Public Opinion and Britain's Relationship with Europe

Although they differ in their readiness to put the issue before voters, all of Britain's political parties now take the view that there should not be any significant change in the UK's relationship with the EU without the consent of voters as expressed in a referendum. As a result, no attempt to provide impartial evidence on the future of that relationship can be complete without taking public opinion into account. However, systematic impartial evidence can be difficult to ascertain both because the evidence itself is scattered across a disparate variety of sources and because protagonists in the debate prefer to promote the evidence of support for their views rather than a balanced account.
This proposal is for a set of knowledge exchange activities designed to overcome these obstacles, together with some academic writing and research that will help fill some of the gaps in the relevant knowledge base. In particular, we propose, (i) the development of a website facility that brings the existing survey and polling evidence on attitudes towards Britain's relationship with Europe into one place, accompanied by independent commentary, (ii) the provision of a set of briefing papers on specific topics, supplemented by oral presentations to those with a close professional interest in the subject, and (iii) the submission of two articles to academic journals, facilitated in part by the collection of new survey data.
The website facility would bring together (i) all the key readings on public attitudes to Europe provided by commercial polling companies since 2010, and (ii) the key UK data from long running major academic and governmental surveys, (iii) access to key EU-wide attitudes where these are systematically available from cross-national sources for the period since 2004. The database would contain key methodological details for each poll/question and use the latest data visualisation and graphical facilities to make the statistical material as accessible as possible.
In addition the website facility would provide a regular commentary (blog) on various aspects of public attitudes towards the EU. The writing of a blog would be initiated either (i) the release of a new output by the project itself (ii) on the occasion of events and media stories to which public opinion is pertinent, or (iii) the publication of new polling/survey evidence. The commentaries would be supplied principally by the applicant but guest blogs would also be sought from those with relevant expertise. The facility would also provide a bibliography of relevant literature.
The briefing papers, of which at least six would be produced, will provide an introduction to the evidence on a particular topic. Attractively designed and written in an accessible style, they would be aimed at the non-academic professional and interested lay public. Presentations based on the findings of the briefings would be made at two off the record seminars held near SW1 and aimed at policy makers with a close professional interest in the subject. One or more similar seminars will also be offered to UK government officials.
The academic articles would focus on (i) the extent to which instrumental evaluations and cultural concerns interact with each other in shaping attitudes towards the EU in the UK and in so doing have helped created a social division between 'winners ' and 'losers', and (ii) the degree to which attitudes towards the EU may be contingent on party stances and on potential changes to the rules and competences of the EU. The latter of these two pieces of work in particular would be facilitated by the inclusion of a module of 20 questions on the 2015 British Social Attitudes survey, the fieldwork for which would begin shortly after the 2015 general election.This new data collection will extend one of the longest running time series on the subject as well as cover topics, such as attitudes to changing the competences of the EU, hitherto little addressed.

Public opinion - and the interpretation thereof - has already had a substantial impact on policy towards Britain's relationship with the EU. Perceived public hostility as registered through the electoral success of UKIP has impelled the current Prime Minister to promise a renegotiation of Britain's terms of membership, to be followed by a referendum on whether the country should remain a member. Similarly, concern about levels of immigration from the EU has seen ministers propose an increase in the length of the time that someone should have been resident in the UK before being eligible for welfare benefits, as well as an end to the payment of child benefit in respect of family members not resident in the UK. Meanwhile, although they have adopted a less Eurosceptic stance, the opposition Labour party has backed these restrictions on welfare and accepted the provisions of legislation passed by the current government that requires a referendum be held before any further significant transfer of powers to the EU takes place.
This project will collate, make accessible and analyse the public attitudes that have already proven so influential and may eventually prove decisive. In so doing it will help identify what are the key considerations that impel people to support or oppose Britain's membership of the EU and the circumstances and conditions that might make continued membership more or less acceptable. Such information is likely to be regarded as invaluable intelligence by those on all sides of the argument in devising their strategies, as well as by those organisations whose future could well be significantly affected by the decisions that are eventually taken.
The community of those with a potential interest in the project is thus large and includes:
UK (and devolved) ministers, politicians and campaigners from all parties
The European Commission and European Parliament
Thank tanks with an interest in Europe such as Open Europe and the Institute for Public Policy Research.
Pressure groups with an interest in the future of Britain's relationship with Europe, including the CBI, the TUC, British Influence, the European Movement, the Campaign for an Independent Britain and Migration Watch.
The organisers of any putative referendum campaigns that may emerge after the 2015 general election.
Businesses, trade unions and investment institutions
Journalists both north and south of the border, together with journalists from outside the UK
Diplomatic representatives of overseas governments, and especially representatives or other European states.
Members of the general public with an interest in politics and/or the UK's relationship with the EU.

The project thus potentially has important implications for both the wealth and the culture of the United Kingdom. In so far as the project informs the strategies of key participants in the debate, it could materially affect the stances taken by both sides in any negotiations that take place between the UK government and the rest of the EU, as well as the arguments that are put before the public in any eventual referendum. Even in the absence of any steps towards holding a referendum, the project could be expected to inform the policy stances of the UK government and political parties towards Britain's future relationship with the EU. In so far as the findings on public opinion inform the investment decisions made by business, the project could also affect the future economic wellbeing of the UK. Meanwhile, the culture of the UK will benefit from enhanced media understanding and reporting of the evidence on attitudes towards the EU, thereby making journalists more effective at advancing public understanding of the debate about Europe.
It is anticipated this impact will primarily arise following the establishment of the proposed website after approximately 5-6 months and be advanced further through the provision of research briefings throughout the lifetime of the project.