COVID-19: Measuring the effects of Covid-19 on businesses and the UK economy
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Nottingham
Department Name: Sch of Economics
Abstract
This proposal, coordinated by the University of Nottingham under the umbrella of the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE), offers immediate data collection and research analysis about the impact of Covid-19 on businesses of different sizes, sectors and regions in collaboration with the Bank of England and Office for National Statistics. This real-time information is critical to decision making about the duration and management of the lockdown arrangements in the UK and business performance during the recovery from the Covid-19 episode.
Covid-19 is expected to create the largest contraction in UK economic activity in 300 years (real GDP down by 35%, unemployment up by 2 million in 2020Q2, Office for Budget Responsibility). The impacts on supply chains and demand are already affecting economies across the globe more deeply than ever experienced in living memory. HM Treasury and the Bank of England have launched large-scale programmes to support businesses as a bridge in the short-term to reduce unemployment and bankruptcy. Many more tough decisions will be required.
We will provide immediate business data for policy decisions and new research so that a balance can be struck between dealing with the medical and the economic costs of Covid-19. We will provide assessments of the costs in terms livelihoods - output, investment and jobs - so that policymakers have the data to form judgements about when to allow the economy to return to normality. Our inputs will be vital for government to understand the implications of these decisions on the UK economy over the next 18 months.
Covid-19 is expected to create the largest contraction in UK economic activity in 300 years (real GDP down by 35%, unemployment up by 2 million in 2020Q2, Office for Budget Responsibility). The impacts on supply chains and demand are already affecting economies across the globe more deeply than ever experienced in living memory. HM Treasury and the Bank of England have launched large-scale programmes to support businesses as a bridge in the short-term to reduce unemployment and bankruptcy. Many more tough decisions will be required.
We will provide immediate business data for policy decisions and new research so that a balance can be struck between dealing with the medical and the economic costs of Covid-19. We will provide assessments of the costs in terms livelihoods - output, investment and jobs - so that policymakers have the data to form judgements about when to allow the economy to return to normality. Our inputs will be vital for government to understand the implications of these decisions on the UK economy over the next 18 months.
Publications
Altig D
(2020)
Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.
in Journal of public economics
Bloom,N
(2020)
The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity
Bloom,N
(2020)
The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity
Bunn P
Firming up Price Inflation
Chen C
(2021)
Measuring business-level expectations and uncertainty: survey evidence and the COVID-19 pandemic.
in Japanese economic review (Oxford, England)
Mizen P
(2022)
Firming Up Price Inflation
| Description | What have you discovered or developed through the research funded on this grant? • new knowledge generated - Our survey has generated new knowledge about 1. Resilience to shocks from a survey focused on management practices updated with Covid-19 questions prior to placement in the field in September 2020, to document the ability of better- (worse-) managed firms to respond to shocks. 2. Evaluate the impact on businesses over the next 18 months regarding business performance (productivity), use of debt, digital technology, working practices, supply chains etc. We demonstrated using a survey of management practices conducted by the ONS that better managed firms were more resilient and more able to adapt and innovate during Covid, accepting the move to working from home and adopting online sales to replace in-person sales when required. This provided firms with more resilience, and these practices meant that the UK economy declined by less than it would have done without this resilience. Looking forward we were able to document changes that firms anticipate to investment priorities due to accelerated changes during Covid e.g. greater prevalence of working from home, less commuting etc. We were not able to look at supply chains in great detail, partly because the data we require to examine import and export of goods and services is not made available in an accessible way by HM Government. • new or improved research methods developed- We have contributed significantly to improving survey methods, producing high frequency, online surveys that release data in near real time to policy makers. This was particularly relevant during Covid, since the pandemic had no precedent in recent years, but policy decisions were needed immediately to save lives and protect businesses. The Deputy National statistician wrote that this encouraged the Office for National Statistics to set up the Business Impact of Covid Survey in 2020. The Chief Economist at the Bank of England told us that flexibility of our survey to pivot towards Covid was a particularly attractive feature for policymakers at the Bank of England. • new research questions opened up. Covid was a shock that followed hard on the heels of Brexit. A new question we addressed was 'Were the firms that were most affected by Brexit also most affected by Covid?' The answer was clearly no. Different types of firms were affected by these two shocks and we were able to document exactly which ones were affected by each type of shock. We were also able to ask 'How does a sequence of shocks affect the UK economy?' we showed that the effects for the UK economy of two significant shocks reduced output, employment, investment and productivity, and the UK performed less well than other G7 countries in terms of time taken to recover to the pre-Covid level of GDP. There were also places and business sectors that were more adversely impacted than others, presenting a challenge for policymakers to support them through targeted levelling up funds. Have you met your original objectives? Yes. The original objectives were to: gather critical data on the business response to Covid-19 quickly for immediate policy and future research use, and provide new research with a clear impact pathway that has the potential to deliver a significant contribution to the understanding of, and response to, the Covid-19 pandemic and its impacts on UK businesses. Using the Decision Maker Panel survey of nearly 11,000 senior executives from UK businesses across all sectors, we gathered data online, monthly which was immediately (within 2-3 days) passed to policymakers in the Bank of England, BEIS, Cabinet Office, 10 Downing St and COBRA. This was used for immediate policy decisions relating to lockdown arrangements and business support mechanisms. The data we collected produced raw microdata and summary data published on a Bank of England website and our own website www.decisionmakerpanel.co.uk. The data have been analysed by academics and policy-focused researchers in a number of working papers, blogs and academic articles as well as research supporting media articles, seminar and conference presentations that document the response to Covid-19 and the impacts on UK businesses. We share the data on the Bank of England website and our own website www.decisionmakerpanel.co.uk. This data is used by the media, professional economists in the financial sector, policymakers in the Bank of England and government. It is made available as a microeconomic data resource to academics through the ONS Secure Research Service. Several articles have appeared by other academics who make use of the DMP data. |
| Exploitation Route | Among our findings we documented the effects of Covid on firms according to the sector in which they operate. We found large variations in the impact on sales, employment and productivity for firms by sector. These effects were mitigated to a large extent with respect to business survival by the design of business support mechanisms e.g. business loans, and in relation to employment through the furlough scheme. The lasting implications of Covid are also documented, for example, the rapid shift towards working from home as a norm that varies across sectors, the reorientation of business investment towards intangible capital such as staff training, software, IT as opposed to buildings, plant and machinery. The intensity of these changes also differed by geographic location and business sector, creating winners and losers from the Covid episode. These findings are being taken forward by government departments such as BEIS, DLUCH and the Cabinet Office as they design mechanisms to improve growth and productivity in the 'new normal' after Covid. There are uses by academics, journalists, public policymakers. The findings are also shared with business survey participants through a monthly report letter citing our most recent findings. |
| Sectors | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Agriculture, Food and Drink,Chemicals,Communities and Social Services/Policy,Construction,Creative Economy,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Electronics,Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism,Government, Democracy and Justice,Manufacturing, including Industrial Biotechology,Culture, Heritage, Museums and Collections,Pharmaceu |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/research-publications/ |
| Description | Among our findings we documented the effects of Covid on firms according to the sector in which they operate. We found large variations in the impact on sales, employment and productivity for firms by sector. These effects were mitigated to a large extent with respect to business survival by the design of business support mechanisms e.g. business loans, and in relation to employment through the furlough scheme. The lasting implications of Covid are also documented, for example, the rapid shift towards working from home as a norm that varies across sectors, the reorientation of business investment towards intangible capital such as staff training, software, IT as opposed to buildings, plant and machinery. The intensity of these changes also differed by geographic location and business sector, creating winners and losers from the Covid episode. These findings are being taken forward by government departments such as BEIS, DLUCH and the Cabinet Office as they design mechanisms to improve growth and productivity in the 'new normal' after Covid. There are uses by academics, journalists, public policymakers. The findings are also shared with business survey participants through a monthly report letter citing our most recent findings. This project has provided near real-time data on current and future business activity and uncertainty to inform critical policy decisions by the Bank of England and UK government in response to Brexit and Covid-19. Beneficiaries included the Prime Minister, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, HM Treasury, Bank Policy Committees, other government departments and Parliament. Leading up to Brexit, DMP data: provided evidence on economic uncertainty in 21 meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) where it justified their decision to maintain interest rates at historic low levels; it informed the debate on the EU withdrawal agreement in Parliament through evidence to Treasury Committee; it supported fiscal policy responses specifically through change to the Annual Investment Allowances 2018-2021. During Covid, DMP data: justified looser monetary policies such as interest rate cuts, increases to funding schemes and asset purchases by the MPC; informed HM Treasury design of the full spectrum of Covid-19 support schemes such as furlough and business grants. These policies benefited businesses and their employees throughout the United Kingdom. The DMP inspired the ONS to develop its high-frequency Covid-19 business survey in 2020 to provide fortnightly data across government on which business policies are based. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2020 |
| Sector | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Chemicals,Communities and Social Services/Policy,Construction,Creative Economy,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Electronics,Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism,Government, Democracy and Justice,Manufacturing, including Industrial Biotechology,Culture, Heritage, Museums and Collections,Pharmaceuticals and Medical Biotechno |
| Impact Types | Societal,Economic,Policy & public services |
| Description | 2020 - References In Other Publications |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
| Impact | Data used directly by the Bank Of England and taken into consideration when deciding interest rates and the future of the UK economy |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/ |
| Description | 2021 - References In Other Publications |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
| Impact | Data used directly by the Bank Of England and taken into consideration when deciding interest rates and the future of the UK economy |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/ |
| Description | Bank of England - MPC - Paul Mizen |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or Improved professional practice |
| Impact | Regular use of DMP data presented and discussed with MPC members as well as being used in discussion within MPC meetings |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/people/monetary-policy-committee |
| Description | Citation in Monetary Policy Report, August 2020 |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
| Description | Citation in Speech by Andy Haldane (Member of the MPC), June 2020 |
| Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2020/the-second-quarter-speech-by-andy-hald... |
| Description | Clare Lombardelli (Chief Economic Advisor, HM Treasury, (19 January 2023) |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Meeting to discuss Key Finding and economic outlook |
| Description | Meeting with MPC members Catherine Mann (24 Nov 2022, 20 February 2023), Huw Pill (15 Feb 2023), Dave Ramsden (24 Nov 2022), Jonathan Haskel (31 Jan 2023, 13 Mar 2023) |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Meeting to discuss key finding and outlooks |
| Description | Meeting with Prime Minister's Special Economic Advisor on 12 December 2022 |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Discussed current Economic climate |
| Description | Midlands Engine - Paul Mizen |
| Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or Improved professional practice |
| Impact | Working from home will be a permanent feature for many staff, but occupations with higher remote working rates before the pandemic expect to have higher remote working rates as the pandemic begins to ease. There is a difference between work that can be done from home and what will be done from home. Large cities such as Birmingham and Leeds expect to see a large percentage of people working from home. There is evidence of 'doughnut' patterns, where those in city centers and in the outmost areas are most affected. The pattern reflects differences in affluence. If more people are working from home, will their spending on hospitality, such as coffees and sandwiches, also move closer to home? There is unlikely to be a full transfer of spending as services may not be available in the localities where people live. The report estimates that there is a £3 billion, or 1.5% of 2019 spending, desired reallocation of retail and hospitality spending. This translates to around 77,000 retail and hospitality jobs that could be lost or relocated. Some areas are expected to see job growth in Hospitality and retail, like Little Sutton & Roughley in Birmingham, while the city center is expected to see a dramatic loss. However, the estimated losses are uniformly bigger than any gains. These changes will disproportionately affect already affluent neighborhoods. Areas with higher worker densities, like Birmingham, will see a decline in employment densities. This will reduce the need for office space |
| URL | https://www.midlandsengine.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Covid-reallocation-of-spending.pdf |
| Description | Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, August 2020 |
| Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Description | Monetary Policy Committee Report, November 2020 |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-report/2020/november/monetary-poli... |
| Description | Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, November 2020 |
| Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2020/november-... |
| Description | Speech by Dave Ramsden, (Deputy Governor), The Potential Long-Term Economic Effects of Covid, November 2020 |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2020/the-potential-long-term-effects-of-cov... |
| Title | Management Expectations Survey 2020 (MES) |
| Description | This project commissioned and developed in partnership with the Office for National Statistics the 2020 Management and Expectations Survey (MES) to collect information from businesses in both the services and production industries about their management practices and expectations for their business in the future. Built on the first-wave MES conducted in 2017, MES 2020 has embraced several developments, including switching from paper to online, a larger sampling frame (increased from 25,000 to 50,000 firms), a more developed sampling strategy, and the inclusion of COVID-19-related questions to cater for emerging research and policy interests. The survey went live on the 9th November 2020 and ran until the end of December 2020. Results are anticipated to be released in Spring 2021. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | The information will be used to further investigate how management practices and uncertainty relate to productivity, as well as gauge businesses' expectations of Great Britain's economic climate in the near future. The data may be used by the government to inform policy-making on the economy and by other relevant institutions for research and decision-making. This may also be beneficial to businesses as the published statistics can be used as a benchmark to compare their business against the same, or across different, sectors. |
| URL | https://www.ons.gov.uk/surveys/informationforbusinesses/businesssurveys/managementandexpectations |
| Title | UK business responses to Covid-19 |
| Description | Webscraped data, regularly (fortnightly) collected information on responses to Covid-19 from business websites and news sources from February 2020 for 12 months based on set of keywords. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2020 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | These data will be linked to other data sets to help to understand and monitor the responses of UK businesses to the Covid-19 crisis. Analysis is currently underway. |
| Description | Office for National Statistics Collaboration |
| Organisation | Office for National Statistics |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | ONS and DMP have worked together to find ways that the DMP survey and teh new ONS BICS survey could work together collaboratively. We have held several meetings to coordinate questions, compare sample frames and survey overlap. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Bank of England colleagues have been helping to compare the survey sample frame. |
| Impact | No outputs yet, but we aim to agree a framework for working collaboratively during 2021. |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Telephone survey |
| Organisation | IFF Research |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | The aim of this partnership is to conduct a survey to validate data we have collected from online sources on firms' responses to the coronavirus. Our research team provided an initial draft questionnaire and provide a sample frame of 3,300 businesses drawn from the FAME database, at least 2,300 of which will have contact telephone numbers. |
| Collaborator Contribution | - IFF will help to advise and finalise the survey; - IFF will help telematch firms that do not have contact number on FAME, thus increasing the sample size for the survey; - IFF will train interviewers, conduct the interview with businesses and deliver results. |
| Impact | This partnership aims to collect reliable data from surveys on firms' responses to the coronavirus pandemic. This dataset will then be used to validate data we collected by web-scraping public websites. This exercise will have a significant economic impact. Specifically, it will help us assess the extent to which such sources can provide good-quality information on company's activities in response to the pandemic. |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | 2020 - Media Coverage |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Financial Times, December 2020: UK Services Activity Better Than Expected, Despite New Covid Curbs Bloomberg, November 2020: BOE's Ramsden Says Unclear if Vaccine Warrants Boost to Forecast Reuters, November 2020: Bank of England's Ramsden Sees Plus For Economy From Vaccine News The Telegraph, November 2020: Third of Hotels and Restaurants Fear Collapse Over 'Tough Winter' The Wall Street Journal, September 2020: The Stock Market Barely Faltered in the 1918-20 Pandemic. Is History Repeating Itself? Financial Times, August 2020: Central Bankers Grapple with Changed Landscape at Jackson Hole The New York Times, August 2020: As Uncertainty Threatens U.S. Growth, Fed Seeks More Firepower The Sunday Times, August 2020: V, W or Aarrgh? It Depends on the Virus - And Jobs The Times, August 2020: New Thinking For a New Normal: Embrace Change or Be Left Behind Sunday Times, June 2020: The Floor's The Limit - We Must Avoid Negative Interest Rates Chicago Booth Review, April 2020: The US economy Could Contract 11 Percent in 2020 Financial Times, March 2020: Bank of England Warns of 'Very Sharp' Economic Downturn New York Times, March 2020: More Firms Expect Brexit Uncertainty to Stretch Into 2021: Bank of England Reuters, March 2020: More firms expect Brexit uncertainty to stretch into 2021: Bank of England Action Forex, March 2020: 76% of UK firms expect Brexit uncertainty to persist until at least 2021 Nasdaq, March 2020: More firms expect Brexit uncertainty to stretch into 2021 - Bank of England Markets Insider, March 2020: BoE Survey Shows More Firms See Brexit Uncertainty Lasting Until At Least 2021 Financial Times, February 2020: Business Investment Expected To Pick Up As Brexit Begins To Clear Financial Times, January 2020: Is The UK Set For a Brexit Bounce? Financial Times, January 2020: Will the Bank of England Cut Interest Rates? The Times, January 2020: David Smith: Hoping For The Best on Brexit and World Trade Independent, January 20202: Brexit: Four in 10 Firms Still Think Uncertainty Will Not Be Resolved in 2020 Financial Post, January 2020: UK Businesses Report Fall in Brexit Uncertainty In Dec - BoE Survey MoneyAge, January 2020: Brexit Continues to Cause Uncertainty Amongst UK Businesses The Telegram, January 2020: UK Companies Turn a Little Less Gloomy Over Brexit Impact - BoE Survey Financial Times, January 2020: UK Hit by Sharpest Deterioration in Manufacturing in 7 Years Independent, January 2020: Brexit Uncertainty Lifted Slightly for Business Leaders - Survey Forexlive, January 2020: Cable gives back some of the late-year gains Belfast Telegraph, January 2020: Brexit Uncertainty Lifted Slightly for Business Leaders - Survey Bloomberg, January 2020: U.K. Election Result Reduces Companies' Brexit Uncertainty The Guardian, January 2020: Business Hope Fading for Brexit Clarity in 2020, Bank Says The Sun, January 2020: Election Booster, Print Only (p. 47) Evening Express, January 2020: Brexit Uncertainty Lifted Slightly for Business Leaders - Survey |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/media/ |
| Description | 2020 - References In Other Publications |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, December 2020, p. 6, p. 9 ONS - Labour Market Overview, UK, December 2020, p. 5 Impact of Covid-19 on UK Businesses - Evidence From the Decision Maker Panel in 2020 Q4, December 2020 Speech by Dave Ramsden, (Deputy Governor), The Potential Long-Term Economic Effects of Covid, November 2020, p. 2, p.11 Monetary Policy Committee Report, November 2020, p. 3, p. 23, p. 38-39 Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, November 2020, p. 5 Midlands Engine, The State of the Region, October 2020, p. 5, p. 18-19, p. 21, p. 23 Speech by Michael Saunders (External Member of the MPC), September 2020, p. 16 Treasury Committee Report, Economic Impact of Coronavirus: the Challenges of Recovery, September 2020, p. 42-43, p. 56 Bank of England, Financial Stability Report, August 2020, p. 20, p. 24 Midlands Engine, Economic Impact of Covid-19, August 2020, p. 3, p. 7 Monetary Policy Report, August 2020, p. 23, p. 42, p. 48 Covid-19's Local Economic Impact on Nottingham - An Initial Assessment, August 2020, Nottingham City Council, Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, August 2020, p. 5 Speech by Andy Haldane (Member of the MPC), June 2020, p. 11-12 Covid-19 and Brexit: Contrasting Sectoral Impacts on the UK ,VoxEU, June 2020 Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, June 2020, p. 6-8 What are the key sources of data for measuring the economy in a crisis?, Economics Observatory, June 2020 Speech by Michael Saunders (External Member of the MPC), May 2020, p. 9 Why Is Uncertainty So Damaging For The Economy?, Economics Observatory, May 2020 How is Covid-19 Affecting Businesses in the UK?, LSE, May 2020 Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, May 2020, p. 2, p. 9, p. 11, p.14 Monetary Policy Committee Report, May 2020, p. 30, p. 36, p. 39-40, p. 56 Financial Policy Committee, Interim Financial Stability Report, May 2020, p. 39 Measuring and Combating the Negative Economic Impacts of Coronavirus, Steven J Davis, Hoover Institution Economic Policy Working Group, April 2020, p. 14, p. 16, p. 19 COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty and Its Consequences, VoxEU Post, April 2020 Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, March 2020, p. 7 Mark Carney (Governor of the Bank of England) Report to the Treasury Committee, February 2020, p. 3 Dave Ramsden (Member of the MPC) Report to the Treasury Committee, February 2020, p. 1-2 Michael Saunders (External Member of the MPC), February 2020, p. 4 VoxEU, The Brexit vote, Productivity Growth and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the UK, February 2020 Monetary Policy Committee Report, (Data/Charts), January 2020, p. 2, p. 19-20, p. 40-41 Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, January 2020, p. 3-4, p. 6 Monetary Policy Press Conference, Opening Remarks by The Governor , January 2020 Speech by Michael Saunders (External Member of the MPC), January 2020, p. 9-11 Speech by Mark Carney (Governor of the Bank of England), January 2020, p. 14 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/ |
| Description | 2021 - References in Other Publicaitions |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, December 2021, p. 4 European Commission, Annual Research Conference, Vivien Lewis Discussion, November 2021, 12:56 Monetary Policy Committee Report, November 2021, p. 10, p. 25-26, p. 32-33, p. 42-45 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, November 2021, p. 6, p. 9 A Stronger Economy For The British People, Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021, p. 12 Productivity and Business Dynamics Through The Lens of COVID-19: The Shock, Risks and Opportunities, SINTRA, ECB, Chiara Criscuolo, October 2021, p. 38 2021 ECB Forum, October 2021 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, September 2021, p. 8 Monetary Policy Committee Report, August 2021, p. 9, p. 25, p. 38 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, August 2021, p. 4, p. 7 What has coronavirus taught us about working from home?, Economics Observatory, June 2021 What is the future of commuting to work?, Economics Observatory, May 2021 Monetary Policy Committee Report, May 2021, p. 21, p. 23, p. 28-29 Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, May 2021, p. 3 Jonathan Haskel, What is the future of working from home?, Economics Observatory, April 2021 Speech by Michael Saunders, (Member of MPC Committee), Supply and Demand During and After the Pandemic, March 2021, p. 9-13 How has working from home impacted productivity? This UK Survey Has Answers, World Economic Forum, March 2021 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, March 2021, p. 5 Working From Home is Revolutionising the UK Labour Markey, VoxEU, March 2021 Speech given by Andrew Bailey (Governor of the Bank of England), Resolution Foundation, March 2021, p.5-6, p. 10 Monetary Policy Committee Report, February 2021, p. 8, p. 22, p. 25, p. 37-38, p. 43 Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, February 2021, p. 5-6 Dave Ramsden Lecture: The Potential Long Term Effects of COVID-19, January 2021 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/ |
| Description | 2021 Media Coverage |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Financial Times, December 2021: Bank of England Seeks To Prove It Is In The 'Price Stability Business' Reuters, December 2021: UK firms Struggle to Find Staff, See Higher Inflation - BoE Survey The Times, November 2021: Can a Four-Day Week Be The Key To Solving The Productivity Puzzle? Financial Times, October 2021: Treating Companies Mean Will Not Keep Them Keen EconomicsUK.com, April 2021: Pluses And Minuses Of The Return To Business As Usual The Times, April 2021: Pluses And Minuses Of The Return To Business As Usual Insider, April 2021: America's Best Work-From-Home Expert Is Bracing For Turmoil The Times, March 2021: Can Go-Karts and Ski Slopes Save Town Centres? The Guardian, March 2021: Our Research Shows Working From Home Works, In Moderation EconomicsUK.com, March 2021: Now the Economy Braces For The Shock of The New Normal |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/media/ |
| Description | 2022 - References in Other Publicaitions |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, December 2022, p. 5, p. 9 Speech By Dave Ramsden Member of the MPC, That Was The Year That Was, November 2022 Speech By Jonathan Haskel, Member of the MPC: Recent UK Monetary Policy In A Changing Economy, November 2022 Monetary Policy Report, November 2022, p. 64, p. 79-80, p. 84 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, November 2022, p. 6, p. 8 Speech By Dave Ramsden, Member of the MPC: Shocks, Inflation, And The Policy Response, October 2022 Quarterly Bulletin 2022 Q4, Climate Change: Possible Macroeconomic Implications, Bank of England, October 2022 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, September 2022, p. 7 Speech by Catherine L Mann, Member of the MPC: Inflation Expectations, Inflation Persistence, and Monetary Policy Strategy, September 2022, p. 10-11, p. 13, p. 17, p. 23 Shared Stress: Uncertainty, Pay and Recruitment Strains Across the Charity and Private Sectors, August 2022 The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output, August 2022, p. 5, p.14-16, p. 23, p. 28, p. 36, p.39 Monetary Policy Committee Report, August 2022, p. 24, p. 34, p. 57, p. 60, p. 84 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, August 2022, p. 7-8 Shared Stress: Uncertainty, Pay And Recruitment Strains Across The Charity And Private Sectors, Pro Bono Economics, July 2022 Measuring Brexit Uncertainty: A Machine Learning and Textual Analysis Approach, CEPR Centre for Economic Policy Research, July 2022 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, June 2022, p. 4, p. 7-9 Bouncebackability, The UK corporate sector's recovery from Covid-19, Resolution Foundation, p. 20 The Macroeconomic Expectations Of Firms, NBER Working Paper Series, May 2022, p. 4 Speech by Huw Pill, Member of the MPC, The Economic Situation and Monetary Policy, May 2022 Speech by Michael Saunders, Member of the MPC, The Route Back to 2% Inflation, May 2022 Monetary Policy Committee Report, May 2022, p. 56, p. 60, p. 67, p. 76, p. 90-91 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, May 2022, p. 8-9 Intereconomics, On Returning Inflation to Target, April 2022 Speech by Catherine L Mann, Member of the MPC: A Monetary Policymaker Faces Uncertainty, April 2022 Speech by Sir Jon Cuncliffe, Deputy Governor: Monetary and Financial Stability and The Invasion Of Ukraine, April 2022 Speech by Michael Saunders, Member of the MPC The UK Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy, March 2022 Monetary Policy Committee Report, January 2022, p. 20-21, p. 25-26 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, January 2022, p. 5, p. 7, p. 12Speech by Catherine L Mann, Memeber of the MPC: On Returning Inflation Back to Target, January 2022, p. 2, p. 5-7, p. 11 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/ |
| Description | 2022 Media Coverage |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Financial Times, October 2022: UK Businesses Predict Record Price Rises Will Offset Higher Wage Bills Reuters, October 2022: UK Business Inflation Expectations Rise In September - BoE FXStreet, October 2022: BOE Survey: UK Business Inflation Expectations Keep Rising In September DailyFX, October 2022: BOE Survey: FTSE 100 Retreats as Sentiment Suffers on Fitch Downgrade and BoE Survey Bloomberg, September 2022: Truss's Energy Aid Boost for UK Mid-Caps May Prove Short-Lived Bloomberg, September 2022: British Executives See High Inflation Lingering for Three Years BNN Bloomberg, September 2022: Christmas Hiring Drives Job Vacancies in Britain to a New High FXStreet, September 2022: BOE Survey: UK Business Inflation Expectations Rise in August Nasdaq, September 2022: UK Business Inflation Expectations Rise In August - BoE Reuters, September 2022: Rising Inflation Expectations Pressure Bank of England Financial Times, July 2022: BoE Under Pressure As UK Companies Plan For Extended Period Of Inflation Financial Times, March 2022: UK Businesses Expect Prices To Soar In The Coming YearFinancial Times, January 2022: BoE Policymaker Hints At More Interest Rate Rises In The Coming Months PoundSterling Live January 2022: BoE's Mann: Hike Now To Keep Terminal Rate Low The Times, January 2022: David Smith: How WFH Averted A Bigger Economic Catastrophe Financial Times, January 2022: UK Business Confidence Takes A Sharp Hit From Omicron |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/media/ |
| Description | 2023 - References In Other Publications |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Speech by Huw Pill, Member of the MPC, Gauging (dis)Inflationary Pressures: Comparing Tools and Current Findings, February 2023, Slides, 7, 9-10 Speech by Catherine L. Mann, Member of the MPC, Turning Points and Monetary Policy Strategy Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, February 2023, p. 50-51, p. 53, p. 55, p.62, p.87-88 Monetary Policy Report, February 2023, p. 88 Speech by Huw Pill, Member of the MPC, UK Monetary Policy Outlook, January 2023 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/ |
| Description | A talk at the Keio Economic Society symposium. |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Presented research on firms' expectations and performance in a symposium where about 50 academics gattered, leading to a wide range of discussions about data, policy implications, and research directions going forward. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Bank of England Conference and Panel Participation - December 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | ESCoE website: Developing firm-level micro data for productivity analysis project page |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Description of project, overview, methods, impact, researchers involved and project outputs on the ESCoE website, launched September 2020. The project pages include details of both Understanding and Explaining Management Practices to Promote Higher Productivity in UK Businesses and Measuring the effects of Covid-19 on businesses and the UK Economy research. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020,2021 |
| URL | https://www.escoe.ac.uk/projects/developing-firm-level-micro-data-for-productivity-analysis/ |
| Description | ESRC Impact Prize - Finalist - November 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Outstanding Public Policy Impact - Near real-time data on UK business activity and uncertainty provided since 2016 by the pioneering Decision Maker Panel survey has helped shape UK government and Bank of England policy decisions in response to the economic shocks caused by COVID-19 and Brexit. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/about-us/escr-impact-prize/ |
| Description | ESRC-GSR Actionable Insights Seminar Series - July 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Dear Paul, On behalf of ESRC and government colleagues from policy and analyst teams, can I thank you again for presenting at our first Actionable Insights seminar yesterday. We thought it was an extremely positive start to the series. The engagement and questions showed interest in your findings amongst policymakers. At peak we had 150 policy stakeholders attend the seminar from across Whitehall, the devolved nations and local policy stakeholders. A breakdown of those attending is provided below. We also had very encouraging feedback from the chair, James Benford. We'll be sending a short evaluation form to attendees for feedback, to help us shape the seminar series and keep interest high. We'd also like to provide a short summary for attendees with any further links or reports to your research that you would like to highlight. If you could provide us with a 250 summary of your talk or research focus; any data or visuals you would want to highlight; and any relevant additional reading materials (send us a link if appropriate) we can include these in our follow up materials for attendees. We'll look to collate these summaries from all the seminars to report on the series as a whole. Once again, thanks for your participation. And if you have feedback for us then we'd be pleased to receive it. With kind regards, Charlotte Attendees, Seminar 1 Actionable Insights GOVERNMENT DEPARTMENTS ONS HMRC DWP DHSC Land Registry BEIS Education HM Treasury DFT MOD DEFRA Trade Cabinet Office Home Office GLA Transport HSSE CMA Communities DFID Environment Agency Food IPO Justice Sport England Trade Remedies UK Export Finance DEVOLVED ADMINISTRATIONS Scotland Wales NI OTHER ACAS British Business Bank UKRI |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/activities/esrc-gsr-actionable-insights-seminar-series |
| Description | Economics Observatory, May 2021: Update: Which firms and industries have been most affected by Covid-19? |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Businesses across the UK have been negatively affected by the pandemic, but the damage has not been equal. Certain sectors and certain firms within them have suffered more than others - and many have faced highly uncertain futures. The pandemic has affected all industries, but it has had a bigger impact on some firms and sectors than on others. The risks of infection from different activities, the ability of businesses to operate remotely and the policies to contain the spread of the virus have each played a role. These have all affected current business and expectations about the future. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.economicsobservatory.com/update-which-firms-and-industries-have-been-most-affected-by-co... |
| Description | Escoe - Greg Thwaites - The Impact of COVID-19 on Productivity - November 2020 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | We present forecasts of the impact of Covid-19 on productivity in the private sector of a representative industrialised country derived from a firm-level survey. Our estimates suggest that Covid-19 will reduce TFP by around 5 per cent in the year to 2021Q2. Firms anticipate a large, negative reduction in productivity within firms, which is more than fully accounted for by an increase in the use of intermediate inputs to produce sales. Part of this may not be fully measured in early vintages of official data. The negative within-firms effect is expected to be offset, partially and decreasingly over time, by a positive between-firms effect as employment shrinks most in the least productive sectors, and the least productive firms within them. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.escoe.ac.uk/events/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-productivity/ |
| Description | Federal Reserve Board - Black Swans: New Sources of Global Risks and their Effects - February 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | A group of distinguished economists, risk management professionals and other experts in the financial markets meet twice a year with the president of the New York Fed to discuss financial stability issues and present their views on financial policy. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Global Forum on Productivity - Webinar 3: Digitalisation, Intangibles and Productivity |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.oecd.org/global-forum-productivity/events/recordingandpresentations-webinars.htm |
| Description | Greg Thwaites - The Centre for Service Excellence (CenSE) is hosting a seminar on 'The impact of Covid-19 on productivity'. - May 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | This study conducted by researchers from the Bank of England, University of Nottingham, and Stanford University analyses the impact of Covid-19 on productivity in the United Kingdom using data copied from a large monthly firm panel survey. The estimates suggest that Covid-19 will reduce total factor productivity (TFP) in the private sector by up to 5%, falling back to a 1% reduction in the medium term. Firms anticipate a large reduction in 'within-firm' productivity, primarily because measures to contain Covid-19 are expected to increase intermediate costs. The negative 'within-firm' effect is partially offset by a positive 'between-firm' effect as low productivity sectors, and the least productive firms among them, are disproportionately affected by Covid-19 and consequently make a smaller contribution to the economy. In the longer run, productivity growth is likely to be reduced by diminished research and development (R&D) expenditure and diverted CEOs' time spent on dealing with the pandemic. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.business-school.ed.ac.uk/event/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-productivity |
| Description | Greg Thwaites - Workshop on economic lessons from the pandemic - 29 June 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2022-08/Economic-lessons-from-the-pandemic.pdf The COVID-19 pandemic, and measures to control its spread, led to severe economic dislocations. Governments had to quickly redesign systems of social support to deal with these unprecedented circumstances. Economists played a key role in designing and informing these policy choices, and were able to monitor their effects using data collected during the pandemic from a range of sources. This workshop - aimed at policymakers and academics - will bring together economists from a range of fields to draw out the most important policy lessons from the last two years. What consequences is the pandemic likely to have in the short and long term? What were the effects of different policy interventions on behaviour and well-being? And what lessons are there for policymakers tackling future economic downturns? |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://ifs.org.uk/events/workshop-economic-lessons-pandemic |
| Description | Greg Thwaites/Paul Mizen - University of Nottingham - Presentation to Academics May 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presented the 'Firming Up Price Inflation' paper to around 15 academics within the University of Nottingham |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Gregory Thwaites - IMF Research Department on 20 July 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presentation of research activities on 'Firming Up Price Inflation', spoke to the Chief Economist after the event to discuss findings. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.imf.org/en/Research |
| Description | IARIW-ESCoE Conference "Measuring Intangible Assets and The Contribution to Growth" - Paul Mizen - Nov 21 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Slide Pack - https://escoe-website.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/25105816/Session-2A-Management-Organisational-Capital-for-website.pdf |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://escoe-website.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/25105816/Session-2A-Management-Org... |
| Description | IMF Research Department (including the Chief Economist whom I spoke to 1-2-1 afterwards), Covid and Inflation - Greg Twaites |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation of results relating to Covid and Inflation to the INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Innovate UK - Paul Mizen - November 2021 - Board Presentation |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Innovate UK is the UK's national innovation agency. We support business-led innovation in all sectors, technologies and UK regions. We help businesses grow through the development and commercialisation of new products, processes, and services, supported by an outstanding innovation ecosystem that is agile, inclusive, and easy to navigate. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.ukri.org/councils/innovate-uk/?_ga=2.5777523.136892188.1645532289-1987101247.1633434877 |
| Description | Institute of Fiscal Studies - June 2022 - Greg Thwaites |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Institute for Fiscal Studies 7 Ridgmount Street, London WC1E 7AE This workshop - aimed at policymakers and academics - will bring together economists from a range of fields to draw out the most important policy lessons from the last two years. Presentation of data on , Covid, productivity and inflation |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Ivan Yotzov - University of Warwick Macro Workshop - October 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Workshop on 'Firming Up Price Inflation' |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/seminars/workshops/?start=03102022&view=fourWeek&tag=Macro%2... |
| Description | July 2021 Annual Conference of the Global Forum on Productivity joint with Italian presidency of G20 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Productivity gaps across firms are large and persistent in most countries and sectors. These gaps, however, present an important potential for lifting productivity if their underlying causes are addressed. To what extent the diffusion of advanced managerial practices and the overall improvement of workers and managers skills can help narrowing these gaps? How can public policies ensure that the digital transformation and the rise of intangible assets, which have been accelerated by the COVID-19 shock, do not exacerbate but rather reduce existing disparities in income and productivity? These questions become even more pressing as governments are in the process of shaping the path to the post-crisis economic recovery. Webinar 3 - Janice Eberly, Global Forum on Productivity: Digitalisation, Intangibles and Productivity |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.oecd.org/global-forum-productivity/events/recordingandpresentations-webinars.htm |
| Description | Lena Anayi - ASSA 2023 Annual Conference - Firming up Price Inflation, Expectations and Uncertainty - January 2023 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Inflation initially fell during the pandemic, but recent increases have taken it to thirty year highs in both the US and the UK. We use data from a large panel survey of firms to analyse the economic drivers of price setting during the Covid pandemic. We show that inflation responded asymmetrically to movements in demand. This helps to explain why inflation only fell modestly in the first year of the pandemic but picked up strongly in the second year. Firm also report expected price changes which respond strongly to recent realized and future forecast aggregate inflation, consistent with adaptive expectations. Finally, we also introduce a novel measure of inflation uncertainty within firms and show how this has increased during the pandemic, continuing to rise in 2022 even as sales and employment uncertainty dropped back. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2023/program/paper/rZZRnesb |
| Description | Lena Anayi - Covid and SMEs Bank of England workshop, 2 December 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presented evidence from the DMP survey on SME performance during Covid-19 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Life changes: these professional sectors largely abandoned by their employees before the Covid - Greg Thwaites |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | 1. In our survey of firms, we ask them about the future path of employment, sales and so on. We expect some firms to shrink and other firms to grow - i.e. we expect reallocation - because this is what they are telling us they expect to happen. Reallocation is important to ensure that labour and capital get to the places that the economy needs them to be. Reallocation is a normal feature of the economy, and our data show that reallocation increased during the 2008 recession. Furthermore, we know that the Covid-19 recession hit different sectors differently, and also had widely varying effects within sectors. So it is reasonable to expect that we will see a lot of reallocation over coming months, and this is indeed what we find in our survey. When it comes to mismatch, we know that a larger-than-average fraction of this larger-than-average reallocation will occur across sectors. To the extent that workers and business are specialised in particular sectors, they may not be well suited to the new tasks that other employers want them to perform. We will also see a geographic reallocation of workers who provide services to office workers from city centres to the places those office workers live. So we should expect to see a greater degree of mismatch than usual. The pandemic is common across the world but there is an additional, specific issue in the UK: Brexit. Brexit will increase the amount of reallocation in the UK, as trade with the EU has become more costly, redirecting resources towards the home market and non-EU countries. To the extent that EU workers previously helped to alleviate mismatches that arose in the UK labour market, this margin of adjustment is no longer available. 2. The process of moving workers and capital from one firm, location or use to another can be costly. Workers need to retrain and build know-how specific to their new jobs. Capital can be physically destroyed when it is no longer needed, as for example when a retail space is refit as an office or a dwelling. These costs will be larger than usual over coming years because, as our data show, more of the reallocation will happen across sectors. The costs will be particularly high for older and younger workers, rather than those of middle age. Other data shows that these groups have been most affected by the crisis, in terms of unemployment and furlough. Older workers will find it harder to change jobs and locations. Younger workers have been shown to suffer large pay penalties if they join the labour market. On the other hand, the increased popularity of home working may afford some workers more time, more flexible employment, and a greater choice of jobs. This could be especially valuable for those with family caring responsibilities, who are disproportionately women. Another positive could be that some high-paid employment may spread more widely across the country. 3. The government should provide extensive support for people to retrain, including for 'horizontal' moves into different but similarly-qualified roles. Furthermore, benefits during periods of job search should be high enough so that workers can take a bit of time to find the best job, rather than just taking the first one. The costs of moving house should not be raised excessively by housing transaction taxes, or by difficulties in relocating when in social housing. On the firms side, firms need to be able to access capital to grow, and also to be able to restructure their workforce without undue costs. Business premises should be able to change their use easily, to accommodate the sharp change in the geographic location of demand for office and retail space. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.atlantico.fr/article/decryptage/changements-de-vie---ces-secteurs-professionnels-largeme... |
| Description | Low Pay Commission - Paul Mizen - September 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | MMF conference @ University of Kent on 5 September - Phil Bunn |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presented data relating to inflation - Firming up Price Inflation, Expectations and Uncertainty |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Oct 21 - Productivity Growth: Past, Present and Yet to come - New York Ferderal reserve and Advisory panel - Nick Bloom |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Summary Pre COVID : Labor productivity and TFP growth 2010 - 2019 were 1.1% and 0.6% respectively During COVID : We see in top down (macro data) and bottom - up (aggregated firm) data similar trends - Labor productivity growth rose to about 3% - TFP productivity growth fell to about 0.3% Caused by positive reallocation across sectors and firms, and negative within firm capacity/cost impacts Post COVID : I will discuss one positive and three negative factors that could impact productivity + Working from home likely increases productivity by about 3% to 5% - Lost CEO time, lower capital utilization and supply constraints likely negative, but hard to quantify So, my guess would likely be similar to pre-COVID: LP and TFP growth of about 1% and 0.5% |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.dropbox.com/s/93m5ti2hu6xi0ls/NY_Fed_NickBloom.pdf?dl=0 |
| Description | Paul Mizen - Fifth Banco de España Annual Research Conference - December 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | The pandemic caused by COVID-19 had a very deep and significant impact on economic relationships, especially on international trade, social and employment policies, technological developments, and the macroeconomic context. Against this background, economic researchers and policy-makers are coming to terms with the duration of these changes and assessing how permanent they will be. The aim of the conference was to bring together world leading scholars and policy-makers, in order to discuss the medium to long-run consequences of the pandemic and the policy measures to address them. Pol Antrás, Nytia Pandalai-Nayar, Richard Blundell, Antonella Trigari, Karel Mertens, Paul Mizen, Luca Fornaro, and Michael Weber participated in the Conference. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.bde.es/bde/en/secciones/sobreelbanco/Conferencias/quinta-conferencia-anual-de-investigac... |
| Description | Paul Mizen - King's College London (March 2023) - academic seminar - March 2023 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Academic seminar attended by Paul Mizen to represent the data from the Decision Maker Panel |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Paul Mizen - Meeting with Innovate UK |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | InnovateUK Board would be keen to see a presentation of our findings around a) changing investment patterns after Covid based on DMP data; and b) R&D spending by firms with better/worse management practices. Geeta intends to suggest some dates and then invite us to present for about 45 mins using Powerpoint slides of results. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Paul Mizen - Peter Sinclair Memorial Conference - Birmingham, April 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The Departments of Economics at Birmingham and Oxford are organising a conference in honour of Peter Sinclair, to be held in Birmingham on 7-8 April 2022. Peter was a central figure in UK macroeconomics for more than half a century, so we will be marking his passing by bringing our community together to discuss the very latest developments in macroeconomics and monetary economics. Inflation expectations and uncertainty during Covid: Evidence from firm microdata, Paul Mizen (University of Nottingham) |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/schools/business/events/2022/peter-sinclair-memorial-conference.aspx |
| Description | Phil Bunn - Swiss National Bank (SNB) - SNB-FRB-BIS Second High-Level Conference on Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility, 8-9 November 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presented key findings from 'Firming Up Inflation' paper: https://www.snb.ch/n/mmr/reference/sem_2022_03_08_bunn/source/sem_2022_03_08_bunn.n.pdf |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.snb.ch/en/ifor/research/conf/other_academic_conferences/id/sem_2022_03_08 |
| Description | Philip Bunn - 53rd Annual Conference of the Money, Macro and Finance Society - September 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Firming up Price Inflation, Expectations and Uncertainty - Presented by Philip Bunn |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.mmf.ac.uk/conference/2022-conference/ |
| Description | PrOPEL Hub - Paul Mizen - Reimagine Management and Productivity in a Post-pandemic World |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | In this session chaired by Dr Cher Li, Professors Paul Mizen, Nick Bloom, John Van Reenen and Rebecca Riley, leading experts on management practices, business performance and industrial policy, explore future trends in management practices and productivity. Economic uncertainty was on the rise before the COVID-19 pandemic. Research shows how better managed organisations survived and thrived through past economic crises and the current pandemic. The pandemic has accelerated digital transformation, workforce reskilling and new forms of innovation. All of this will require significant experimentation and learning by managers. But it also affords a new opportunity to build better workplaces by reimagining norms around how/where we work and the role of management in enabling these transitions. In this video, Professors Paul Mizen, Nick Bloom, John Van Reenen and Rebecca Riley each bring a fresh perspective on the role of management practices for productivity, building a productive workforce, and current trends and lessons. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.propelhub.org/reimagine-management-and-productivity-in-a-post-pandemic-world/ |
| Description | Presentation at Dartmouth, NH (USA) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | to be completed |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Presentation at ESCoE COVID-19 Webinar Series |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | to be completed |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.escoe.ac.uk/events/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-productivity/ |
| Description | Presentation at IARIW 2022 General Conference |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation and discussion of: Investigating Businesses' Responses to COVID via Web Crawling and Text Mining |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://iariw.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Meng-et-al-IARIW-2022.pdf |
| Description | Presentation at IMF Research and Fiscal Affairs Departments |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | I gave a presentation of our findings about Covid and productivity |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Presentation at Jackson Hole Symposium. USA |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | to be completed |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Presentation at LSE, Jan 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Potential Capital and 2) COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty LSE - Jan 2021 - Potential Capital |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Presentation at World Bank, USA - Sept 2020 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Nick Bloom, World Bank: Presenting Productivity Growth After The Pandemic SEPTEMBER 2020 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/presentations/ |
| Description | Presentation at the Congressional Budget Office, USA |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Nick Bloom, Congressional Budget Office: Presenting "Uncertainty and Reallocation" JUNE 2020 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/presentations/ |
| Description | Presentation at the EEA Congress - Aug 2020 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | to be completeed |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.eeavirtual.org/ |
| Description | Presentation at the International Monetary Fund, USA |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | to be completed |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Presentations at American Economic Association, USA |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | American Economic Association, USA - 2 papers presented |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Presented at the Virtual East Asia Macroeconomics Seminar (VEAMS) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | About 50 academics and postgraduate students attended a seminar, which involved questions and discussion on various issues regarding firm learning, which resulted in more one-to-one meetings with academics. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.veamsmacro.org/past-seminars.html |
| Description | Quarterly Results Summaries - Released in conjunction with Bank of Englands Agents |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2022 Q4 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2022 Q3 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q3 2022 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2022 Q2 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q2 2022 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2022 Q1 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q1 2022 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2021 Q4 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q4 2021 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2021 Q3 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q3 2021 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2021 Q2 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q2 2021 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2021 Q1 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q1 2021 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2020 Q4 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q4 2020 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2020 Q3 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q3 2020 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2020 Q2 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q2 2020 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2020 Q1 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q1 2020 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2019 Q4 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q4 2019 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2019 Q3 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q3 2019 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2019 Q2 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q2 2019 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2019 Q1 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q1 2019 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2018 Q4 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q4 2018 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2018 Q3 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q3 2018 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2018 Q2 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q2 2018 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2018 Q1 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q1 2018 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2017 Q4 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q4 2017 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2017 Q3 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q3 2017 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/results-summaries/ |
| Description | Royal Economic Society - Workshop on Productivity and Structural Change - Paul Mizen - Nov 21 - Threadneedle Street |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | To be held on 25-26 November, this workshop, jointly organised by the Bank of England, MMF , NIESR and The Productivity Institute is on Productivity and Structural Change, a topic that is particularly pertinent after the still ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. This feeds into one of the TPI themes (Macroeconomic Trends and Policy) and is also related to The Transformed World part of the BoE's Research Agenda. In this hybrid workshop spread over two days we bring together some recent research that we hope will shed light on some of the issues. Physical participation is at the Bank of England Conference Centre in Threadneedle Street with simultaneous streaming as an online interactive event. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.res.org.uk/events-page/workshop-on-productivity-and-structural-change.html |
| Description | Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR), June 2020: How Working From Home Works Out |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Working from home (WFH) is dominating our lives. If you haven't experienced the phenomenon directly, you've undoubtedly heard all about it, as U.S. media coverage of working from home jumped 12,000 percent since January. The recent work has highlighted several recurring themes, each of which carries policy questions - either for businesses or public officials. But the bottom line is clear: Working from home will be very much a part of our post-COVID economy. So the sooner policymakers and business leaders think of the implications of a home-based workforce, the better our firms and communities will be positioned when the pandemic subsides. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://siepr.stanford.edu/research/publications/how-working-home-works-out |
| Description | Survey design meeting with the Japan MOPS team on the productivity dynamics during the Covid-19 pandemic |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Research meeting with the Japan MOPS team to design survey questionnaire of the second wave of the Management and Expectations survey. Survey design is conducted in a coordinated way with the Japan MOPS team so that we will have responses that are directly comparable between the UK and Japan, allowing us to investigate the driver of productivity dynamics during the Covid-19 pandemic bringing about parallel empirical analysis in Japan and the UK. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Temple University Economics Department Seminar |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | About 20 academics and postgraduate students attended a departmental seminar, which involved questions and discussion on various issues regarding firm learning, and more detailed discussions with academics and postgraduate students emerged subsequently. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://events.temple.edu/economics-fall-2021-seminar-series-tatsuro-senga |
| Description | The 3rd Keio-Waseda Macro Workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | About 20 academics attended a workshop, where we had questions and discussions on various issues regarding firms' price setting and its macroeconomic implications, with more discussion and talks being emerged subsequently. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | The Productivity Institute Research Conference - Paul Mizen - November 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.productivity.ac.uk/events/the-productivity-institute-research-conference-2/ |
| Description | Thu, May 27 11:00 AM Speaker: Paul Mizen, University of Nottingham Host: Kevin Kliesen "The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity" |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Thu, May 27 11:00 AM Speaker: Paul Mizen, University of Nottingham Host: Kevin Kliesen "The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity" |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://research.stlouisfed.org/conferences/econ_sem/past.html |
| Description | University of Edinburgh - Seminar May 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Nick Bloom presentation on findings from both Covid and Brexit grant |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.ed.ac.uk/economics/research/seminars/semester-two-20-21 |
| Description | VOx-EU - Jan 2021 - The impact of Covid-19 on productivity |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The Covid-19 shock has had asymmetric effects across sectors of the economy, with those sectors that involve the most social contact in consumption bearing the brunt. This column uses data from the Decision Maker Panel business survey data to assess how the spread of Covid-19 and measures to contain it are likely to affect productivity. It estimates total factor productivity in the UK private sector is likely to be lower than it would have been, by up to 5% in 2020 Q4, falling back to a 1% reduction in the medium term. Firms anticipate a large reduction in 'within-firm' productivity, primarily because measures to contain Covid-19 are expected to increase intermediate costs. Since the pandemic disproportionally affected firms in low-productivity sectors, and the least productive firms within these sectors, these become a smaller part of the economy and therefore a positive 'between-firm' reallocation effect partially offsets the negative 'within-firm' effect. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://voxeu.org/article/impact-covid-19-productivity |
| Description | VoxEU Post, January 2021: The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The Covid-19 shock has had asymmetric effects across sectors of the economy, with those sectors that involve the most social contact in consumption bearing the brunt. This column uses data from the Decision Maker Panel business survey data to assess how the spread of Covid-19 and measures to contain it are likely to affect productivity. It estimates total factor productivity in the UK private sector is likely to be lower than it would have been, by up to 5% in 2020 Q4, falling back to a 1% reduction in the medium term. Firms anticipate a large reduction in 'within-firm' productivity, primarily because measures to contain Covid-19 are expected to increase intermediate costs. Since the pandemic disproportionally affected firms in low-productivity sectors, and the least productive firms within these sectors, these become a smaller part of the economy and therefore a positive 'between-firm' reallocation effect partially offsets the negative 'within-firm' effect. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://voxeu.org/article/impact-covid-19-productivity |
| Description | VoxEU Post, March 2020: The Economic Impact of Coronavirus on UK Businesses |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The spread of COVID-19 has created an important new source of concern for firms. This column reports the findings of the latest Decision Maker Panel survey of UK CFOs, which show that businesses expected the spread of the virus to have a large impact on their sales over the next year. The impacts on sales were expected to be material across all sectors, but businesses in accommodation and food, leisure and transport services expected to be most severely impacted. The survey also suggests that COVID-19 is now a more important source of uncertainty than Brexit for most UK businesses. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://voxeu.org/article/economic-impact-coronavirus-uk-businesses |
| Description | World Bank Event |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The COVID-19 pandemic has plunged the global economy into its deepest recession since the Second World War. The pandemic is likely to leave lasting scars ranging from lower investment to the erosion of human capital. Ultimately, this may lower productivity and limit income growth. Conversely, the pandemic also raises the possibility of large structural changes to the global economy, some of which may be productivity-enhancing. How will longer-term growth prospects in emerging markets be affected? What policies should be enacted to limit the damage from COVID-19? At this event, esteemed experts in economics will discuss these questions in light of a new World Bank Group report, Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies. Panelists will consider many possible outcomes for emerging market economies and discuss how they can boost productivity by taking advantage of structural economic changes. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://live.worldbank.org/productivity-growth-after-pandemic |
| Description | XII Annual Conference - Central Bank Business Survey and Liaison Programs at the Bank of Canada in Ottawa - Ivan |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation - We use data from a large panel survey of UK firms to analyze the economic drivers of price setting since the start of the Covid pandemic. Inflation responded asymmetrically to movements in demand. This helps to explain why inflation did not fall much during the negative initial pandemic demand shock. Energy prices and shortages of labor and materials account for most of the rise during the rebound. Inflation rates across firms have become more dispersed and skewed since the start of the pandemic. We find that average price inflation is positively correlated with the dispersion and skewness of the distribution. Finally, we also introduce a novel measure of subjective inflation uncertainty within firms and show how this has increased during the pandemic, continuing to rise in 2022 even as sales uncertainty dropped back. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2022/firming-up-price-inflation |