Going Global? Firms, Trade and Productivity After Brexit

Lead Research Organisation: London School of Economics & Pol Sci
Department Name: Centre for Economic Performance

Abstract

Brexit is the biggest change to the UK's external relations for at least a generation. Leaving the EU will lead to the introduction of new barriers to trade between the UK and the EU, while also creating opportunities for the UK to develop its own independent trade policy. This project studies the impact of Brexit on the UK's trade and economic performance. The analysis will consider how the UK economy is changing in response to Brexit and will provide estimates of the effect of Brexit on productivity, trade, output, wages and living standards.

A key contribution of the research will be the creation of a new dataset matching trade and production data at the firm level. Using this dataset, the project will analyse which firms, workers, regions and industries are most exposed to Brexit, how Brexit affects firms' participation in the global economy, whether COVID-19 alters how firms respond to Brexit and how changes in trade impact firm performance and productivity. The project will also develop a trade model of the UK economy to quantify the aggregate economic consequences of Brexit and evaluate alternative post-Brexit trade policies.

The project's findings will help policy makers and the general public understand the economic consequences of Brexit and will inform debate on UK trade and economic policy after Brexit. For example, the project will shed light on the costs and benefits of alternative trade agreements with the EU and other partners; what types of trade barriers are most important for UK firms, and; how the effects of Brexit differ across workers, firms, regions and industries.

Publications

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Swati Dhingra (2022) Expecting Brexit

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UK In A Changing Europe (2021) Brexit and Beyond

 
Description Bank of England Special Topics Meeting on Brexit
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
 
Description Going global CEP-Bank of England partnership 
Organisation Bank of England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution The project team has collaborated with researchers at the Bank of England to study the effects of Brexit on UK trade. Together we are writing a joint paper summarising our findings. Project team members have contributed to the design of the research project, data collection, data cleaning, econometric analysis, and writing the research paper. The project team has also presented our findings to Bank of England staff not involved in the project.
Collaborator Contribution Bank of England staff have contributed to the design of the research project, data collection, data cleaning, econometric analysis, and writing the research paper.
Impact Briefing to Monetary Policy Committee as part of Special Topics Meeting on Brexit.
Start Year 2021
 
Description Economics Observatory trade data story 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article for Economics Observatory analysing changes in UK trade in January 2021.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.economicsobservatory.com/what-do-new-uk-trade-data-reveal-about-the-impact-of-lockdown-a...
 
Description LSE Beverage report podcast 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Undergraduate students
Results and Impact Thomas Sampson was interviewed by the Beverage Report podcast (a podcast recorded by LSE economics undergraduates) about his research on Brexit.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://www.lse.ac.uk/economics/community/the-beverage-report-podcast
 
Description UK Trade Policy Observatory annual conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Thomas Sampson discussed new research on how Brexit has effected UK trade as part of the UK Trade Policy Observatory's annual conference 2021.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description UK Trade and Business Commission session 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Thomas Sampson gave evidence to the UK Trade and Business Commission's first session on the Economic Impact of the UK-EU Trade Deal
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.tradeandbusiness.uk/past-sessions/economic-impact-of-the-eu-uk-tca
 
Description UKICE blog Expecting Brexit 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Blog for UK in a Changing Europe reviewing the academic literature on how Brexit affected the UK economy between the referendum and the start of the new UK-EU trade relationship.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://ukandeu.ac.uk/expecting-brexit/
 
Description UKICE blog January 2021 trade 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Blog for UK in a Changing Europe analysing changes in UK trade in January 2021 - the first month of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://ukandeu.ac.uk/trade-after-brexit-the-initial-numbers/
 
Description UKICE blog TCA 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Blog for UK in a Changing Europe summarising research on how the Trade and Cooperation Agreement between the UK and the EU is expected to affect trade.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://ukandeu.ac.uk/uk-trade-post-brexit/
 
Description UKICE-CER panel on UK trade 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Thomas Sampson was part of joint UK in a Changing Europe-Centre for European Reform panel discussion on how Brexit has affected UK trade.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://ukandeu.ac.uk/events/brexits-economic-impact-early-evidence-and-future-prospects/