Voters and the British Political System in the Context of Brexit: the British Election Study 2019-2026

The British electorate has become more volatile in recent decades. This volatile environment has allowed recent political shocks and events to bring about a period of rapid and dramatic political change. In 2015 we witnessed fragmentation of party support with the collapse of the Liberal Democrats and the rise of smaller and newer parties such as UKIP, the Greens, and the SNP. In 2017, following the Brexit vote, this was reversed, with a surge in support for the Conservatives and Labour, with many voters choosing on the basis of their attitudes towards Europe and immigration. Whatever form Brexit eventually takes, it will have huge electoral consequences and the next five years are likely to see further shifts in the electoral landscape. The British Election Study will be designed to provide a deep and theoretically informed understanding of those changes. We are proposing a study that maximizes the understanding of the immediate electoral and political consequences of Brexit - both for academic and non-academic beneficiaries.

Our proposed project will achieve this by collecting high quality survey data for the research community, a broad array of the most relevant and timely questions, and a clear dissemination and impact plan. We will also achieve this by carrying out a program of theoretically informed research linking long-term trends in electoral volatility and contemporary political events. The project will benefit from a high level of continuity with the 2014-2019 BES (and historical BES studies) in terms of methodological and theoretical approach and a substantial degree of innovation, keeping the BES at the forefront of national election studies globally.

The BES will consist of two core components: a post-election cross-sectional nationally representative sample survey of citizens; and an internet panel. The content of these surveys will be organised around the themes of accountability, representation and support for the political system. The surveys will allow users to understand and demonstrate how these key areas of democracy are affected by Brexit. The study will be designed to allow investigation of geographical and social variation in representation, accountability and system support. By maximising the extent of comparability with past studies it will also make it possible to compare voter behaviour and attitudes across successive election studies. Similarly the BES will help researchers to understand the role of national context by ensuring comparability between Britain and other countries. The inter-election panel will provide a platform for analysing the drivers of individual-level change and will include questions designed by and for the user community. Users will be able to investigate the impact of the election campaign using our daily sample of voters. We will also make it possible to link data from other sources including other surveys. We will work with the Social Science One Consortium to enable researchers to link Facebook data to BES respondents anonymously and securely which will allow users to combine BES survey responses with behavioural social media data.

We will set aside 15% of the Internet Panel as an Innovation Module (split into four parts). We will use this space for user-created modules that are relevant to both the users' research agendas and the wider user community. This survey space will also allow the BES team to trial new items and adapt items from other studies for comparability and relevance to ongoing debates in the literature.

Our custom designed BES website will provide easy access to data and stories arising from the BES. A program of consultation, events and media engagement will ensure that the study enhances public awareness and understanding of electoral politics, and assist academic and non-academic researchers in their own work.

The impact of the BES has risen significantly in recent years. Building on the authority of the BES as a reliable source of non-partisan information about British elections and voters amongst non-academic audiences, the next BES will continue and enhance public and political understanding of uncertainty, volatility, and in particular the political consequences of Brexit.

Journalists benefit from BES data and analysis, providing accurate news content, background briefings, and a dataset that is used widely in print and broadcast reporting. Our events will disseminate research findings and consult on novel and timely survey questions; our website will disseminate high-impact findings; and the BES Data Playground will make more data available for journalists to use. BES investigators will continue to produce research for BBC online, ITV News, and other broadcasters, as well as print media. BES data is used throughout the night for BBC election programming and is an integral part of ITV News election coverage, with live analysis and BES-based data dissemination commentary. This is achieved - especially with ITV - by long-term planning and very close collaboration. A BES documentary is being explored currently with another broadcaster. Furthermore, by partnering with Social Science One (via the Institute for Quantitative Social Science, Harvard University), BES data linking to Facebook data, and separately with twitter data, will provide useful analysis for global social media platforms, as well as benefiting social media journalists.

Political parties and campaigning organisations benefit from BES data and analysis, informing party campaigns, the understanding of election outcomes and major changes between elections. This will be achieved by regular one-to-one meetings, events, ongoing dissemination on the BES website, and via the media. This impact also extends to government departments, especially where concerned with civic engagement and participation. Our experience of giving testimony to House of Commons and Lords Committees is very likely to be repeated in the future.

The BES will partner with the Electoral Commission to ensure rigorous understanding of electoral participation, political campaign effects and electoral processes. This informs understanding, policy and also practice, as relevant. We will also invite partnerships with other independent organisations, as we have previously with the Hansard Society and the Committee for the Protection of Standards in Public Life, and through providing insight and analysis for publications and seminars organised by a variety of think tanks. This leads to public understanding of British elections and political attitudes.

BES data plays an essential role underpinning the British polling industry which benefits from BES data in two ways. First, it informs understanding of the relationships between key variables and political choice and turnout, and the reasons for recent polling misses. Second, the BES post-election surveys play an essential behind-the-scenes role in providing the weighting targets for the industry.

Finally, it is our view that - without the BES - the public would not be served by a non-partisan, transparent, freely available, high quality survey and analysis. Information is a key part of the democratic process. BES data and analysis provides a check on political claims (e.g. one political party is supported by one group or another), whether one party is likely to breakthrough in an upcoming election. It helps people better understand whether they can and should trust opinion polls, and explains how fellow citizens have contributed to election outcomes. In the forthcoming political period, this could not be more important. In an era of political volatility and contested truths, BES data will serve public understanding and accountability as a valuable part of the political process.