The Causes and Consequences of the Great Irish Famine

Was early 19th century Ireland overpopulated and fertility at an unsustainable level, or did other factors cause the Great Irish Famine? Did the famine-induced migration to Britain spread infectious diseases and have a substantial impact on British mortality rates? Similarly, what impact did the famine have on the British labour force and economy generally? This research project will answer these questions.

The Great Famine was a watershed in global history. It was the last major famine to occur in a Western economy, and had long-run impacts. The enduring legacy of the famine has sparked the interest of numerous novelists and playwrights.

Earlier this year, news that media group Channel 4 was considering commissioning a Great Famine-based sitcom stoked an intense public debate. Many felt that this would trivialise the tragedy. The length and breadth of this debate underlined the immense interest that still surrounds the famine. However, the spectrum of opinions as to the causes and consequences of the famine also highlighted the need for further historical research.

"Let the Data Speak"

Joel Mokyr's influential 1983 book "Why Ireland Starved" redefined famine research. Before, famine-related research was largely based on qualitative assessments that left ample room for both conjecture and, rhetoric, and errors. Unlike previous researchers, Mokyr, wanted to let the data decide whether or not it was Ireland's overpopulation that caused the famine. To do this he gathered data on the population density of Irish regions and found that it was Ireland's least densely populated regions that were the ones that suffered worse during the famine. Mokyr's test did not support the overpopulation theory (captured by what is known as the Malthusian model).

"I hasten to add that the Malthusian model cannot be considered to have been "refuted" by this finding. For one thing, the possibility that more sophisticated econometric techniques and improved data will reverse the finding cannot be ruled out." (Mokyr, 1983).

Whilst striking, Mokyr's analysis was based on variation between relatively few data points (Ireland's 32 counties), as the quote above testifies. This study is motivated by the above quote. Better data (from over 3,000 civil parishes) and more sophisticated econometric techniques exist, and therefore Mokyr's findings can at last be re-evaluated, something this project will do.

Mokyr's philosophy of "letting the data speak," can also be applied to help uncover some of the Great Famine's consequences. Specifically, this project will quantify the impact that famine-induced migration had on Britain.

The famine caused a mass movement of the Irish population to Britain. Before the famine, there were around 430,000 Irish born in Britain. By 1851, the Irish-born population had grown to 730,000. This crisis-driven mass-migration echoes Europe's migration crisis today, as people flea from war-torn and economically desolate nations in Africa and Asia. In this sense, the Great Irish Famine provides a form of historical natural experiment from which we can learn from and gain a greater understanding of the consequences of mass migrations.

What effect did the Irish famine have on Britain? This research will use newly available census data (released as part of the ESRC-funded ICeM project) to uncover how the Irish famine influenced the British economy and labour force. For example, did the influx of Irish in certain cities such as Liverpool and Manchester boost demand and help to speed up economic growth, or did this migration depress the wages of locals and therefore stifle economic advancement? In addition, this project will also use newly available records of regional mortality to calculate what impact, if any, the Great Famine had on mortality in England and Wales. If the Irish famine caused elevated levels of mortality, this implies that the ultimate death toll of the Irish famine is underestimated.

This project has the potential for impact across many spheres.

Policy Makers

The results of this project will inform policy makers both within in the UK and internationally. Recent decades have witnessed dramatic improvements in living standards in some of the world's least developed nations. However, food security remains an important issue in the world's poorest areas and population growth forecasts and climate change may make food security a pertinent issue in coming years. Using richer data sources, I will be able to examine the importance of "population pressure" as a factor that triggers food insecurity. Furthermore, I will be able to use these high-resolution data to identify regions that suffered the most during the famine and understand the reasons why they bore the brunt of the dearth (better infrastructure, access to markets, food aid). A better understanding of these mechanisms will inform governments and international humanitarian organisation.

The mass inward migration experienced by European nations has received much media attention in the last year. Current debate in policy circles surrounds the effect of mass migration, both in terms of cultural assimilation and economic activity. This project will inform this debate. Using data on Irish migration in Britain, I will be able to examine and measure the impact of mass migration on medium to long-run outcomes such as the labour force composition, patents and technological adaptation, and economic growth. The benefit of studying this topic is that it will either highlight or downplay the positive aspects of mass migration, and inform policy makers as to the potential benefits and/or consequences of migration. Guiding policy in this arena could improve the well-being of both host populations and migrants alike.

Cultural Impact

The Great Irish Famine was an event of great cultural significance worldwide. This tragedy has been imprinted in literature, art, and song. The cultural importance of this event to the public is symbolised in the success of the Irish Famine Museum in Strokestown, County Roscommon. This project will contribute where relevant to the various exhibitions and events hosted by it, for example speaking at their summer school. I will also use the results of this project to inform other museum exhibits, for example like "Ireland's Great Hunger Museum" at Quinnipiac University. In addition, I will organise a historical exhibition as part of West Belfast's Spring Festival to disseminate my findings to the general public and thus promote a greater awareness and appreciation of the causes and consequences of the Irish famine.

Digital Impact

This project will make extensive use of digital resources to reach out and engage the public. A project-specific website will be the launch pad for this engagement. This website and accompanying social media profile will act as a portal and encourage public engagement to keep stakeholders engaged in the project's progress and events. Furthermore, I will oversee the development of a mobile app designed to inform the public of local famine histories. This app will be of great interest to tourists visiting Ireland, as it will inform them of the pre- and post-famine population characteristics for any given parish in Ireland. This will raise awareness of local famine histories and the project overall.

Educational Impact

The famine features as a core subject on the Irish Junior Certificate exam. Thus, this project's findings will benefit secondary school students in the Republic of Ireland. I will draw awareness to the educational benefits through school visits that showcase the project. I will demonstrate how the project's research adds to the historiography of the famine that existing school textbooks portray. This project's results have the potential to be included in the national history curriculum in Irish secondary schools.