"LEVELLING UP" LABOUR SUPPLY

The Coronavirus pandemic has led to increases in retirement and long-term sickness, and Brexit and the pandemic together have led to a reduction in the number of EU workers in the UK. Together, these changes amount to a large reduction in the size of the workforce, which is the primary reason for difficulties faced by employers in most sectors recruiting staff since the ending of 'lockdown', as well as issue of pay and conditions and their geographical and social inequalities.

Little is known about the uneven geography across the UK in these sources of reductions in the workforce in driving the sharpest rises in job vacancies in rural areas and some London boroughs, precisely the areas most dependent on foreign labour. This information is important in designing policies to effectively address "Levelling Up" the economic fortunes of different parts of the UK, with some places short of workers, at least in the short term; and others short of jobs, in particular well-paid jobs.

The UK Government has promised a transformation to a high-wage economy following Brexit, predicated on the view that reduced labour supply will stimulate investment and innovation to raise productivity, and that the UK has become locked-in to a low-cost economic model dependent on cheap international labour. The research will produce new datasets as the latest evidence becomes available, including the 2021 Census of Population, analysis and insights to assess this claim and its geography, by examining links between local changes to local labour demand, supply, wages, productivity and unemployment.

More generally, the research will better understand the impact of Brexit and the pandemic on local labour markets and local economies in different parts of the UK, to inform planning for future economic resilience to 'shocks', and to assess the effectiveness of the UK new immigration policy in meeting labour demand and skills shortages in all parts of the UK.