Is the rate of domestic violence decreasing or increasing? A re-analysis of the British Crime Survey

Is the rate of domestic violence going up or down? After over a decade of decline (1995-2009) the rate of domestic violence as reported by the British Crime Survey appears to have stabilised or started to increase. The British Crime Survey is one of the best if not the best surveys in the world in its measurement of domestic violence over time. In addition to a single measure over two decades, there has been experimentation with improved wording and methods of asking questions. However, different ways of collecting the data are showing different results: one finding, based on the main survey, which asks questions face-to-face, is showing an upturn in the rate of domestic violence, the other, based on the self-completion module also shows an upturn but not at a statistically significant level perhaps indicating stabilisation.

Resolving this ambiguity in the rate of change in domestic violence has important implications for policy makers. Enormous creative energy and resource has been expended in improving the policy environment so as to reduce gender-based violence against women and girls. This policy goal has been consistent across the change of government. There has been extraordinary success in driving down the rate of domestic violence. So the data suggesting that the rate of domestic violence is either increasing or stabilising rather than continuing to decline is acutely challenging to governmental policy makers and NGOs, with implications for policy and practice.

Is the rate for some sub-groups changing more than that for others? Policy responses would be different if sub-groups could be identified where the rate of change was greater or in a different direction to others. Identifying more vulnerable sub-groups might enable the targeting of scarce resources. It would also help the development of a deeper understanding of the causes of the violence, and the potential for further key sites of intervention.

The project will investigate the evidence of changes in the rate of domestic violence through an examination of the raw data of the British Crime Survey. It will consider whether methodological differences and changes underlie differences in reported rates of domestic violence. It will address definitional issues: whether the different units in which the violence is counted, producing rates of incidents, victims and prevalance make a difference. It will consider whether there are changes in the types of violence reported: is it more or less severe or frequent; does the inclusion or exclusion of sexual assault and stalking by partners make a difference to the summary trends? It will investigate whether there are changes in some groups rather than others. Is the gender profile changing? Are there differences in household structure and whether survivors stay living with partners or move on? Are there changes in economic position, in employment and unemployment? Is there any evidence that changes in the wider economic and social environment, such as the recession, has made a difference?

The project would investigate whether the apparent cessation in the decline in the rate of domestic violence is robust; whether the finding that the rate is increasing is more or less robust than the finding that it is stabilising; and whether some sub-groups are more affected than others. It would engage with policy makers, responding to their specific concerns, and offer rapid dissemination of findings through already established networks of which we are part.

The project aims to contribute to the development of policy and practice to reduce and eliminate domestic violence and violence against women and girls by analysing changes over time in domestic violence and violence against women using the British Crime Survey.

The project would engage with policy makers and practitioners who are already pursuing these goals and have already articulated needs for research-based information that are not currently met. For example, HM Government's refreshed 'Call to End Violence Against Women and Girls' launched in March 2012 has 100 action points, several of which could usefully draw on the data that this project would provide. Policy makers in this area need to know whether domestic violence is increasing, stabilised or decreasing, and the sub-groups who are most affected.

The team is already part of the relevant policy and pracitioner networks as a result of prior research that has been fruitfully used by these communities. Hence we can realistically anticipate rapid early policy and practitioner impacts.

Policy makers and practitioners to be engaged with include:
Government policy makers: policy makers on violence against women and girls in the Home Office, Ministry of Justice, Crown Prosecution Service, ACPO and other Departments that contribute to the Inter-Ministerial/Departmental Group on VAWG;
Local government: e.g. London Mayor's Office for Policing and Crime
Other relevant bodies: e.g. Equality and Human Rights Commission, All Party Parliamentary Group on Domestic and Sexual Violence; BCS team and user group;
Practitioners, including service providers and second tier organisations: Women's Aid, Respect, Ava, EVAW, Corporate Alliance Against Domestic Violence, Nia; the police.
European and international policy relevant bodies: EU Institute for Gender Equality, European Commission, European Parliament, EU Fundamental Rights Agency, UNESCO, UN Women.

It is intended to engage with policy makers and practitioners, through:
Contributing findings to meetings and conferences;
Organising a final workshop to disseminate findings to policy makers and practitioners;
Producing briefing notes for specific audiences and publishing in practitioner journals;
Developing a mini web-site and web-based materials.