Transportation and the socio-spatial dimensions of travel to work flows

Lead Research Organisation: University of Manchester
Department Name: Environment, Education and Development

Abstract

Numerous research studies use commuting data, collected through the Census of Population, to understand social, economic and environmental challenges in the UK. This commuting data has been used to understand patterns; answer questions regarding the relationship between housing and labour markets; and to see if travel behaviour is becoming more or less sustainable over time. However, there is lots of untapped potential for such data to be used to evaluate transport policy and investment decisions so resources are more effectively and efficiently targeted to places of need. In applied public policy a major shortcoming has been a lack of use of this data to support investment in transport which has major implications for economic growth. If transport investments are inefficiently targeted, this restricts the capacity of places to grow economies to their full potential. This wastes their resources by over investing in transport capacity in areas where it is not needed. Equally, it has long been argued that efficient investment in transport is crucial if labour market exclusion, particularly the case of deprived communities, is to be tackled. The aim of the research is to inform community transportation policy and investment and the socio-spatial dimensions of travel to work flows over time (2001-2011).
Our research develops a toolkit to help decision-makers better target investment in transport capacity and infrastructure. The toolkit includes a series of new classifications of commuting flows from the 2001 and 2011 Censuses. It will include a classification of newly developed official Workplace Zones for England to complement official residential population-based classifications alongside various population, deprivation, investment and infrastructure data. The toolkit will bring these classifications and datasets together online through various mapping and analysis tools to understand the dynamics of commuting between different types of residential and workplace locations over time and combine these datasets and analyses with locally-specific transport investment data. The methodology developed will be applied to England as a whole but we will use the Manchester as a test-case for our analysis and for development of the toolkit. The use of open source approaches to build the toolkit means that other locations will have the framework to develop their own toolkit. The flow and area-based (Workplace Zones) classifications for England will complement official ONS residential-based output area classification and existing indices of deprivation. This will be mapped in relation to key transport investments made in Manchester, using local administrative data and overlay these with the results of commuting analysis to support decision-making regarding future targeted public transport infrastructure investment.
The toolkit will be interactive so users can pose policy questions to explore commuting relationships between different places. The strength of this approach is that it will enable policy and decision-makers to test various scenarios for future transport investment depending on problems they have posed. In a hypothetical situation, a policymaker in might ask the question of whether a specific deprived community in their city is more or less connected into a major employment centre than another equally deprived community. The evidence can be used to target funding for an 'into-work-scheme' to help the most disconnected community. The toolkit allows the policymaker to explore levels of commuting and compare the level of connectivity of each neighbourhood to major employment centres. The underlying rationale for the research is that the toolkit will help deliver efficiencies in public and private sector investment. This is crucial at a time when the government is promoting the need for smarter economic growth but doing so in a challenging context in which public sector resources are scarce and the private sector is risk averse.

Planned Impact

The research aims and objectives have been informed by policy problems identified by our external partner and therefore have particular resonance with them. The challenge for us is to maximise the potential impact of our solutions to ensure that the research has relevance beyond our external partner. Our approach focuses on ensuring that both the research process and the research outcomes are accessible to a wide range of users. We are committed to ensuring that our research approach can be replicated by other users through online posting of the full documentation of the methodology, techniques and data sources used. The primary output of the research, an online toolkit, will be designed using open-source programming so that others can replicate it. The user interface and functionality will be influenced by a user needs and requirements analysis drawn from not only our external partner but also other potential users, so that the toolkit will be of use to multiple users. The toolkit visualisation could be further developed to visualise other flow data such as social networks, information flows, or energy and water usage, extending the impact of the research outputs beyond commuting data.
The primary beneficiary of the research will be our external partner, Manchester City Council (MCC), particularly the City Policy Unit who will use the research to inform transport investment and improve accessibility for deprived communities. The research can also be used to identify where behavioural change campaigns should be targeted to reduce reliance on automobile use. However there are other user groups within MCC that will find the research of use, including those involved in social policy, planning and regeneration, economic development and education. The use of Greater Manchester means that the results will also be of interest to the other nine metropolitan boroughs as well as the Greater Manchester Combined Authority and the Association of Greater Manchester Authorities who can use the outputs to understand the functional economy of the region. Other city-regional scale bodies, such as Transport for Greater Manchester and the Greater Manchester Local Enterprise Partnership, will also find the research of interest given the linkages between transport investment, commuting, and economic development, potentially influencing their investment policies designed to improve the city-regional economy. Due to the open-source nature of the research outputs other local authorities and city-regions will be able to draw on the research process and data sources and replicate the process in order to understand their own local dynamics and more effectively target their transport investments.
The private sector will also find the research of use as companies are increasingly developing business travel plans, are concerned with ensuring their employees have access to a range of travel options and interested in locating in areas where they can access a wide pool of employees. The public will also be able to use the research to inform house buying, as the toolkit will allow them to better understand commuting patterns in particular areas. Non-profit agencies will also find the research of interest. Through the toolkit they will be able to locate areas of deprivation and poor transport investment, lobby for improvements, and work with communities to develop alternative travel options.
The research outputs will allow these various bodies to make decisions that are directly linked to improving quality of life, reducing deprivation, economic investment and improving transport accessibility and access to low-carbon forms of transport. These benefits will have varying timescales, however the toolkit may be used first by private and non-profit groups followed later by public bodies due to the policy development process. Over the long-term the research could come to form a key tool for transport and investment decisions for a range of public bodies.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description This research project has developed a new flow-based classification of commuting that draws on origin-destination data collected as part of the 2011 Census of Population. Using k-means clustering applied to 49 commuter variables, the final classification exercise produced a cluster configuration consisting of nine Supergroups and 40 Groups. A selection of trends underlying the nine-fold Supergroup configuration revealed a great deal about the variegated structure and patterning of commuting in England and Wales which suggests that such a classification has potentially wide-ranging descriptive and analytical applications that can be used to better understand commuting in terms of research and policy. Each of the above classifications has a map of the flows, a statisitcal radial chart and a pen portrait provided on the following pages. You can also use an interactive version of the classifaction @ www.commute-flow.net which contains links to further documents and academic publications. The clusters were named in such a way as to not be offensive to users and to not contradict other existing official classifications e.g. the Classification of Workplace Zones developed by the University of Southampton. The nomenclature was tested at three workshops with policymakers and academics which were held in Manchester and Cardiff during 2016 and the names and descriptions were refined in light of feedback from participants. During these workshops we also received feedback on the potential policy implications and decision support utility of the classification and the online toolkit. Feedback from our workshops suggested there was appetite for the flow data and the classification to be made available online in an accessible and useable format. Policy makers in our two case study areas, Greater Manchester and Cardiff Capital Region offered positive support in exploring how the toolkit will be used to support their strategic city-region planning.
Under objective 2 we aimed to develop a classification that captured change between census periods and to enhance our understanding of the structure of commuting in England and Wales. It became apparent after testing that this was not possible because of the differences between 2001 and 2011 census data. Instead we developed a series of multi-nomial logistic regression models to measure the likelihood that certain types of commuters - defined using the Supergroup layer of the commuting typology - lived and worked in particular types of places and as a result would commute certain distances to work. These different places were identified using the official 2011 urban-rural classification and the 2011 local authority area-based classification classification.
There are of course limitations to the classification that need to be recognised alongside areas of research in need of further development. The many criticisms of snapshot census data apply in this context. There are inaccuracies in the registration of home and workplaces which are difficult to identify. The classification also excludes home-working, international commuting and second home ownership. Further research could certainly extend the analysis to consider the effects of international commuting using data within the Special Workplace Statistics or using the real-time data sources that are increasingly becoming available. The classification captures commuting between England and Wales but it does not capture cross-commuting between England and Scotland. We also see opportunities to apply our methodology to commuting data in other countries which collect origin destination data such as the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics data in the USA. The classification is also weak in capturing the effects of agriculture, information services, utilities and some of the creative occupations such as media services. The classification revealed a unique London-effect that was somewhat smoothed away in the classification. Isolating London and rerunning the classification could reveal further important structures and patterns in the commuting profile of people living and working in the Capital that are seemingly very distinctive when compared to England and Wales as a whole.
One of the most significant outcomes that our research has achieved has been making the classification developed here easily accessible to the user community. Previously flow-data has been underutilised and poorly understood within many policy domains due to the complexity involved in accessing and interpreting the flow datasets thus discouraging their adoption in research and policy support. Coupled with this issue, we found in our workshops that users also need to have some geoprocessing skills and a machine that is computationally powerful enough to accommodate sizable data files. While this might be the case in the research community it is not necessarily the case on local government and transport authorities. The development of the online toolkit 'Commute-flow' an accessible online decision-support system to accommodate the classification together with in-built analytical tools is enabling users to interrogate the commuting flow data and the associated classification without needing advanced processing or geoprocessing capabilities.
Exploitation Route Policy Impact:
Having worked closely with Transport for Greater Manchester (TfGM) and their partners and Cardiff Capital Region to test the commute-flow classification and the online toolkit at this stage they are the best informed about how they can use the research outputs to support their decision making. During our three workshops in Manchester and Cardiff a range of stakeholders from the policy community were in attendance. This included TfGM, Transport for the North, Mersey Travel, Cardiff, Swansea, Leeds and Liverpool city councils, a number of think tanks (e.g. CLES, FOE, New Economy) and consultants from Arup to name a few. As we disseminate the toolkit further we envisage other city-regions across England via the Core Cities group to benefit from the toolkit. We have also had enquires about developing the toolkit further to meet specific needs of stakeholders responsible for transport and spatial planning.
Academic Impact:
We have so far presented our research findings at two academic conferences and four academic seminars in Manchester, Cardiff, Leeds and Newcastle helping to disseminate what we have done to the academic community. Further conference presentations are planned for 2017 and a number of journal papers have been submitted and are in preparation. We also intend to discuss with the UK Data Service the possibility of providing the commute flow typology via their Census Service so as to give direct access to the source data.
All computer code for the toolkit is being made available as open source from GitHub @ https://github.com/spa-lab/commute-flow/
We are keen to follow this up with an analysis of the 2021 Census of population when once the commuting data is published.
Sectors Communities and Social Services/Policy,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice,Transport,Other

URL http://www.commute-flow.net/
 
Description We continue to deliver talks and presentations to the policy community to disseminate our findings and publicise the toolkit. The research is informing the Cardiff Capitol Region regional plan and the Tyne and Wear strategic transport plan. Our findings have been used in a number of policy focused reports. These include the Cardiff Capital Region (https://www.cardiffcapitalregion.wales/documents/), THe UK 2070 Commission (http://uk2070.org.uk/) and the recently launched University of Cambridge Bennett Institute (https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/media/uploads/files/Bennett_Insitute_Launch_Report.pdf).
First Year Of Impact 2018
Sector Communities and Social Services/Policy,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice,Transport,Other
Impact Types Policy & public services

 
Description Cardiff Capital Region
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
URL https://cardiffcapitalregion.com/
 
Description Understanding commuting patterns in South Wales
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
URL https://www.cardiffcapitalregion.wales/documents
 
Title Commute-flow model 
Description We developed a series of multinomial logistic regression models to measure the likelihood that certain types of commuters - defined using the Supergroup layer of the commuting typology - lived and worked in particular types of places and as a result would commute certain distances to work. These different places were identified using the official 2011 urban-rural classification and the 2011 local authority area-based classification classification. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact We expect the methods to be used by others as we further disseminate our research. 
URL http://www.commute-flow.net/
 
Title European Climate Risk Typology 
Description This research uses the typology methodology developed in commute flow as the basis for the climate risk methodology. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Impact on EU wide climate change understanding and policy implications. 
URL http://european-crt.org/
 
Title Commute-flow database 
Description We have developed a two-tier geodemographic typology of commuting patterns with 9 super-groups and a total of 40 groups. The 'flow-data' is available as a GIS database. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2016 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact We expect the methods to be used by others as we further disseminate our research. 
URL http://www.commute-flow.net/
 
Title commute-flow 
Description Commute-flow is a brand new geodemographic classification of commuting flows for England and Wales based on origin-destination data from the 2011 Census that has been used to analyse the spatial dynamics of commuting. The toolkit presents the data outputs in order to help policy makers use the data to support transport investment decisions and understand patterns of commuting. The toolkit allows you to explore levels of commuting and compare the level of connectivity of each neighbourhood to major employment centres. 
Type Of Technology Webtool/Application 
Year Produced 2016 
Impact We expect the toolkit to be used by others as we further disseminate our research. It is particularly aimed at transport planners, strategic planners and also those involved in bringing forward housing and employment land for future development. 
URL http://www.commute-flow.net/
 
Company Name TellUs Toolkit Ltd 
Description The company focuses on location analytics, pinpointing the vital information, connections and patterns you need to make better, more insightful decisions. TellUs Toolkit builds bespoke web-based decision support systems based on open source GIS technology and software. 
Year Established 2015 
Impact The company works with a number of private sector businesses in the housebuilding sector to exploit spatial data to support better informed decision making.
Website http://www.tellus-toolkit.com/
 
Description Commuting flows analysis and policy applications 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Promoting our commute-flow research to a professional/industry focused audience across Greater Manchester of around 25 people discussing and debating the role of transport infrastructure for economic development and growth.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL https://www.pro-manchester.co.uk/
 
Description GIS tools in academic research - informing policy and strategy 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presentation as part of the global 'GIS day' - GIS for Public Policy: joining up the dots and shaping a better future. Showing how our commute-flow research and online mapping toolkit can support spatial decision making.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.neweconomymanchester.com/news-events/presentation-slides
 
Description Planning for growth: the rhetoric and reality of the Northern Powerhouse 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Talk about the Northern Power House which includes analysis from commute-flow to understanding where people live and go to work and how. This was aimed at a professional, public policy audience bringing in people from across W. Yorkshire.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL https://www.huddersfieldcivicsociety.org.uk/events/30-planning-for-growth-the-rhetoric-and-reality-o...