The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on nutrition
Lead Research Organisation:
Institute for Fiscal Studies
Department Name: IFS Research Team
Abstract
A major challenge facing policymaking during the COVID-19 crisis is ensuring all households have access to a nutritious diet. The Department of Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA) have provided supermarkets with a list of 1.5 million vulnerable people in England; this is being used to determine eligibility for grocery deliveries. However, there are press stories that families are struggling to put adequate food on the table. And in the devolved nations there are delays in supermarkets obtaining information on who the vulnerable are.
Many households are under significant financial pressure, some low-income families have lost access to free school meals, and interrupted supply chains and hoarding by some consumers are leading to significant upward pressure on food prices.
We will provide evidence on whether vulnerable people - e.g. the elderly, those on low incomes, and those with young children - are having difficulties accessing essentials and maintaining a healthy diet. We will use real-time longitudinal data on a large representative sample (over 30,000 households) to provide a systematic analysis of how different people's food spending is changing over the crisis relative to pre-crisis spending patterns. We will show how prices have changed and how the crisis is impacting the number of calories different people buy, how they obtain these calories (e.g. food out, takeaways or home cooked), the balance across different types of foods, and the overall quality of people's diets.
Our analysis will provide timely, invaluable information to policymakers tasked with ensuring a food supply chain that functions for all.
Many households are under significant financial pressure, some low-income families have lost access to free school meals, and interrupted supply chains and hoarding by some consumers are leading to significant upward pressure on food prices.
We will provide evidence on whether vulnerable people - e.g. the elderly, those on low incomes, and those with young children - are having difficulties accessing essentials and maintaining a healthy diet. We will use real-time longitudinal data on a large representative sample (over 30,000 households) to provide a systematic analysis of how different people's food spending is changing over the crisis relative to pre-crisis spending patterns. We will show how prices have changed and how the crisis is impacting the number of calories different people buy, how they obtain these calories (e.g. food out, takeaways or home cooked), the balance across different types of foods, and the overall quality of people's diets.
Our analysis will provide timely, invaluable information to policymakers tasked with ensuring a food supply chain that functions for all.
Publications
O'Connell M
(2021)
Preparing for a pandemic: spending dynamics and panic buying during the COVID-19 first wave
in Fiscal Studies
Jaravel X
(2020)
Real-time price indices: Inflation spike and falling product variety during the Great Lockdown.
in Journal of public economics
Jaravel X
(2020)
High-Frequency Changes in Shopping Behaviours, Promotions and the Measurement of Inflation: Evidence from the Great Lockdown.
in Fiscal studies
Blundell R
(2020)
Could COVID-19 Infect the Consumer Prices Index?
in Fiscal studies
| Description | Our objectives were to provide evidence on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on i) prices and promotions, 2) food purchasing and 3) diet quality, so as to better inform policymaking. Our key findings are: On prices and promotions: Month-to-month inflation for groceries in the first month of national lockdown was around 2.5%, a rate over 10 times higher than in preceding months, unprecedented in prior years, and more than we normally get in a year. This was driven by a reduction in promotions. The inflationary spike was largely reversed over the summer and price (though not quantity) promotions returned to normal levels. The inflation spike was driven by full-line supermarkets. It was experienced broadly across households, but with inflation somewhat lower for lower income households. On panic buying: There were large spikes in spending on storable food necessities and households supplies in the four-week run up to national lockdown. The was largely driven by more households than usual choosing to purchase from storable product categories, rather than a small number of households buying extreme quantities. Wealthier households stocked up by more than less well-off households; across all socioeconomic groups there was a sharp increase in purchases of storable products, but among the highest socioeconomic group, the average increase across affected categories was 55%, compared with 30% for the lowest group. On diet: There was a substantial and persistent increase in calories consumed at home that more than offset reductions in calories eaten out over the pandemic. By May 2020 (towards the end of the UK's first national lockdown), total calories were, on average, 15% above normal levels, and they remained higher than normal for the rest of 2020. All socioeconomic groups increased their calorie purchases, with the largest rises for the highest SES households and the smallest for retired ones. Our findings suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated changes in people's lifestyles have exacerbated the challenges of improving population diet and reducing obesity levels. Our work demonstrated the value of using real-time data to measure how prices and purchases respond in times of turbulence. We envisage both academics and practitioners following this in the future |
| Exploitation Route | We should how to use real time data to analyse important economic and social outcomes during a period of turbulence. |
| Sectors | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Retail |
| Description | Public knowledge: We press released our findings on the impact of the pandemic of diet quality. The work was covered in both the print and broadcast media, helping to bring to light to the public our findings. Policy: We have discussed our findings with policy makers in DEFRA and PHE. While it is difficult to pinpoint a change in policy directly relating to our work on diet quality, it is certainly the case that it has contributed to knowledge among policymakers. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2020 |
| Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Retail |
| Impact Types | Economic,Policy & public services |
| Description | Pandemic leads to big increase in calorie consumption |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | IFS press release |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |