Citizens' Expectations on Brexit Outcomes: 'Fact' Transmission and Persuasive Power in a Digital World

This collaborative project between the Neuropolitics Research Lab (NRlabs), at the University of Edinburgh and Full Fact, the UK's independent fact-checking organization, employs neuroscientific, psychological and behavioural insights to help us to understand what makes Brexit-related claims spread on digital platforms. Using cutting edge scientific techniques in big data analysis this project offers new insights into how citizens' expectations on Brexit and its consequences are shaped in an increasingly digital world. It will inform organisations on how to communicate what is often dry and complex information related to Brexit in a credible, trustworthy and memorable way using digital communications. These insights will be essential for the strategic management, implementation and public communication of the Article 50 process for the UK's withdrawal from the EU.

The question of what constitutes a fact (or an alternative fact) has perhaps never been more salient in public debate. The thirst for 'facts' during the Brexit referendum campaign was a key feature of public debate as was the question of whose facts count. The role of experts in the delivery of factual information came under close scrutiny and became a substantive feature of campaign dialogues. The question of trust and authority in information transmission has been under serious challenge. Citizens' expectations of Brexit and its consequences are, at least in part, shaped by their evaluation of the facts - but how do they decide what is a trustworthy fact? What factors lead them to imbue some sources of information with greater authority than others and under what circumstances do they choose to engage with, share or champion certain 'facts'? How does the context in which 'facts' are disseminated shape the expectations of the citizens on Brexit?

Digital technology and online communication platforms such as Twitter and Facebook, play an increasingly important role in the public communication of both information and misinformation. To date, however, we have little information on how 'facts' transmitted in these digital platforms are internalized by recipients and on how this information impacts on citizens' expectations. We investigate how membership of a specific social media bubble impacts on the evaluation of the information received; how the status of the sender or even the content of the communication (whether it contains an image or a web link) matters; and how the nature of the information received, confirmatory or challenging of previous knowledge, impacts on fact transmission to different publics.

This project builds on the extensive engagement of two research teams on Brexit-related research and with the UK in a Changing Europe team. Both teams are engaged at the highest level in stakeholder engagement and the project is built on a co-production model, ensuring that the issues addressed are of direct interest to those most likely to utilise the insights developed directly in their daily work. The project is designed in close collaboration with stakeholders to ensure that it can adapt swiftly to maintain relevance in the fast-moving Brexit environment. The project has access to a unique social media data-base of over 40 million tweets that NRlabs has collected on the Brexit debate since August 2015; the cutting edge skills and facilities for conducting experimental research at NRlabs; and ensures daily policy relevance through Full Fact's engagement, nationally and internationally, in the fact checking environment. The contribution of this project addresses the very heart of the mission of the UK in a Changing Europe programme - to be the authoritative source for independent research on UK-EU relations, underpinned by scientific excellence and generating and communicating innovative research with real world impact.

Fact-checkers and Public Engagement Organisations:
This research will feed directly into Full Fact's work and has direct application to the UK in a Changing Europe programme's work, guaranteeing direct research impact. Understanding how a piece of information comes to be perceived as a fact, how this varies between groups and according to the characteristics of the communication, the status of the communicator and the context in which communication takes place is essential for the effective communication of factual information on Article 50 and the Brexit process more generally.

Policy-makers dealing with Brexit:
Harnessing insights from political science and public policy experts and working with psychologists, information scientists and cognitive neuroscientists, NRlabs has developed close links with government officials, as well as public and private users interested in gaining new insights into the psychology behind decision processes. In addition to the expected impact of our Brexit-related research findings (such as citations in the international press and the House of Lords report on Brexit; contributions to House of Common's inquiries on Brexit; Brexit MOOC; European Futures web platform; Laura Cram's role as the Scottish Housing Federation's 'Brexpert' and regular monthly contributions to their in-house publication; regular expert panel appearances; school events; public exhibitions; and providing overnight EU referendum analysis for STV), one of NRlabs major impacts has been our role in encouraging innovative patterns of joint working between government officials, policy practitioners and academics at a fundamental level thus helping to develop the very practice of making policies. This innovative and intensive model of co-production was noted as an important outcome of a major impact event on Brexit, that we organized 12-13 Dec, just prior to the release of the Scottish Government's Brexit plan. A second Scottish Government workshop to run in April 2017, will employ this same co-production model, examining citizens' expectations of Brexit outcomes.

Influencers of public debate on Brexit and beyond:
Full Fact has worked with many of the major influencers of public debate, from the ESRC, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the Office for National Statistics, the UK Statistics Authority, Wikimedia UK, the House of Commons Library and Parliamentary Office for Science and Technology at the information-providers end of the scale, through to national media such as the BBC, ITV News, Sky News and LBC, and membership organisations including 38 Degrees and the Federation of Small Businesses. Full Fact also has well developed relationships with the International Fact-Checking Network, and strong links with fact-checkers in Argentina, South Africa and the USA, where there is huge demand for this work. The unique nature of this collaboration brings significant added value to existing work on big data and the digital environment in the Brexit policy space and has potential for extension to other policy debates and electoral campaigns. Full Fact is working to predict and preempt information gaps before the 2020 election so that the public debate can happen on a solid footing. Our regular sand-pits are designed to ensure involvement of these stakeholders in the digital data analysis and in the conception, design and execution of the pilot experiments throughout the project.

Polling Agencies:
NRlabs tackles political and policy-relevant issues in a transdisciplinary environment using a neuropolitical perspective. The unique insights generated into citizen expectations, through the combination of psycho-social, behavioural and big data analysis, provide a powerful compliment to existing opinion poll data. Polling experts, including current UK and EU fellow, John Curtice, IPSOS Mori and Yougov will be invited to participate in our regular sand-pits to help develop and pilot our experimental interventions.