Cumulative Disadvantage in the Criminal Justice System
Lead Research Organisation:
UNIVERSITY OF PLYMOUTH
Department Name: School of Society and Culture
Abstract
Criminal justice punishment is unequally distributed. The UK has the highest rates of imprisonment in Western Europe, where ethnic minority people in prisons make up 27 per cent of prisoners compared to 13 per cent of the general population. Ethnic disproportionality is evidenced across different stages of the Criminal Justice System (CJS). From the point of arrest through prosecution, pretrial detention, sentencing, and imprisonment, people from ethnic minority groups experience persistently worse outcomes than white people.Ethnic disparities are even more pronounced among children. Young black males are three times more likely to be arrested, more likely to be sentenced to custody and spend longer in youth custody compared to than young white males.
While recent government reports have highlighted the persistence of inequalities for ethnic minority groups in the CJS, there is little understanding about the drivers of ethnic disparities. There is limited evidence regarding how cumulative disadvantage produces ethnic disparities in the CJS, particularly in terms of how inequalities accumulate across different stages of the CJS and how specific combinations of factors like age, gender, and ethnicity interact to deepen punishment for some groups.
The project aims to generate new evidence about the role of cumulative disadvantage in understanding ethnic disparities, and the ways inequalities in the CJS build across different decision points and cumulatively from an interaction of individual circumstances and case processing factors. Grounded on cumulative disadvantage and intersectionality theories, it will use an integrated framework of analysis to examine the treatment of ethnic minority groups in the CJS. Taking advantage of cross-justice linked datasets from family courts, criminal courts, Prison and Probation released by the Data First data linking programme led by the Ministry of Justice, and advanced statistical modelling methods, the research will examines cumulative disadvantage as an additive and interactional process which compounds disadvantage for particular groups at different decision points in the CJS and take a life course perspective to track the entire trajectory of a criminal case, from pre-trial detention to post-sentencing outcomes.
The project will contribute towards increased understanding about which groups are subject to cumulative disadvantage at different stages of the CJS, how earlier disadvantage might compound CJS outcomes, and the factors (and their interactions) that are associated with the accumulation of disadvantage.There are potential benefits for policy and public service delivery. Evidence into the causes of ethnic inequalities in the CJS will aid progress towards government equality objectives to deliver improved, evidence-based interventions to achieve better outcomes for ethnic minority groups.
While recent government reports have highlighted the persistence of inequalities for ethnic minority groups in the CJS, there is little understanding about the drivers of ethnic disparities. There is limited evidence regarding how cumulative disadvantage produces ethnic disparities in the CJS, particularly in terms of how inequalities accumulate across different stages of the CJS and how specific combinations of factors like age, gender, and ethnicity interact to deepen punishment for some groups.
The project aims to generate new evidence about the role of cumulative disadvantage in understanding ethnic disparities, and the ways inequalities in the CJS build across different decision points and cumulatively from an interaction of individual circumstances and case processing factors. Grounded on cumulative disadvantage and intersectionality theories, it will use an integrated framework of analysis to examine the treatment of ethnic minority groups in the CJS. Taking advantage of cross-justice linked datasets from family courts, criminal courts, Prison and Probation released by the Data First data linking programme led by the Ministry of Justice, and advanced statistical modelling methods, the research will examines cumulative disadvantage as an additive and interactional process which compounds disadvantage for particular groups at different decision points in the CJS and take a life course perspective to track the entire trajectory of a criminal case, from pre-trial detention to post-sentencing outcomes.
The project will contribute towards increased understanding about which groups are subject to cumulative disadvantage at different stages of the CJS, how earlier disadvantage might compound CJS outcomes, and the factors (and their interactions) that are associated with the accumulation of disadvantage.There are potential benefits for policy and public service delivery. Evidence into the causes of ethnic inequalities in the CJS will aid progress towards government equality objectives to deliver improved, evidence-based interventions to achieve better outcomes for ethnic minority groups.
Publications
Lymperopoulou K
(2026)
Cumulative Disadvantage: Ethnic Inequalities in Criminal Court Proceedings in England and Wales
in The British Journal of Criminology
Lymperopoulou K
(2025)
Ethnicity, gender, remand, plea and sentencing
Lymperopoulou K
(2025)
Cumulative disadvantage and ethnic inequalities in the criminal justice system
| Description | The research used cross-justice datasets created through the Data First (DF) programme led by the Ministry of Justice to generate evidence about how different forms of disadvantage combine and accumulate across different stages of the criminal justice system, and the ways they contribute to ethnic disparities. Key findings to date suggest that ethnic disparities are present at successive stages of the court process, from plea and remand through to sentencing, with larger disparities in pre-sentencing outcomes: • Black African, black Caribbean and defendants from mixed white and black ethnic backgrounds appearing in the Crown Court faced higher odds of being remanded even after adjusting for other factors. Compared to the white British defendants, their chances of being remanded to custody prior to trial were between 25% and 59% higher. Defendants from ethnic minority groups were also between 38% and 71% more likely to plead not guilty compared to their white British counterparts. • These pre-sentencing outcomes are shown to increase the likelihood of imprisonment reinforcing the idea that imprisonment is shaped by prior decisions in the court process. Adverse outcomes at earlier decisions in court proceedings can produce cumulative disadvantage by influencing how defendants are perceived and treated during sentencing. This is evident when combinations of adverse outcomes are examined: • The probability of a prison sentence after being remanded to custody and pleading not guilty for black African and white and black African defendants was double that of white British defendants. The probability of this combination of outcomes was 50% higher for Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and white and black Caribbean defendants, and 75% higher for black Caribbean defendants, than for white British defendants. These figures suggest that people from ethnic minority groups are far more likely to experience cumulative disadvantage in the justice system. They also point to systemic, indirect ethnic biases in the justice system. The intersection of ethnicity and gender shapes justice outcomes in distinct ways, with men from ethnic minority groups experiencing more sustained disadvantage than women: • Women defendants from all ethnic minority groups are more likely to be remanded in custody than white British women. Men from black, mixed, white and other minority groups not individually reported are more likely to be remanded in custody compared to white British men. However, Asian men are less likely to be remanded in custody than white British men. • Both men and women from ethnic minority groups are more likely to plead not guilty after controlling for other factors. Men from nearly all ethnic minority backgrounds (except Asian) are also more likely to be sentenced to prison. In contrast, except for black women there are no statistically significant differences in the likelihood of a prison sentence between women from ethnic minority groups and white British women after controlling for other factors. These findings may suggest that ethnic disadvantages observed at earlier stages in the court process persist into sentencing more visibly for men than women. |
| Exploitation Route | The research is delivering important insights about policy making, practice and service delivery to address ethnic inequalities and cumulative disadvantage in the Criminal Justice System. The research project is working closely with practitioners in statutory and non-statutory organisations to develop tangible recommendations to enhance the fairness, consistency and accountability of decisions across stages of the justice system. The research findings will help to shape future direction of research on ethnic inequalities and cumulative disadvantage in the Criminal Justice System and identify new areas for investigation. |
| Sectors | Communities and Social Services/Policy Government Democracy and Justice |
| URL | https://ethnicityandcriminaljustice.co.uk/ |
| Description | A number of dissemination and stakeholder engagement activities have taken place to communicate research findings, raise public awareness and facilitate dialogue around the research. Workshops with practitioners in statutory and non-statutory organisations have created opportunities to discuss findings, improve understanding of the causes of inequalities in the Criminal Justice System, and co-create potential solutions to address ethnic inequalities and cumulative disadvantage in the justice system. As the project is ongoing, these activities are helping to build relationships and inform the development of practical and policy-relevant recommendations. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2025 |
| Sector | Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Impact Types | Policy & public services |
| Description | Economic and Social Research Council : Plymouth ESRC Festival of Social Science |
| Amount | £1,000 (GBP) |
| Organisation | Economic and Social Research Council |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 11/2025 |
| End | 11/2025 |
| Description | Cumulative disadvantage and ethnic inequalities in the criminal justice system, 10/03/25 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Blog aimed at disseminating the aims, objectives and methods of the research to wider audiences. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2025 |
| URL | https://www.adruk.org/news-publications/news-blogs/ |
| Description | ESRC Festival of Social Science event - Ethnic Inequalities and Cumulative Disadvantage in the CJS, 7/11/25 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Public engagement and stakeholder event as part of the ESRC Festival of Social Science. The event hosted by Action for Race Equality and CLINKS brought together practitioners from statutory organisations including policing, prisons and probation and youth justice services, and non-statutory organisations working with justice system users, to discuss how ethnic disparities persist and accumulate across the justice system and co-create solutions to address them. Participants reflected on research findings from the project Cumulative Disadvantage in the Criminal Justice System led by Dr Kitty Lymperopoulou examining ethnic disparities in remand, plea decisions and imprisonment using data form the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) Data First data linking programme funded by ADR UK. The discussions emphasised how disadvantages accumulate across successive stages of the justice system and explored systemic, institutional and intersecting drivers of these outcomes. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2025 |
| Description | Invited Talk ONS Research Excellence Series, 23 October 2025 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The presentation aimed to disseminate findings from the research and showcase how the Data First criminal justice datasets are being used to produce new insights, and inform change to address ethnic disparities in the criminal justice system. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2025 |
| URL | https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/statistics/requestingstatistics/secureresearchservice/resear... |
| Description | Invited presentation to Scottish Government 21/5/25 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation of research findings at the Scottish government attended by government and non-governmental stakeholders to raise awareness about ethnic disparities in the criminal justice system and inform future priorities for Scottish government. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2025 |
| Description | Invited talk at ADR UK Understanding inequalities Symposium, 4/06/24 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Invited talk at the ADR UK Researcher Symposium: Understanding inequalities: What can administrative data research tell us. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| Description | NCRM DTRN webinar Exploring Ethnicity through national datasets. |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | Presentation at a webinar hosted by the National Centre for Research Methods examining the use of the Ministry of Justice Data First datasets to research ethnicity and the justice system. The webinar aimed to facilitate the usage, and widen the appeal, of the Data First criminal justice datasets within the research community aimed at post-graduate students, academic and non-academic researchers. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2025 |
| URL | https://repository.ncrm.ac.uk/resources/video/?id=4989 |
| Description | Presentation at ADR UK PHD conference, 16/1/25 Cardiff, Wales |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | The talk discussed insights, challenges and hints and tips from researching ethnic disparities using the Ministry of Justice Data First datasets. The talk was followed by Q&A session with PHD students. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2025 |
| Description | Presentation at National Independent Advisory Group, 11/12/24 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
| Results and Impact | Presentation of the project Cumulative Disadvantage in the Criminal Justice System at National Independent Advisory Group (NIAG) which influences policy change in relation to prisons, probation and youth justice. The presentation was followed by discussion on research impact and opportunities to engage with policy makers. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| Description | Presentation at User Representation Panel (URP) (online) 19/07/25 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
| Results and Impact | Introduced the research project Cumulative Disadvantage in the Criminal Justice System to the User Representation Panel (URP) to provide an opportunity to facilitate the views of justice system users in the research. The event was attended by representatives from the Traveler Movement, Empathy Souls, Wipers Youth CIC, PACT, Justice Innovation, Action for Race Equality, CLINKS and the Administrative Data Research UK included a discussion on research priorities and opportunities for collaboration. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| Description | Presentation at the Ministry of Justice Data First showcase (London), 24/06/25 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation at the Data First showcase hosted by the Ministry of Justice discussing what we have learnt about ethnic disparities in the justice system. The event was attended by a range of Criminal Justice stakeholders including practitioners from statutory and non-statutory organisations. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2025 |
| Description | Symposium on Ethnic Disparities in Sentencing 14/11/24, London School of Economics |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation of research findings at a Symposium on ethnic disparities in sentencing followed by discussion on the implication of the research evidence for policy and practice. The Symposium brought together researchers, practitioners, policy-makers, and third sector organisations and contributed to discussions on evidence on ethnic disparities in sentencing in the jurisdiction of England and Wales, and its implications in terms of sentencing practice, public policy, and future research priorities. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| Description | Unequal Justice blog - 9/10/25 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Blog to disseminate research findings to a wider audiences. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2025 |
| URL | https://blogs.plymouth.ac.uk/unequaljustice/2025/10/09/unequal-justice/ |