cemmap Legacy Centre

This project aims to work with business and public sector users to develop a focused sequence of conferences, masterclasses, and training courses to bring frontier research methods to the fingertips of non-academic economists. To further this aim, the project will found a new blog, CeMMAP "Econometric Insights", to produce accessible versions of frontier research tools.

The project will start with a pair of workshops that bring together economists and researchers from institutions including the Bank of England, the FCA, the CMA, OFCOM, KPMG, and others. At these workshops, private and public sector economists will present practical experience using 'big data' methods and machine learning techniques. Academics will present recent advances in core research. The workshops will be used to share ideas, spread knowledge, and to discuss topics and formats for a sequence of training courses and masterclasses to further share knowledge across the network of researchers.

Topics for the series of conferences and training courses will likely stick close to the core research of CeMMAP but will respond to core needs of users. CeMMAP's core research develops and applies tools to extract information about individual behaviour, and influences on it, from data on individuals' actions and outcomes in their normal environment. Typically, this environment is not a controlled laboratory-like situation. The 'individuals' the project studies can be, for example, people, households or enterprises.

This core research is organised under five headings.
1) Big data and machine learning. We study the performance of big data and machine learning methods, develop models and research applications in which economic and social science poses deep questions and guides model construction. Applications study the impact of policies to change behaviour using taxes on e.g. sugar and fat, and the impact of planning laws on housing supply and prices.
2) Dynamics and Complexity. We are developing models and tools to understand influences on complex life planning choices made by people in the face of uncertainty and incomplete information. Applications are studying e.g. housing location and tenure choice.
3) Robust models. We are studying the utility and performance of incomplete models of complex economic and social process in which only theory-grounded restrictions on behaviour are employed. Applications consider e.g. models of auction bidding behaviour, determination of well-being and firm market entry and product choice.
4) Networks and interactions. We study properties of tools to estimate aspects of network structure and develop methods for estimating the impact of network structure on outcomes. Applications consider e.g. employer-employee matching processes and trade flows between countries.
5) Survey design and measurement. We research the optimal choice of scope, scale and measurement quality in investigations such as field experiments constructed to answer specific social science questions.

This Project will benefit:
(A) Social science researchers, who use microdata to understand human behaviour and the influences on it.
(B) Statisticians, both practitioners and theorists, who develop statistical procedures and research their properties.
(C) Survey designers who gather data on individuals' circumstances, decisions and outcomes, and designers and analysts of policy evaluations and of social and economic lab and field experiments.
(D) Policy and decision makers in the public and private sectors who use microdata evidence to inform policy choices and analysts who process data to inform decisions.
(E) The general public.

(A) and (B) CeMMAP's research improves the tools used to extract information from microdata directly benefitting these groups. The Project's dissemination and training at basic and advanced levels will spread knowledge of new tools, raising the quality of empirical social science research.
(C) Designers of surveys, evaluations and experiments will benefit from the Project's activities that share new tools for understanding identification, big data and survey design. The conferences, training and blog will spread knowledge on what to measure, how to measure it, and other aspects of design, as well as information about new tools to analyse big data. The Project will help private sector survey designers use our tools for more efficient data collection, enabling better informed choices on prices, investment and product portfolios.
(D) Policy and decision makers will benefit from the Project's and activities by gaining better knowledge of how to conduct higher-quality analysis of microdata. The conferences, training and blog will enable these users to share their experiences and also to gain a more detailed understanding of new advances in the microdata revolution.
(E) The general public is often presented with statistics as if they give a direct insight into causal relationships. The Project's Econometric Insights, though primarily targeted at professional users will provide insights to the general public as well. Some insights will also be published as briefing notes for public consumption.
To ensure impacts are achieved, the activities are very tightly tied to collaboration with users. Users will be integrated in all aspects of the conferences, training courses, and masterclasses.
Benefits from the Project's work will range from immediate (e.g. improved skills from training) to long-term (e.g. accumulation of knowledge about behaviour). Intermediate benefits will also arise as novel methods and approaches deliver higher-quality evidence and better policy choices and networks of users with common interests grow.