Ulster University "NISRA BDR Programme"
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Ulster
Department Name: Sch of Accounting
Abstract
This project will form part of the beta testing of the NISRA de-identified Business Data for Research (BDR) database in advance of the data being made available for wider use by approved researchers within the Administrative Data Research Northern Ireland (ADR NI).
The vision for Northern Ireland set out in the "10X Economy" targets an innovation-led growth underpinned by trade and investment (Department for the Economy, 2021a). In our proposed research, we will use the newly available BDR datasets to provide illumination on the trading ecosystem that prevails for Northern Irish businesses. As recognised in the 10X vision, trade is critical to the amplification of benefits emerging from innovatory success and thus, along with the availability of financial capital, is crucial to Northern Irish development. Indeed, the "10X Economy" has an entire companion document devoted to "Trade and Investment" (Department for the Economy, 2021b), and trade is a central pillar in the 10X research priorities (Department for the Economy, 2021c) - thus underscoring the importance of research in this area.
Research aims
1. Develop a suite of resources to summarise and visualise the trading activity of NI businesses, analysed by sector and location, over the period 2014-2020.
2. Using the NIABI and BESES datasets, undertake statistical investigation to provide policy insights on the determinants of trade flows for NI businesses, including the impact of the Brexit decision.
3. Provide feedback on the usefulness of the NIABI and BESES datasets and, in particular, to identify what is missing to enable the development of a trade model for NI.
4. Assist in the achievement of the 10X Economy vision of a more competitive and hence externally-orientated regional economy.
Research objectives/deliverables
1. Undertake a data review and produce summary indicators of the NIABI and BESES variables. This will yield evidence on the useability and distribution of the variables. It will involve: (i) reviewing the useability of the data, (ii) producing summary statistics and (iii) producing visualisations/charts. This is critical to understand the nature of the data and to identify usage issues such as outliers, missing variables and distribution patterns.
2. Produce a multi-period analysis of operating-structure focusing on the variation by sector and geography (with a focus on the 10X priority sectors). This will involve a detailed analysis of the operating structure (as identified through indicators in the NIABI dataset), including organisational form, employment, a selection of accounting-type variables and gross value added. While we are especially interested in trade, we first need to understand the underlying operating conditions in the local business environment. Crucially, we are able to identify the impact of temporal changes and thus deduce the relevance of impacts such as the Brexit decision.
3. Produce a multi-period analysis of trading volumes and destinations by sector and geography (with a focus on the 10X priority sectors). This will develop sector- and geography-specific analyses of the evolving structure of trade. By looking across time, we can understand the impact of Brexit on trade redirection/intensification. The distinctions evidenced in the dataset e.g. imports/exports, locations, freight/insurance costs, volumes and goods/services enable us to provide a rich, multi-layered analysis and thus more accurately pinpoint the effects of changing external conditions.
4. Explore the design of a trade model for NI aided by the BESES data. At present, there is a lack of trade modelling for NI separate from the rest of the UK. Given Brexit, and the new position of NI in EU/UK trade, it is vital that modelling is employed specifically for NI. We aim to evaluate the useability of the BESES data for modelling Northern Irish trade.
5. Disseminate our findings according to the funding call - project page, blog, data insight report.
The vision for Northern Ireland set out in the "10X Economy" targets an innovation-led growth underpinned by trade and investment (Department for the Economy, 2021a). In our proposed research, we will use the newly available BDR datasets to provide illumination on the trading ecosystem that prevails for Northern Irish businesses. As recognised in the 10X vision, trade is critical to the amplification of benefits emerging from innovatory success and thus, along with the availability of financial capital, is crucial to Northern Irish development. Indeed, the "10X Economy" has an entire companion document devoted to "Trade and Investment" (Department for the Economy, 2021b), and trade is a central pillar in the 10X research priorities (Department for the Economy, 2021c) - thus underscoring the importance of research in this area.
Research aims
1. Develop a suite of resources to summarise and visualise the trading activity of NI businesses, analysed by sector and location, over the period 2014-2020.
2. Using the NIABI and BESES datasets, undertake statistical investigation to provide policy insights on the determinants of trade flows for NI businesses, including the impact of the Brexit decision.
3. Provide feedback on the usefulness of the NIABI and BESES datasets and, in particular, to identify what is missing to enable the development of a trade model for NI.
4. Assist in the achievement of the 10X Economy vision of a more competitive and hence externally-orientated regional economy.
Research objectives/deliverables
1. Undertake a data review and produce summary indicators of the NIABI and BESES variables. This will yield evidence on the useability and distribution of the variables. It will involve: (i) reviewing the useability of the data, (ii) producing summary statistics and (iii) producing visualisations/charts. This is critical to understand the nature of the data and to identify usage issues such as outliers, missing variables and distribution patterns.
2. Produce a multi-period analysis of operating-structure focusing on the variation by sector and geography (with a focus on the 10X priority sectors). This will involve a detailed analysis of the operating structure (as identified through indicators in the NIABI dataset), including organisational form, employment, a selection of accounting-type variables and gross value added. While we are especially interested in trade, we first need to understand the underlying operating conditions in the local business environment. Crucially, we are able to identify the impact of temporal changes and thus deduce the relevance of impacts such as the Brexit decision.
3. Produce a multi-period analysis of trading volumes and destinations by sector and geography (with a focus on the 10X priority sectors). This will develop sector- and geography-specific analyses of the evolving structure of trade. By looking across time, we can understand the impact of Brexit on trade redirection/intensification. The distinctions evidenced in the dataset e.g. imports/exports, locations, freight/insurance costs, volumes and goods/services enable us to provide a rich, multi-layered analysis and thus more accurately pinpoint the effects of changing external conditions.
4. Explore the design of a trade model for NI aided by the BESES data. At present, there is a lack of trade modelling for NI separate from the rest of the UK. Given Brexit, and the new position of NI in EU/UK trade, it is vital that modelling is employed specifically for NI. We aim to evaluate the useability of the BESES data for modelling Northern Irish trade.
5. Disseminate our findings according to the funding call - project page, blog, data insight report.
Organisations
| Description | As a preliminary research exercise, we provide insights into the trade performance and external sales activity of Northern Ireland businesses identified as belonging to the 10X priority sectors relative to other businesses. We also examine whether geography, Brexit and Covid-19 impacted business trading behaviour and economic performance over the period 2014-2020. We focus on four research questions: 1. Is the data provided by NISRA (BESES and NIABI) usable for researching the performance and trading behaviour of Northern Ireland businesses? 2. How has the relative performance and trading behaviour of business sectors in Northern Ireland changed over the period 2014-2020, with particular emphasis on the 10X priority clusters? 3. Are there regional differences in the relative performance and trajectory of business sectors in Northern Ireland over the period 2014-2020, with particular emphasis on the 10X priority clusters? 4. Is it possible to design a model for Northern Ireland trade distinct from the United Kingdom? We conclude that the datasets are a useful source of data and we highlighted how this data could be strengthened. We show that the relative performance of the NI economy has improved over the period in most sectors and across all regions, though traditional manufacturing declined. We identify geographical differences in performance and exporting activity across the country. Finally, we conclude that the data within the BDR datasets is not sufficient to enable the design of a trade model for Northern Ireland. We provide a list of the data variables that are typically included when modelling trade so the data collectors are aware of what is required. |
| Exploitation Route | Our investigation of the variables made available from the datasets identified the presence of some errors and issues related to the treatment of blank cells (automatically registered as zeros). It is important that researchers and data handlers know about this treatment, as a high proportion of zeros may cause miscalculations when analysing data, particularly if performing firm-level analysis. Our work may inform a thorough investigation of the definition and boundaries of what constitutes a 10X business and cluster. Our work shows that data findings from these datasets can be disaggregated by sector and given the focus on 10X priority clusters, a more detailed study could be undertaken to better understand the trading behaviour, employment, subsidisation and characteristics of these businesses. Similarly, our work shows that data findings from these datasets can be disaggregated by geographical region and given the focus on 'levelling-up' , a more detailed study could be undertaken to better understand the trading behaviour, employment, subsidisation and characteristics of different locations within Northern Ireland. Our research used data from 2014 to 2020, future studies could investigate "potential Brexit effects" but (once data becomes available for more recent years) do this for the period when the new, post-Brexit trading arrangements were in place, i.e., from the start of 2021 onwards. Finally, adopting a similar approach, other researchers could use data on purchases (by geographical source, e.g., whether from GB or ROI or REU) to attempt to identify any impact from the Protocol/Windsor Framework arrangements on the supply chains of Northern Ireland businesses from 2021 onwards. |
| Sectors | Communities and Social Services/Policy Government Democracy and Justice |
| URL | https://www.nisra.gov.uk/support/administrative-data-research-northern-ireland-adr-ni-themed-datasets/business-data-research |
| Description | Some action has already been taken by non-academic stakeholders. This research was preliminary beta testing of the BDR datasets and as such a focus of our work was on interrogating the data and the metadata. Our findings influenced the data managers procedures and support for future users. For example, when NISRA designed their metadata on the BDR datasets they incorporated our feedback on the data and metadata. We reviewed their amended draft user guides, etc and provided feedback on these, given our experience of working with the datasets and systems. There was interest in our study from the Department for the Economy (DfE). We were invited to the DfE to present our findings and have, since this date, been invited back a number of times to discuss the definition of 10x priority sectors and extensions to this study. DfE commented that it was the first time they had seen NI business data analysed in such a granular manner. Moreover, the DfE were interested in how we identified 10x businesses. Indeed, this became the subject of a future meeting, and resulted in changes to DfE's approach to identifying businesses belonging to some of the 10x priority sectors (at that time). Evidence that the research undertaken is currently having impact is that we are currently working on a proposal to extend the prior work with the support of DfE (we have a letter of support from DfE for this proposed work). |
| First Year Of Impact | 2024 |
| Sector | Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Impact Types | Policy & public services |
| Description | Discussion of data with NISRA on 18th January 2024 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Discussion with the data providers about the DBR dataset and the confining nature of the constraints placed on it by the data providers. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| Description | Discussion of data with NISRA on 8th December 2023 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Discussion of the data available for policy work and ways to access that data. Approaches to getting data. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Presentation of our research and discussion of extended project with DfE on 17th January 2024 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | DfE provided feedback on proposed research, formalised their support by providing a letter detailing their interest in our work. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| Description | Presentation of our research and discussion of extending the project with DfE on 7th November |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | DfE were very interested in our research and asked about how it could repeated, extended and enquired about other areas of interest. We met with them again on the 7th November to discuss a new grant proposal which would extend our previous work. They were very supportive. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Presentation of our research and discussion of project with DfE on 3rd October |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | This was a meeting with the chief economist and policymakers from a variety of departments within DfE and InvestNI to present on and discuss the findings of our research. There were 6 policymakers/government economists at the presentation, with others joining online. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Presentation of our research and discussion of project with NISRA |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | The we held a scheduled online meeting with NISRA. At this meeting we provided: 1. Presentation on our research findings (using the data insights report to structure this). 2. Feedback from the research team on the data (using the data explained report to structure this). 3. Feedback from the research team on the funding process (the application process, onboarding and data access). This presentation and meeting lasted one hour. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Presentation of our research at the Future Proofing Northern Ireland Business Data for Research Conference at the Pavilion, Stormont Estate, on Wednesday 8th November (9:30am to 4:30pm). |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | This was a one-day conference exploring the theme of business and economic data needs for research and policy in Northern Ireland. The conference marked the launch of the Business Data for Research (BDR) dataset, and included presentations from NISRA, the Department for the Economy (DfE) and accredited researchers who had engaged as early users of the data. We were one of eight research teams to present the findings from their research. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Ulster University Workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | Discussion of the findings with doctoral students and masters students at an internal workshop, showcasing the department's research over the past six months. The workshop was attended by masters students, PhD students and academics (mostly from Ulster but also from Sussex University). |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |