A World of Rust Belts?: Deindustrialisation and its Impacts in Cities in the Global South

The election of Donald Trump and Brexit signal a demand among voters in the North Atlantic for the reversal of three decades of economic, cultural and political integration. Discontent with globalisation is fuelled by the deeply-rooted popular narrative that the "new international division of labour" - as outlined by Folker Fröbel and colleagues in 1980 - has resulted in the offshoring of well-paying factory jobs from the industrial heartlands of the OECD to developing countries. This research project seeks to enrich our understanding of the economic and urban geography of contemporary globalization by troubling this narrative of the rise of BRICS and other 'emerging' countries at the expense of jobs and industry in the global North. It will document deindustrialisation in South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, and inform a nuanced understanding of the new international geography of deindustrialisation.

The 'alter-globalization' movement reached its zenith at the 'battle of Seattle' at the 1999 World Trade Organization Ministerial Conference. The movement's participants were diverse, but one common refrain was that in a liberalised global economy producers in developing countries would struggle to compete against lead-firms in the OECD. However, a consequence of trade liberalization that activists failed to anticipate was the rapid expansion of South-South trade. A 2015 report published by UNCTAD entitled 'Global Value Chains and South-South Trade' shows that from 1990-2010 South-South trade increased ~15% annually and the majority of intra-South trade originates in East Asia. As a result of exposure to competition from East Asia, local industry in many cities in South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America has been in severe decline (Rodrik 2016). Economist Dani Rodrik terms deindustrialisation in developing countries 'premature' because in contrast to the pattern observed in the OECD, it has taken place prior to a shift from manufacturing to service-sector led growth, and he shows it has been more severe than deindustrialisation in advanced-industrialised countries such as the US and UK. This proposed research is the first comparative research project on deindustrialisation in the global South situated at the urban scale. It will focus on three cities where deindustrialisation has manifest itself differently - Kanpur, India; Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; and Buenos Aires, Argentina - and it will focus on three themes in each city.

1. Urban/regional planning and development - This will focus on the ways in which policy makers problematised deindustrialisation, and whether/how they sought to address it. In some cases they may have tried to protect domestic industry/labourers, while in other cases they may have simply sought to mitigate its impacts. This will be informed by policy documents and interviews with past and present government officials.

2. Business strategy, industrial policy and innovation - Strategies that allowed certain industries/firms to remain operational in each city will be identified. Possibilities include reducing labour costs, investing in technology and enhancing productivity, entering a joint venture with a more powerful firm, and/or subcontracting to informal sector producers. It will also evaluate whether policies that sought to assist domestic firms were successful. This will be informed by interviews with representatives of companies and industry groups.

3. Social welfare - This segment of the research determines the impact of deindustrialisation on labourers and documents their responses. It focuses on the ways labourers have adapted to changing labour markets (eg retraining or shifting to informal-sector activity), and it pays particular attention to the ways women and men have been affected differently (eg women's participation in the informal economy may have increased as the factory jobs available to men have disappeared).

This research strives to make demonstrable academic, societal and economic impacts. It will foster knowledge exchange with policy makers at multiple scales and other relevant stakeholders throughout the project. The research design will be co-produced with officials at the United Nations Environment Programme. This will allow UNEP officials to outline their needs, and influence the design - particularly of interview protocols - to ensure that the results inform their ongoing activities. This will take place at an initial workshop within the first three months of its commencement at the UNEP headquarters in Paris, and I will send policy briefs to UNEP officials as they are produced. Finally, I will return to the UNEP headquarters to present the findings of research and policy recommendations within the final three months of the project. This engagement will allow UNEP to assist in the dissemination of findings to its partner institutions throughout its extensive knowledge network, and it builds on my existing relationship with UNEP. I have participated in advisory board meetings of the UNEP's Global Initiative for Resource Efficient Cities at UN Habitat meetings in Mexico and Ecuador. Furthermore, UNEP invited me to deliver a keynote address at the Asia Pacific Urban Forum in 2015 in Indonesia. Finally, I recently edited a themed section of articles on the UN Habitat's New Urban Agenda for the International Development Planning Review, and the section included an article authored by the Deputy Head of the Secretariat of the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (UNEP), Martina Otto, and Sharon Gil, a Programme Officer (UNEP).
Within the first three months of the research project's commencement the Co-Is will approach their existing contacts within national and municipal governments, industry and civil society, to solicit their input and obtain a better understanding of their particular needs (e.g. what aspects of deindustrialisation remain unknown and/or particularly vexing?):
-India: Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, Kanpur Municipal Corporation, State Government of Uttar Pradesh
-Tanzania: Dar es Salaam City Council and the Ministry of Industry and Trade
-Argentina: Ministry of Production and the Buenos Aires Strategic Planning Council
A number of city-specific questions will be included in the surveys on the basis of these consultations. These and other key stakeholders from industry and civil society will be invited to a workshop during the last two weeks of research in each city. The PI and Co-Is will present preliminary findings and distribute policy briefs with in-depth recommendations for urban planning, industrial policy, business strategy and social welfare. If policy makers follow-up and express interest in implementing any of the recommendations the PI will apply for funds from the University of Manchester's impact acceleration account to invite them to the final workshop. This will solidify a channel for knowledge exchange, and provide opportunities for sustained future knowledge exchange and engagement.
This research has the potential to disrupt the widely-held belief that the global South has industrialised at the expense of well-paying factory jobs in the global North, which has undoubtedly fuelled right-wing populism in recent years. A range of strategies will be employed to influence public discourse. First, a public event will be hosted by the Manchester Urban Institute; previous events have been very well attended. Second, I will apply to organize an exhibition at the People's History Museum in Manchester. Previous exhibitions have focused on impacts of deindustrialisation in the UK, and this would show visitors how deindustrialisation impacts cities and workers around the world. Finally, I would author articles for outlets with which I have an existing relationship, such as Making It Magazine (the official magazine of UNIDO), and also pitch articles to editors at popular outlets such as The Guardian.