Forecasting with fishers: co-producing knowledge for early warning of extreme weather events on the coast of South India

Lead Research Organisation: University of Sussex
Department Name: Sch of Global Studies

Abstract

The proposed multi-disciplinary project aims to making South Indian artisanal fishers' livelihoods more secure and sustainable by improving safety at sea. Bringing together these small-scale fishers with weather forecasters and government agencies, it will devise, test and promote effective means for the co-production and communication of accurate weather forecasts, thus increasing resilience of the fishers amidst a trend of extreme and hazardous weather conditions in a changing climate. Moreover, the project will devise an "action template" of practical methods and a road-map for co-producing and communicating accessible and effective weather forecasts to artisanal fishers elsewhere in India and beyond. It will also contribute to academic debates concerning: the understanding and response to environmental risks; the role of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) in disseminating information and warnings to diverse and vulnerable populations; and the knowledge, practices and livelihoods of fishing communities in Asia.

The main objective of the proposed project is to close the gap between what marine weather forecasters produce and disseminate, and what artisanal fishers recognize as relevant and actionable inputs for decision-making. Access to trusted and actionable forecasts helps fishers make informed decisions to go to sea or not under hazardous weather conditions, thus reducing risk of potentially life-threatening accidents at sea, diminishing the loss of gear and boats, and, more generally, building resilience against hazardous weather conditions. Such weather-resilient pathways will contribute to promoting more secure and sustainable livelihoods for artisanal fishers in India and elsewhere in the Global South. This project will be part of a larger effort called the Sussex Sustainability Research Programme (SSRP) to provide science relevant for implementing the SDGs in seventeen low and medium income countries.

Drawing on the expertise of a multi-disciplinary research team--comprising anthropologists, geographers, atmospheric and marine scientists, and ICT and media experts - the proposed project combines complementary methodological approaches. It utilizes ethnographic methods to study the wider social, economic and cultural practices underpinning artisanal fishing, as well as to gauge fishers' forecast usage and uptake. It uses satellite and in-situ weather observations to gain insights into changing hazard patterns and forecast challenges, as well as to acquire the necessary data to co-produce area-specific weather forecasts with fishers, forecasters and other stakeholders. It will employ participatory approaches and technologies developed in the fields of human-computer interaction and ICT4D to co-produce and test effective, culturally appropriate communication platforms to disseminate weather forecast and provide feedback on the same. To account for variations in fishing techniques and technologies, and in the socio-economic organization of fishing, as well as different forms of social organization and cultural orientations the field-research will take place in three different fishing communities. These will be located, respectively, in Kanyakumari, Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam districts in South India, a stretch of coast with one of the densest concentrations of artisanal fishers in Asia, using diverse craft, gear and fishing methods in a geographically diverse setting.

Planned Impact

This project aims at making artisanal fishers' livelihoods in LMICs more secure and sustainable by providing accurate, accessible and actionable marine weather forecasts, and promoting their uptake. It is based on intensive user engagement, paired with capacity-building and pathways co-created with local communities to align forces in making fishers' livelihoods more secure and sustainable. The main impact objective is to deliver practical methods and a road-map for replicating co-production of locally relevant marine weather forecasts in India and beyond via production of an "action template", consisting of a toolkit adaptable to different geographical, technical and cultural contexts. The project builds on a 12 months pilot research supported by the Sussex Sustainability Research Programme which allowed to determine the stakeholders' and users' urgent need for reliable and actionable marine weather forecasts on the south-west coast of India, and brought together users and stakeholders-artisanal fishers, fishers organisations, weather forecasters, government agencies-to shape the intellectual and practical direction of the proposed project.

The project's impact strategy-for which £58,000 have been allocated in the budget-entails, firstly, securing the long term co-production of weather bulletins tailored to the social, cultural and economic needs of fishers, but also responsive to the priorities of weather forecasters and government agencies. Secondly, it requires the establishment of effective and easily accessible offshore/onshore communication tools in collaboration with fishers, government agencies and forecasters. Thirdly, it engages with civil society organizations, as well as with fishers' families to foster the establishment of local "boundary organizations" devoted to promoting decision-making behaviours informed by co-produced weather forecast, and thus conducive to safe fishing. Taken together, this impact strategy will provide the means to elaborate and produce an "action template" for co-producing and communicating accessible and effective weather forecasting to artisanal fishers in low and medium income countries.

The first beneficiaries of the proposed project are artisanal fishers who will gain access to accurate and actionable forecasts, thus reducing risk of accidents at sea. By building resilience against hazardous weather conditions, this will contribute to promoting more secure and sustainable livelihoods. The second beneficiaries are local fishers organizations such as the South Indian Federation of Fishermen's Societies (SIFFS) and the International Collective in Support of Fishworkers (ICSF) who will gain access to new means to advancing their long-term goal of promoting the safety and welfare of Indian artisanal fishers. Thirdly, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), and the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (SDMA) will benefit by drawing on this project's insights and practices to reach more effectively coastal communities with weather forecasts and warnings based user feedback and co-production. The devasting effects of the 2017 Cyclone Ockhi and of the 2018 monsoon floods on south-west India have made this an urgent priority for these agencies, and highlighted substantial shortcomings. To enhance resilience of fishers (and farmers) in other low and medium income countries, we will transfer the practical and intellectual results of the project worldwide via engagement with international organizations which are concerned with the safety and welfare of artisanal fishers with whom project members have established connections.
 
Title Fishy Tales 
Description This is a short [7 minutes] film which seeks to explain to inland/non-fishing communities in Kerala how fresh fish comes daily to their tables, and the daily struggles of fishers for catching fish and then selling it. The film was devised and produced by fishers in one of our research villages, with the support of members of the research team. The latter left it to members of fishing community [women in particular] to decide the topic and "plot" of the story they wanted to narrate to wider society. Fishers decided that they needed to create awareness about the predicaments and dangers associated to artisanal fishing. The film was screened to coastal and inland communities in south Kerala. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2022 
Impact In the original research proposal, as a component of impact activities we envisaged the co-production of a short play--written and performed by women from fishing communities--focused on the risks of artisanal fishing and the livelihood of fishing households. Covid-19 restrictions throughout the research period made it impossible to conduct face-to-face training and other activities directed to support the production and performance of such a play. The research team decided instead to focus on the making of a short film, whose topic/story-line was entirely decided by members of fishing communities. The research team supported firstly basic training in film-making for those who had showed an interest in the project, and then provided technical and practical support for the making of the film [including original music!]. The making of this film involved some 15 members of fishing communities. 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IeQgxH7TeJs
 
Description The project was formally suspended for 6 months due to covid-19 lockdown in the research area, and resumed on 1st October 2020. It was granted a no-cost extension until 30 April 2022, and then again another no-cost extension until 31 October 2022. Although the research is now completed, data analysis and impact activities are continuing.
The research project set to explore effective strategies to produce and communicate localized and reliable weather information which South Indian traditional/artisanal fishers require to fish safely even under uncertain, variable or prohibitive weather conditions. Traditional fishers' lives There are more than 180,000 active traditional fishers in Kerala, of whom 55,118 live in the Thiruvananthapuram district. Coastal households are highly dependent on fishing and daily sale of fish, and the bulk of fishing income goes towards covering daily household expenses, acquiring or servicing fishing gear, repaying debts, providing for human development expenditures like education and health, and sustaining wider family and community. Without regular and successful fishing, income becomes uncertain or reduced, leading to increased indebtedness which then amplifies the precariousness of traditional fishers' livelihood. Available statistics, supported by a house-to-house survey we conducted during the research, suggest that 50% of fishing household remain below poverty line. Our research has established that as the result of economic pressures and ecological factors, traditional fishers are drawn to fishing further away from the shore even under inclement weather conditions or in disregard of advisories. The monsoon season is the time when the largest fish catches are made and fishing household can make savings to see them through the whole year. However, weather and sea conditions during the monsoon season can be extremely hazardous, and as a result many accidents occur: fishers lose boats, fishing gear, income, and even their lives throughout the season. At the same time, climate change has made weather patterns on the south-west coast of India more unstable and unpredictable the whole year and beyond the monsoon season (see, for instance, increased occurrence of cyclonic events on the south-west coast of India), making fishers' lives and livelihoods more unpredictable and precarious during non-monsoon season. Combined with fluctuations of fish stocks and Covid-19 bans on fishing (Johnson et al 2022), the growing uncertainty of weather have reduced the number of fishing days available to traditional fishers, thus contributing to a sharp decline in the overall yearly tonnage of fish landed. The necessity to secure an income and the unpredictability of fishing often forces traditional fishers to prioritise income over safety. While traditional fishing continues to play a crucial role in the economy and daily diet of the state, fishing has become one of the most dangerous occupations in Kerala.

Listening To Traditional Fishers' Voices Over 12 months, the research team has collected robust empirical evidence on fishing practices in three different fishing villages along the Thiruvananthapuram coast, as well as detailed data on weather patterns at sea. On the basis of the analysis of more than 300 interviews with fishers, focus group discussions and household surveys, the research team has established that fishers' decisions concerning whether to fish or not under hazardous weather/sea conditions are based on a combination of different (traditional and scientific) knowledges, as well as on the availability of fish in the sea, and on economic needs of the households concerned. However, existing weather forecasts provided and delivered by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) cover an area of the ocean too wide to be useful to traditional fishers for the safe planning of their fishing activities which normally take place within an average of 35kms from the coast. Moreover, existing weather forecasts are often imprecise, regularly under/over-forecasting unusual weather events (e.g., wind >45 kmph) (see Martin et al 2022). These factors combine with all too frequent advisories against fishing to undermine fishers' trust on existing weather forecasts. Regardless of the shortcomings in existing forecasts and generalised lack of trust on their precision and usefulness, the research team established that traditional fishers are responsive to scientific advice as long as science addresses their needs. Indeed, they demand more science-based interventions which respond to their needs and increase their safety at sea. There is clear evidence in all three research locations that traditional fishers ask for localized, reliable, daily and timely weather forecasts disseminated in a language and through means familiar to them, and they want to be involved in both production and dissemination of forecasts. Such localized, reliable and timely weather forecasts can be used by traditional fishers not simply to decide as to whether to go to sea or not, but also to manage potential risks, and to prepare for fishing under hazardous conditions. Indeed, traditional fishers demand daily weather information before venturing into sea. Responding to Traditional Fishers' needs to increase the safety of traditional fishers and to make their livelihood more resilient in the face of increasingly hazardous and unpredictable weather resulting to the effects of climate change, the research team has devised and tested new tools to produce accurate and timely localized coastal weather forecasts. Scientists at CUSAT Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research (ACARR) and at Sussex University (UK) have devised a 3-tiers approach to provide traditional fishers with tailor-made weather forecasts. Based on available data from IMD, INCOIS, NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction, USA) and NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA), the research team produced 7 days weather outlooks for the entire Arabian sea; 3 days forecasts for the Arabian Sea off Kerala coast; daily high-resolution localized weather forecasts for relevant fishing areas along the Thiruvananthapuram coast based on WRF weather modelling tools. These combined forecasts help the fishers plan the fishing expedition for a single or multiple days. Throughout the 2021 monsoon season, the research team has validated the accuracy of localized WRF-based high resolution forecasts against scientific data of actual weather events, as well as with reference to traditional fishers' actual observations and experiences. The localized WRF-based high resolution coastal weather forecasts were found to be detailed and useful for artisanal fishers, and with a high degree of accuracy. Indeed, the our results indicate that the WRF-based model can produce accurate forecasts for wind direction and wind category, with a particular focus on moderate wind events, a bias during June and July and change in polarity in August and September. The model was validated using ERA5 reanalysis data, and various skill scores were calculated to assess its performance. The analysis suggests that the model is robust and locally relevant for small-grid forecasts. It can predict moderate wind with high accuracy, but its performance is not as strong for light and strong wind events (see Abhilash et al 2023).

Taken together, this 3-tiers approach to weather forecasting allows traditional fishers to plan ahead, and maximise their fishing in a safe and sustainable environment. At the same time, the research team devised and tested effective and easily accessible communication tools to make localized forecasts accessible to local fishing communities. In collaboration with ITC experts at IIT Delhi and Sussex University, the team developed a tailor-made mobile-phone App and a website (https://www.kattumkadalum.org) through which detailed localized weather graphics and weather Information were made available in Malayalam language to traditional fishers. Moreover, the research team tested the broadcast of daily weather information in Malayalam through one online radio station run by local community members (Radio Monsoon; https://monsoonradio.wordpress.com). The usefulness and practicality of these communication tools were established through regular discussions with users. Moreover, the research team trained aspirants from the coastal community in the interpretation of weather information and graphics, as well as on communication skills and techniques. Extensive feedback from traditional fishers allowed the research team to modify and improve the working and scope of the communication tools. Promoting safety, resilience and sustainable livelihoods with traditional fishers during the whole 2021 monsoon season, the research team collected regular and detailed feedback from fishers about the accuracy and usefulness of localized weather models and forecasts, and improved the latter on the basis of their comments. The team also tested different means to communicate localized weather forecasts and to make them accessible and useful to the largest number of users. Fishers' continuous feedback allowed us to refine communication tools, leading, for example, to the introduction of easy to understand weather graphics on mobile App and website, and public electronic displays of forecast and graphics. Traditional fishers' response to a timely, accurate and localized daily coastal weather forecast has been extremely positive. The monitoring of the use of communication tools confirmed a substantial uptake of weather information produced by the research team, and fishers continuously provide feedback and suggestions on how to improve the production and communication of weather information (see Howland and Roopesh 2023). Most importantly, the research demonstrates that traditional fishers require continuous access to robust weather science and technological support for their work. They demand to be involved in the production, communication and management of localized weather forecasts, as well as on the promotion of safe and sustainable fishing. Indeed, this research demonstrates that fishers' trust in weather forecasts and compliance to weather information and advisories directly depends on fishers' involvement in the co-production of effective localized forecasts and in the communication of the same. This has become even more urgent in the context of transformations of weather patterns due to climate change which limits the usefulness of fishers' traditional knowledge. Our research found that tropical cyclones are on the rise in the Arabian Sea since 1979, especially during October-November. Intensity and duration of cyclones has been increasing especially in eastern Arabian Sea adjoining the Indian west coast driving more intense cyclones in the latter area (Abhilash et al. 2023). Considering the safety of artisan fishing habitats and livelihoods along this highly populated zone, this trend requires urgent action in terms of risk prevention and appropriate forecasting.
Exploitation Route Our research findings have the principal objective of supporting the establishment of dedicated localised weather services for artisanal fishers in south India and beyond (for details see Narrative Impact section). On the scientific side, our research provides, firstly, data and analyses which contribute to the further development of impact-based weather forecasts (for instance, customised for fishers using artisanal craft of different types, going different distances from the shore, and so on). Secondly, our detailed data on the ways marginalised communities make use of various communication technologies (from digital platforms to FM and online radios) contributes to the understanding and devising of effective disaster prevention strategies. Thirdly, taken together our research contributes to understanding ways through which weather-dependant livelihoods can be made safer, resilient and sustainable. Finally, the detailed ethnographic data we collected and are analysing provide unique insights on the transformations of artisanal fishing and of coastal communities.
Sectors Agriculture, Food and Drink,Communities and Social Services/Policy,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Environment
 
Description The main impact of our research projects consists in making artisanal fishing safer and sustainable by providing effective and trusted localised weather forecasts. In the three fishing villages were we conducted our research, and tested the production and communication of localised forecast, fishers have been able to fish for more days and more safely, thus improving households' income; accidents and death at sea have also diminished dramatically. Our localised forecasts turned up to be more accurate and reliable of those issued by IMD, and artisanal fishers are taking successful risk-reduction action based on our forecasts At the same time, they have been able to fish in shorter forays and closer to the coast, thus reducing fuel consumption and associated costs. To date, more than 200 fishing boats access our forecasts either through our free phone call service or website. Because of the success of our localised weather forecasts and artisanal fishers' growing reliance on the latter, we continued providing daily forecasts until the third week of February 2023 with the support of funds from University of Sussex. However, in order to respond to needs of local fishing communities, for the since January 2022 we have focused on of supporting the establishment of dedicated localised weather services for Kerala artisanal fishers. In order to do so we have partially revised our original impact strategy to the following effect: • In order to provide artisanal fishers with the knowledge and skills necessary for the co-production and dissemination of localised forecasts, from the second part of 2021, and throughout 2022 we have run a number of training courses and events for artisanal fishers. We trained 11 youths from coastal communities on basic radio production & weather news broadcasting; these youths were then involved in delivering daily weather bulletins via Radio Monsoon and other media platforms. In all of the three research villages we conducted at least two training programmes for fishers to learn how to access and interpret localised marine weather forecasts. We also run Ocean Literacy sessions on ocean weather, climate change and the fishing economy, and we supported local fishers to produce a short film entitled Fishy Tales about their daily work (available on https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IeQgxH7TeJs; the film was presented and discussed at the UN Ocean Conference, Lisbon July 2022). Most importantly, we supported the establishment of the Association of Artisanal Fishers (AAF) in one of our research villages. Now counting more than 120 active fishers as members, the AAF provides a platform for continuing the engagement between artisanal fishers and local weather scientists, as well as for continuing to deliver daily weather information through various communication platforms. We also supported and coached youths from the three fishing villages in which we conducted our research to provide to apply for postgraduate studies in universities outside India. This was a successful initiative in that three young women received admission and scholarships to MA degree courses in UK, at the University of East Anglia, University of Sussex and University of Glasgow respectively. These three students are concluding their studies in 2023 and have applied for doctoral studies. • Since 2022 we have engaged with the Indian Meteorological Department in order to receive scientific approval for the validity of our WRF-based forecasts. IMD approval is a pre-condition for establishing a localised weather information service for artisanal fishers. In order to secure IMD approval, we produced and submitted (in November 2022) a detailed validation report for the IMD. Based on our validation report, the IMD scientists has established the scientific validity, accuracy and robustness of our forecasting, and it has decided to employ our WRF-based forecasting tool and incorporate our localised forecasts to improve its daily bulletins and advisories. That is, the daily localised forecasts (and related graphics) we produce, will be uploaded onto the IMD website, and utilised to enhance and refine coastal forecasts for the South Kerala region.We are awaiting the signing of a formal agreement/MoU with IMD. At the same time, our CUSAT research partners are collaborating with Sussex scientists to extend the range of our weather forecasting tool to add info on rain, waves and visibility (this work is ongoing). • Since January 2022, we have been negotiating with the Fisheries Department of the Government of Kerala for the development and delivery of an effective Coastal Weather Information Service for Kerala artisanal fishers based on the expertise and scientific knowledge developed during our research project. These negotiations have proceeded but at a very slow pace, due to the limited availability of relevant government officials, shortfalls in Government budget and shifting political priorities within the Kerala state. However, in spring 2022 we presented to the Fisheries Dept a detailed report on our research which supports the need for the establishment of a weather forecasting service. Fisheries Department asked us to prepare a detailed costed plan for such a forecasting service, which was presented to the Minister for Fisheries in November 2022. So far we had extremely positive responses from the Government of Kerala, however we are still awaiting for a final and formal decision on this matter. • In order to support negotiations with the Government of Kerala, and to devise a fall-back plan focused on providing fishing communities with the means to continue to receive and communicate our localised forecasts, we are now working to establishing, running and evaluating a full-fledged pilot Localised Weather Information Service in one of our original research villages. This pilot service will run for six months with the participation of the Association of Artisanal Fishers (AAF) and village administration, and in collaboration with the Indian Meteorological Department. This "proof of concept" exercise has four related objectives. Firstly, it will test and assess the daily operations of a weather information service based on localised forecasts and communicated effectively to artisanal fishers through different platforms. Secondly, it will sustain ongoing negotiations with the Fisheries Department (Government of Kerala) for setting up a sustainable state-wide localised weather information service for coastal communities. Thirdly, it will provide the basis for producing a tool-kit and road map for establishing localised weather information services in different socio-cultural and geographical contexts associated to artisanal fishing. Finally, it will allow for exploring the means to offer our scientific knowledge and practical expertise to appropriate stakeholders in India and beyond on a cost-recovery basis via a dedicated Social Enterprise (SE). We believe that this uniquely innovative and relatively inexpensive service can be of use in other artisanal fishing contexts in India and beyond, making artisanal fishing safer and sustainable. We are currently applying for funding to support the establishment of the pilot service. Challenges Ahead: as well as looking for appropriate funding to carry on further impact activities outlines above [namely, proof of concept for a dedicated and localised weather information service], the research team is facing some difficulties in negotiating with various government agencies. These issues have emerged since March 2022, when the PI Prof F Osella was denied entry to India, learning that he had been blacklisted from the country. No reasons have been provided to justify such an action from the Government of India, and Prof Osella has initiated an appeal at the High Court in Delhi. A final decision on this matter will be taken by the HC in May 2023. As the result of the blacklisting and subsequent court action, various government agencies with which the research team had been working and collaborating with closely have become slow in responding or participating to negotiations.
First Year Of Impact 2022
Sector Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Other
Impact Types Cultural,Societal,Economic,Policy & public services
 
Description Fast Track Engagement Award - Forecasting with Fishers: Turning research into a means for safe and sustainable livelihood of artisanal fishers in south India [part 2]
Amount £10,000 (GBP)
Funding ID G2688-66 
Organisation University of Sussex 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 07/2022 
End 09/2022
 
Description Re-engaging in sustainability research with the Global South
Amount £15,800 (GBP)
Funding ID QD008-24 
Organisation University of Sussex 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2022 
End 07/2022