Zika: Zika in Colombia: Characterisation of exposure and epidemiology in a flavivirus endemic setting
Lead Research Organisation:
Imperial College London
Department Name: UNLISTED
Abstract
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Technical Summary
Following the large-scale epidemic in Brazil in 2015, Zika continues to spread across Latin America. However, our understanding of the transmission dynamics and epidemiology of this new threat remains poor. In particular we have limited information on the extent of population exposure: many infections remain asymptomatic or cause mild disease which can easily be misdiagnosed, while antibody cross-reactivity between flaviviruses make the results of serological testing difficult to interpret given much of the region is endemic for dengue.
With 31.000 cases reported by Feb 2016 (4 months after the first case was diagnosed), Colombia is currently the second most affected country. Our proposal seeks to characterise the epidemiology of Zika in Colombia and establish a Colombia-focussed research network of partners with complementary expertise.
We will install state-of-the-art serological testing facilities in Colombia and conduct serological surveys in four cities with varying levels of dengue transmission intensity and reported Zika case incidence. We will develop statistical models to analyse age-stratified flavivirus seroprevalence data in a context where multiple flaviviruses co-circulate. These will allow us to characterise the force of infection, attack rate and transmissibility of Zika. We will then use these estimates to assess current levels of herd immunity to Zika thus predict possible future attack rates. Finally, we will estimate the proportion of infections which are asymptomatic and the per-infection risk of severe outcomes (e.g. microcephaly).
The outputs from this project will be of immediate value in enabling improved situational awareness and in informing the development of evidence-based control strategies.
With 31.000 cases reported by Feb 2016 (4 months after the first case was diagnosed), Colombia is currently the second most affected country. Our proposal seeks to characterise the epidemiology of Zika in Colombia and establish a Colombia-focussed research network of partners with complementary expertise.
We will install state-of-the-art serological testing facilities in Colombia and conduct serological surveys in four cities with varying levels of dengue transmission intensity and reported Zika case incidence. We will develop statistical models to analyse age-stratified flavivirus seroprevalence data in a context where multiple flaviviruses co-circulate. These will allow us to characterise the force of infection, attack rate and transmissibility of Zika. We will then use these estimates to assess current levels of herd immunity to Zika thus predict possible future attack rates. Finally, we will estimate the proportion of infections which are asymptomatic and the per-infection risk of severe outcomes (e.g. microcephaly).
The outputs from this project will be of immediate value in enabling improved situational awareness and in informing the development of evidence-based control strategies.
Organisations
- Imperial College London (Lead Research Organisation)
- University of Wisconsin-Madison (Collaboration)
- Industrial University of Santander (Collaboration)
- Johns Hopkins University (Collaboration)
- Pasteur Institute, Paris (Collaboration)
- University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Collaboration)
- National Institute of Health (Collaboration)
People |
ORCID iD |
Publications
Charniga K
(2021)
Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014-2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia.
in PLoS computational biology
Ferguson NM
(2016)
EPIDEMIOLOGY. Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America.
in Science (New York, N.Y.)
Lessler J
(2016)
Assessing the global threat from Zika virus.
in Science (New York, N.Y.)
Description | Memorandum of Understanding with National Institute of Health |
Organisation | National Institute of Health |
Country | Colombia |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Commitment to cooperative working and exchange of research in public health and education activities in science and technology. |
Collaborator Contribution | Commitment to cooperative working and exchange of research in public health and education activities in science and technology. |
Impact | Kelly Charniga funded by Imperial President Scholarship |
Start Year | 2017 |
Description | Zika - Institut Pasteur |
Organisation | Pasteur Institute, Paris |
Country | France |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | Investigators from the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling designed the collaboration and are now overseeing it. |
Collaborator Contribution | Training of lab techniques and provision of reagents. |
Impact | Too early to report |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | Zika - University of Santander |
Organisation | Industrial University of Santander |
Country | Colombia |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Investigators from the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling designed the collaboration and are now overseeing it. |
Collaborator Contribution | Serological surveys, fieldwork, and testing. |
Impact | Too early to report |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | Zika - University of Wisconsin |
Organisation | University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Investigators from the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling designed the collaboration and are now overseeing it. |
Collaborator Contribution | Serological surveys, fieldwork, and testing. |
Impact | too early to report |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | Zika Collaboration - 2015 |
Organisation | Industrial University of Santander |
Country | Colombia |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Modelling of the Zika virus to characterise the transmission dynamics of the first wave of Zika in Colombia |
Collaborator Contribution | Epidemiological research on flaviviruses |
Impact | Forthcoming |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | Zika in Columbia: early characterisation of epidemiological potential |
Organisation | Industrial University of Santander |
Country | Colombia |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Analyse data |
Collaborator Contribution | Processing of samples, serosurveys and analysing data |
Impact | DOI: 10.1126/science.aag0219 |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | Zika in Columbia: early characterisation of epidemiological potential |
Organisation | Johns Hopkins University |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Analyse data |
Collaborator Contribution | Processing of samples, serosurveys and analysing data |
Impact | DOI: 10.1126/science.aag0219 |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | Zika in Columbia: early characterisation of epidemiological potential |
Organisation | Pasteur Institute, Paris |
Department | Laboratory for Urgent Response to Biological Threats |
Country | France |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | Analyse data |
Collaborator Contribution | Processing of samples, serosurveys and analysing data |
Impact | DOI: 10.1126/science.aag0219 |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | Zika in Columbia: early characterisation of epidemiological potential |
Organisation | University of Wisconsin-Madison |
Department | Department of Pathobiological Sciences |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Analyse data |
Collaborator Contribution | Processing of samples, serosurveys and analysing data |
Impact | DOI: 10.1126/science.aag0219 |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | Abingdon School - Careers evening |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Mixed group |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Chagas-Symposium-IC 18: "How can modelling contribute to achieving the goals for Chagas disease in the horizon 2020 and beyond?" |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Chagas disease remains as a major cause of heart disease morbidity and mortality in Latin American countries. In the last three decades, most endemic countries have made great strides towards the control of Chagas disease by implementing mainly vector and blood transfusion control. However, the impact of such interventions has, by and large, not been rigorously quantified, and questions remain as how to address old and new challenges as countries progress towards the goals proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) in the horizon 2020 and beyond. These goals aim to achieve interruption of intra-domiciliary (vectorial) transmission in all endemic countries and to have all infected/ill patients under care. However, estimates of the current status of intra-domiciliary transmission and burden of disease in endemic countries remain poorly documented, making it difficult to ascertain progress, identify areas that need strengthening, and make programmatic decisions about deploying the most cost-effective interventions. The Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College London in collaboration with Princeton University and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) is convening a symposium funded by the Neglected Tropical Disease Modelling Consortium to define overarching challenges and research priorities, explore opportunities, develop collaborations, and build strategies towards a research agenda for rigorous mathematical modelling to help measure and inform progress on control and elimination of Chagas disease in Latin America. Specifically, discussions will be centred around the theme of how can mathematical models help to highlight country programme priorities and measure the progress made, and how can endemic countries help to inform the models and make best use of them to plan, deploy and evaluate country-specific and cost-effective interventions. The meeting will bring together representatives of international organizations, scientific researchers, programme managers, non-government and non-profit organizations, industry partners, government representatives, and community stakeholders to identify and articulate opportunities for long-term, impactful, and country-relevant collaborative research. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | http://www.chagas.co.uk |
Description | Cosy Science - Café Scientifque - Zika virus (Pierre) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | A public talk/café scientifique on the zika virus transmission and epidemiology |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Glasgow Science Festival 2017 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Glasgow Science Festival, Glasgow, Scotland |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Short Course in Bogota: Epidemics Analysis, Modelling and Response |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | The course will provide an introduction to modelling and statistical techniques for analysing infectious disease epidemics. The methods presented will include tools for visualising epicurves, estimating transmissibility, deriving short term predictions of incidence, modelling infectious disease dynamics and assessing the impact of intervention strategies. The course will consist of lectures during the mornings and hands-on practical in the afternoon. All practicals will be using the R software. A basic knowledge of R will be assumed from the participants. The entirety of the course and teaching material will be in English. A certificate of attendance will be delivered upon completion of the course. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | https://epicoursebogota.netlify.com/ |
Description | WISDOM - Women in Science Doing Outstanding Mathematics |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Girls and accompanying adults |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | William Guy Lecturer - Royal Statistical Society |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | William Guy Lecturer for Royal Statistical Society 2016-17 - "Statisctics and Epidemiology, how numbers help to control diseases". Talks in schools and other events in UK and US Abingdon Prep School,Frilford, Oxfordshire Henry Box School, Whitney, Oxfordshire Mishawaka High School, Mishawaka, Indiana Walt Disney School, Mishawaka, Indiana Beal High School (Redbridge), Ilford, Essex Abingdon School (and invitations to St Helen and St Katharine girls school), Abingdon, Oxfordshire Kingston University Northern Ireland Science Festival, Belfast Wycombe High School, High Wycombe |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016,2017,2018 |
URL | http://www.rss.org.uk/Images/PDF/influencing-change/2017/2017-09-15-History-William-Guy-Lecture.pdf |
Description | Women in maths |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | It was a talk to children year 10. Supported by the Further Maths Support Programme: |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://furthermaths.org.uk/ |