Will Covid-19 change what the public expect of government?

Lead Research Organisation: NatCen Social Research
Department Name: Research Department

Abstract

COVID19 has created a major social and economic shock that has impelled government intervention on a scale unprecedented in peace time. A key question that now arises is whether this experience has changed voters' expectations of what government can and should do - and so altered the climate of public opinion with which politicians will have to deal once the public health crisis has ended.

This study will use survey research to assess whether attitudes in Britain have changed in three areas. First, has the anxiety created by the crisis and the experience of social distancing made us more or less trusting of others and tolerant of those who behave differently from ourselves? Second, has the economic shock and risk of unemployment changed our attitudes towards government spending and the provision of welfare to those of working age? Third, has the experience of an internationally transmitted disease created an increased wish to control our borders, most notably in respect of immigration?

The first survey will be conducted in 2020, the second in 2021. Both will ask questions that were previously asked on surveys before the pandemic, thereby making it possible to see how attitudes have changed.
 
Description This project has examined the impact of the COVID19 pandemic on voters' social and political attitudes. It pursued two main hypotheses.

First, has the expansion during the pandemic in the role of the government in the economy together with the unequal distribution in morbidity and mortality resulted in a climate of opinion that wishes to see a more active state, not least in attempts to reduce inequality?
Second, has the pandemic created a fear of contagion that has resulted in an increasing of 'othering' of those in minority groups, a decline in willingness to trust others, and an increase in more authoritarian values..

The research was pursued by reinterviewing - in two phases (in July 2020 and June 2021) - people who responded to the 2018 or 2019 British Social Attitudes surveys (before the pandemic). Use has also been made of data from the 2020 and 2021 British Social Attitudes surveys, separate cross-section surveys, the first in between the two waves and teh second shortly after the second, when the severe public health measures were coming to an end..

The findings suggest that the pandemic has not proven be a 'turning point in history' as some anticipated. Rather public reactions to the pandemic were more a 'barometer' of changes in social and political attitudes that were already in train before the pandemic.

Support for public spending in general and for welfare spending for those of working age in particular remained at much the same level as they had been before the pandemic, However in the years immediately prior to the pandemic, public opinion had already reacted against 'austerity' in public spending and had become more liberal in its attitude towards welfare, and this may have underpinned public support for the increased governmental intervention in the labour market that occurred.

There was a relatively high level of concern (and one that was far from new) about inequality before the pandemic, and much of the debate about the subject during the pandemic reflected that prior outlook. However, between them our four surveys conducted during the pandemic suggest that there was probably some increase in the perception that Britain is an unequal society, and that this may have been accompanied by some increase in suppoort for redistribution - though on this the evidence is not entirely consistent.

There were no consistent signs of a change in levels of social trust or in attitudes towards immigration. Meanwhile, rather than instigating a more authoritarian outlook, an existing trend towards a more liberal attitude towards social conformity and the rule of law continued further during the pandemic. The debates about whether the public health regulations were too intrusive or not were thus also a reflection of an trend in attitudes that was in evidence prior to the pandemic.
Exploitation Route A central question that has been facing the UK since the pandemic is whether a return to 'normal' also means a return to pre-pandemic levels of government activity, or whether there is now an appetite for a bigger state. In practice it has left the UK heading in the latter direction, with record levels of spending and taxation - a direction that the Liz Truss' administration tried but proved unable to reverse. Understanding of where the public stands on this subject is vital as politicians make decisions about the shape of post-pandemic public policy in what is a very difficult fiscal environment.
Sectors Government, Democracy and Justice
URL https://natcen.ac.uk/our-research/research/coronavirus-and-public-attitudes/
 
Description The finding that public attitudes towards welfare for those of working age continues to be more liberal than it was between c. 1997-2012 has been noted by a number of other commentators. The publicity that accompanied the publication in October 2021 and September 2022 of the latest British Social Attitudes report, both of which included chapters that used data from this project, generated considerable media interest, and helped widen public and media understanding of the fruits of our research. In particular, it has helped promote understanding of why the attempt of the Liz Truss administration to pursue a low tax, small state policy was ill-timed so far as public opinion iwas concerned.
First Year Of Impact 2020
Sector Other
Impact Types Cultural
 
Title Will Covid-19 Change What the Public Expect of Government? 
Description Data of two longitudinal waves of survey research conducted in 2020 and 2021, together with those gathered when respondents were first interviewed as part of the 2018 or 2019 British Social Attitudes surveys 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2022 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The publications that are listed for this award 
URL https://beta.ukdataservice.ac.uk/datacatalogue/studies/study?id=8911
 
Description Broken Britain? Social and Economic Attitudes in an Era of Crisis 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Presentation on developments in social attitudes in the wake of COVID given at a webinar launch of the 39th British Social Attitudes report.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://natcen.ac.uk/news/british-social-attitudes-era-crisis
 
Description Did the pandemic drive a desire for more generous welfare? New research suggests not 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article on The Conversation website summarising some of the results of our recently published research
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://theconversation.com/did-the-pandemic-drive-a-desire-for-more-generous-welfare-new-research-s...
 
Description Has COVID changed the political landscape? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Invited presentation to the Deloitte Academy
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description How has the COVID-19 pandemic impacted public attitudes? 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Online launch event for the 2021 Brutish Social Attitudes report. Included presentations on the impact of COVID-19 on social attitudes and of Brexit on trust and confidence in how Britain is governed.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.natcen.ac.uk/events/past-events/2021/october/how-has-the-covid-19-pandemic-impacted-publ...
 
Description Post Pandemic Politics 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Presentation at webinar organised by the Global Success Partnership
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Post-Covid Attitudes to Inequality & Welfare 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Presentation to members of the Open University Law Society on the impact of COVID-19 on attitudes towards inequality and welfare.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Post-Covid Attitudes to Inequality & Welfare 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation on the impact of COVID-19 on attitudes to inequality and welfare as part of an Understanding Society webinar on 'Transforming Social Policies; bridgeheads for change'
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.understandingsocietyconference.co.uk/events/2021/06/25/transforming-social-policies-poli...
 
Description Post-Covid Attitudes to Public Services & Welfare 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Invited presentation at the Annual Seminar of the Association for Public Service Excellence on the impact of COVID-19 on attitudes towards public services and welfare
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.apse.org.uk/apse/index.cfm/events/previous-seminars/2021/apse-annual-seminar-2021/presen...