Public Preferences and Reactions during the Brexit Process

The UK government is now attempting to implement the instruction to secure the UK's withdrawal from membership of the European Union ('Brexit') given it by the electorate in the referendum held on June 23 2016. This withdrawal represents one of the most momentous changes in UK government policy since 1945. However, it has still left open a wide range of possible options for and decisions to make about the future relationship between the UK and the EU, while the merits of various different options are the subject of intense debate. At the same time, Brexit potentially has important implications for the territorial integrity of the UK and for the future of its political parties.

This project will, first of all, track and analyse what kind of future relationship between the UK and the EU voters would like to see put in place and monitor voters' reactions to the progress of the negotiations between the UK and the EU. In so doing it will focus in particular on whether voters' preferences and reactions are shaped by the perceived transactional (and especially economic) costs and benefits of withdrawal, or whether they reflect voters' prior predispositions (such as how they voted in the referendum) and sense of identity. Of particular interest is whether there is any evidence that, as a result of having held the referendum, the latter may have become more important in shaping voters' attitudes towards the EU.

At the same time, the project will assess the potentially disruptive consequences of Brexit for Britain's political future. Unlike England and Wales, Scotland voted to remain in the EU and the Scottish Government wishes to maintain a close relationship with the EU - perhaps by seeking membership for Scotland in its own right. The project will track and analyse both whether there is public support north of the border for a closer relationship with the EU and the impact that Brexit is having on support for Scottish independence. Meanwhile, the supporters of all political parties (apart from UKIP) were divided between backing Remain and voting Leave in a contest in which attitudes towards the merits of having a more less diverse society displaced arguments about whether government should be more or less active in pursuing a more equal society that usually dominate in a general election. If Brexit remains (as seems likely) the central focus of British political debate, it is possible that the existing coalitions of support enjoyed by the Conservatives and Labour will be frayed or even fracture. The project will thus analyse whether there is any evidence that this is proving to be the case.

In pursuit of these objectives, the project will both undertake its own new survey research and monitor and make easily accessible the results of published opinion polls. The new survey research (undertaken both across Britain as a whole and Scotland in particular) will focus both on short-term changes in voters' attitudes and evaluations during the course of the negotiations and on the long-term impact the Brexit process is having on the structure of political attitudes in the UK. All data and analysis will be made freely and regularly available to anyone with an interest in the subject via two well-established websites, activity that will be supplemented by public and private seminar presentations. As a result, the project is designed to ensure that all those with responsibility for taking decisions in respect of Brexit have easy access to the best available information on public attitudes towards the process of withdrawal, while at the same time helping to ensure that there is adequate academic investigation into the impact of Brexit on the distribution and structure of political attitudes in the UK.

The decision to leave the European Union is one of the biggest policy decisions made by the UK in the post-war era. How that decision is executed potentially has fundamental implications both for the future of the UK in particular and for the EU as a whole. Equally, a wide range of sectoral organisations within the UK and the EU have a vested interest in the outcome of the negotiations. Consequently, this research will be of interest to a very wide audience, including the following:

UK government ministers and civil servants
Scottish government ministers and civil servants
MPs and Lords of all parties
Diplomatic representatives of other EU countries (and by extension, their governments)
European Commission
European Parliament
Journalists in the UK and in the rest of the EU
Think tanks, lobbying organisations, businesses and trade unions with an interest in Brexit
The interested public

The decision to leave the EU was precipitated by UK public opinion, and thus the Brexit negotiations are the product of an instruction given to their government by UK voters. The government is thus under pressure to deliver an outcome that satisfies those voters, and for which it will be accountable at the next UK election. Thus to be effective public policy needs to be informed by an understanding of how the UK public wants the decision to leave carried through, and how voters are reacting to the progress of the negotiations. That implies in turn that those with whom the UK government is negotiating also need to understand the public pressures to which that government is trying to respond, as do those sectoral organisations who are trying to shape the UK's negotiating stance. Meanwhile, given that the Scottish Government is pursuing the possibility of a 'soft' Brexit settlement for Scotland and is potentially making a decision on whether or not to hold a second independence referendum conditional on whether that objective is achieved, both it and the UK government need to be aware of the particular contours of public attitudes towards Brexit north of the border and how the reactions of voters in Scotland to the Brexit negotiations are or are not influencing their attitudes towards how Scotland should be governed.

Thanks to its importance, the Brexit negotiations can be expected to secure widespread media coverage. Meanwhile, much of the public debate about them will be filtered through the partisan lens of those who campaigned for and against leaving the EU. Journalists and their audience will thus be in need of impartial evidence on where public opinion does stand on the key issues at stake.

This project will address these needs by providing impartial information and analysis on what the UK public expects from Brexit and how voters are reacting to the negotiations as they develop. It will do so, not only by generating and analysing its own research data but also by collating, making accessible and providing commentary on the findings of relevant opinion polls. All of the data and analysis will be made available speedily via two well-established websites that already have many users from the above communities and are promoted via social media, and thus will be able to inform the policy process as it unfolds. In addition, the project will present its findings at a number of public and private seminars aimed at key stakeholders, with many of whom the project already has close connections.

The project aims to inform rather than influence the decisions made and stances taken by stakeholders. Its 'impact' will thus rest on the use that those stakeholders decide to make of the research. However, the publicity attracted by and the interest shown in the work associated with Prof. Curtice's Senior Fellowship gives every reason to believe that stakeholders will wish to appraise themselves of the findings.