SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY IN EGYPT: A CRUCIAL POINT FOR THE COUNTRY: A CRUCIAL TEST CASE FOR COMPARATIVE POLITICS

The current political dynamics in Egypt are of huge importance to the stability of the country and the Middle East as a whole. Egypt is not just the most populous and culturally the most influential Arab country, whose success as a democracy (and its mode of transition or failure) would have powerful diffusion effects across the region. It is also a cornerstone for stability in the region, having been the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel.

The removal of President Morsi by the Egyptian Army following mass public protests against his rule raises profound questions about the democratic commitments of Egyptian citizens, the future of democracy in Egypt, and the future of 'electoral Islamism', both in Egypt and beyond. There is an urgent need to collect data on Egyptian public opinion at this crucial point in the country's political transition in order to address these questions.

Immediately following the parliamentary elections of 2011, a privately funded survey of citizens conducted by the applicants produced three results of great relevance to the present political situation. First, Egyptian public opinion appeared overwhelmingly supportive of democracy as the best way of running the country. Second, differences between supporters of different parties were minimal. A third feature of public opinion at that time, however, illustrated clearly the nature of the country's current democratic cross-roads. Overall, we found very strong levels of support for a 'guardian army', including among a majority of Muslim Brotherhood supporters.

Clearly - and this is the nub of the set of issues we propose to investigate - Egyptian public opinion and party representation cannot now hold on the lines of 2011. But, we ask, in what directions are they breaking? From one angle, this may be the moment at which many Egyptians give up a belief in the very democratic principles they called for during the 2011 revolution (that power is transferred through elections, that the military keeps out of politics, that respect for human rights is universal even for those whom some might see as Islamist extremists). From a different angle, the several millions who took to the streets to call for Morsi to resign seemed to be applying, in effect, support for democracy in a format not restricted by the formalities of calling for elections, running a campaign, casting votes and announcing results.

The answers are crucial to the democratic future and governability of the country and for the future of 'electoral Islamism'. Consequently, we will conduct two further mass surveys of the Egyptian public - one to be conducted immediately funding and is assured and fieldwork possible, a second to be conducted when elections take place - to investigate how attitudes have changed since the period when Islamists won legislative and presidential elections. Given the broad political and economic importance of the knowledge that our project will produce for a range of user communities - governments, businesses, NGOs, and opinion leaders in the UK and internationally - we will engage in the widest possible dissemination and outreach activities and produce a unique and publicly accessible data set that may be the basis and anchor for further survey research in Egypt.

The immediate and medium-term future of Egypt is of considerable importance to the democratic development and security of the Middle East. The aim of the research is to contribute to knowledge about the contemporary political situation in Egypt in order to shed light on the possible trajectories of the country's regime development and political stability. The beneficiaries of the research, therefore, are all those - national government officials and policy makers, NGO's, opinion leaders and the public in general - who have an interest and stake in understanding Egypt's political trajectory. They will benefit from the research through consumption of the academic outputs and publications, engagement of the investigators with stakeholders through various outlets - interactive blog discussion, symposia and conferences, presentations and briefings to officials and the press, and through the public availability of the data on the completion of the project.

Specific beneficiaries include:
- The UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office, with which we have contact through HM Ambassador to Egypt James Watt.
- The UK Ministry of Defence, with which we have contact via Lt-General Simon Mayall, Defence Senior Advisor to the Middle East.
- The UK Department for International Development, with which we have contact through Sam Grout-Smith of the Arab Partnerships project at the British Embassy in Egypt.
- Egyptian and international media and newspapers, including Al-Hayat TV Network, Shorouk, Wall Street Journal, USA Today.
- British businesses with interests in Egypt and the broader Middle East who wish to understand the direction in which Egyptian public opinion is heading. We will engage with The British Egyptian Business Association, based in Cairo, with which we have contact through Executive Director Nadia Lamloum. We will also engage with the British Chamber of Commerce, with which we have contact through the Chief Executive, Dr Afnan al-Shuaiby.
- Financial and investment organizations with strategies in the region,. These include Chris Rokos, founding partner of the hedge fund Brevan Howard (who funded our 2011 survey) and Olivier Meyohas, Managing Director at Blackstone.
- Consultancies and business intelligence firms with strong regional interests who may wish to feed elements of our results to their clients. We would send briefings to firms such as Hakluyt, GPW, MENAS Associates, Stratfor, Observatory and Greenmantle.
- UK and international press and media, which we will contact and engage with the assistance of the Reuter's Institute for the Study of Journalism (a Centre in the Department) and the University Press Office
- The public, including citizens of the UK and Egypt and beyond, whom we will engage via the Department's highly successful blog, 'Politics In-Spires', our website where we will post working papers and the email lists and the lecture series of the British-Egyptian Society (chaired by Baroness Symons) on whose Board project collaborator, Dr Elisabeth Kendall, sits.

We anticipate, therefore, making an immediate impact by presenting key headline findings to stakeholders and via the press within four months of the project's commencement. Impact will roll out across the duration of the project, as working papers are made available online, presentations are made to stakeholders about more detailed findings, as the blog builds a readership, and via the two final conferences. The project aims to make a long-term impact by establishing a lasting network of stakeholders interested in the further political, economic and security trajectories of Egypt, through the use of the survey data that we will make publicly available and through the dissemination of results of published academic papers that will be on-going.