Socio-Emotional Characteristics in Early Childhood and Offending Behaviour in Adolescence

Approximately 80 percent of persistent offenders have their first interaction with the criminal justice system before reaching adulthood and the annual cost of late intervention is approximately £17 billion (MoJ, May 2022). Understanding the underlying mechanisms that place children at risk of becoming future offenders is a policy priority due to the high social and economic costs associated with crime. Existing literature shows that young offenders often exhibit poor socio-emotional development in early childhood (Murray et al. 2010, Moffitt 2018), are more likely to face school-related difficulties (e.g. absenteeism, exclusions) and attend schools located in economically disadvantaged areas (DfE, July 2023). Beyond studies using community samples and birth cohorts, little is known about how poor socio-emotional development affects adolescent offending behaviour and the pathways through which this can be mediated or moderated. It also remains unclear how early socio-emotional difficulties interact with specific characteristics of schools and local areas, and how this interaction may result in children's future involvement in crime.

This study will use the MoJ-DfE linked data which provides unique information on socio-emotional scales of children at the end of the school reception year from the Early Year Stage Foundation Profile (ESYFP) and administrative criminal records from the Police National Computer (PNC). Using this data, I will provide a detailed breakdown of childhood socio-emotional development and explore the pathways through which this affects adolescent offending behaviour. The study will then extend to a multi-level model to examine how specific characteristics of schools and Local Authorities (LAs) interact with children's socio-emotional development to shape criminal justice outcomes. The aims and objectives of the proposed project are aligned with the research priorities stated in MoJ-DfE (2023) and are summarized as follows:

Research Aim 1: To assess the relationship between childhood socio-emotional development and the probability of being cautioned or sentenced for an offence in adolescence.
To construct a socio-emotional profile for each child at the year of school reception.
To identify characteristics of early socio-emotional development in adolescents who have received cautions or sentences for serious violent crimes early on in their lives.

Research Aim 2: To determine potential mediators through which early socio-emotional difficulties shape offending behaviour in adolescence.
To quantify the impact of poor socio-emotional development on adverse educational outcomes (school-related difficulties and poor attainment).
To measure the mediating effect of adverse educational outcomes on the association between early socio-emotional difficulties and adolescent offending behaviour.

Research Aim 3: To evaluate how heterogeneity in schools and LAs interact with early socio-emotional development to shape offending behaviour in adolescence.
To document differences across schools (e.g. average Key Stage score, governance structure, etc.) and LAs (e.g. youth crime rates, per capita expenditure on children services, etc.) and their influence on adolescent offending behaviour.
To identify specific characteristics of schools and LAs that may lead children with poor socio-emotional development to engage in offending behaviour in adolescence.

It is crucial to identify early socio-emotional characteristics of children and other contextual factors, that could place them at increased risk of engaging in criminal activities as they transition into adolescence. Assessing these characteristics and the pathways through which these affect later-life outcomes can facilitate the development of early interventions and strategies to prevent children from becoming offenders later in life.