Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London (GIDA) - COVID-19
Lead Research Organisation:
Imperial College London
Department Name: UNLISTED
Abstract
Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
Technical Summary
This award is being made in recognition that key Centre staff have been redeployed from their usual work, and Centre resources utilised, to contribute to the first phase of a rapid research response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, is at the forefront of delivering timely analysis to inform policy responses to emerging infectious disease threats, and was rapidly awarded an additional £0.5m to support their real-time analysis and modelling of the SARS-CoV2 pandemic and the impact of COVID-19.
Organisations
- Imperial College London (Lead Research Organisation)
- Simon Fraser University (Collaboration)
- World Health Organization (WHO) (Collaboration)
- Healthsites.io (Collaboration)
- Facebook (Collaboration)
- Medical Research Council of Zimbabwe (Collaboration)
- Government of the UK (Collaboration)
- McGill University (Collaboration)
- UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD (Collaboration)
- University of Sussex (Collaboration)
- National Institute of Health Research (Collaboration)
- Botswana Harvard AIDS Institute Partnership (Collaboration)
- The Statens Serum Institute (SSI) (Collaboration)
- Ministry of Health and Social Welfare (Collaboration)
- Ministry of Health and Child Welfare of the Republic of Zimbabwe (Collaboration)
- International Society for Infectious Diseases (ISID) (Collaboration)
- Colorado State University (Collaboration)
- University of Ibadan (Collaboration)
- University of Toronto (Collaboration)
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center (FHCRC) (Collaboration)
- National Institutes of Health (NIH) (Collaboration)
- HealthMap (Collaboration)
- University of Bristol (Collaboration)
People |
ORCID iD |
Publications
Broadbent A
(2020)
Lockdown is not egalitarian: the costs fall on the global poor.
in Lancet (London, England)
Brooks-Pollock E
(2021)
Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK.
in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
Buitendijk S
(2020)
COVID-19: an opportunity to rethink global cooperation in higher education and research.
in BMJ global health
Buss LF
(2021)
Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic.
in Science (New York, N.Y.)
Candido DDS
(2020)
Routes for COVID-19 importation in Brazil.
in Journal of travel medicine
Candido DS
(2020)
Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil.
in Science (New York, N.Y.)
Castro-Sánchez E
(2021)
Evaluation of a personal protective equipment support programme for staff during the COVID-19 pandemic in London.
in The Journal of hospital infection
Chadeau-Hyam M
(2022)
SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccine effectiveness in England (REACT-1): a series of cross-sectional random community surveys.
in The Lancet. Respiratory medicine
| Description | Citation in multiple government documents across Europe to inform COVID-19 responses |
| Geographic Reach | Europe |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
| Impact | Papers published were used to support evidence based decision making for COVID-19 mitigation policies by multiple European countries |
| Description | Modélisations de l'évolution de la COVID-19 au Québec which direcly informed public health response- several reports have been published and picked up by the press |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
| Impact | Estimates published weekly used by local health agency to support COVID-19 response |
| URL | https://www.inspq.qc.ca/covid-19/donnees/projections |
| Description | Publication 'Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil' - Citation in three WHO Policy Documents, and by The Inter-American Development Bank. |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
| URL | https://science.altmetric.com/details/86328003/policy-documents |
| Description | UKHSA Variant Technical Group |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Advice provided by the VTG influences policy decisions regarding health provisions and non-pharmaceutical interventions for SARS-CoV-2. |
| URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefings |
| Description | WHO TAG-VE |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Advice provided by TAG-VE influences policy decisions regarding health provisions and non-pharmaceutical interventions for SARS-CoV-2. |
| URL | https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/terms-of-reference-for-the-technical-advisory-group-on-sars-... |
| Description | ISSF Global Health Clinical Research Training Fellowship |
| Amount | £87,059 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | PSM287_WPIA |
| Organisation | Wellcome Trust |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 10/2021 |
| End | 03/2023 |
| Description | Institutional Strategic Support Fund |
| Amount | £3,000,000 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | 204834/Z/16/Z |
| Organisation | Wellcome Trust |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 07/2017 |
| End | 03/2023 |
| Description | Assessing the potential impact of disruptions due to COVID-19 on HIV among key and lower-risk populations in the largest cities of Cameroon and Benin |
| Organisation | Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center (FHCRC) |
| Country | United States |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Conception Data analysis Mathematical modelling expertise Writing of paper |
| Collaborator Contribution | Writing of paper Interpretation of results and implication |
| Impact | Paper has been accepted for publication in Journal of AIDS |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Assessing the potential impact of disruptions due to COVID-19 on HIV among key and lower-risk populations in the largest cities of Cameroon and Benin |
| Organisation | National Institutes of Health (NIH) |
| Department | HIV Prevention Trials Network HPTN |
| Country | United States |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | Conception Data analysis Mathematical modelling expertise Writing of paper |
| Collaborator Contribution | Writing of paper Interpretation of results and implication |
| Impact | Paper has been accepted for publication in Journal of AIDS |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Building phylodynamic capacity in Botswana |
| Organisation | Botswana Harvard AIDS Institute Partnership |
| Country | Botswana |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | - Manon Ragonnet spent 3 months at BHP in early 2020, teaching courses in R, phylogenetics and statistics; and organising a multi-day course on Next Generation Sequencing - Manon is supervising two students based in Botswana and has been able to purchase laptops for them through a Research England GCRF grant - One additional student from Botswana has applied for funding from PANGEA (pangea-hiv.org) to spend 12 months at Imperial working with Manon - We have submitted two papers with 3/4 more in preparation |
| Collaborator Contribution | - BHP hosted Manon for 3 months at the lab in Botswana |
| Impact | - NGS course organised (https://www.santheafrica.org/sites/default/files/course-files/course_flyer_ngs_v5.pdf) - One paper submitted to The Journal of Infectious Diseases in January 2021 (published) - One paper summitted to ARHR in Nov 2021 (in review) - 2 asbtracts submitted (to HIV Dynamics + AIDS) - funding received for MSc student to do project supervised by Manon Ragonnet + Erik Volz for one year (through Oxford/PANGEA) |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Description | Building phylodynamic capacity in Botswana |
| Organisation | University of Oxford |
| Department | Big Data Institute |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | - Manon Ragonnet spent 3 months at BHP in early 2020, teaching courses in R, phylogenetics and statistics; and organising a multi-day course on Next Generation Sequencing - Manon is supervising two students based in Botswana and has been able to purchase laptops for them through a Research England GCRF grant - One additional student from Botswana has applied for funding from PANGEA (pangea-hiv.org) to spend 12 months at Imperial working with Manon - We have submitted two papers with 3/4 more in preparation |
| Collaborator Contribution | - BHP hosted Manon for 3 months at the lab in Botswana |
| Impact | - NGS course organised (https://www.santheafrica.org/sites/default/files/course-files/course_flyer_ngs_v5.pdf) - One paper submitted to The Journal of Infectious Diseases in January 2021 (published) - One paper summitted to ARHR in Nov 2021 (in review) - 2 asbtracts submitted (to HIV Dynamics + AIDS) - funding received for MSc student to do project supervised by Manon Ragonnet + Erik Volz for one year (through Oxford/PANGEA) |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Description | Collaborations with WHO Global Hepatitis Unit on viral hepatitis elimination strategies |
| Organisation | World Health Organization (WHO) |
| Country | Global |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | We have been collaborating with the WHO, both at headquarter level and at regional WPRO level on viral hepatitis strategies. Our primary work has focus on the use of applied modelling in guiding public health policy, modelling global targets for elimination, country level work in China and elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HBV. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The WHO provided the contacts and the context of the priority policy questions to be addressed. |
| Impact | Our work has been referenced in the Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis and other policy documents (see other sections of form for further details). We have been invited to national consultations in China and Malaysia on the elimination of mother to child transmission of HBV. Participants of this consultative process included academics, representatives of the health ministries and other key policy makers. |
| Start Year | 2014 |
| Description | Estimating the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions on HIV incidence and mortality among men who have sex with men in the United States: a modelling study |
| Organisation | Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center (FHCRC) |
| Country | United States |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Writing of paper for publication Conception Data analysis Mathematical modelling expertise |
| Collaborator Contribution | Writing of paper for publication Interpretation of results |
| Impact | Paper submitted for publication in Lancet:HIV |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | FACEBOOK - TO BE COMPLETED |
| Organisation | |
| Country | United States |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | Data Analysis Mathematical Modelling Expertise Data Processing |
| Collaborator Contribution | Provision of mobility data |
| Impact | Provision of data has allowed Imperial College researchers to develop high end models showing patterns of movement and social contacts. Research has been published in reports which have been used to inform national lockdown and restriction strategies. |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Government of the UK |
| Organisation | Government of the UK |
| Department | Department of Health and Social Care |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Mathematical modelling Data processing Data analysis |
| Collaborator Contribution | Data Provision |
| Impact | Confidential |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Group testing for COVID-19 |
| Organisation | Simon Fraser University |
| Country | Canada |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Conceptualisation of the project Analysis of group testing strategies Laboratory based implementation of strategies Preparation of manuscripts |
| Collaborator Contribution | Implementation of the project Analysis of group testing strategies Preparation of manuscripts |
| Impact | Manuscript under preparation |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Impact of COVID-19 on malaria control programmes (National malaria elimination programme Nigeria) |
| Organisation | National Malaria Control Programme |
| Country | Swaziland |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Justification of continuing to support malaria during COVID Mathematical modelling expertise Writing up of scientific paper |
| Collaborator Contribution | Writing up of scientific paper Data provision - district level estimates |
| Impact | Modelling highlighted the need to continue national elimination programmes. Supported the justification of continued distribution of 22 million bed nets that otherwise would not have been distributed due to COVID-19 |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Mapping the risk of international infectious disease spread |
| Organisation | HealthMap |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | Developing a mathematical model of spatial spread of infectious diseases |
| Collaborator Contribution | Providing data on Ebola UPDATE 2022 - Design and maintenance of website and input on methods |
| Impact | Talks at several conferences - Epidemics 8th edition - https://www.elsevier.com/events/conferences/international-conference-on-infectious-disease-dynamics Papers in preparation - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.26.21266899v1 UPDATE 2022 - papers published: Data Journalism and the COVID-19 Pandemic - Challenges and Opportunities The Lancet Digital Health Using digital surveillance tools for near real-time mapping of the risk of international infectious disease spread: Ebola as a case study, NPJ Digital Medicine 4, 73 |
| Start Year | 2016 |
| Description | Mapping the risk of international infectious disease spread |
| Organisation | Healthsites.io |
| Country | France |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | Developing a mathematical model of spatial spread of infectious diseases |
| Collaborator Contribution | Providing data on Ebola UPDATE 2022 - Design and maintenance of website and input on methods |
| Impact | Talks at several conferences - Epidemics 8th edition - https://www.elsevier.com/events/conferences/international-conference-on-infectious-disease-dynamics Papers in preparation - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.26.21266899v1 UPDATE 2022 - papers published: Data Journalism and the COVID-19 Pandemic - Challenges and Opportunities The Lancet Digital Health Using digital surveillance tools for near real-time mapping of the risk of international infectious disease spread: Ebola as a case study, NPJ Digital Medicine 4, 73 |
| Start Year | 2016 |
| Description | Mapping the risk of international infectious disease spread |
| Organisation | International Society for Infectious Diseases (ISID) |
| Department | Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases |
| Country | United States |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | Developing a mathematical model of spatial spread of infectious diseases |
| Collaborator Contribution | Providing data on Ebola UPDATE 2022 - Design and maintenance of website and input on methods |
| Impact | Talks at several conferences - Epidemics 8th edition - https://www.elsevier.com/events/conferences/international-conference-on-infectious-disease-dynamics Papers in preparation - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.26.21266899v1 UPDATE 2022 - papers published: Data Journalism and the COVID-19 Pandemic - Challenges and Opportunities The Lancet Digital Health Using digital surveillance tools for near real-time mapping of the risk of international infectious disease spread: Ebola as a case study, NPJ Digital Medicine 4, 73 |
| Start Year | 2016 |
| Description | Mapping the risk of international infectious disease spread |
| Organisation | University of Oxford |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Developing a mathematical model of spatial spread of infectious diseases |
| Collaborator Contribution | Providing data on Ebola UPDATE 2022 - Design and maintenance of website and input on methods |
| Impact | Talks at several conferences - Epidemics 8th edition - https://www.elsevier.com/events/conferences/international-conference-on-infectious-disease-dynamics Papers in preparation - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.26.21266899v1 UPDATE 2022 - papers published: Data Journalism and the COVID-19 Pandemic - Challenges and Opportunities The Lancet Digital Health Using digital surveillance tools for near real-time mapping of the risk of international infectious disease spread: Ebola as a case study, NPJ Digital Medicine 4, 73 |
| Start Year | 2016 |
| Description | Mapping the risk of international infectious disease spread |
| Organisation | University of Sussex |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Developing a mathematical model of spatial spread of infectious diseases |
| Collaborator Contribution | Providing data on Ebola UPDATE 2022 - Design and maintenance of website and input on methods |
| Impact | Talks at several conferences - Epidemics 8th edition - https://www.elsevier.com/events/conferences/international-conference-on-infectious-disease-dynamics Papers in preparation - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.26.21266899v1 UPDATE 2022 - papers published: Data Journalism and the COVID-19 Pandemic - Challenges and Opportunities The Lancet Digital Health Using digital surveillance tools for near real-time mapping of the risk of international infectious disease spread: Ebola as a case study, NPJ Digital Medicine 4, 73 |
| Start Year | 2016 |
| Description | Multi Province modelling on COVID-19: impact of heterogeneity and intervention |
| Organisation | McGill University |
| Country | Canada |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Modelling analysis for vaccination |
| Collaborator Contribution | Data analysis Modelling on non-pharmaceutical interventions Group discussions |
| Impact | Not yet recgonised |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Multi Province modelling on COVID-19: impact of heterogeneity and intervention |
| Organisation | Simon Fraser University |
| Country | Canada |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Modelling analysis for vaccination |
| Collaborator Contribution | Data analysis Modelling on non-pharmaceutical interventions Group discussions |
| Impact | Not yet recgonised |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Multi Province modelling on COVID-19: impact of heterogeneity and intervention |
| Organisation | University of Toronto |
| Country | Canada |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Modelling analysis for vaccination |
| Collaborator Contribution | Data analysis Modelling on non-pharmaceutical interventions Group discussions |
| Impact | Not yet recgonised |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | NPI effectiveness |
| Organisation | University of Oxford |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Senior author on project Supervision of modelling efforts and data analysis Contribution to writing and editing manuscript |
| Collaborator Contribution | Mathematical modelling expertise Data collection, provision and analysis Contribution to writing and editing of manuscript |
| Impact | Paper published in Science ' |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Omicron severity |
| Organisation | The Statens Serum Institute (SSI) |
| Country | Denmark |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Evaluation of data relating to Omicron severity |
| Collaborator Contribution | Provision of data |
| Impact | Paper under review in Lancet Infectious Disease |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | Support to COVID-19 response - Zimbabwe |
| Organisation | Medical Research Council of Zimbabwe |
| Country | Zimbabwe |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Mathematical modelling support to guide decisions regarding the COVID-19 response Technical support on COVID surveillance Questionnaire design for national SARS-Cov 2 seroprevalence survey Grant applications to Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office |
| Collaborator Contribution | Data collection and provision Secretariat support and project management Dissemination of results |
| Impact | Policy decisions made on national lockdowns and COVID control measures |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Support to COVID-19 response - Zimbabwe |
| Organisation | Ministry of Health and Child Welfare of the Republic of Zimbabwe |
| Country | Zimbabwe |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Mathematical modelling support to guide decisions regarding the COVID-19 response Technical support on COVID surveillance Questionnaire design for national SARS-Cov 2 seroprevalence survey Grant applications to Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office |
| Collaborator Contribution | Data collection and provision Secretariat support and project management Dissemination of results |
| Impact | Policy decisions made on national lockdowns and COVID control measures |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Support to COVID-19 response - Zimbabwe |
| Organisation | National Institute of Health Research |
| Country | Zimbabwe |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Mathematical modelling support to guide decisions regarding the COVID-19 response Technical support on COVID surveillance Questionnaire design for national SARS-Cov 2 seroprevalence survey Grant applications to Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office |
| Collaborator Contribution | Data collection and provision Secretariat support and project management Dissemination of results |
| Impact | Policy decisions made on national lockdowns and COVID control measures |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Support to COVID-19 response in Quebec |
| Organisation | University of Bristol |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Interpretation of results and implications Critique of results |
| Collaborator Contribution | Data analysis Writing of report Dissemination of results |
| Impact | Online reports published |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Support to COVID-19 response in Quebec |
| Organisation | World Health Organization (WHO) |
| Country | Global |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Interpretation of results and implications Critique of results |
| Collaborator Contribution | Data analysis Writing of report Dissemination of results |
| Impact | Online reports published |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Typhoid Environmental Surveillance in Nigeria |
| Organisation | University of Ibadan |
| Country | Nigeria |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Assistance with procurement Project Management Liaising with funders GIS data expertise Data analysis |
| Collaborator Contribution | Fieldwork activities GIS data expertise Provision of data |
| Impact | No outputs yet |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Use of NIRS in ivermectin clinical trial |
| Organisation | Colorado State University |
| Country | United States |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | We have been evaluating the ability of spectroscopy to detech changes in the avaerage age of the mosquito population using data collected as part of a cluster-randomised control trial of repeat ivermectin mass drug administrations for control of malaria (RIMDAMAL). |
| Collaborator Contribution | Spectroscopy data from wild caught mosquitoes |
| Impact | Analyses of data collected by medical entomologists to help explain the epidemiological impact of the intervention. |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | WHO COVID LENS Working Group |
| Organisation | World Health Organization (WHO) |
| Country | Global |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Conducting systematic reviews and meta-analyses on the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic as part of the WHO COVID LENS Working Group. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Hosted working group on neonatal, child and maternal health implications of COVID-19 |
| Impact | Journal article: Global research priorities on COVID-19 for maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health Web of Science Ahmed ASMNU, Maamri A, Falade AG, Ayede AI, Bhutta A, Gambhir A, Tagarro A, Abdelmegeid A, Ahmadi AR, Barros AJD et al. JOURNAL OF GLOBAL HEALTH 11:12 pages Article number ARTN 04071 01 Jan 2021 |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Title | universal antenatal hepatitis B screening |
| Description | To advocate for universal antenatal HBV screening to become part of national policy. Data collection completed. Current data analysis |
| Type | Management of Diseases and Conditions |
| Current Stage Of Development | Initial development |
| Year Development Stage Completed | 2021 |
| Development Status | Under active development/distribution |
| Impact | None yet |
| Title | EpiEstim |
| Description | Package for the R statistical software to estimate reproduction number during an epidemic. We created an updated version of a software we initially developed in 2013, with more flexibility in the method and a user friendly interface |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Open Source License? | Yes |
| Impact | Two papers published (Cori et al. AJE 2013, Thompson et al. Epidemics 2019). The method gained tremendous attention during the covid-19 pandemic, as it was found to be the most accurate in a review of methods to estimate Rt (Gostik et al., PLoS Comp Biol 2020). EpiEstim is being used routinely by the following national or local governmental and public health agencies worldwide to monitor their Covid-19 epidemics, who publish estimates of Rt obtained using EpiEstim on their websites on a daily or weekly basis: • National Institute of Health in France • Federal Public Service for Public Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment of Belgium • Swiss national COVID-19 Science Task force • National center for epidemiology in Spain • Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety • Quebec's national institute for public health • Public Health Ontario • Ottawa public health • Department of health of the state of New Jersey • City of St Louis, USA • Ministry of health of Bermuda • Ministry of Health of Brazil The Welsh government has estimated the impact of the firebreaker introduced in Wales in October 2020 using EpiEstim . WHO PAHO (Pan American Health Organization) has developed an interface to help country estimate the rate of transmission of COVID-19 using EpiEstim, and has included EpiEstim training as part of their early response to COVID-19 in Argentina and Barbados. EpiEstim also appears as the recommended software to estimate the reproduction number in documents produced by the World Health Organisation (WHO) • on criteria to adjust public health and social measures in the context of COVID-19 • on equitable allocation of COVID-19 health products UPDATE 2022: In 2021 EpiEstim was extended to track the transmissibility of novel variants in real time. Was used to characterise the transmissibility of Delta and Omicron variants. Paper under review - A generic method and software to estimate the transmission advantage of pathogen variants in real-time : SARS-CoV-2 as a case-study https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.26.21266899v1 |
| URL | https://github.com/jstockwin/EpiEstimApp |
| Title | Online mitigation calculator |
| Description | Calculator to estimate the effectiveness of NPIs against COVID-19 |
| Type Of Technology | Webtool/Application |
| Year Produced | 2020 |
| Open Source License? | Yes |
| Impact | Utilised several times by researchers globally to support COVID-19 research and response |
| URL | http://epidemicforecasting.org/calc |
| Title | epidemia |
| Description | Flexibly specify and fit Bayesian, regression-oriented models for infectious diseases. The implemented models define a likelihood for all observed data while also explicitly modeling transmission dynamics: an approach often termed as semi-mechanistic. Multiple regions can be modeled simultaneously with multilevel models. Key epidemiological quantities, including reproduction numbers and latent infections, may be estimated within the framework. The models may be used to evaluate the determinants of changes in transmission rates, including the effects of control measures. Epidemic dynamics may be simulated either from a fitted model or a "prior" model; allowing for prior/posterior predictive checks, experimentation, and forecasting. |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Open Source License? | Yes |
| Impact | Has been utilised by the Scottish government to inform their COVID-19 response, and by SPI-M to support evidence based decision making in regards to the COVID-19 response |
| Title | epidemia |
| Description | Software developed by Sam Bhatt and research team for COVID modelling. Scott J, Gandy A, Mishra S, Unwin J, Flaxman S, Bhatt S. epidemia. Published online July 16, 2020. |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2020 |
| Open Source License? | Yes |
| Impact | Software has been used extensively by Scottish government to model COVID-19 transmission as well as, many researchers. Modelling has been used to inform decisions regarding national lockdowns and restrictions |
| URL | https://github.com/ImperialCollegeLondon/epidemia |
| Title | scott |
| Description | This is software for the simulation of transmission chains conditional on an epidemic history and sampling regime. |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Open Source License? | Yes |
| Impact | This software is being used by partner at UCSD to investigate the expected frequency of genetic clustering of HIV-1 given prevailing sampling patterns and current incidence of infection. |
| Title | sircovid, odin, dust, mcstate, |
| Description | Dynamic transmission model of COVID-19 in the UK |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2020 |
| Open Source License? | Yes |
| Impact | We have used sircovid every week since April 2020 to provide forecasts of future COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations and deaths in the UK to SPI-M. These have been used to inform SAGE, and in turn presented as evidence to the UK government. Papers published which describe the software development, and real world applications: Reproducible parallel inference and simulation of stochastic state space models using odin, dust, and mcstate [version 2; peer review: 1 approved, 1 approved with reservations] Wellcome Open Research, 5:288 The 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England: key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions, Science Translational Medicine 13(602) Non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccination and the Delta variant: epidemiological insights from modelling England's COVID-19 roadmap out of lockdown - a mathematical modelling study The Lancet 398(10313): 1825-35 https://github.com/mrc-ide/odin https://github.com/mrc-ide/dust https://github.com/mrc-ide/mcstate |
| URL | https://mrc-ide.github.io/sircovid |
| Description | Article within the Guardian - With 21 million still unvaccinated, Britain is not out of the woods yet |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Professor Azra Ghani and Dr OJ Watson wrote an article for 'The Guardian' to discuss the impact of a large number of the population remaining unvaccinated (increase in deaths, hospitalisations, pressures on health systems). This was well received and discussed on social media regarding vaccine effectiveness, hesitancy and the UK COVID-19 response. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/25/unvaccinated-britain-vaccination-covid-hospita... |
| Description | BBC More or Less - Delta Variant |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Professor Azra Ghani spoke on BBC More or Less regarding the spread of the Delta Variant. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct2dk8 |
| Description | BBC Radio 4 - the Today show (Samir Bhatt) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Interview on BBC Radio 4 Today show regarding results published in Report 13 - Europe in Lockdown |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | CNN - At this hour media interview - Dr Sam Bhatt |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Invited guest on At this hour - Kate Bolduan to discuss Report 13 - Europe in lockdown |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | COVID-19 science in context web-series - Dr Anne Cori |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Dr Anne Cori participated in the MRC-GIDA COVID-19 science in context web-series. These have been well received on social media and have sparked requests fo further information from media, members of the public and others. These web series have been an invaluable tool for public engagement. Dr Cori participated in the following episodes of the webseries: Episode 17 26-08-21 Anne Cori Impact of schools and waning immunity Episode 13 11-06-21 Anne Cori Delta variant and third wave Episode 10 30-04-21 Anne Cori UK third wave Episode 6 02-04-21 Anne Cori Impact 1st step roadmap out of lockdown Episode 2 04-03-21 Anne Cori Brazil variant (P.1) in UK, modelling variants |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/covid-19-public-resources... |
| Description | Dialogue with ESADE, a global academic institution |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | This Dialogue provided insights and comparisons into COVID-19 pandemic response in Spanish speaking countries (Latin America and Spain) |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKddpHgf5fU&ab_channel=Esade |
| Description | Interview for Regional News in Latin America - Salud Con Lupa - Modelling for infectious diseases |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | This interview provided information about the role of mathematical modelling for controlling infectious diseases in Latin America |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://saludconlupa.com/entrevistas/pueden-decirnos-las-matematicas-como-contener-una-pandemia/ |
| Description | Interview for Royal Society of Medicine Webinar |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | I was invited to be on a panel on "Managing Local Outbreaks", as part of the RSM's COVID-19 webinar series, to discuss the managing of local outbreaks and likelihood of a second wave. The webinar was attended by 1000 health practitioners at the time, and has been watched a further 1,300 times online. My comments on the potential for a second wave were reported in the national press including the Guardian andteh Telegraph. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Dm1Hd8kFmM |
| Description | Interview for national News - El Espectador |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | This interview provided further information about mitigation and suppression strategies for COVID-19 pandemic in Latin America |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.elespectador.com/coronavirus/aplanar-la-curva-no-es-suficiente-se-proyectan-cambios-gran... |
| Description | Interviews in French media on Covid-19 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Early assessment of the threat posed by Covid-19 and current scientific knowledge on the new pathogen. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://tinyurl.com/rtlkaap |
| Description | Interviews in French media on Covid-19 (Anne Cori) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Early assessment of the threat posed by Covid-19 and current scientific knowledge on the new pathogen. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://tinyurl.com/rtlkaap |
| Description | Interviews in UK media on Covid-19 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Description of work projecting the potential impact of lockdown lifting strategies on the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://tinyurl.com/y3cbcq5v |
| Description | Interviews in UK media on Covid-19 (Anne Cori) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Description of work projecting the potential impact of lockdown lifting strategies on the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2012,2021 |
| URL | https://tinyurl.com/y3cbcq5v |
| Description | Multiple media engagement activities relating to release of report regarding Malaria/COVID |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | NTV Uganda Interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=189azUvjrh0 BBC Africa live radio interview https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w172x1gmpck7ppb Summary piece in Science https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/scientists-worried-pandemic-would-cause-malaria-deaths-soar-so-far-it-hasnt-happened Piece in the Telegraph https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/prompt-distribution-bed-nets-could-prevent-hundreds-thousands/ |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Participation in webinar use of mathematical modelling to support COVID response at University of Montreal (Marie-Claude Boily) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | Webinar at University of Montreal to outline how mathematical modelling is used to support the COVID-19 response. Questions sparked from the audience and requests for further information |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZI6VbLHr05c |
| Description | Podcast Interview - El Hilo Podcast - COVID-19 Pandemic |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | This podcast interview provided information about control, mitigation and suppression strategies for COVID-19 pandemic in Latin America. The podcast has reached about 10,000 people in Latin America |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://podtail.com/no/podcast/el-hilo/coronavirus-la-encrucijada-de-america-latina/ |
| Description | Presentation - Javeriana - El Espectador |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | This presentation provided explanations about preparedness and control strategies for COVID-19 pandemic in Latin America. It has reached more than 20,000 people . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JH7YzG-gTw&t=1s&ab_channel=ElEspectador |
| Description | Publication of articles in newspapers |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Publication in Provincial newspaper regarding the use of mathematical modelling predictions to support the government COVID response and the need for social distancing measures to combat transmission of COVID-19 and defence of use of mathematical modelling to support COVID response https://www.lesoleil.com/opinions/covid-19-pourquoi-les-mesures-deloignement-social-sont-presentement-necessaires-5ad0a3d2c381ba8d517834c93322b3c2 https://plus.lapresse.ca/screens/1c7478c0-ddee-4328-8a71-fbaa688a31eb__7C___0.html https://www.ledevoir.com/opinion/libre-opinion/580446/le-coupable-est-il-le-modele-ou-un-nouveau-virus https://theconversation.com/covid-19-voici-pourquoi-les-mesures-deloignement-social-sont-necessaires-133748 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Tom Clark, Science editor ITV news Covid: Easing of lockdown will cause resurgence but deaths projected to be lower due to vaccine uptake |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Professor Azra Ghani spoke to Tom Clark, Science editor ITV news regarding the easing of lockdown and the impact this will have on case numbers and hospitalisations. Was widely circulated within the British media. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.itv.com/news/2021-05-10/covid-easing-of-lockdown-will-cause-resurgence-but-deaths-projec... |
| Description | Webinar on Covid-19 modelling and evidence-based policy making |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | Webinar as a replacement of Short course on infectious disease modelling. I talked about methods for estimating the reproduction number and applications to COVID-19 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wv3BecZD5DU&feature=youtu.be |
| Description | Webinar on Covid-19 modelling and evidence-based policy making (Anne Cori) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | Webinar as a replacement of Short course on infectious disease modelling. Anne talked about methods for estimating the reproduction number and applications to COVID-19 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wv3BecZD5DU&feature=youtu.be |
| Description | Webinars series on 'KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE IN THE TIME OF COVID-19 USING EVIDENCE TO ADDRESS HEALTH CARE CHALLENGES IN LOW- AND MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES' |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Webinar series aimed at policy makers to address healthcare challenges - resource allocation and health technology assessment during COVID-19 pandemic Impacts not yet recognised |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://adphealth.org/hitap-webinar/ |
| Description | Workshop on 'Mathematics and statistics of genomic epidemiology' (Erik Volz) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | All videos posted online to widen access to participation |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | http://www.birs.ca/events/2020/5-day-workshops/20w5222 |