Brexit, trade, migration and higher education

Brexit is an unprecedented development with implications in almost every domain of UK higher education (HE) and a range of possible forms and consequences for individual UK HEIs, with marked potential for differential effects (e.g. in research capability, international students, staffing, mission, income) across the variation of HEI types. Though Brexit has many possible forms, in any form it is likely to disrupt existing projects, networks and activities, and could imply sharp reductions in staff, students and/or income, in some or all HEIs. It also calls for new and innovative lines of institutional and discipline-based development on and off shore.In an uncertain and fast changing setting characterised by multiple possibilities and sudden shocks, HEIs will be required to monitor, respond, adjust, strategize, reorient and initiate with unprecedented speed and effectiveness; to build new relations and activity portfolios in Europe and beyond; and to grapple with new challenges to human resource management, risk management, financial sustainability, mission, governance and local implementation systems.

This research investigates the policy implications, implementation and consequences of Brexit for UK HE, in two priority areas identified by the Economic and Social Research Council: implications of Brexit for migration, and impacts in the economy and future trade arrangements. UK higher education institutions (HEIs) are extensively engaged in Europe and in this sector EU relations have been unambiguously positive and productive. While there is a range of possible Brexit scenarios, UK HE is closely affected by the Brexit-related policy settings for staff mobility, retention and recruitment ('migration'); for international student policy and regulation, with consequences for tuition revenues and balance sheets ('trade'); and by the effects of Brexit in research relations between UK and European HEIs. Research papers co-authored with colleagues in Europe outweigh total papers co-authored with US and other English-speaking countries, more than 20 per cent of UK R&D funding is from international sources with much from collaborative European research schemes. The role of UK universities in Europe is central to their outstanding global research performance: UK accounts for 3.2 per cent of global R&D spending, 9.5 per cent of scientific papers downloaded, 11.6 per cent of citations, and 15.9 per cent of the most highly-cited papers. EU frameworks enable many UK researchers to lead, while sharing the best ideas and people from other EU member countries. The research capacity and reputation of UK HEIs also underpins the nation's role as the world's second largest exporter of international education after the US. The government has stated that it hopes to raise education exports by almost 50 per cent to £30 billion pa in 2020.

The main data collection will consist of qualitative case studies in 12 UK HEIs, with participating institutions selected from all four nations and illustrating the diversity of the sector. There will be a least 120 semi-structured interviews, with senior academic leaders of HEIs, chief financial officers, heads of human resources, executive deans in three disciplines (health, technology, social science), up to three research professors per HEI from these disciplines, and heads of student unions. The project will also conduct policy-oriented seminars which will have both data gathering and dissemination/public discussion purposes. The practical outcomes of the research are (a) through research, public events and briefings, to draw to the attention of policy makers and public the implications of different Brexit scenarios in higher education, (b) within HE, to investigate and make recommendations on the capacity of UK HEIs to respond effectively to the challenges triggered by Brexit under the different possible Brexit scenarios, in the context also of other policy developments (Office for Students, TEF).

Who will benefit from this research? The research investigates the policy implications, implementation and consequences of Brexit for UK higher education institutions (HEIs). UK HEIs are extensively engaged in Europe, and this is foundational to their leading world role in research, and partly through their research reputation, international education exports. HEIs will be closely affected by Brexit-related policy settings for staff mobility, retention and recruitment; for international student policy and regulation, with effects in tuition revenues and balance sheets; and by the effects of Brexit in research relations between UK HEIs and European universities. While there are many possible forms of Brexit in HE, regardless it is likely to disrupt existing projects, networks and activities; could imply sharp reductions in staff, students and/or income, in some or all HEIs; and will trigger new networks, strategies and initiatives. Brexit also has differential implications and impacts according to the status, resources, activity profiles and European engagement of HEIs. The beneficiaries will be (a) policy makers and system regulators in relation to HE; (b) national organisations and public and semi-public agencies interested in HE policy, such as Universities UK, GuildHE, National Union of Students, the HE Academy, the Society for Research into HE, the National Centre for Universities and Business, etc.; (c) HEI leaders, research leaders and governing bodies across the HE sector, including HEIs in all four nations and private as well as public providers; (d) the media and the public.

How will they benefit from this research? The project will provide early policy-related insight into issues and problems of UK HE in the face of large-scale changes to national and educational relations with Europe. It also makes a longer contribution to knowledge in the sociology of HE, generating insight into the dynamics and management of large complex public organisations, HEIs, at a time of exceptional volatility, potential transformation and unusual scope for agency and contingency. For (a) policy makers it provides crucial intelligence in relation to the implications and consequences in HE of the various Brexit scenarios, pointing to domains where action is needed to safeguard national interests; for (b) national organisations and public agencies in the HE field it provides material for evidenced-based policy discourse across the Brexit-affected areas; for (c) HEIs and their leaders it provides not only relevant evidence-based materials but shared insights in relation to Brexit-induced functions of policy monitoring, strategy, risk management, financial management, innovation and rapid and effective policy implementation. The research aims to contribute to the portfolio of Brexit-related options available to HEIs.

What will be done to ensure that they have the opportunity to benefit from this activity? Academic outcomes will be journal papers and a monograph, but public engagement, policy advice and user impact will not be 'after the research', they will be continuous during the project and will guide its evolution and use in a fast-changing policy setting. The project will be advised by an 8-person committee of stakeholders and research users, maintain an active website and social media, and conduct two one-day national seminars focused on primary aspects of UK HE and Brexit. There will be regular 2-page Policy Briefs for policy makers and/or HEI executive leaders, providing (1) background on HE and Brexit, (2) summaries from the project research as they emerge. Late in the project there will be a stakeholders meeting to discuss dissemination. Full project papers will be circulated first in working paper format to facilitate discussion. Public communications will be managed cooperatively with the UK in a Changing Europe initiative. There is potential for joint events and jointly published research papers, and combined media work.