ORA (Round 5) Towards realistic computational models of social influence dynamics

Recently, many societies shifted towards more polarization and volatility in opinions, for example in attitudes about immigration or climate policy, but underlying reasons are poorly understood. A key obstacle is that opinion dynamics in society involve a complex micro-macro interaction between fundamental interpersonal processes of social influence, meso-level conditions like network structures, and macro-level outcomes, like polarization in opinion distributions. Agent-based simulation models (ABM) offer powerful tools to bridge theoretically micro-level processes and macro-level dynamics. However, ABM of social influence hitherto fails to inform empirical research and policy. Two major roadblocks are 1) a lack of theoretical integration of the large variety of models and 2) a lack of empirical tests of model assumptions and predictions.

ToRealSim is a unique effort by a consortium of leading experts in ABM and empirical research to overcome both roadblocks. Combining expertise on prominent modelling approaches, we develop a framework to systematically compare models and their predictions. Drawing on this, a mixed-method approach will link models to empirical evidence, utilizing our expertise on qualitative research, experiments, social network analysis and survey research. We test models empirically, both in terms of micro-level assumptions and macro-level predictions, proposing a new generation of social influence models that synthesizes insights from ToRealSim.

Models developed in ToRealSim will be applied to address the highly debated question whether increasing opinion diversity is related to a decline in social cohesion. Data obtained with a recent "cohesion radar" developed by members of our consortium can be used to relate observed changes in social cohesion to, first, measured changes in diversity, polarization, consensuality, and extremity in key issues identified in WP4. Second, the agent-based models that best match those data can be used to assess whether there is a potential for structural changes of the opinion landscape towards polarization, and how this could be expected to affect societal cohesion.

A central problem of the current state-of-the-art is that practitioners are confronted with a huge number of different models but no guidance in the selection of the best model for their specific purpose. Based on the theoretical insights from WP1 and WP2 and their respective empirical tests in WP3 and WP4, we will provide a list of (i) critical decisions that modelers of processes in a given setting need to make, (ii) an overview over important modeling options, and (iii) empirically informed guidance with regard to the characteristics of the setting that should inform the selection of modeling options. Finally, we will point practitioners to context-specific intervention methods that can help avoiding undesired outcomes. Examples can be found in our own work about effects of the so-called "timing of contacts", effects of network structure, and the demographic composition of groups on polarization dynamics

A further focus is dissemination to non-academic audiences. For instance, the French team tests opinion-dynamics models about conversion of farmers to organic farming and will disseminate insights to staff of "chambres d'agriculture", involved in an already funded project. The UK team will work with citizens.is, an online platform for public debate of policy issues that is now used in many participatory and consultative exercises around Europe. In particular it will discuss project results for features of platform design that help prevent polarization or opinion clustering in settings where we can know that this outcome would be clearly unintended and undesired by the participants. The Dutch team is involved in SCOOP (NWO gravity), a recently financed major effort to study sustainable cooperation in families, organizations and communities (https://www.scoop-program.org/). We discuss insights from ToRealSim about dynamics of attitudes about immigration with SCOOP-stakeholders (e.g. Scientific Council for Government Policy, WRR, or Netherlands Institute for Social Research, SCP). The German team is involved in the "Social Cohesion Radar" of the Bertelsmann Foundation, in which insights from ToRealSim about degree and trend of polarization will be discussed with policy makers.