economic data to the Economy, jobs and fair work committee at Scottish Parliament on the 3rd October 2017.
URL http://www.parliament.scot/S5_EconomyJobsFairWork/Meeting%20Papers/20170903_Papers_for_Meeting.pdf
 
Description Economy, Jobs and work Committee, Scottish Parliament
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact Robert Wright gave oral evidence to the Economy, Jobs and Work Committee in Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh on "Immigration Policy", November 22, 2016
 
Description Elspeth Graham gave expert evidence to the House of Lords Select Committee on Intergenerational Fairness and Provision
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
URL https://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/intergenerational-fairness...
 
Description Evidence on young adults' household formation informing DCLG Household Projections
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact The work has informed the assumptions made by DCLG in making their 2012-based household projections.
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-household-projections
 
Description Expert panel on the evaluation of quality of national academic journals
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Jakub Bijak was a member of the Expert panel on the evaluation of quality of national academic journals in 2015. This was a panel commissioned by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education, Poland and the Polish Academy of Sciences: Division I - Social Sciences and Humanities.
 
Description Finance Committee, Scottish Parliament, June 2014 - David Bell
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact Professor David Bell provided evidence for pensions in an independent Scotland to the Finance Commitee of the Scottish Parliament on the 18th June 2014.
 
Description Greater London Authority Subnational Population Projections methodology
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact Jason Hilton, Jakub Bijak and Jon Forster of the CPC modelling team were commissioned to validate the Greater London Authority's Subnational Population Projections methodology. Their findings were then presented at the Strategic Spatial Planning Officer Liaison Group meeting held at the London Councils on the 9th November 2016 and also written in the report "Independent review of population projection methodology of the Greater London Authority." The team found a number of 'bugs' in the GLA model which have been corrected as a result of the collaboration with CPC. By improving the population projections of the GLA this will improve planning with the capital and may also impact upon the distribution of any resources which are based on population estimates.
URL https://files.datapress.com/london/dataset/projection-methodology-independent-review/2017-01-26T18:5...
 
Description Health and Sport Committee, Scottish Parliament, November 2014 - David Bell
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact David Bell provided evidence for the implications of the 2015-16 Draft Budget for health and social care in Scotland to the Health and Sport Committee at Scottish Parliament on the 28th November 2014.
 
Description Hill Kulu - membership of the Expert and Advisory group on Migration and Population for the Scottish Government
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact .
 
Description Improving the understanding of the impact of Brexit on the Scottish Budget
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact CPC member Prof David Bell provided evidence on "The Impact of Brexit on the Scottish Budget" to the Finance and Constitution Committee in Scottish Parliament on the 27th September 2017.
URL http://www.parliament.scot/S5_Finance/Meeting%20Papers/Agenda_and_Papers_-_27_September_2017.pdf
 
Description Informing the public debate around the implications of Brexit for EU migrants
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact Following receipt of additional funding under the ESRC 'UK in a changing Europe initiative', CPC has engaged in a number of KE activities. To inform opinion ahead of the forthcoming EU referendum, on 10th May 2016 CPC hosted a free public panel debate at the Abbey Centre in Westminster to discuss the wider issues around our recent research on EU migrants living in the UK, migrants' attitudes to the forthcoming referendum, and the resulting social policy implications. The panel was chaired by Mark Mardell Presenter, BBC Radio 4 World this Weekend and attended by over 150 members of the public including sixth formers from local schools. Following the referendum, CPC hosted a policy roundtable event: 'Tales of Migration', in collaboration with Public Policy Southampton, at the Palace of Westminster, with a lunch hosted by Hilary Benn MP.The roundtable discussed recent research findings as part of a project 'Tales of migration: citizenship, benefits and identity in Brexit Britain', which is part of the UK in a Changing Europe initiative. Following the referendum on the UK's membership of the EU, the topic of migration from other EU countries and free movement has been highlighted as critical and policy-relevant. The debate has also reflected concerns about an overstretched welfare system and alleged benefit tourism. But who are the EU migrants living in the UK, who will arguably be among those most immediately and directly affected by the outcome of the referendum? How have policy changes discussed in the run-up to the referendum already changed EU migrants' entitlements, and how might this affect their economic contribution to the British economy? What coping strategies do EU migrants themselves envisage as the UK leaves the EU? In order to address this evidence gap, research has been undertaken by the Centre for Population Change to provide an independent source of information and insight about UK-EU relations. The policy roundtable aimed to provide key stakeholders with the opportunity to engage in the policy implications of this research, and to draw together expertise around the issue, in the crucial period during which we define our priorities for Brexit. Further work forming part of the 'Tales of migration: citizenship, benefits and identity in Brexit Britain', includes important research video podcasts by some of CPC's most esteemed academics on the subject of migration: 'Who is a typical migrant in the UK today?' by Professor Jane Falkingham 'Can migration be fully controlled?' by Dr Jakub Bijak 'Should EU migrants get benefits after Brexit?' by Dr Paul Bridgen 'How much are UK migrants worth?' by Dr Hector Calvo Pardo 'Does migration make us happy?' by Dr Corrado Giulietti 'Will EU migrants stay or leave the UK after Brexit?' by Professor Derek McGhee Also available are CPC Briefing Papers and Blogs: CPC Briefing Paper 'Who are EU migrants in England and Wales?' CPC Briefing Paper 'How to forecast international migration' CPC Briefing Paper 'Expense turns to investment: How the welfare state supports EU migrants' economic achievements' CPC Briefing Paper 'Should I stay or should I go? Strategies of EU citizens living in the EU in the context of the EU referendum' New CPC Blog hosted by The UK in a Changing Europe by Dr Corrado Giulietti 'Immigration and happiness in the UK' New CPC Blog hosted by Public Policy Southampton by Professor Jane Falkingham 'How Brexit impacts families in the UK' New CPC Blog hosted by Public Policy Southampton by Dr Jakub Bijak 'Migration: Illusion of prediction, illusion of control'
URL https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLZr776j0mVNBRdRCeXiUaBe2kEN6Ds7fq
 
Description Jane Falkingham appointed member of the ESRC Council
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact .
URL http://www.esrc.ac.uk/news-events-and-publications/news/news-items/new-appointments-to-esrc-council-...
 
Description Member, National Advisory Board, Horizon 2020 Project: Young People in their Life Course (YOUNG_ADULLT)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Robert Wright has been a member of the National Advisory Board, Horizon 2020 Project: Young People in their Life Course (YOUNG_ADULLT) since February 2016.
 
Description Migration Advisory Committee (MAC)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Jackie Wahba has been a non executive board member to the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) since December 2012.
 
Description Migration in the Nation - Public Engagement with migration research through the University of Southampton Roadshow
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact Using the already established framework of the University of Southampton Roadshow, CPC designed an exhibit to translate complex migration research into interesting, understandable knowledge that was interactive and attractive for the public. Following the referendum, which widely reported inaccurate figures, CPC undertook this public engagement project to reconnect the public with both researchers (experts) and evidence-based research on migration and Brexit. The research, previously funded under the ESRC 'UK in a changing EU' additional activity call, investigated the characteristics of EU migrants, what they do and their attitudes are to a changing Europe. To appeal to a wide audience, from young children through to adolescents and adults the exhibit used games that taught fundamental terms used in migration reporting, such as migrant, refugee, asylum seeker as well as activities for the public to explore more detailed findings of our studies, for example citizenship rights and bi-national partnerships. The games helped people make sense of migration; what it is, the numbers, and what some of the positive and negative effects of migration might be. It opened up a dialogue with people about what Brexit might mean for their neighbourhoods and local communities, for example in terms of diversity, housing, public services and the economy - all issues which have been debated during the course of the referendum and which our research adds insight into. We provided takeaway activities (paper-based games such as a wordsearch) as well as key facts 'collectable' cards which visitors could take away to do in their own time. This gave them a chance to discuss the research findings and facts about migration with their friends and family and added an aspect of reflection and revision to the exhibition. Visiting Cheltenham Science Festival, Thomas Hardye School Dorset, Glastonbury, Winchester Science Festival, Bournemouth Air Show and BBC Countryfile Live we engaged with over 3,300 families, adults and children. Using games we educated children who commented; 'People might come here for education, jobs and because there could be a war' and 'I found out today that migration is when people move from one country to another for different reasons'. Adults said 'I found out today that EU Migrants do not have the same rights to benefits as UK born nationals' and 'Many of my opinions were misconceptions, this makes you think'. Nearly all of those who visited our stand (95% of people surveyed) said they learnt something new. About half of our visitors said 'there are fewer EU migrants in the UK than I thought' and 50% were surprized at how skilled EU migrants are. Interestingly, people were coming back to the stand a second time to test themselves on their memory of facts and young children were coming back with their friends to get them to have a go at the games, indicating a good level of interaction and rapport. By sharing this factual research, we influenced participants' levels of understanding and empathy for EU migrants as described in the ESRC Brexit priority area 'Citizens' expectations on Brexit outcomes'. By increasing understanding of our migration research we have worked towards reducing stereotypical perceptions among the members of public we spoke to, and replace prejudice with facts.
URL http://www.cpc.ac.uk/latest_news/?action=story&id=580
 
Description NRS Knowledge Exchange Data Collection Tools
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact over the lifetime of the Centre, members of CPC KE team have developed a range of tools to measure the impact of their events. Following communication between the CPC Research Manager, Teresa McGowan, and Ester Roughsedge at the National Records of Scotland, NRS are now using CPC knowledge exchange data collection tools to measure the impact of their events.
 
Description ONS & UUK Survey of Graduating International Students
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact CPC worked with ONS and UUK to design and then implement an online survey of international students in their final year. The online survey collected detailed information from international students in UK higher education during their final year of study in 2017. The report of the 2017 Survey of Graduating International Students Technical Report written by CPC formed part of the Office for National Statistics quarterly migration release(Thursday, 24th August 2017). The results of the Survey provided valuable information about the post-study intentions of international students, the certainty of these intentions, their travel patterns, use of public services, and working patterns whilst studying. A follow-up survey is now being planned and will feed into the MAC review of international students commissioned by the Home Secretary Rt. Hon Amber Rudd MP.
URL https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bu...
 
Description ONS Analysis of Twitter Data
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact CPC member, Dr Jennifer Holland, worked with the ONS on an Analysis of Twitter Data pilot project (TWIT1), providing expert advice to the ONS team. Jennifer also benefitted from a small grant from the UoS Web Science Institute.
URL https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/programmesandprojects/theonsbigdataproject
 
Description ONS English Life Table No.17
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Jakub Bijak, Erengul Dodd, Jon Forster and Peter WF Smith from the CPC modelling team developed a new methodology for the construction of the English Life Table No.17 for the ONS in September 2015.The new approach has resulted in improved estimates of mortality particularly at older ages.. The new methodology is described in detail in a technical note that was published by ONS. ONS then commissioned CPC to prepare the English Life Table No. 17, 2010-2012. This work has the potential for very significant reach and impact. Life tables provide analysis of the mortality experience of a population and are used to calculate average life expectancy. Life expectancy is then used as an key indicator of the health of the nation and to inform policy regarding state pension age, as well as to assess risk for life assurance and pension liability. Within ONS, life tables are used to inform the assumptions of future mortality for the National Population Projections. They are also used extensively by other government departments such as Government Actuary's Department, Department of Work and Pensions, Department of Health and Health Authorities, National Records of Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, and Welsh Assembly, and HM Treasury as well as by many private sector organisations, including financial advisors/consultants, insurance companies and actuarial professions. By improving the underlying data, the research has the potential to affect virtually all members of UK society who have a pension or life insurance policy. NB The new life tables were used as Evidence in the Cridland Review of State Pension Age in 2017 (see other impact entry).
URL https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bullet...
 
Description Participation in advisory committee - 2016 based Naitonal Population Projections. ONS
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact The national population projections provide the basis for national and local government planning e.g. in terms of infrastructure e.g. roads, housing and services, e.g. hospitals and schools. Ongoing
URL https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/com...
 
Description Prof Jackie Wahba reappointed to the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) until November 2020
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact .
 
Description Projections of health care usage for Bademoch and Strathspey
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a national consultation
Impact CPC member, Dr Alan Marshall (St Andrews) provided expert advice in 2016 to NHS Highland on projections of health care usage for Bademoch and Strathspey. The projections built upon Alan's research on the development of quantitative techniques to derive small area estimates and projections of population and population characteristics (such as disability and ill health) which he has shared with local planners through the POPGROUP population projection software.
 
Description Projections of health care usage for Skye and Lochalsh
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a national consultation
Impact .CPC member, Dr Alan Marshall (St Andrews) provided expert advice in 2017 to NHS Highland on projections of health care usage for Skye and Lochalsh. The projections built upon Alan's research on the development of quantitative techniques to derive small area estimates and projections of population and population characteristics (such as disability and ill health) which he has shared with local planners through the POPGROUP population projection software.
 
Description Public Administration Select Committee (PASC) February 2014 - Jane Falkingham
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact Jane Falkingham gave evidence at the House of Commons to the Public Administration Select Committee (PASC) on the 25th February 2014.
URL http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/public-administration-sel...
 
Description Research on changing transition to adulthood and inequalities in transition to adulthood used to inform DWP Green Paper on life course inequalities and social justice
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
 
Description Royal Society of Edinburgh expert panel
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact Allan Findlay presented "Demography trends in Scotland and its implications for the fiscal framework between the UK and Scottish Governments" to the Royal Society of Edinburgh expert panel in preparation of a written response to the House of Commons Scottish Affairs Committee on "Demography and Devolution" Advice Paper 16-04. This took place on the 17th February 2016.
 
Description Scotland's Census Sponsoring Board for the 2021 Census
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact David Bell is the only academic member appointed to Scotland's Census Sponsoring Board for the 2021 Census. This is ongoing from 01/01/2017.
 
Description Scottish Affairs Committee - David Bell
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact David Bell attended an expert witness session for the Scottish Affairs Committee at Scottish Parliament on the 18th April 2016.
URL http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/scottish-affairs-co...
 
Description Scottish Affairs Committee, April 2016 - Alasdair Rutherford
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact Alasdair Rutherford attended an expert witness session for the Scottish Affairs Committee at Scottish Parliament on the 27th April 2016.
 
Description Scottish Affairs Committee, June 2016 - Allan Findlay
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact Allan Findlay attended an expert witness session for the Scottish Affairs Committee at Scottish Parliament on the 29th June 2016.
URL http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/scottish-affairs-co...
 
Description Scottish Government Migration Strategy Unit - November 2016
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact Allan Findlay, Elspeth Graham and Laura Prazeres presented CPC research relating to migration and Brexit to members of the Scottish Government Migration Strategy Unit and NRS members at Ladywell House, Edinburgh. The meeting took place on the 16th November 2016.
 
Description Scottish Government Migration Strategy Unit June 2016
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact Alan Findlay presented "The relevance of understanding new mobility to planning for Scottish Coastal Populations" to 40 members of the Scottish Government at Victoria Quay, Edinburgh on the 20th June 2016.
 
Description Scottish Science Advisory Council
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Elspeth Graham was a member of the Scottish Science Advisory Council Working Group on Ageing and contributed to a report for the Scottish Government on "Reaction to the UK Government Office for Science Foresight report "Future of an Ageing Population"", August-December 2016.
 
Description Scottish Science Advisory Council Working Group on Ageing
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Elspeth Graham has been a member of the Scottish Science Advisory Council Working Group on Ageing since 2016.
 
Description Select Committee on Economic Affairs
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact Robert Wright gave Oral Evidence to the Select Committee on Economic Affairs at the House of Lords in London on "BREXIT and the Labour Market", 28 February 2017.
 
Description Social Care for Older People: A sustainable future at the Scottish Parliament - Presentation by David Bell on future finances
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
 
Description Steering group for the Economics of Social and Health Care Research Unit
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact David Bell was a member of the steering group for the Economics of Social and Health Care Research Unit at LSE.
 
Description Steering group for the Nuffield-funded CASPeR project
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact David Bell was a member of the steering group for the Nuffield-funded CASPeR project which worked on modelling the interaction of changes in pension regulations and long-term care funding. This is ongoing.
 
Description Sue Heath invited to give evidence to the House of Lords Select Committee on Intergenerational Fairness and Provision on Tuesday 20 November in relation to CPC project
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
URL https://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/intergenerational-fairness...
 
Description Sustainable Uist
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact CPC members Elspeth Graham and David McCollum are engaging with Sustainable Uist, a community organisation in the Outer Hebrides, to provide advice and guidance on their Depopulation Survey project, December 2016 to present.
 
Description The Preventative Agenda in Health and Social Care: A Paper for the Scottish Parliament's Health and Sport Committee
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact David Bell presented the paper "The Preventative Agenda in Health and Social Care: A Paper for the Scottish Parliament's Health and Sport Committee" with Elaine Douglas to the Health and Sport Committee on the 21st March 2017.
URL http://www.parliament.scot/S5_HealthandSportCommittee/Inquiries/PA066_University_of_Stirling.pdf
 
Description UK Statistics Authority
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact David Bell gave consultation on UK monitoring review on income and earnings to the UK Statistics Authority in September 2014.
 
Description Welfare Reform Committee, Scottish Parliament, December 2014 - David BEll
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact David Bell provided evidence for the implications of welfare reform in Scotland to the Welfare Reform Committee, Scottish Parliament on the 28th November 2014.
 
Description "'Adolescents in Context: The characteristics of adolescents across household, community, school and HIV treatment and care settings in rural KwaZulu-Natal' Healthy Adolescents and Young Adults (HAYA) Centre/Africa Centre/LSHTM"
Amount £39,180 (GBP)
Organisation Viiv Healthcare 
Sector Private
Country United Kingdom
Start 11/2015 
End 08/2017
 
Description "'DISC-SA - A Study of Disability in Children and Adolescents in a rural South African Population' Healthy Adolescents and Young Adults (HAYA) Centre/Africa Centre/LSHTM"
Amount £39,180 (GBP)
Funding ID ARCP000468 ITCRZF51 
Organisation Viiv Healthcare 
Sector Private
Country United Kingdom
Start 11/2015 
End 08/2017
 
Description A sequential sampling and estimation framework for social media data
Amount £109,803 (GBP)
Organisation Defence Science & Technology Laboratory (DSTL) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 09/2016 
 
Description A sociology of 'Brexit': citizenship, belonging and mobility in the context of the British referendum on EU membership
Amount £6,000 (GBP)
Organisation The Sociological Review Publication Ltd. 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 06/2016 
End 06/2017
 
Description Ageing and well-being in a globalizing world
Amount £107,370 (GBP)
Funding ID ES/K005979/1 
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 10/2012 
End 03/2016
 
Description BAPS - Bayesian Agent-based Population Studies: Transforming Simulation Models of Human Migration
Amount € 1,455,590 (EUR)
Organisation European Research Council (ERC) 
Sector Public
Country Belgium
Start 06/2017 
End 05/2021
 
Description Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance (CERF)
Amount £10,000 (GBP)
Organisation University of Cambridge 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description Demographic changes in the era of Brexit: what does local industry need to know?
Amount £43,196 (GBP)
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 02/2017 
 
Description ESRC CALLS Hub 'Extending the reach of UK census longitudinal studies'
Amount £93,013 (GBP)
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 08/2012 
End 07/2017
 
Description ESRC Knowledge Exchange bid for exhibition Brussels 'How to get to 100 and enjoy it'
Amount £21,985 (GBP)
Funding ID ES/K007394/1 
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2016 
End 09/2016
 
Description ESRC Review of Longitudinal Studies
Amount £6,122 (GBP)
Funding ID ES/K007394/1 
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 08/2017 
End 09/2017
 
Description ESRC SDAI Have Socio-Economic Inequalities in Childhood Cognitive Test Scores Changed? A Secondary Analysis of Three British Birth Cohorts
Amount £118,114 (GBP)
Funding ID ES/N011783/1 
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2016 
End 03/2017
 
Description ESRC SDAI Understanding quality of life and well-being of older people - Case studies of China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh
Amount £158,613 (GBP)
Funding ID ES/L014084/1 
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2015 
End 12/2016
 
Description ESRC-DFID call Migration and the Reshaping of Consumption Patterns
Amount £390,356 (GBP)
Funding ID ES/L015684/1 
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 02/2015 
End 07/2018
 
Description ESS ERIC Academic Publishing Workshops: "Going beyond the country: Exploring sub-national effects on socio-demographic phenomena with ESS data"
Amount £5,250 (GBP)
Funding ID 4500146007 
Organisation European Social Survey: European Research Infrastructure Consortium (ESS ERIC) 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country European Union (EU)
Start 01/2017 
End 02/2018
 
Description Economic change and internal population dynamics: an innovative study of new residential mobilities in Scotland
Amount £174,989 (GBP)
Funding ID ES/N011430/1 
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2016 
End 10/2017
 
Description Encourage use and development of population projections by Local Authorities
Amount £5,000 (GBP)
Organisation National Records of Scotland 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 08/2017 
 
Description Evaluating the effect of Community Mental Health services on the lives of people with mental health problems in England over a time of economic insecurity
Amount £250,000 (GBP)
Funding ID OPD/42729 
Organisation Nuffield Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 12/2017 
End 10/2022
 
Description Evaluation of existing migration forecasting methods and models
Amount £42,070 (GBP)
Organisation Home Office 
Department Home Office Scientific Development Branch
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description Extending our understanding of informal care provision in mid-life in the UK by linking qualitative and quantitative data from the National Child Development Study
Amount £154,290 (GBP)
Funding ID ES/P001947/1 
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 05/2017 
End 04/2019
 
Description Extension to the funding for the Census and Administrative Data Longitudinal Studies Hub (CALLS Hub)
Amount £58,013 (GBP)
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description Family Complexity and Cohabitation in Comparative Context
Amount £458,350 (GBP)
Organisation Swedish Research Council 
Sector Public
Country Sweden
Start  
 
Description Family lives of children of immigrants in Norway
Amount £57,701 (GBP)
Organisation Research Council of Norway 
Sector Public
Country Norway
Start  
 
Description Female Breadwinner Families in Europe
Amount £153,957 (GBP)
Funding ID ES/N00082X/1 
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2016 
End 01/2019
 
Description From Models to Decisions (M2D)
Amount £347,992 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/P016774/1 
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2017 
End 12/2018
 
Description Funding for 'How to get to 100 & enjoy it!' exhibition (original tour)
Amount £256,532 (GBP)
Funding ID ES/K007394/1 
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description Funding to take "How to Live to be 100 and Enjoy it" exhibition to Northern Ireland
Amount £18,487 (GBP)
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description Global Ageing and Long-Term Care Network
Amount £126,781 (GBP)
Funding ID ES/P006779/1 
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2017 
End 11/2018
 
Description HEFCE
Amount £43,000 (GBP)
Organisation Higher Education Funding Council for England 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2015 
End 07/2015
 
Description How does financial information flow through a social network
Amount £8,576 (GBP)
Organisation Europlace Institute of Finance 
Sector Academic/University
Country France
Start 11/2015 
End 12/2016
 
Description Impact of the Syrian refugee influx on Jordan
Amount £260,000 (GBP)
Organisation The British Academy 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description Impacts of pensions on multiple dimensions of poverty, subjective wellbeing and solidarity across generations
Amount £404,130 (GBP)
Funding ID ES/N014510/1 
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Department ESRC-DFID Joint Fund
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2017 
End 06/2019
 
Description Improving the public understanding of the implications of Brexit for migration and migrants
Amount £35,300 (GBP)
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2017 
End 11/2017