Modelling housing career trajectories in Great Britain
Lead Research Organisation:
University College London
Department Name: Geography
Abstract
1. Aims
This project aims to develop our understanding of how people's pathways through the housing market are changing in 21st Century Britain.
2. Background
The 2017 Housing White Paper noted that many Britons cannot access suitable housing and it committed the government to "fixing our broken housing market". A key problem is that a growing proportion of people are unable to 'progress' along a traditional housing career path by moving into homeownership, more desirable neighbourhoods and accumulating housing wealth as they age. This creates intra- and inter-generational inequalities in wealth holdings and quality of life.
Public debates about Generation Rent highlight how demographic change, economic pressure (e.g. low incomes, student debt and job insecurity) and constrained housing affordability have caused young adults' housing position to deteriorate in recent decades. Younger cohorts of adults are finding it harder than previous generations to enter homeownership and 'trade up' to more desirable dwellings and neighbourhoods. This means that social mobility in the housing system is declining as young people's housing attainments become increasingly dependent on whether they have access to family support.
At the same time, there is longstanding policy concern that housing wealth is becoming more unevenly distributed across Britain as homeowners in prosperous areas reap gains from house price inflation that are denied to renters and owners in less buoyant places. These disparities could have an adverse impact on population mobility and also destabilise the future funding basis for pensions, welfare and social care.
Data constraints mean that there are significant deficiencies in the evidence underpinning these debates. Many studies do not look at inequalities between individuals' housing career development as they rely on data from surveys conducted at one point in time. Furthermore, small samples and the limited wealth measures in most datasets impede knowledge of (i) geographical patterns in housing attainments as well as disparities in (ii) who accumulates housing wealth with age.
3. Research design
This study will overcome these issues by examining generational, socioeconomic and spatial disparities in housing careers through interrelated analyses of ESRC supported surveys and consumer Big Data pertaining to almost the entire adult population over a 20-year period. The project will answer the following question: how do patterns of housing career trajectories - defined in terms of (i) dwelling ownership status, (ii) level of neighbourhood (dis)advantage and (iii) housing wealth holdings - vary across birth cohorts, socioeconomic groups and space?
Data analysis will be divided into two strands. Strand 1 will use survey data to build detailed models of the housing career progression and wealth trajectories of different population groups since 1998. These results will be fed forward into Strand 2, which will harness Electoral and Consumer Register Big Data pre-prepared at UCL to describe, model and visualize patterns of housing career development across the entire adult population of Great Britain.
4. Benefits to society
This project will deliver several public benefits that align with ESRC's aim to support socially relevant research in the priority field of housing:
a. An improved understanding of the origins and nature of housing wealth inequalities. This will inform national and local policy and public debates about housing, property taxation, and how to finance welfare and social care.
b. New evidence about 'Generation Rent' and intergenerational/social divisions in housing opportunities. This will inform debates about social mobility and the policy measures needed to promote greater intergenerational fairness.
c. A technical assessment of the value and representational challenges of using consumer data for housing research. This will improve the uptake of this research resource.
This project aims to develop our understanding of how people's pathways through the housing market are changing in 21st Century Britain.
2. Background
The 2017 Housing White Paper noted that many Britons cannot access suitable housing and it committed the government to "fixing our broken housing market". A key problem is that a growing proportion of people are unable to 'progress' along a traditional housing career path by moving into homeownership, more desirable neighbourhoods and accumulating housing wealth as they age. This creates intra- and inter-generational inequalities in wealth holdings and quality of life.
Public debates about Generation Rent highlight how demographic change, economic pressure (e.g. low incomes, student debt and job insecurity) and constrained housing affordability have caused young adults' housing position to deteriorate in recent decades. Younger cohorts of adults are finding it harder than previous generations to enter homeownership and 'trade up' to more desirable dwellings and neighbourhoods. This means that social mobility in the housing system is declining as young people's housing attainments become increasingly dependent on whether they have access to family support.
At the same time, there is longstanding policy concern that housing wealth is becoming more unevenly distributed across Britain as homeowners in prosperous areas reap gains from house price inflation that are denied to renters and owners in less buoyant places. These disparities could have an adverse impact on population mobility and also destabilise the future funding basis for pensions, welfare and social care.
Data constraints mean that there are significant deficiencies in the evidence underpinning these debates. Many studies do not look at inequalities between individuals' housing career development as they rely on data from surveys conducted at one point in time. Furthermore, small samples and the limited wealth measures in most datasets impede knowledge of (i) geographical patterns in housing attainments as well as disparities in (ii) who accumulates housing wealth with age.
3. Research design
This study will overcome these issues by examining generational, socioeconomic and spatial disparities in housing careers through interrelated analyses of ESRC supported surveys and consumer Big Data pertaining to almost the entire adult population over a 20-year period. The project will answer the following question: how do patterns of housing career trajectories - defined in terms of (i) dwelling ownership status, (ii) level of neighbourhood (dis)advantage and (iii) housing wealth holdings - vary across birth cohorts, socioeconomic groups and space?
Data analysis will be divided into two strands. Strand 1 will use survey data to build detailed models of the housing career progression and wealth trajectories of different population groups since 1998. These results will be fed forward into Strand 2, which will harness Electoral and Consumer Register Big Data pre-prepared at UCL to describe, model and visualize patterns of housing career development across the entire adult population of Great Britain.
4. Benefits to society
This project will deliver several public benefits that align with ESRC's aim to support socially relevant research in the priority field of housing:
a. An improved understanding of the origins and nature of housing wealth inequalities. This will inform national and local policy and public debates about housing, property taxation, and how to finance welfare and social care.
b. New evidence about 'Generation Rent' and intergenerational/social divisions in housing opportunities. This will inform debates about social mobility and the policy measures needed to promote greater intergenerational fairness.
c. A technical assessment of the value and representational challenges of using consumer data for housing research. This will improve the uptake of this research resource.
Planned Impact
This project comes at an auspicious moment as housing issues and social mobility are currently central to public debate and the domestic public policy agenda. By following the Pathways to Impact, we will exploit this favourable context to deliver multiple benefits for several stakeholder groups:
1. National and local policymakers
Robust knowledge about how housing careers are themselves evolving over time for different population subgroups will (i) allow policymakers in the Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) - as well as politicians from opposition parties - to design, evaluate and critique policy interventions that are intended to influence people's homeownership outcomes (e.g. Help to Buy or the case for a reinvigorated Right to Buy). MHCLG have identified this type of analysis to be one of their core Areas of Research Interest during this government. Policymakers will also benefit from (ii) a deeper understanding of patterns of housing wealth accumulation over the life course as this has financial implications across government ministries (e.g. for designing how to fund the welfare system, pensions provision and social care in both the short- and long-term). Our analysis of spatial divergence in housing career trajectories will yield (iii) insights about geographically uneven taxation of property and so could be of interest to local government policymakers.
More generally, (iv) understanding housing wealth trajectories is essential for policymakers seeking to evaluate and tackle intergenerational inequality and social mobility. This issue is currently rising up the political agenda - e.g. through the work of the ongoing House of Lords Intergenerational Fairness and Provision Committee.
Methodologically, (v) our work coupling social survey and big data analysis to understand the housing market could produce best practice insights for policymakers seeking new ways to track housing dynamics between censuses.
2. Think tanks, charities and pressure groups
Housing is central to the research and 'influencing' activities of think tanks from across the political spectrum (for example Demos, IPPR, Policy Exchange and the Resolution Foundation), as well as charitable organisations including JRF and Shelter. However, resource, staffing and time constraints typically prevent these organisations from commissioning or conducting the complex modelling of secure access datasets that are planned in this project. Project results on housing career disparities will therefore be disseminated to feed into their (i) research agendas and (ii) yield insights to improve the targeting of lobbying activities.
Pressure groups such as Generation Rent and PricedOut would also benefit from up-to-date evidence about the housing difficulties confronting recent cohorts of younger adults. Project insights could therefore improve their lobbying activities and public engagement strategies.
3. Organisations involved in housing supply
Demand side planning for organizations involved in the private ownership (e.g. developers, mortgage lenders) and social sectors (e.g. housing associations and the National Housing Federation) would benefit from project insights on the structure of housing careers and patterns of residential 'filtering' across Britain. Models of property wealth holdings and accumulation trajectories could be valuable to financial businesses (e.g. firms represented by UK Finance), for example those seeking to design and market equity release products.
4. General public
There is currently an intense public interest in housing issues and housing debates regularly feature in the popular press. Dissemination of project findings will inform these debates and thus help the public hold policymakers to account, for example over a lack of social mobility in the housing system.
1. National and local policymakers
Robust knowledge about how housing careers are themselves evolving over time for different population subgroups will (i) allow policymakers in the Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) - as well as politicians from opposition parties - to design, evaluate and critique policy interventions that are intended to influence people's homeownership outcomes (e.g. Help to Buy or the case for a reinvigorated Right to Buy). MHCLG have identified this type of analysis to be one of their core Areas of Research Interest during this government. Policymakers will also benefit from (ii) a deeper understanding of patterns of housing wealth accumulation over the life course as this has financial implications across government ministries (e.g. for designing how to fund the welfare system, pensions provision and social care in both the short- and long-term). Our analysis of spatial divergence in housing career trajectories will yield (iii) insights about geographically uneven taxation of property and so could be of interest to local government policymakers.
More generally, (iv) understanding housing wealth trajectories is essential for policymakers seeking to evaluate and tackle intergenerational inequality and social mobility. This issue is currently rising up the political agenda - e.g. through the work of the ongoing House of Lords Intergenerational Fairness and Provision Committee.
Methodologically, (v) our work coupling social survey and big data analysis to understand the housing market could produce best practice insights for policymakers seeking new ways to track housing dynamics between censuses.
2. Think tanks, charities and pressure groups
Housing is central to the research and 'influencing' activities of think tanks from across the political spectrum (for example Demos, IPPR, Policy Exchange and the Resolution Foundation), as well as charitable organisations including JRF and Shelter. However, resource, staffing and time constraints typically prevent these organisations from commissioning or conducting the complex modelling of secure access datasets that are planned in this project. Project results on housing career disparities will therefore be disseminated to feed into their (i) research agendas and (ii) yield insights to improve the targeting of lobbying activities.
Pressure groups such as Generation Rent and PricedOut would also benefit from up-to-date evidence about the housing difficulties confronting recent cohorts of younger adults. Project insights could therefore improve their lobbying activities and public engagement strategies.
3. Organisations involved in housing supply
Demand side planning for organizations involved in the private ownership (e.g. developers, mortgage lenders) and social sectors (e.g. housing associations and the National Housing Federation) would benefit from project insights on the structure of housing careers and patterns of residential 'filtering' across Britain. Models of property wealth holdings and accumulation trajectories could be valuable to financial businesses (e.g. firms represented by UK Finance), for example those seeking to design and market equity release products.
4. General public
There is currently an intense public interest in housing issues and housing debates regularly feature in the popular press. Dissemination of project findings will inform these debates and thus help the public hold policymakers to account, for example over a lack of social mobility in the housing system.
Organisations
Publications
Coulter R
(2022)
Comparing regional patterns of homeownership entry across four British birth cohorts
in Housing Studies
| Description | 1. New evidence on housing careers Our research demonstrated that homeownership entry has slowed among cohorts of young people entering the UK housing system over the last 20 years. However, there are also nuances to this general pattern as (i) there has been an uptick in rates of entry for young people born after 1988 (which we attribute to Help to Buy, relaxed lending and low interest rates in recent years) and (ii) the decline began earliest in London and then rippled out to other areas. Moreover, (iii) in some more peripheral regions the 2008 crisis significantly disrupted the 1981-87 cohort's trajectory of entry to owner-occupation. Overall, we can conclude from this work that historical time and place play very strong roles in shaping housing careers. This is not just due to changes in other life course trajectories as these patterns persist after controlling for the timing of family events as well as socioeconomic status. Work examining the neighbourhood careers of cohorts and their wealth trajectories is ongoing and further updates will be provided in further submission periods. Broadly speaking, we thus far have found a strong socio-economic gradient in neighbourhood attainments, but less evidence these vary over time or space. 2. Technical innovations Extensive research work went into examining whether linked consumer data can provide new insights about housing processes. We found these resources to have much potential and data from Energy Performance Certificates in England was linked in to explore patterns of upsizing and downsizing across the country. This work is still ongoing but in brief shows that there is a clear geography to housing space transitions with those leaving cities gaining space while those entering urban centres move to smaller dwellings. A publication on this is planned as much of the analysis has now been completed. We also identified a number of significant challenges to leveraging these resources. These include (i) representation and coverage, (ii) difficulties identifying movers and (iii) challenges to measuring tenure in consumer and administrative data. We discuss these issues and how they can be dealt with in our Briefing Notes. This is an area for further research effort. |
| Exploitation Route | Our results on cohort disparities in housing career trajectories should lead further research to examine the impacts that these shifts are having on the wider course of people's lives (e.g. their fertility, jobs, health etc). This is particularly important in expensive regions like London where our research shows that homeownership entry is especially stratified and delayed. On a technical level, researchers could devote further energy to enriching the Linked Consumer Registers and further validating their utility for housing research. CDRC-UCL are currently working on this. Outside of the academy, our evidence that homeownership transitions are being delayed in a secular fashion should guide policymakers and practitioners to explore what sorts of housing policy and tax interventions could best boost the housing opportunities of recent cohorts. |
| Sectors | Communities and Social Services/Policy |
| Description | This award aimed to leverage (i) survey and (ii) novel consumer 'big data' resources to build a better understanding of inequalities in how people move through the UK housing system (in particular into owner-occupation) over the life course. Impact activities were designed to engage with two principal communities: (1) public policy professionals and third sector researchers with interests in housing and social policy, as well as (2) members of the broader research community (both within and beyond academia) whose roles focus on studying housing, neighbourhoods and population mobility. Although the COVID-19 pandemic seriously disrupted the project and required changes to both research activities and impact-related engagements, two dimensions of impact are - at the time of writing - beginning to emerge. It is expected that these will continue to unfold over the coming years as the delayed project outputs are gradually completed, reviewed and released. 1. Public policy/third sector Project insights were shared during the award's timeframe with a range of colleagues working in organisations with a housing agenda including the GLA and think tanks. Reports indicated that project findings confirmed stakeholder assumptions concerning birth cohort and geographical trends in access to owner-occupation and there was some productive public discussion of this on social media in early 2023. A further key impact for this constituency has been raising awareness and understanding of what research insights can be gained from analysis of ESRC funded data resources held at the Consumer Data Research Centre. This impact was achieved through a successful online stakeholder event held in June 2021 and attended by around 30-40 delegates. A key challenge to achieving the planned impacts in this area has been the volatility of government agendas (partly due to the pandemic) and within the UK government housing ministry over the past few years. This volatility meant that the research insights planned in the grant formulation stage were not necessarily still of such interest to the policy community by the time the analysis had been executed. This was particularly true through 2020-21 when the focus was very much on pandemic-related housing disruptions. 2. Research communities within and beyond academia The project has impacted positively on the development of a UK research infrastructure for housing analysis. On the one hand, our in-depth profiling of the potential and problems of novel big data resources (see project briefing notes) has generated useful technical resources for other researchers interested in harnessing these data to study housing and population mobility. This work is continuing at CDRC and has been showcased publicly through an outward facing Data Story on their website. On the other hand, resources developed while working on the survey analysis strand of grant research are helping to improve researcher training through the ongoing development of an Understanding Society training module which will make use of examples and code written for this project. As explained above, these impacts are all in their early stages and it is expected that greater specificity and detail (as well as further outputs) will be provided in subsequent reporting rounds. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2021 |
| Sector | Communities and Social Services/Policy,Education |
| Impact Types | Societal |
| Description | Shaping Understanding Society survey methods training |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
| Description | UCL CoA tier three award |
| Amount | £40,000 (GBP) |
| Organisation | University College London |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 01/2021 |
| End | 09/2021 |
| Description | Consumer Data Insights for Housing Policy workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
| Results and Impact | On June 24th 2021 the team held a virtual workshop on Consumer Data Insights for Housing Policy. The workshop consisted of short policy-focused talks by project researchers and members of CDRC-UCL: Justin van Dijk spoke on consumer data infrastructure, Meixu Chen on estimating social mobility from linked consumer data, Bin Chi on estimating changes in housing space for residential movers and Joanna Kuleszo on using big data to estimate residential moves in the private rented sector. Maurizio Gibin and Rory Coulter finished by showcasing the project's housing data dashboard (https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/cdrc/viz/CDRCHousingDashboard/CDRCHousingDashboard). Participants agreed the workshop was useful and reported interest in further project-related outputs. GLA participants subsequently engaged further with the research team to ascertain the value of the data resources for tracking housing transitions and residential moves in Greater London |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.geog.ucl.ac.uk/news-events/news/consumer-data-insights-for-housing-policy |
| Description | Data dashboard discussions |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | On May 4th 2021 the project team convened an invitation only online meeting with participants from ONS, the Trust for London, academic institutions (including Cardiff and Glasgow) as well as housing-related research businesses. At the meeting we (i) showcased our plans for an online housing data dashboard and (ii) sought feedback over our plans while also (iii) stimulating interest in our research. This has helped foster new collaborations and networks with non-academic stakeholders and also informed our dissemination strategy. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Housing story on CDRC website |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | At the completion of the project Rory Coulter (in collaboration with team members and CDRC-UCL) wrote a summative 'data story' for the CDRC webpage. This provides an accessible summary of datasets, their potential and some key research findings from this award and other CDRC activities. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021,2022 |
| URL | https://data.cdrc.ac.uk/stories/consumer-data-insights-housing-policy |
| Description | SDAI Advisory Board engagements |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
| Results and Impact | A light-touch Advisory Board was convened to steer the ESRC SDAI project 'Modelling housing career trajectories in Great Britain'. The AB involved participants from academia (KCL), the ESRC collaborative Centre for Housing Evidence, the Greater London Authority policy unit as well as two third sector organisations (Trust for London and the Resolution Foundation). The project's initial AB meeting had to be postponed due to the onset of COVID-19 lockdowns in March 2020. Ad hoc one-to-one virtual meetings were instead convened with stakeholders during 2020 and again in 2021. These were intended to feed into project design decisions and provide networks to assist with the dissemination of results. The initial meetings in 2020 led to (i) changes in research direction and (ii) plans for collaboration on the production of research outputs to contribute to users' agendas. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020,2021 |