Developing a strategy for economic resilience in the West Midlands Combined Authority: The role of skills and industrial structure.

Lead Research Organisation: University of Birmingham
Department Name: Strategy and International Business

Abstract

The year 2008 has seen economies around the world facing one of the worst economic crises in history. The recession's effects included a significant loss of income and employment which led to several social ills such as crime, health and wellbeing deterioration etc. However, the crisis did not impact all places with the same severity. The fellow's doctoral research examined the impact of the 2008 recession across Local Authority Districts in Great Britain during 2008-2014 in order to identify why some places have performed better than others in mitigating the negative effects of the crisis. This ability to face the recession effects is termed economic resilience.

Using quantitative econometric methods a number of factors affecting local economic resilience have been identified. In particular, the results indicate that the share of younger aged population and degree level qualification holders has mitigated the impact of the crisis in different places. The policy implications suggest that there is value at the local level in a greater focus on skills as well as the inclusion of resilience as a core element of place-based policies. Simultaneously, the study has left unanswered questions over the effects of geography and the local industrial structure in economic resilience.

The fellowship aims to address these questions and deliver two strategy documents that will focus on the development of skills and a local industrial strategy to explicitly promote and enhance economic resilience. The documents will be informed by the fellow's doctoral thesis as well as additional new research. They will also involve the formation of a stakeholder group consisted of key local actors and policymakers to co-create these strategy documents. The engagement of this group at an early stage in this process will assist the dissemination and impact of the outputs on the formulation of policy in the region.

Overall, the planned programme of activities includes holding two stakeholder events which will lead to two strategy documents. The dissemination of these documents will involve two launch events as well as a series of blog posts and policy briefings. The additional research to be conducted as part of the fellowship will lead to two academic publications. This carefully planned programme will allow the fellow to engage with both the academic and the policymaking (and wider) community, maximising the impact of the research and delivering better wellbeing outcomes for the region and beyond.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description Research during the award has focused on analysing the effect that industrial structures have on regional resilience. In addition, research collaborations have been developed to look into the effect of entrepreneurship on economic resilience.

1) Looking at industrial structures, we use information on inter-industry input-output relations in each UK region to construct a measure of embeddedness for each local economy. We find that this measure of embeddedness has an inverted U-shaped relationship to resilience which means that economic systems that are too embedded will have reduced resilience performance in the event of a crisis. This work has focused on the UK and now it is been taken forward with colleagues in Italy to test the relationships at the European regional level.

2) A new collaboration has been established with colleagues from the US in order to look at the effect of entrepreneurship on economic resilience. This is based on my previous finding that entrepreneurship has not affected the economic impact of the 2008 crisis on UK Local Authorities. Further work includes comparisons between the UK and the US and a breakdown of the crisis period by year. Initial unpublished results suggest that places with greater entrepreneurial activity in the US have performed worse during the recession and better during the recovery stage of the 2008 crisis. In the UK, more entrepreneurial places have not had significant differences in their crisis impact but have recovered faster.

The award has allowed me to improve my skills in econometrics by focussing on advanced panel data techniques such as Hausmann-Taylor estimators and Instrumental Variable approaches. In addition, I have engaged in Input-Output model development and methodologies. New research questions opened whilst undertaking the fellowship are:

1) What is the extent of the impact on local economies from a collapse of their most important industries? Using a multi-regional input-output model, we can estimate the local impact of changes on a region's most important industry.
2) What is the role of creative industries in resilience? The former have been hailed as a significant input to both other industries and local economies. In addition, given the high rates of self-employment in creative industries, what does this mean in times of economic crisis and how can policy help?
3) What is the role of technology and digitisation in resilience imbalances among places? Answering this question will shed light to the role of ICT on levelling up local economies or whether it leads to further widening of inequalities.
Exploitation Route The findings of the study could be of use to policymakers in designing Local Industrial Strategies and support for entrepreneurs. Whilst more place-based research is needed, the findings highlight that the level of embeddedness in local economies can significantly affect their resilience to crises. Local Industrial Strategies should gain a better understanding of local supply chain and input-output relationships in order to maximise the capability of their area to overcome a negative shock. In addition, business support should focus on responsiveness during recession periods with a particular focus on newborn firms in order to reap the benefits of entrepreneurship during recovery.
Sectors Government

Democracy and Justice

 
Description The findings of the research have established me as a stakeholder in resilience discussions in West Midlands. I have participated in workshops on developing resilience and the State of the Region Repost in the West Midlands Combined Authority and was invited to provide expert commentary on inclusivity and resilience at the Birmingham Economic Review. There is also evidence that my work has been considered by HM Treasury officials in thinking about resilience and the conditions affecting the impact of a crisis. During the second submission period a range of outputs were created to further disseminate the results of the project and contribute to the resilience discussions, especially in relation to the COVID-19 economic impact.
First Year Of Impact 2019
Sector Communities and Social Services/Policy,Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Policy & public services

 
Description Blog on economic resilience to shocks 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Blog presenting a study of the state of the art in local economic resilience. The report describes the theoretical and conceptual foundations of local economic resilience as well as a review of what is known about the determining factors of local economic resilience.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://blog.bham.ac.uk/cityredi/economic-resilience-to-shocks-implications-for-labour-markets/
 
Description Blog on economic resilience to shocks 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Publication of our report on understanding economic resilience and its determining factors. The report brings together a range of literature on economic resilience and attempts to systematise the most important factors in it
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://blog.bham.ac.uk/cityredi/economic-resilience-to-shocks-implications-for-labour-markets/
 
Description Blog on research output 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A blog has been produced to discuss the findings of a research paper titled "The Role of Embeddedness on Regional Economic Resilience: Evidence from the UK" using accessible language
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019,2020
URL https://blog.bham.ac.uk/cityredi/the-role-of-embeddedness-on-regional-economic-resilience-evidence-f...
 
Description Blog on the uneven economic impact of COVID-19 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Blogpost highlighting the uneven impact of the economic crisis associated with the first COVID-19 lockdown in the first half of 2020
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://blog.bham.ac.uk/cityredi/the-uneven-economic-impact-of-covid-19-evidence-from-claimant-count...
 
Description Blogpost on the uneven spatial footprint of the COVID-19 shutdown 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Blogpost that localised work conducted at the national level from the Institute for Fiscal Studies. The work was one of the first in the country highlighting how the first lockdown is expected to have a varying economic impact in different local authorities. Following publication of the blog I was approached by researchers for the Midlands Engine and policy stakeholders in Manchester in order to replicate my findings for their relevant geographies.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://blog.bham.ac.uk/cityredi/the-uneven-spatial-footprint-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-shutdown/
 
Description Contribution to HM Treasury inquiry on regional imbalances 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I have contributed the findings of my resilience work to the inquiry from HM Treasury on regional imbalances.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/treasury-committee/...
 
Description Contribution to Treasury Inquiry on the impact of COVID-19 on the economy 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Contribution to the institutional response to the Treasury's inquiry on the impact of COVID-19 on the economy. The contribution highlighted the role of local resilience and its determinants.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Contribution to the Birmingham Economic Review 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The PI has contributed a written section at the Birmingham Economic Review. The piece discusses the latest challenges and opportunities for the region with an emphasis on resilience and inclusive growth. The Review is published in collaboration with the Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce and receives widespread attention from the private and public sector in the West Midlands Combined Authority
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.greaterbirminghamchambers.com/research-campaigning/birmingham-economic-review/#2
 
Description Contribution to the Midlands Independent Economic Review 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Third sector organisations
Results and Impact The PI has contributed to the Midlands Independent Economic Review call for evidence - review of existing evidence. The call for evidence is managed by the Midlands Engine Economic Observatory and is currently in progress. The PI's submission was in relation to economic resilience research, findings and policy implications.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Contribution to the West Midlands Combined Authority weekly report on COVID-19 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Blogpost on the lessons from the 2008 crisis on the resilience to the COVID-19 economic crisis. The post was included in the West Midlands Combined Authority weekly COVID-19 monitor distributed to a range of policymakers and stakeholders in the West Midlands and beyond
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://blog.bham.ac.uk/cityredi/local-resilience-and-the-coronavirus-covid-19-economic-crisis/
 
Description Development of response to BEIS Select Committee Inquiry on the impact of COVID-19 on businesses and workers 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Collation of institutional response to the BEIS Select Committee Inquiry on the impact of COVID-19 on Businesses and Workers
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://blog.bham.ac.uk/cityredi/response-to-the-department-for-business-energy-and-industrial-strat...
 
Description Participation in visit from head of regional analysis at HM Treasury 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The PI has participated in a visit from the head of regional analysis at HM Treasury. The discussion revolved around City-REDI's research on regional imbalances. Particular interest has been given to examinations of resilience and Kitsos was asked to forward his research for further consideration. From email exchanges, it seems that Kitsos' research has been used in thinking about the 2008 crisis differential impact on local authorities in the UK.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Participation in workshop on developing the State of the Region Report 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I was invited to participate in the ongoing work of updating and developing the state of the region report for the West Midlands in order to incorporate the Sustainable Development Goals
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019,2020
 
Description Participation in workshop on resilience in the West Midlands region 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I was invited to take part in a workshop on Building Future Resilience in the region. This was part of a series of workshops organised by the West Midlands Combined Authority in order to develop its asks from central government to increase resilience and adaptability in the region.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Participation to the West Midlands Combined Authority resilience workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Invitation to participate to the West Midlands Combined Authority Resilience Workshop set up in early 2020
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Policy briefing on role of skills on economic resilience 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Production and distribution of policy briefing on the role of skills on economic resilience
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Policy briefing on the role of industrial structure on economic resilience 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Production and distribution of policy briefing on the role of industrial structure and embeddedness on economic resilience.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019