From the centre to the periphery: evaluating the Opportunity Areas programme

The UK is one of the most spatially unbalanced advanced economies in the world, with substantial geographic gaps in economic activity and growth between regions, especially when comparing London and the South East with the rest of the country. There is increasing concern about the most peripheral regions and local economies, especially post-industrial, coastal and rural areas - which often face acute social and economic challenges. Some post-industrial areas of the UK have never really recovered from the effects of deindustrialisation and have lasting scars, notably in terms of their local skills base. It is here where we see some of the most stark geographic gaps in education; for example, over two-thirds of people across many London boroughs hold degree level qualifications, compared to less than a fifth of people in coastal towns like Blackpool, post-industrial places like Doncaster, and rural localities like North East Lincolnshire.

The UK Government's Opportunity Areas programme was a £108million area-based intervention that set out to close these gaps in education and skills between places, specifically selecting 12 post-industrial, coastal and rural localities. It was the first of its kind to target peripheral places beyond urban centres, with ambitions to improve educational attainment, educational and career decision-making, and labour market access in these socio-economically marginalised areas. We propose to conduct the first quasi-experimental evaluation of the intervention to generate robust evidence on its impact and rich detail on the generative mechanisms driving any effects it had on these areas.

Working with the UK Government Department for Education, the Local Government Association and 12 Local Authorities where the intervention took place, we plan to carry out a substantial programme of knowledge exchange and research activities. The evaluation will take place across two sequential stages, with stage 1 isolating the impact of Opportunity Areas using large-scale administrative and survey data, followed by the purposeful selection of 'matched' localities to explain the mechanisms driving any identifiable impacts (stage 2). At stage 1, we plan to use both the Longitudinal Educational Outcomes (LEO) dataset and the longitudinal household survey, Understanding Society, providing granular detail on objective measures like education choices, attainment and earnings (using LEO), but also subjective measures about the value of education and career aspirations (drawing on Understanding Society). Using these data, our proposed quasi-experimental approach is aimed at isolating the impact that the intervention had over and above what was happening to outcomes in comparable areas. Based on this analysis, our selection of 6 'paired' fieldwork sites then allows us to elaborate on the mechanisms driving any identified impact through in-depth research with those designing, delivering and receiving the intervention.

At the heart of the proposed evaluation is a series of knowledge exchange activities that provides crucial input from our project partners throughout the evaluation, maximising its policy-relevance. It is an ideal time to provide a robust evaluation of Opportunity Areas to learn lessons for any future education and labour market area-based interventions, especially the new Priority Educational Investment Areas which launched in 2022 and absorbed Opportunity Areas. Our planned evaluation will produce evidence on what mechanisms are impactful in closing gaps in education and skills - which is vital to informing how this new intervention, and any future area-based interventions, are designed and delivered.