UK-India Bilateral Trade in FinTech and FinTech-Enabled Services: Emerging trends and potential for growth

Lead Research Organisation: University of Essex
Department Name: Essex Business School

Abstract

FinTech refers to a wide range of ways in which new technologies are being used to deliver financial services, often delivered by start-up firms rather than established financial services firms such as banks. This project aims to enable increases in the quantity and maximise the benefits of trade between India and the UK by identifying potential changes to FinTech-related regulation, policy and practice at a time of rapid growth in the sector. Trade between India and the UK has the potential to grow enormously, benefiting consumers, businesses and governments in both nations; given the thriving state of the domestic FinTech industries in both countries, but low levels of trade in in FinTech and FinTech-enabled services, enhancing trade in this area is a particularly promising avenue for strengthening bilateral trade in goods and services between the two countries.

We have four research aims, which are expressed in our research questions:

(1) What is the current evidence on barriers to and enablers of trade in FinTech and FinTech-enabled services?

(2) What changes could be made to regulation, policy, practice and investment to increase the quantity and maximise the benefits of FinTech trade between India and the UK?

(3) What are the factors specific to FinTech start-ups that influence their ability and appetite to trade internationally?

(4) What is the role of FinTech in promoting cross-border investment?

The proposed project will adopt mixed-methods, including literature reviewing, documentary analysis, qualitative interviewing, and analysis of quantitative firm-level data to establish the barriers to and enablers of trade in FinTech and FinTech-enabled services in order to identify potential changes to regulation, policy and practice that could increase the quantity and maximise the benefits of FinTech trade between India and the UK.

Our research objectives are:

(1) to conduct a systematic and comprehensive review of the scholarly and policy/practice literature in order to establish the current evidence on barriers to and enablers of trade in FinTech and FinTech-enabled services;

(2) to analyse and assess regulatory, policy, practice and investment documents in order to identify what changes could be made to increase the quantity and maximise the benefits of FinTech trade between India and the UK;

(3) to conduct key stakeholder interviews and surveying in order to establish the factors specific to FinTech start-ups that influence their ability and appetite to trade internationally; and

(4) assemble and analyse a database of bilateral investments identifying the degree to which each has been facilitated by FinTech in order to establish the role of FinTech in promoting cross-border investment.

As well as producing scholarly outputs, our study will produce findings that will be of direct relevance to regulators, policy-makers and various practitioners in FinTech and adjacent sectors. We will disseminate these findings to the relevant audiences in order to provide them with additional tools to enhance trade in FinTech and FinTech-enabled services between India and the UK.

The UK project team is led by researchers from the Essex Business School and the Centre for Computational Finance and Economic Agents (CCFEA), School of Economics; Centre for Global Finance, SOAS; Lancashire School of Business and Enterprise. The Indian team is led by RIS, New Delhi; IIDS, New Delhi; GIFT, Thiruvananthapuram. The project will be supported by an international advisory board.

Planned Impact

The planned outputs will strengthen the bilateral trade relations between India and the UK, particularly trade in services. The knowledge coming out of the project will help academics and businesses to maximise their potential markets and consumers which will benefit from the diversity of services than they otherwise would.

Since services often cannot be separated from traded goods and an integral part of inputs in the production of manufacturing products, our findings will have an enhanced impact as an enabler in the production of traded goods.

A distinct part of the project deals with conceptualising and estimating the effects of policies and regulation on both business attitudes and trade outcomes. The outcomes of this analysis will therefore be of particular interest to both policymakers and businesses. Policymakers such as central banks, financial regulators and finance ministries will benefit from the supply and demand barriers to trade in services between the two countries. Since we cover the issues of privacy and discrimination, we will ensure policymaker engagements through the forums such as CityUK, Confederation of Indian Industries, Niti Ayog etc through discussions and other joint events. The business community will benefit form a better understanding of the effects of policies and regulations on themselves and on aggregate trade.

We will adopt high levels of user engagement and maximise research impact, including top international publications, seminars and presentations. We will organise two conferences to present the project work, one in the UK and in India. In addition, we will contribute to the annual conferences of UNCTAD, American Economic Association, Indian Economic Association and Development Studies Association (UK).

We will publish working papers through IZA, Bonn and the Working Paper series of RIS, New Delhi and ISID, New Delhi. We will also produce articles for a variety of well-known user publications and media in the UK and in India.

The ease and greater convenience of FinTech pose questions on how to protect privacy. The findings of our study would be beneficial for data-driven online businesses and marketers.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description (1) Regulatory sandboxes:
Ignoring the differences in the tone of communications and reports between FCA and RBI, there are a few major differences between the Regulatory Sandboxes in India and the UK:
1. The sandboxes in the UK are currently open throughout the year. But even when it was cohort-based, the sandboxes were still available to a diverse set of themes and sectors. RS cohorts in India are conducted primarily theme/sector based.
2. There is a minimum capital requirement for participating in the sandbox in India. While it has been stated in the RBI's Enabling Framework for Regulatory Sandbox4 that this may be waived, it has also been stated that this would be considered an important and necessary condition when a large number of firms apply
to participate in RS during a particular cohort.
3. FCA also mentions features like Signposting, Informal Steer, and Individual guidance being available to firms. RBI's Enabling Framework for Regulatory Sandbox doesn't mention any such tools being available for applicants.
(2) Reappraising controversies in fintech literature and searching for the solution
We are finalising our empirical research related to some of these issues.
Disrupting and/or stabilising (Sangwan et al., 2019)'; Sandboxes vs innovation hubs/clusters (e.g. Buckley et al., 2020)' Impossibility triangle!? (Brummer & Yadav, 2017)
Is it really impersonal? (Alaassar et al., 2020)
Startups and funding - The issue of valuation (Moro-Visconti, 2021); Sources of funding (Brandl & Hornuf, 2020; Hornuf et al., 2021); Critical mass and regime switches (Kolokas et al., 2020; Social elements
(3) We are also working on the trend and destinations of DFI in the fintech sector in both India and the UK.
Exploitation Route We will be producing a policy paper series soon. We plan to have two well-planned events this year.
Sectors Communities and Social Services/Policy,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Government, Democracy and Justice

URL https://ukindiafintrade.com
 
Description We are working through the fintech firms and.acknowledge dissemination process is going on.
First Year Of Impact 2022
Sector Financial Services, and Management Consultancy
 
Description BRICS Virtual Economic Conclave, organised by the Ministry of Finance (GOI) and the Reserve Bank of India with RIS. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Professor Arun chaired the session on the digital economy, attended by Dr Alexandera Morozkina (Ministry of Finance, Russian Federation), Arvind Gupta (Head, Digital India Foundation) and Keyzom Ngodup Massally (UNDP, New York), among others.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://ukindiafintrade.com/brics-virtual-economic-conclave-2022
 
Description Central Bank Fiat Money and Competing Cryptocurrencies as Payment Media and Speculative Asset: At What Cost to the Real Economy ? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Cryptocurrencies (CCs) that are primarily held as speculative assets bring about disintermediation effects by sucking in household savings and leveraged funds to fuel price booms. These bubbles are underpinned by national fiat money and hence the diversion of funds from other investments and the loss of liquidity should be monitored carefully by central banks. We develop an agent based based model calibrated to data to quantify the drain on societal resources to finance the speculative booms followed by busts in CC prices. The CC transaction networks are found to have a characteristic topology in that 70% of the CC wallet addresses only have a single incoming flow of funds and no outgoing links to designate transaction payments. The latter are predicted to fall even further during the run up to a CC bubble as investors hoard the CCs and not spend them.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://www.centreforglobalfinance.org/cgf-events-list/2022/5/11/central-bank-fiat-money-and-competi...
 
Description DIALECTICS 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Professor Arun delivered a talk on finance and development in which he covered fintech in the multidisciplinary seminar series organised as part of DIALECTICS 21 generated huge interest among postgraduate and undergraduate students.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://ukindiafintrade.com/finance-and-development
 
Description Fintech for sustainable and inclusive development 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Professor Arun chaired a "fintech for sustainable and inclusive development" session, which generated enormous interest.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://aidigecon.com/ukieri-dst-conference
 
Description Frontiers webinar on narrow and general intelligence 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Professor Markose moderated a high-profile webinar on achieving artificial general intelligence. The event attracted considerable interest among the students and academic community globally.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://ukindiafintrade.com/upcoming-frontiers-webinar-on-narrow-and-artificial-general-intelligence
 
Description IIC-RIS-Essex event on Banks, Finance and changing form of technology-new options with fintech - 23rd April, 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact IIC-RIS and Essex organised this high-profile event on "Banks, Finance and Chaing form of technology: New options with Fintech". Professor Arun took part as a panellist and Dr Srinivas Yanamandra, Chief of compliance, new Development Bank, Shanghai. Dr T. Rabi Sankar, Deputy Governor, RBI, delivered the keynote speech. The event generated enormous interest among policymakers and practitioners.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://ukindiafintrade.com/banks-finance-and-changing-form-of-technology-new-options-with-fintech
 
Description Keynote address in the conference on "Redefining the business and management paradigm using technological innovations in the society 5.0 era", organised by the Universities of Surabaya and Mataram in Indonesia (27th May, 2021) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Professor Arun made a keynote lecture on the 'role of digital finance in redefining the business and management paradigm' in the conference. There is an overwhelming interest in the lecture among students of multiple institutions and practitioners..
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://ukindiafintrade.com/webinar-redefining-the-business-management-paradigm-using-technological-...
 
Description Professor Sheri Markose joined with leading experts from the IMF and Bank of England to give a lecture at the College of Supervisors of the Reserve Bank of India Webinar covering Systemic Risk Monitoring and Macroprudential Policy 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Sheri urged the use of an R-number measure for financial contagion based on who-whom balance sheet data that can overcome 'volatility paradox' of the more popular market price-based systemic risk measures which underestimate risk during market price booms and fail to give early warning.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL http://www.acefinmod.com/macroprudential-policy-formulations-implementing-financial-stability-mandat...
 
Description Research and Impact Seminar - the role of fintech in promoting cross boarder investments 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact "Rise of Fintech and Fintech-Enabled Services- Patterns, Models and Challenges", Seminar on this draft RIS Discussion Paper by Prof. Sachin Chaturvedi, Dr. Priyadarshi Dash, Ms. Siddhi Sharma and Ms. Sukhmani Kaur.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://ukindiafintrade.com/establish-the-role-of-fintech-in-promoting-cross-border-investments
 
Description Research and Impact Seminar - Neobanking landscape in UK and India 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Professor Thankom Arun, gets together with twimbit's research director- Varnika Goel, to discuss the neobanking landscape in UK and India and how they can develop powerful synergies.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://ukindiafintrade.com/impact-webinar-neobank-world
 
Description Research and Impact Seminar Series - Fintech Revolution: What's the status quo? 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The Fintech Revolution: What's the status quo?
Professor Victor Murinde
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://ukindiafintrade.com/upcoming-webinar-the-fintech-revolution-whats-the-status-quo
 
Description Research and Impact seminar series - An overview of the fintech startup sector in the UK and India 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact An overview of the fintech startup sector in the UK and India
Professor Thankom Arun and Dr. Reji Joseph
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://ukindiafintrade.com/impact-webinar-the-fintech-start-up-way
 
Description Research and Impact seminar series - How 'open' is open banking? 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact The project developed an impact seminar series in the first year to engage with policymakers and users early in the project cycle to understand the critical issues in a dynamic fintech sector.

How 'open' is open banking? - Hue Davies, Co-founder and COO Ozone API; Kevin O'Leary FINTECHNEXT project, UCC, Ireland and Vaibhav Garg, Head of Business Strategy, Open Financial Technologies
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://ukindiafintrade.com/how-open-is-open-banking
 
Description UKIERI/DST CONFERENCE 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Professor Sheri Markose chaired a session on "foundational aspects of general intelligence and AI'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://aidigecon.com/discussion-2
 
Description UKIERI/DST CONFERENCE 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Professor Markose presented "self-reliance as the basis of economic intelligence and blockchain' which generated significant interest among the participants.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://aidigecon.com/self-reference-as-the-basis-of-genomic-intelligence-and-blockchain
 
Description Why Policy Fails ?: A Complexity Perspective on Novelty Production and Rule Breaking 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Traditional Control Theory wherein optimal policy is one which minimizes white noise deviations from a quantitative target is the basis of policy design in Macroeconomics. This flawed framework assumes that the only thing that stands in the way of achieving policy objectives is random white noise rather than strategic responses of highly intelligent regulatees. This has been the subject of the Lucas Critique and Goodhart's Law. The Lucas Critique indicates that policy will be rendered ineffective or 'negated' by regulatees who can predict it. In response, Lucas recommended that policy makers need to produce 'surprises' in order for policy to be effective. The Lucas Critique per se refers to the impossibility of econometric models to identify the ensuing structure changing dynamics from the regulatee-regulator interactions. Likewise, Goodhart's Law indicates that a variable made the object of policy will become unstable thereafter as regulatees game the system in innovative ways. I will go further and say that as Game Theory and extant Decision Sciences, respectively, do not have the wherewithal for strategic innovation in a Nash equilibrium of a game and restricts actions within what is already known, there is a blind spot regarding complex behaviours which produce radical uncertainty in the form of an arms race in novelty and surprises.

While policy failures are known to arise from A.O Hirschman style 'futility, perversity, jeopardy' arguments encompassing unintended consequences, perverse incentives and fallacy of composition, a more foundational approach is needed for why determinism and precommitment to fixed rules will be punished by adversarial regulatees with unbounded capacity to innovate. Following the famous game theorist, Ken Binmore, who brought in the spectre of Gödel in the form of the Gödel's Liar who will negate/falsify what is computable, I have developed a new class of games in which strategic coevolutionary arms race in novelty production is a Nash equilibrium of games with adversarial agents like Gödel's Liar. Where the latter cannot be kept in check, certain rule-based systems have to be abandoned and policymakers need to expend large resources in monitoring and horizon scanning and/or show preparedness to do running repairs and coevolve rules. Genomic intelligence from get-go evolved to 'think outside the box' rather than be restricted to prespecified actions. Examples given range from how policy failed directly from Gödel style Liar attacks on Currency Pegs used for inflation targeting and also the rampant financial innovation in the Great Financial Crises (GFC) where Haldane (2012) and Eichengreen et. al. conclude that it was a case of poorly designed regulation with perverse incentives that almost brought about the demise of Western economies.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL http://www.acefinmod.com/sheri-markose-invited-to-give-guest-lecture-at-the-australian-national-univ...