MRC/NIHR guidance on Natural Experimental Evaluations (NEEs) for researchers and End-Users

Natural experiments are observational studies where the investigator does not interfere. The researchers usually collect data to inform interventions and policies. However, these are complex studies to manage and new approaches emerge all the time and this is a major project to update the gudiance on the conduct of these evaluations for researchers and the users of the evidence such studies generate.

The applicants propose to refresh the MRC Guidance for Natural Experimental Evaluations (NEEs) to cover the design and planning NEEs (including horizon scanning for NEE opportunities, assessing the viability and value of a potential NEE, including methods for theorising intervention effects, evaluability assessment, etc.). Guidance will include novel quantitative NEE methods (e.g. synthetic controls, ‘multiverse’ and related approaches), economic evaluation methods applied to NEEs; and mixed methods (e.g. NEEs involving qualitative methods or systems thinking/science approaches, such as systems mapping or simulation modelling), Throughout, we shall illustrate the guidance with detailed, worked examples and provide a range of tools to support its use with a focus on policy makers and researchers as the key audience