What "Brexit Means Brexit" Means to Citizens

In the referendum on 23 June 2016 voters gave the British government a mandate for Britain to be the first country to ever leave the EU. Yet, the options of 'leave' or 'remain' do not give clear guidance as to what kind of Brexit people want or will accept. At the heart of this research project is a question of huge importance to policy-makers: which negotiation outcomes will be considered legitimate by the British public?

The negotiations ahead involve an array of complex policy questions, including the much debated trade-off over whether the government should prioritise controlling the inflow of EU immigrants or preferential trade agreements with the EU. But there are many other policy choices that relate to EU budget contributions, EU subsidies, financial services, jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice and so on. None of these featured on the referendum ballot, nor are they issues that most people gave much thought to in advance of the referendum. This project therefore aims to shed light on the question of what the Prime Minister's repeated dictum - 'Brexit Means Brexit' - actually means to ordinary people. What expectations do voters, both Leavers and Remainers, have of Brexit, what process do they want the negotiations to take and ultimately what outcome do they want?

We also aim to advance our broader knowledge of how people form policy attitudes. Alongside self-interest, the dominant explanation of attitude formation is that people rely on informational short-cuts, typically cues from political parties. But the EU referendum is a situation in which the two largest parties - Labour and the Conservatives - were openly split internally before the vote and are still divided on the nature of Brexit. We argue that people are also responsive to other cues. These are both social and political in nature. The former are cues about what other types of people in similar social groups think. The latter are based around political divisions based on new opinion based groups formed around the distinction between Leavers and Remainers.

Our aim is to thus gather new information on people's views about the Brexit negotiations, but also shed light on what types of social and political cues shape these opinions. In close collaboration with the 'UK in a Changing Europe' programme, we will disseminate information on people's expectations of Brexit by focusing on three crucial questions: What,
Why and With What Consequence.

- What do people expect of Brexit, what process do they want the negotiations to take and what are their preferred outcomes?
- Why, and how, do people arrive at positions on these complex policy issues?
- What are the consequences of these expectations and preferences for the negotiation positions of policy-makers and the legitimacy of the Brexit outcome?

To address these three core questions, we make use of state-of-the-art survey and experimental methods in collaboration with YouGov, a leading online polling company. These methods include 1) conjoint analysis, an innovative experimental design that enables us to determine how people value different features of complex Brexit trade-offs; 2) survey experiments that allow us to causally examine how different in-group cues affect opinions, and 3) a three-wave survey panel, with an oversample of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, that allows us to study the dynamics of public opinion over the course of the Brexit negotiations, as well as heterogeneity in opinions by social group and national identity.

We aim to contribute to the public debate on Brexit, through a series of on-going public events, briefings, blog posts and media appearances, and also contribute to the scholarly debate on how citizens form opinions on complex policy issues.

It is of profound importance for British democracy that the process and the substantive outcome of the Brexit negotiations are considered legitimate. The decision to leave the EU highlighted many pre-existing divisions in British society, but has also constructed a new fault line between Leavers and Remainers. The government has a difficult task ahead of it: leaving the EU in a manner that is responsive to what a majority of people want.

Our research project will provide crucial impartial evidence that will help two groups of beneficiaries to understand what citizens want out of the Brexit negotiations and how those preferences are formed: Firstly, policy-makers: people within government, and also those outside that aim to hold the government to account (e.g. parliamentarians and devolved governments) and secondly, the media and, indirectly, the wider public. In close collaboration with the 'UK in a Changing Europe' programme, we will present research-based evidence to inform government in its negotiations with the EU and allow Parliament to better hold government to account. We will also use our novel, high-quality survey data to explain to the media, and the public, what it is that voters actually want from the negotiations. As leading experts of public opinion formation, electoral behaviour and survey methodology, we are ideally placed to collect, analyse and disseminate precise information about citizen expectations, and preferences, about Brexit to policy makers and the public. Our impact strategy aims to ensure that both of these groups benefit from the research.

Policy makers
The government, and those advising the government on the Brexit negotiations, have a clear interest in understanding the public's expectations of, and opinions on, the negotiations. Such information is at the heart of responsive government, as it allows negotiators to adjust their positions in line with public preferences. Equally, opposition politicians in the Houses of Parliament, devolved governments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and interest groups tasked with holding the government to account also have a clear interest in such information. Given the overload of often poor quality data on Brexit attitudes, there is a danger that policy-makers may be swayed by surveys that bear little relationship to actual public opinion. Perhaps even more worryingly, the vast amount of seemingly conflicting survey evidence may lead them to ignore public opinion altogether. The aim of this project is to provide policy-makers with not just good information on public preferences regarding Brexit, but also to give them a better understanding of how these opinions are formed. Working closely with the 'UK in a Changing Europe' initiative, our findings will be disseminated through a series of on-going events, blog posts and media appearances (see Pathways to Impact). We will also seek to organise specific briefing sessions, and give evidence to, relevant government departments, parliamentary committees and interest groups.

The public
The other key beneficiary is the public, via the mass media. Through press briefings, press releases, blogs, media appearances and high-profile public events, again in collaboration with the 'UK in a Changing Europe' initiative, we will provide the public, directly and indirectly through the media, with an accessible and informed analysis of citizen preferences. In addition to disseminating our own data and research, we will also provide expert analysis to the media on how to best interpret and draw inferences from other data on citizens' opinions. It is important to enable journalists to make better use of survey data, and particularly to push beyond the headline figures of public support/opposition to specific proposals. We aim to facilitate a genuine understanding of how the public forms policy opinions.