Evidence Synthesis to inform health related decision making

Lead Research Organisation: MRC Biostatistics Unit

Abstract

In order to make decisions about management of diseases it is necessary to understand how diseases develop and spread and how interventions will impact on them. This often requires us to identify and combine many sources of information so that we can take robust decisions relevant to the clinical or public health context of interest. For example, when the objective is to control an infectious disease in the community we need to know how many people are affected by the disease (prevalence) and in which age groups; how it is currently spreading (incidence); how it is transmitted (transmission and infectivity); and the geographical location where the disease is more prevalent. This information will feed into relevant interventions, such as vaccination or treatment. This would require understanding to which subgroups of the population vaccination should be given first, or for which patients is a particular treatment cost-effective.
Data on each of these aspects will typically come from several studies, possibly with different formats and not directly interpretable. Robust statistical methods are then needed to integrate such multiplicity of evidence in a coherent manner to make it useful input for decision making.

Technical Summary

Decisions regarding health policy are being increasingly informed by the synthesis of evidence from multiple sources.
Often available evidence comes from a multitude of heterogeneous sources or studies, may be incomplete, biased, refers to populations different from those of interest, and/or is sparse. Robust statistical methods and epidemiological understanding are then needed to integrate such a patchwork of evidence in a coherent manner to make it useful for decision making. Approaches to such syntheses range from meta-analysis through generalised evidence to decision theoretic methods required for advising on health policies.
Our work focuses on developing and statistical methodology to design, fit and evaluate complex models for evidence synthesis.
Outstanding methodological challenges include statistical standard setting for inclusion of data sources, model development and criticism, including handling of heterogeneity and biases, detecting, quantifying and resolving possible inconsistency between sources and development of appropriate and accessible computational approaches.
Further, the abundance of emerging data sources available, as a result of investment in e-health, means that it is more important than ever to apply rigorous scientific principles to develop models which have a sound and relevant evidence base. In addition, as new types of biomedical information, such as genetic and genomic data, become available, its integration into existing evidence synthesis frameworks will become increasingly important.
Our work is inspired by, and applied to, substantive problems in medical research with particular emphasis on infectious diseases, addictions and evaluation of public health interventions.

Organisations

Publications

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Aghaizu A (2014) Recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) applied to new HIV diagnoses in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, 2009 to 2011. in Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

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Benaglia T (2015) Survival extrapolation in the presence of cause specific hazards. in Statistics in medicine

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Birrell PJ (2011) Bayesian modeling to unmask and predict influenza A/H1N1pdm dynamics in London. in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

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Birrell PJ (2017) Real-time modelling of a pandemic influenza outbreak. in Health technology assessment (Winchester, England)

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Bowden J (2016) Weighing Evidence "Steampunk" Style via the Meta-Analyser. in The American statistician

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Copas Andrew (2008) Discussion on the paper by Goubar, Ades, De Angelis, McGarrigle, Mercer, Tookey, Fenton and Gill in JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY

 
Description Adviser to Center for Disease Control on HIV
Geographic Reach North America 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a national consultation
Impact I participated in a consultation on methods for estimating HIV incidence in the USA. Robust estimates of the number of new HIV infections are crucial to the design and evaluation of interventions aimed at reducing HIV transmission.
 
Description Adviser to WHO HIV modelling in Europe Group
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Adviser to WHO HIV modelling in Europe Group
 
Description Chair of the modelling subgroup of the Advisory Council for the Misuse of Drugs working group
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in advisory committee
 
Description Citation in House of Lords Select Commitee
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Work is cited both in the Written and Oral Evidence presented by the Health Protection Agency in the House of Lords Select Committee on HIV and AIDS in the United Kingdom report entitled "No vaccine, no cure: HIV and AIDS in the United Kingdom" which can be accessed here http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/hiv-select-committee/publications/ The references are given formally in the Oral with associated written evidence (http://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-committees/hivaids/HIVAIDSUKev.pdf) but our work is referenced informally (as the MPES method or via the HPA's report "HIV in the United Kingdom (2010 Report)") also in the Select Committee's 1st Report (http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201012/ldselect/ldaids/188/188.pdf)
URL http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/hiv-select-committee/public...
 
Description Citation in the SaBTO report from the DoH Blood Donor Selection Steering Group
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact The work on the blood donor selection criteria review is referenced in https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/donor-selection-criteria-review http://www.dh.gov.uk/prod_consum_dh/groups/dh_digitalassets/documents/digitalasset/dh_129909.pdf In the SaBTO report, the work is referenced as Davison et al, in press, but this work has now been published here: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1423-0410.2011.01491.x/abstract The work resulted in a change in the recommendation made by SABTO on the current donor deferral period for men who have sex with men.
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/donor-selection-criteria-review
 
Description Department of Health Scientific Pandemic Influenza Advisory Committee, subgroup on Modelling (SPIM-O)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in advisory committee
Impact Member of SPI-M (O) SPI-M(O) advices the Department of Health on methods of data analysis in the preparedness for and during an emerging epidemic. The goal is to reduce the impact of an epidemic.
 
Description HCV prevalence estimates, 2007 - present
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact New methods for HCV prevalence estimates ; Recognition for the MRC and the unit ; First robust quantification of HCV burden. Annual reports produced: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/477702/HIV_in_the_UK_2015_report.pdf https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/337115/HCV_in_the_UK_2014_24_July.pdf http://www.hpa.org.uk/webw/HPAweb&HPAwebStandard/HPAweb_C/1317135237627 http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/BloodBorneInfections/1107HepCintheUK2011report/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/BloodBorneInfections/0912HepatitisC/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/BloodBorneInfections/0812HepatitisC/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/BloodBorneInfections/0712HepatitisCannualreport/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/BloodBorneInfections/0612HepatitisCinEnglandAnupdate2006/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/BloodBorneInfections/0512HepatitisCAnnualReport2005/
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hepatitis-c-in-the-uk
 
Description HIV prevalence estimates
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact New methods for HIV prevalence estimates; Recognition for the MRC and the Unit; Estimates contribute to HIV testing policy in the UK; In 2011, estimates contributed to the House of Lords Select Committee on HIV/AIDS (http://www.parliament.uk/HIVSELECT). 9 annual reports 2005-present produced: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hiv-in-the-united-kingdom http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/1211HIVintheUK2012/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/1111HIVintheUK2011report/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/1011HIVUK2010Report/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0911HIVUK2009Report/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0811hivUK/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0711TestingTimesHIVandSTIsReport/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0611ComplexPictureUKHIVSTI/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0511MappingHIVandSTIinUK2005/
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hiv-in-the-united-kingdom
 
Description HIV prevalence estimation Stakeholder Meeting
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact A stakeholder meeting was held to describe in a lay manner the methods behind estimation of HIV prevalence in the UK to key stakeholders, including epidemiologists, local HIV service commissioners, policy makers, HIV patients and patient organisations, HIV NGOs such as the Terrance Higgins Trust, the National Aids Trust and others. Interaction with these stakeholders led to both better understanding of the methods we use and to us learning about key needs for further developments of our work in this area.
 
Description Member of Deparment of Health Influenza Steering Group
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guidance committee
Impact Member of the DoH Influenza steering group that will provide advice on the development and implentation of pandemic surveillance work and provide support for the surveillance elements of preparations for a future pandemic
 
Description Member of Health Protection Agency board on Hepatitis
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guidance committee
 
Description Member of NICE Programme development group -HBV and HCV testing in at-risk groups
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guidance committee
Impact Participation to this committee has increased awareness amongst professionals on the need to encourage at risk populations (e.g. injecting drug users) to test for hepatitis.
 
Description Member of NICE Public Health Advisory Committee
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in advisory committee
 
Description Member of Scottish Healthcare Associated Infection Preventive Institute (SHAIPI) International Advisory Group
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
URL http://www.gla.ac.uk/researchinstitutes/iii/research/researchcentres/sirn/shaipi/welcometoshaipi/gov...
 
Description Member of the National HIV incidence and resistance advisory group
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in advisory committee
Impact Member of the National HIV incidence and resistance advisory group.
 
Description Participation in "Halve It Halfway to World AIDS Day" meeting
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact Invitation to participate in the Halve It campaign's "Halfway to World AIDS Day" meeting at the House of Commons. Our work to estimate HIV prevalence was presented by a PHE colleague to the meeting, and resulted in discussion/questions about our methods and the impact of our work on HIV in the UK.
URL http://www.halveit.org.uk/resources/Halve%20It%20Halfway%20to%20WAD%202016%20invite%20.pdf
 
Description Public Health England Annual Report on HIV - Situation Report: Incidence, prevalence and prevention
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/477702/HIV_in_the_UK_2015_...
 
Description Talk at an ECDC meeting on improving HIV prevalence estimation in Europe
Geographic Reach Asia 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
URL http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/activities/diseaseprogrammes/hash/Pages/Projects.aspx
 
Description WHO Influenza Pandemic mortality consultation group
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in advisory committee
Impact International collaboration on estimating global pandemic H1N1/2009 mortality to influence future policy for pandemic preparedness. Resulted in co-authorship on publication DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(12)70121-4
URL http://www.who.int/influenza/surveillance_monitoring/updates/MortalityEstimates/en/
 
Description WHO, HIV incidence assay working group
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in advisory committee
Impact Contribution towards new methods of estimation of HIV incidence based on Seroconversion assays - Robust estimation of HIV incidence and identification of recent infection at the individual level, are crucial to design and evaluate interventions to reduce HIV transmission, with an obvious consequence on quality of life.
 
Description Health protection Scotland
Amount £50,000 (GBP)
Organisation NHS National Services Scotland (NSS) 
Department Health Protection Scotland
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2013 
End 03/2015
 
Description MRC BSU Early Career Centenary Award-Presanis
Amount £6,000 (GBP)
Organisation University of Cambridge 
Department MRC Biostatistics Unit
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 12/2012 
End 04/2013
 
Description MRC Methodology Research Panel
Amount £112,723 (GBP)
Organisation Medical Research Council (MRC) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 10/2007 
End 09/2010
 
Description NIHR
Amount £9,917 (GBP)
Organisation National Institute for Health Research 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 10/2012 
End 09/2013
 
Description NIHR
Amount £200,000 (GBP)
Organisation National Institute for Health Research 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 10/2012 
End 09/2015
 
Description NIHR HPRU
Amount £350,000 (GBP)
Organisation National Institute for Health Research 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description Open contract with MRC for a team member
Amount £100,000 (GBP)
Organisation Medical Research Council (MRC) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 10/2010 
 
Description Public Health England DDA salary support
Amount £235,000 (GBP)
Organisation Public Health England 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2016 
End 03/2021
 
Description Public Health England Studentship
Amount £48,000 (GBP)
Organisation Public Health England 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 10/2013 
End 09/2016
 
Description Public Health England Studentship
Amount £78,000 (GBP)
Organisation Public Health England 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2016 
End 03/2019
 
Description Research Collaboration - contribution to staff costs
Amount £150,000 (GBP)
Organisation Public Health England 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2011 
End 03/2016
 
Description University of the West of Scotland
Amount £50,443 (GBP)
Organisation University of the West of Scotland 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 05/2011 
End 04/2013
 
Description York- HEE grant- Jackson
Amount £15,938 (GBP)
Organisation Medical Research Council (MRC) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 11/2016 
End 10/2018
 
Title MPES 
Description Statistical methods to synthesise information on disease prevalence from multiple sources, e.g. for HIV and HCV. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Approach and software used by other researchers and public health agencies (UK and Europe). 
URL https://www.gov.uk/hiv-overall-prevalence
 
Title Methods for disease prevalence and incidence estimation 
Description Development of methods for disease prevalence and incidence estimation, e.g. for HIV, HCV and influenza. Methods include evidence synthesis, back-calculation and transmission modelling (see software section). 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2009 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Strengthening collaboration with recognised organisations, such as WHO; ECDC; UNAIDS; Harvard School of Public Health. 
 
Description BUPA 
Organisation BUPA
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution Better understanding of progression of natural history hepatitis C and the role of antiviral treatment in the prevention of disease progression
Impact 18086181; 19331708
 
Description Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation HIV Modelling Consortium 
Organisation University of Stellenbosch
Department South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis
Country South Africa 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Statistical analysis and expertise in modelling early HIV infection.
Collaborator Contribution Providing simulated data, epidemiological and mathematical expertise and benchmarking other methods. Provided funds to allow me to attend workshops for the consortium in Boston and Rome 2012-2013.
Impact Paper in preparation. Multi-disciplinary - statisticians, mathematicians and epidemiologists.
Start Year 2012
 
Description Bristol/ Thom and Jackson 
Organisation University of Bristol
Department School of Cellular and Molecular Medicine
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution TBC
Collaborator Contribution TBC
Impact None as yet
Start Year 2016
 
Description CDC Atlanta HIV Incidence Consultation Group 
Organisation Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Department National Center for HIV/AIDS
Country United States 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Participation in series of web seminars, provided advice on statistical methods.
Collaborator Contribution Organisation of series of web seminars.
Impact Not yet. Multi-disciplinary collaboration - statisticians, mathematicians, epidemiologists.
Start Year 2013
 
Description CDC Global HIV/AIDS/TB Key Populations Group 
Organisation Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Country United States 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Statistical consultancy and dissemination of our evidence synthesis methods to CDC partners, leading to a new collaboration to apply these methods to the estimation of key population sizes and HIV prevalence in different countries around the world that CDC work with. Advice on the adoption of our methods to different countries/contexts/populations.
Collaborator Contribution Introduction to CDC's country-specific partners who may want to adopt our methods for the estimation of key population sizes and HIV prevalence in their countries, provision of data.
Impact Not yet. Multi-disciplinary collaboration - statistical advice provided by us, to epidemiologists and statistical epidemiologists working at CDC and at public health institutes in different countries that CDC work with.
Start Year 2016
 
Description Dutch National Institute of Public Health (RIVM)/University of Utrecht 
Organisation National Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM)
Country Netherlands 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Collaborators in a grant application and related research activities - we contribute statistical inference knowledge.
Collaborator Contribution Knowledge on mathematical modelling of infectious disease methods
Impact The collaboration involves statisticians, mathematical modellers and infectious disease epidemiologists
Start Year 2013
 
Description Dutch National Institute of Public Health (RIVM)/University of Utrecht 
Organisation University Medical Center Utrecht (UMC)
Country Netherlands 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Collaborators in a grant application and related research activities - we contribute statistical inference knowledge.
Collaborator Contribution Knowledge on mathematical modelling of infectious disease methods
Impact The collaboration involves statisticians, mathematical modellers and infectious disease epidemiologists
Start Year 2013
 
Description ECDC HIV prevalence EU project 
Organisation European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)
Country European Union (EU) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Providing statistical expertise on the project "Improving tools to estimate HIV prevalence in EU/EEA countries".
Collaborator Contribution Consortium of experts on methods to estimate HIV prevalence.
Impact Reports provided to participating countries in pilot study. Reports provided to ECDC. Multi-disciplinary - statisticians, mathematical modellers, epidemiologists.
Start Year 2012
 
Description ECDC HIV prevalence EU project 
Organisation HIV Monitoring Foundation (SHM)
Country Netherlands 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution Providing statistical expertise on the project "Improving tools to estimate HIV prevalence in EU/EEA countries".
Collaborator Contribution Consortium of experts on methods to estimate HIV prevalence.
Impact Reports provided to participating countries in pilot study. Reports provided to ECDC. Multi-disciplinary - statisticians, mathematical modellers, epidemiologists.
Start Year 2012
 
Description ECDC HIV prevalence EU project 
Organisation Imperial College London
Department Department of Infectious Disease & Epidemiology
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Providing statistical expertise on the project "Improving tools to estimate HIV prevalence in EU/EEA countries".
Collaborator Contribution Consortium of experts on methods to estimate HIV prevalence.
Impact Reports provided to participating countries in pilot study. Reports provided to ECDC. Multi-disciplinary - statisticians, mathematical modellers, epidemiologists.
Start Year 2012
 
Description ECDC HIV prevalence EU project 
Organisation University College London
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Providing statistical expertise on the project "Improving tools to estimate HIV prevalence in EU/EEA countries".
Collaborator Contribution Consortium of experts on methods to estimate HIV prevalence.
Impact Reports provided to participating countries in pilot study. Reports provided to ECDC. Multi-disciplinary - statisticians, mathematical modellers, epidemiologists.
Start Year 2012
 
Description ECDC HIV prevalence EU project 
Organisation University of Bern
Country Switzerland 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Providing statistical expertise on the project "Improving tools to estimate HIV prevalence in EU/EEA countries".
Collaborator Contribution Consortium of experts on methods to estimate HIV prevalence.
Impact Reports provided to participating countries in pilot study. Reports provided to ECDC. Multi-disciplinary - statisticians, mathematical modellers, epidemiologists.
Start Year 2012
 
Description HPRU (Bristol, UCL, University of the West of England) 
Organisation Public Health England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Contribute technical expertise (statistical ) to methods for evaluation of interventions. Linked to Public Health England
Collaborator Contribution Mathematical modelling techniques - epidemiological /social science knowledge
Impact No outputs yet. Still recruiting.
Start Year 2014
 
Description HPRU (Bristol, UCL, University of the West of England) 
Organisation University College London
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Contribute technical expertise (statistical ) to methods for evaluation of interventions. Linked to Public Health England
Collaborator Contribution Mathematical modelling techniques - epidemiological /social science knowledge
Impact No outputs yet. Still recruiting.
Start Year 2014
 
Description HPRU (Bristol, UCL, University of the West of England) 
Organisation University of Bristol
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Contribute technical expertise (statistical ) to methods for evaluation of interventions. Linked to Public Health England
Collaborator Contribution Mathematical modelling techniques - epidemiological /social science knowledge
Impact No outputs yet. Still recruiting.
Start Year 2014
 
Description HPRU (Bristol, UCL, University of the West of England) 
Organisation University of the West of England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Contribute technical expertise (statistical ) to methods for evaluation of interventions. Linked to Public Health England
Collaborator Contribution Mathematical modelling techniques - epidemiological /social science knowledge
Impact No outputs yet. Still recruiting.
Start Year 2014
 
Description Harvard University/CDC/NIH 
Organisation Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Country United States 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Scientific collaboration.
Collaborator Contribution Scientific collaboration and data provision. Epidemiological expertise and data provision. Hosted a member of my team for two months, funded by MRC Centenary Award.
Impact PMID: 19997612; 21612363 Talk at Epidemics conference 2009. Poster at Epidemics conference 2013. Paper in preparation.
Start Year 2009
 
Description Harvard University/CDC/NIH 
Organisation Fogarty International Centre
Department Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies (DIEPS)
Country United States 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Scientific collaboration.
Collaborator Contribution Scientific collaboration and data provision. Epidemiological expertise and data provision. Hosted a member of my team for two months, funded by MRC Centenary Award.
Impact PMID: 19997612; 21612363 Talk at Epidemics conference 2009. Poster at Epidemics conference 2013. Paper in preparation.
Start Year 2009
 
Description Harvard University/CDC/NIH 
Organisation Harvard University
Department Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Scientific collaboration.
Collaborator Contribution Scientific collaboration and data provision. Epidemiological expertise and data provision. Hosted a member of my team for two months, funded by MRC Centenary Award.
Impact PMID: 19997612; 21612363 Talk at Epidemics conference 2009. Poster at Epidemics conference 2013. Paper in preparation.
Start Year 2009
 
Description Health Protection Agency 
Organisation Public Health England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Development/ application of statistical methods to enable a better understanding of the HIV epidemic in the UK.
Collaborator Contribution Data provision and epidemiological expertise
Impact Many scientific publications. One PhD thesis completed. Reports: - Health Protection Agency, HIV in the United Kingdom: 2009 Report, London, United Kingdom, November 2009. Available from: http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0911HIVUK2009Report/ (De Angelis D, Presanis AM, contributors). - Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections HIV, HIV in the United Kingdom: 2008 report, London, United Kingdom, November 2008. Available from: http://www.hpa.org.uk/hivuk2008 (De Angelis D, Presanis A, contributors).
Start Year 2007
 
Description Health Protection Agency -Influenza 
Organisation Public Health England
Department Centre of Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Statistical analysis and consultation Publication
Collaborator Contribution Data provision and statistical expertise
Impact PMIDs: 22042838; 21903689; 21087539, doi:10.1214/14-AOAS775 Papers under submission: Birrell PJ, Zhang X-S, Pebody RG, Gay NJ, De Angelis D. Reconstructing a spatially heterogeneous epidemic: Characterising the geographic spread of 2009 A/H1N1 infection in England (Scientific Reports) Birrell PJ, De Angelis D, Wernisch L, Tom BDM, Roberts GO, Pebody RG. Efficient real-time monitoring of an emerging influenza epidemic: how feasible? (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series C))
Start Year 2009
 
Description Health Protection Agency -Influenza 
Organisation Royal College of General Practitioners
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Statistical analysis and consultation Publication
Collaborator Contribution Data provision and statistical expertise
Impact PMIDs: 22042838; 21903689; 21087539, doi:10.1214/14-AOAS775 Papers under submission: Birrell PJ, Zhang X-S, Pebody RG, Gay NJ, De Angelis D. Reconstructing a spatially heterogeneous epidemic: Characterising the geographic spread of 2009 A/H1N1 infection in England (Scientific Reports) Birrell PJ, De Angelis D, Wernisch L, Tom BDM, Roberts GO, Pebody RG. Efficient real-time monitoring of an emerging influenza epidemic: how feasible? (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series C))
Start Year 2009
 
Description Health Protection Agency UK-HIV 
Organisation Public Health England
Department Centre of Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Statistical expertise. Publications and reports.
Collaborator Contribution Data provision and statistical expertise
Impact PMID: 21087539; 21525422; 21422986; 20962617; 19081004; 22039196; 21932033 Reports: The UK Collaborative Group for HIV and STI surveillance. 2005. Mapping the issues. HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in the United Kingdom:2005 The UK Collaborative Group for HIV and STI surveillance. 2006. A Complex picture. HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in the United Kingdom:2006 The UK Collaborative Group for HIV and STI surveillance. 2007. Testing times. HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in the United Kingdom:2007 Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. HIV in the United Kingdom: 2008 report (www.hpa.org.uk/hivuk2008) Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. HIV in the United Kingdom: 2009 report (www.hpa.org.uk/hivuk2009) Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. HIV in the United Kingdom: 2010 report (www.hpa.org.uk/hivuk2010)
 
Description Health Protection Agency- HCV 
Organisation Public Health England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Statistical analysis and consultation Publications and reports
Collaborator Contribution Statistical input and data provision
Impact PMIDs: 21875456; 21708792; 19546152; 19036917; 19036912 Reports: Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. 2005. Hepatitis C in England; the first Health Protection Agency Annual Report. 2005 Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. 2006. Hepatitis C in England; an update. 2006 Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. 2007. Hepatitis C in England; an update. 2007 Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. 2008. Hepatitis C in the UK 2008 Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. 2009. Hepatitis C in the UK 2009 Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. 2011. Hepatitis C in the UK 2011
 
Description Health Protection Scotland 
Organisation NHS National Services Scotland (NSS)
Department Health Protection Scotland
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Statistical expertise on evidence synthesis
Collaborator Contribution Epidemiological expertise
Impact Paper in preparation on estimating HCV prevalence amongst IDUs in Scotland. Renewed funding for the project for 2013-2015.
Start Year 2010
 
Description Health Protection Scotland 
Organisation University of the West of Scotland
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Statistical expertise on evidence synthesis
Collaborator Contribution Epidemiological expertise
Impact Paper in preparation on estimating HCV prevalence amongst IDUs in Scotland. Renewed funding for the project for 2013-2015.
Start Year 2010
 
Description IARC - Martyn Plummer 
Organisation International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC)
Country France 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Providing applications which motivate development of further modules in the software JAGS.
Collaborator Contribution Development of a module in the software JAGS to combine one of DDA's PhD student's C++ code with JAGS.
Impact None yet, software module still under development. Joint publications in progress.
Start Year 2014
 
Description Institute Pasteur/PHE respiratory virus and secondary bacterial infection collaboration 
Organisation Pasteur Institute, Paris
Department Laboratory of Pharmacoepidemiology and Infectious Diseases
Country France 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution Statistical expertise on evidence synthesis and time series modelling.
Collaborator Contribution Provision of data, epidemiological expertise.
Impact Not yet. Multidisciplinary collaboration, comprising statisticians, mathematical modellers and epidemiologists.
Start Year 2017
 
Description Institute Pasteur/PHE respiratory virus and secondary bacterial infection collaboration 
Organisation Public Health England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Statistical expertise on evidence synthesis and time series modelling.
Collaborator Contribution Provision of data, epidemiological expertise.
Impact Not yet. Multidisciplinary collaboration, comprising statisticians, mathematical modellers and epidemiologists.
Start Year 2017
 
Description Istituto Superiore di Sanita, Italy 
Organisation National Institute of Health
Country Italy 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Statistical expertise
Collaborator Contribution Data provision. Testing facilities.
Impact PMID:21170913
Start Year 2008
 
Description Istituto Superiore di Sanita, Italy 
Organisation Public Health England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Statistical expertise
Collaborator Contribution Data provision. Testing facilities.
Impact PMID:21170913
Start Year 2008
 
Description London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine 
Organisation London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)
Department Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Statistical expertise
Collaborator Contribution Epidemic modelling expertise
Impact PhD studentship
Start Year 2009
 
Description London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine 
Organisation Public Health England
Department Centre of Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Statistical expertise
Collaborator Contribution Epidemic modelling expertise
Impact PhD studentship
Start Year 2009
 
Description NATSAL 
Organisation National Centre for Social Research
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Statistical modelling and expertise.
Collaborator Contribution Provision of data to contribute to evidence syntheses to estimate prevalence of HIV and HCV.
Impact HIV and HCV annual reports from Public Health England.
 
Description NATSAL 
Organisation University College London
Department School of Life and Medical Sciences
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Statistical modelling and expertise.
Collaborator Contribution Provision of data to contribute to evidence syntheses to estimate prevalence of HIV and HCV.
Impact HIV and HCV annual reports from Public Health England.
 
Description NIQUAD 
Organisation Information Services Division (ISD)
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution De Angelis and Bird co-grant holders for NIQUAD whose objective is to enable key public health questions about addiction to be addressed by: - Improving, integrating, and harmonising the information base - Assessing the quality, precision, validity and consistency of available information - Making data accessible to a wider range of expertise - Developing methods to better exploit existing and new information sources This requires parallel work on developing micro (record linkage) and macro (evidence synthesis) integration of available information. The former strand will integrate administrative and research data at the individual case level to create statistically powerful 'virtual' cohorts that track pathways in and out of treatment, criminal justice, and healthcare, sequencing key events. Evidence synthesis will develop models that link all the available evidence to link and test its consistency and to examine the relationships between parameters.
Collaborator Contribution Intellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionPractical collaborationPractical collaborationIntellectual/ Practical contribution
Impact Several publications in press and in preparation
Start Year 2010
 
Description NIQUAD 
Organisation King's College London
Department Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution De Angelis and Bird co-grant holders for NIQUAD whose objective is to enable key public health questions about addiction to be addressed by: - Improving, integrating, and harmonising the information base - Assessing the quality, precision, validity and consistency of available information - Making data accessible to a wider range of expertise - Developing methods to better exploit existing and new information sources This requires parallel work on developing micro (record linkage) and macro (evidence synthesis) integration of available information. The former strand will integrate administrative and research data at the individual case level to create statistically powerful 'virtual' cohorts that track pathways in and out of treatment, criminal justice, and healthcare, sequencing key events. Evidence synthesis will develop models that link all the available evidence to link and test its consistency and to examine the relationships between parameters.
Collaborator Contribution Intellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionPractical collaborationPractical collaborationIntellectual/ Practical contribution
Impact Several publications in press and in preparation
Start Year 2010
 
Description NIQUAD 
Organisation Ministry of Justice
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution De Angelis and Bird co-grant holders for NIQUAD whose objective is to enable key public health questions about addiction to be addressed by: - Improving, integrating, and harmonising the information base - Assessing the quality, precision, validity and consistency of available information - Making data accessible to a wider range of expertise - Developing methods to better exploit existing and new information sources This requires parallel work on developing micro (record linkage) and macro (evidence synthesis) integration of available information. The former strand will integrate administrative and research data at the individual case level to create statistically powerful 'virtual' cohorts that track pathways in and out of treatment, criminal justice, and healthcare, sequencing key events. Evidence synthesis will develop models that link all the available evidence to link and test its consistency and to examine the relationships between parameters.
Collaborator Contribution Intellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionPractical collaborationPractical collaborationIntellectual/ Practical contribution
Impact Several publications in press and in preparation
Start Year 2010
 
Description NIQUAD 
Organisation NHS National Services Scotland (NSS)
Department Health Protection Scotland
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution De Angelis and Bird co-grant holders for NIQUAD whose objective is to enable key public health questions about addiction to be addressed by: - Improving, integrating, and harmonising the information base - Assessing the quality, precision, validity and consistency of available information - Making data accessible to a wider range of expertise - Developing methods to better exploit existing and new information sources This requires parallel work on developing micro (record linkage) and macro (evidence synthesis) integration of available information. The former strand will integrate administrative and research data at the individual case level to create statistically powerful 'virtual' cohorts that track pathways in and out of treatment, criminal justice, and healthcare, sequencing key events. Evidence synthesis will develop models that link all the available evidence to link and test its consistency and to examine the relationships between parameters.
Collaborator Contribution Intellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionPractical collaborationPractical collaborationIntellectual/ Practical contribution
Impact Several publications in press and in preparation
Start Year 2010
 
Description NIQUAD 
Organisation Public Health England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution De Angelis and Bird co-grant holders for NIQUAD whose objective is to enable key public health questions about addiction to be addressed by: - Improving, integrating, and harmonising the information base - Assessing the quality, precision, validity and consistency of available information - Making data accessible to a wider range of expertise - Developing methods to better exploit existing and new information sources This requires parallel work on developing micro (record linkage) and macro (evidence synthesis) integration of available information. The former strand will integrate administrative and research data at the individual case level to create statistically powerful 'virtual' cohorts that track pathways in and out of treatment, criminal justice, and healthcare, sequencing key events. Evidence synthesis will develop models that link all the available evidence to link and test its consistency and to examine the relationships between parameters.
Collaborator Contribution Intellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionPractical collaborationPractical collaborationIntellectual/ Practical contribution
Impact Several publications in press and in preparation
Start Year 2010
 
Description NIQUAD 
Organisation University of Bristol
Department School of Social and Community Medicine
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution De Angelis and Bird co-grant holders for NIQUAD whose objective is to enable key public health questions about addiction to be addressed by: - Improving, integrating, and harmonising the information base - Assessing the quality, precision, validity and consistency of available information - Making data accessible to a wider range of expertise - Developing methods to better exploit existing and new information sources This requires parallel work on developing micro (record linkage) and macro (evidence synthesis) integration of available information. The former strand will integrate administrative and research data at the individual case level to create statistically powerful 'virtual' cohorts that track pathways in and out of treatment, criminal justice, and healthcare, sequencing key events. Evidence synthesis will develop models that link all the available evidence to link and test its consistency and to examine the relationships between parameters.
Collaborator Contribution Intellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionPractical collaborationPractical collaborationIntellectual/ Practical contribution
Impact Several publications in press and in preparation
Start Year 2010
 
Description NIQUAD 
Organisation University of Glasgow
Department School of Social and Political Sciences Glasgow
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution De Angelis and Bird co-grant holders for NIQUAD whose objective is to enable key public health questions about addiction to be addressed by: - Improving, integrating, and harmonising the information base - Assessing the quality, precision, validity and consistency of available information - Making data accessible to a wider range of expertise - Developing methods to better exploit existing and new information sources This requires parallel work on developing micro (record linkage) and macro (evidence synthesis) integration of available information. The former strand will integrate administrative and research data at the individual case level to create statistically powerful 'virtual' cohorts that track pathways in and out of treatment, criminal justice, and healthcare, sequencing key events. Evidence synthesis will develop models that link all the available evidence to link and test its consistency and to examine the relationships between parameters.
Collaborator Contribution Intellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionPractical collaborationPractical collaborationIntellectual/ Practical contribution
Impact Several publications in press and in preparation
Start Year 2010
 
Description NIQUAD 
Organisation University of Manchester
Department Community-Based Medicine
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution De Angelis and Bird co-grant holders for NIQUAD whose objective is to enable key public health questions about addiction to be addressed by: - Improving, integrating, and harmonising the information base - Assessing the quality, precision, validity and consistency of available information - Making data accessible to a wider range of expertise - Developing methods to better exploit existing and new information sources This requires parallel work on developing micro (record linkage) and macro (evidence synthesis) integration of available information. The former strand will integrate administrative and research data at the individual case level to create statistically powerful 'virtual' cohorts that track pathways in and out of treatment, criminal justice, and healthcare, sequencing key events. Evidence synthesis will develop models that link all the available evidence to link and test its consistency and to examine the relationships between parameters.
Collaborator Contribution Intellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionPractical collaborationPractical collaborationIntellectual/ Practical contribution
Impact Several publications in press and in preparation
Start Year 2010
 
Description NIQUAD 
Organisation University of St Andrews
Department School of Mathematics and Statistics
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution De Angelis and Bird co-grant holders for NIQUAD whose objective is to enable key public health questions about addiction to be addressed by: - Improving, integrating, and harmonising the information base - Assessing the quality, precision, validity and consistency of available information - Making data accessible to a wider range of expertise - Developing methods to better exploit existing and new information sources This requires parallel work on developing micro (record linkage) and macro (evidence synthesis) integration of available information. The former strand will integrate administrative and research data at the individual case level to create statistically powerful 'virtual' cohorts that track pathways in and out of treatment, criminal justice, and healthcare, sequencing key events. Evidence synthesis will develop models that link all the available evidence to link and test its consistency and to examine the relationships between parameters.
Collaborator Contribution Intellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionPractical collaborationPractical collaborationIntellectual/ Practical contribution
Impact Several publications in press and in preparation
Start Year 2010
 
Description NIQUAD 
Organisation University of Strathclyde
Department Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution De Angelis and Bird co-grant holders for NIQUAD whose objective is to enable key public health questions about addiction to be addressed by: - Improving, integrating, and harmonising the information base - Assessing the quality, precision, validity and consistency of available information - Making data accessible to a wider range of expertise - Developing methods to better exploit existing and new information sources This requires parallel work on developing micro (record linkage) and macro (evidence synthesis) integration of available information. The former strand will integrate administrative and research data at the individual case level to create statistically powerful 'virtual' cohorts that track pathways in and out of treatment, criminal justice, and healthcare, sequencing key events. Evidence synthesis will develop models that link all the available evidence to link and test its consistency and to examine the relationships between parameters.
Collaborator Contribution Intellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionPractical collaborationPractical collaborationIntellectual/ Practical contribution
Impact Several publications in press and in preparation
Start Year 2010
 
Description NIQUAD 
Organisation University of York
Department Department of Health Sciences
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution De Angelis and Bird co-grant holders for NIQUAD whose objective is to enable key public health questions about addiction to be addressed by: - Improving, integrating, and harmonising the information base - Assessing the quality, precision, validity and consistency of available information - Making data accessible to a wider range of expertise - Developing methods to better exploit existing and new information sources This requires parallel work on developing micro (record linkage) and macro (evidence synthesis) integration of available information. The former strand will integrate administrative and research data at the individual case level to create statistically powerful 'virtual' cohorts that track pathways in and out of treatment, criminal justice, and healthcare, sequencing key events. Evidence synthesis will develop models that link all the available evidence to link and test its consistency and to examine the relationships between parameters.
Collaborator Contribution Intellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionIntellectual/ Practical contributionPractical collaborationPractical collaborationIntellectual/ Practical contribution
Impact Several publications in press and in preparation
Start Year 2010
 
Description Novartis (David Ohlssen) 
Organisation Novartis
Country Global 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution Further development of statistical methodology to detect/measure conflicting evidence initially developed by David Ohlssen when he was a Unit member.
Collaborator Contribution Discussion, provision of examples, co-authorship.
Impact Publication, DOI 10.1214/13-STS426 Contributed talk to a conference (ISBA, July 2014). Invited talk at a conference (JSM, August 2015). A second paper in draft.
Start Year 2011
 
Description Poland HIV collaboration 
Organisation Polish National Institute of Public Health
Country Poland 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Development of statistical models for HIV prevalence estimation. Statistical advice.
Collaborator Contribution Data provision, scientific research, epidemiological expertise. Travel expense funding for an invited talk at a workshop that initiated the collaboration (http://beyond.mimuw.edu.pl/index.php). Accommodation funding for an invited talk/3-day research visit of staff member to University of Heidelberg (we contributed flights). Two research visits of 3 days each to our unit, to further collaboration (funded by Polish collaborators). In Jan 2014, a further research visit to our unit, which resulted in drafting a publication that is currently under revision for the journal Epidemiology and Infection. In August 2015, a further research visit to our unit, to plan next steps for this collaboration following publication DOI 10.1017/S0950268815002538.
Impact Application to EU for funding for research into developing evidence synthesis models for estimating HIV prevalence and incidence in Poland. Funding for a two day workshop on Evidence Synthesis for estimating HIV prevalence to take place in Warsaw Dec 2013. Multi-disciplinary - statisticians, mathematicians, epidemiologists. Publication, DOI 10.1017/S0950268815002538
Start Year 2012
 
Description Poland HIV collaboration 
Organisation University of Warsaw
Department Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics and Mechanics (MIM)
Country Poland 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Development of statistical models for HIV prevalence estimation. Statistical advice.
Collaborator Contribution Data provision, scientific research, epidemiological expertise. Travel expense funding for an invited talk at a workshop that initiated the collaboration (http://beyond.mimuw.edu.pl/index.php). Accommodation funding for an invited talk/3-day research visit of staff member to University of Heidelberg (we contributed flights). Two research visits of 3 days each to our unit, to further collaboration (funded by Polish collaborators). In Jan 2014, a further research visit to our unit, which resulted in drafting a publication that is currently under revision for the journal Epidemiology and Infection. In August 2015, a further research visit to our unit, to plan next steps for this collaboration following publication DOI 10.1017/S0950268815002538.
Impact Application to EU for funding for research into developing evidence synthesis models for estimating HIV prevalence and incidence in Poland. Funding for a two day workshop on Evidence Synthesis for estimating HIV prevalence to take place in Warsaw Dec 2013. Multi-disciplinary - statisticians, mathematicians, epidemiologists. Publication, DOI 10.1017/S0950268815002538
Start Year 2012
 
Description Politecnico di Milano 
Organisation Polytechnic University of Milan
Country Italy 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Performed analyses and contributed to writing papers.
Collaborator Contribution Provided data, performed some analyses and contributed to writing papers. A PhD student has started to work on this project, based at Politecnico di Milano. The work involves multi-state models with frailties for large administrative datasets, applied to hospital admission for heart failure.
Impact Ieva, Francesca, Christopher H. Jackson, and Linda D. Sharples. "Multi-State modelling of repeated hospitalisation and death in patients with Heart Failure: the use of large administrative databases in clinical epidemiology." Statistical methods in medical research (2015): 0962280215578777.
Start Year 2012
 
Description Politecnico di Milano 
Organisation University of Milan
Country Italy 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Performed analyses and contributed to writing papers.
Collaborator Contribution Provided data, performed some analyses and contributed to writing papers. A PhD student has started to work on this project, based at Politecnico di Milano. The work involves multi-state models with frailties for large administrative datasets, applied to hospital admission for heart failure.
Impact Ieva, Francesca, Christopher H. Jackson, and Linda D. Sharples. "Multi-State modelling of repeated hospitalisation and death in patients with Heart Failure: the use of large administrative databases in clinical epidemiology." Statistical methods in medical research (2015): 0962280215578777.
Start Year 2012
 
Description Thailand influenza/secondary bacterial infection collaboration with Mahidol Oxford Topical Medicine Research Unit 
Organisation Wellcome Trust
Department Mahidol University-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Programme
Country Thailand 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Statistical analysis and expertise.
Collaborator Contribution Provision of data. Microbiological, epidemiological and mathematical modelling expertise
Impact Multi-disciplinary collaboration researching the interaction of respiratory viruses and secondary bacterial infection. Includes statisticians, mathematical modellers, microbiologists and epidemiologists.
Start Year 2016
 
Description University of Bristol 
Organisation Public Health England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Scientific collaboration
Collaborator Contribution Scientific collaboration /practical contribution
Impact PMIDs: 18349037; 19036917; 19036912; 20187928; 20437454;20595255; Goubar et al; Presanis et al; 20962617; Other publications: Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs, The primary prevention of hepatitis C among injecting drug users, Home Office, 2009 (De Angelis D contributor)
Start Year 2006
 
Description University of Bristol 
Organisation University of Bristol
Department School of Social and Community Medicine
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Scientific collaboration
Collaborator Contribution Scientific collaboration /practical contribution
Impact PMIDs: 18349037; 19036917; 19036912; 20187928; 20437454;20595255; Goubar et al; Presanis et al; 20962617; Other publications: Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs, The primary prevention of hepatitis C among injecting drug users, Home Office, 2009 (De Angelis D contributor)
Start Year 2006
 
Description University of Bristol 
Organisation University of Bristol
Department School of Social and Community Medicine
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Scientific collaboration
Collaborator Contribution Scientific collaboration /practical contribution
Impact PMIDs: 18349037; 19036917; 19036912; 20187928; 20437454;20595255; Goubar et al; Presanis et al; 20962617; Other publications: Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs, The primary prevention of hepatitis C among injecting drug users, Home Office, 2009 (De Angelis D contributor)
Start Year 2006
 
Description University of Cambridge BBSRC grant 
Organisation University of Cambridge
Department Department of Veterinary Medicine
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Statistical expertise advising on BBSRC grant funded project "A longitudinal model for the spread of bovine tuberculosis"
Collaborator Contribution PI for grant 2011-2014. Statistical and mathematical modelling expertise.
Impact Multi-disciplinary: statisticians, mathematicians, veterinary epidemiologists.
Start Year 2011
 
Description University of Edinburgh 
Organisation University of Edinburgh
Department Department of Community Health Sciences
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Scientific collaboration
Collaborator Contribution Scientific collaboration and data provision
Impact PMIDs: 20437454; 20595255; 20187928 One PhD project started at MRC BSU
Start Year 2007
 
Description University of Hong Kong - influenza 
Organisation University of Hong Kong
Department School of Public Health and Department of Community Medicine
Country Hong Kong 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Staff member (Anne Presanis) providing expert advice on evidence synthesis models of influenza severity, in particular for avian H7N9 influenza.
Collaborator Contribution Prof Ben Cowling's group contributed travel funding (flights & accommodation) for AP to visit his group in Hong Kong for 3 days in June 2015, to give an invited seminar and to advise on various evidence synthesis models they are working on for estimating influenza severity.
Impact Following the research visit to Hong Kong University, Prof Cowling, as chair of the organising committee of the ISIRV 2016 workshop (https://isirv2016.influenza.hk/), invited AP to give a talk at the workshop "Model criticism for a Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate influenza severity" in January 2016. AP's travel expenses were funded by the workshop.
Start Year 2015
 
Description University of Nottingham 
Organisation Public Health England
Department Centre of Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Statistical expertise
Collaborator Contribution Expertise in epidemic modellingEpidemiological expertise
Impact PhD studentship PMID 23592544
Start Year 2009
 
Description University of Nottingham 
Organisation University of Nottingham
Department School of Mathematical Sciences Nottingham
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Statistical expertise
Collaborator Contribution Expertise in epidemic modellingEpidemiological expertise
Impact PhD studentship PMID 23592544
Start Year 2009
 
Description University of Warwick 
Organisation University of Warwick
Department School of Life Sciences
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution scientific Collaboration
Collaborator Contribution Scientific Collaboration
Impact Collaborative work ongoing and one paper under submission: Birrell PJ, De Angelis D, Wernisch L, Tom BDM, Roberts GO, Pebody RG. Efficient real-time monitoring of an emerging influenza epidemic: how feasible? (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series C))
Start Year 2007
 
Description WHO/Netherland/HPA 
Organisation National Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM)
Department Centre for Control of Infectious Diseases
Country Netherlands 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Scientific collaboration and statistical expertise
Collaborator Contribution Data provision and scientific collaborationStatistical expertise. Publications and reports.Statistical expertise
Impact Presentations at formal meetings/Scientific presentations. Papers 21150562 Technical reports: - National Estimates of HIV Prevalence and Modelling of the HIV Epidemic in Europe. World Health Organization (WHO) Technical report, March 2010 (De Angelis D, Presanis AM, Conti S, contributors) - World Health Organization (WHO), 'Transmission dynamics and impact of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus' In Weekly Epidemiological Record, No. 46, 2009, 84, 477-484. Available from http://www.who.int/wer (De Angelis D, Presanis AM, contributors)
Start Year 2007
 
Description WHO/Netherland/HPA 
Organisation Public Health England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Scientific collaboration and statistical expertise
Collaborator Contribution Data provision and scientific collaborationStatistical expertise. Publications and reports.Statistical expertise
Impact Presentations at formal meetings/Scientific presentations. Papers 21150562 Technical reports: - National Estimates of HIV Prevalence and Modelling of the HIV Epidemic in Europe. World Health Organization (WHO) Technical report, March 2010 (De Angelis D, Presanis AM, Conti S, contributors) - World Health Organization (WHO), 'Transmission dynamics and impact of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus' In Weekly Epidemiological Record, No. 46, 2009, 84, 477-484. Available from http://www.who.int/wer (De Angelis D, Presanis AM, contributors)
Start Year 2007
 
Description WHO/Netherland/HPA 
Organisation World Health Organization (WHO)
Country Global 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Scientific collaboration and statistical expertise
Collaborator Contribution Data provision and scientific collaborationStatistical expertise. Publications and reports.Statistical expertise
Impact Presentations at formal meetings/Scientific presentations. Papers 21150562 Technical reports: - National Estimates of HIV Prevalence and Modelling of the HIV Epidemic in Europe. World Health Organization (WHO) Technical report, March 2010 (De Angelis D, Presanis AM, Conti S, contributors) - World Health Organization (WHO), 'Transmission dynamics and impact of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus' In Weekly Epidemiological Record, No. 46, 2009, 84, 477-484. Available from http://www.who.int/wer (De Angelis D, Presanis AM, contributors)
Start Year 2007
 
Title Swine Flu 
Description Advice and recommendations to the government through participation in advisory group 
Type Support Tool - For Fundamental Research
Current Stage Of Development Small-scale adoption
Year Development Stage Completed 2009
Development Status Under active development/distribution
Impact Revised public health advice 
 
Title Back-calculation 
Description Bespoke software to implement Bayesian back-calculation to estimate HIV incidence & undiagnosed prevalence, employed by Public Health England for use in annual report. 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2014 
Impact Estimates from the software reported in the 2013 PHE annual HIV report, and will be reported in the 2014 report, due to be released in Nov 2014. Software has since been shared (upon request) with Dr Sally Blower, UCLA and Dr Stefan Ma, Ministry of Health, Singapore. 
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hiv-in-the-united-kingdom
 
Title MPES 
Description Bespoke evidence synthesis models for estimating disease prevalence (HIV, HCV), developed and employed by national and international public health agencies (Public Health England annually since 2006, Health Protection Scotland in 2014, Dutch National Institute of Public Health (RIVM) in 2010-11, 2014). 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2006 
Impact Annual national estimates of HIV and HCV prevalence PHE Annual report on Hepatitis C in the UK (since 2008) See link to 2014 report: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/337115/HCV_in_the_UK_2014_24_July.pdf 
URL https://www.gov.uk/hiv-overall-prevalence
 
Title MetaAnalyser 
Description MetaAnalyser web app and R package for visualising meta-analysis as a physical weighing machine 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2016 
Open Source License? Yes  
Impact Inspired the associated paper 'Weighing Evidence "Steampunk" Style via the Meta-Analyser' (Bowden and Jackson). 
URL https://github.com/chjackson/MetaAnalyser
 
Title R package flexsurv 
Description Major new release of the flexsurv package for parametric survival modelling in R. The new version (0.5) includes features for parametric multi-state modelling of event time data, spline-based non-proportional hazards models, custom hazard functions, general output reporting and usability improvements. 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2014 
Open Source License? Yes  
Impact Has been extensively used in the pharmaceutical industry for health technology assessment of novel compounds. Astra Zeneca collaborated to add major performance improvements to the package, and allowed these to be made freely available with the package. 
URL http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/flexsurv/index.html
 
Title R package msm 
Description Major release of the msm package for multi-state modelling in R. The new release (version 1.4) includes many efficiency improvements, and new features for model comparison. 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2014 
Open Source License? Yes  
Impact Software used to produce results from a paper under preparation (revision invited) for Statistics in Medicine, "State selection in Markov models for panel data with application to psoriatic arthritis" by Howard Thom et al. 
URL http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/msm/index.html
 
Title Real-Time Model for Pandemic Influenza 
Description The software is designed to use surveillance datasets likely to be available during a pandemic influenza outbreak in the UK and use these to make inference on key epidemic characteristics, forming a key component of pandemic assessment and forecasting. Software has been circulated and installed at PHE, at two sites, Colindale and Porton Down, training has been provided to key staff and further sessions are planned. 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2014 
Impact Project is ongoing. Further impacts to be realised in future, in the form of sharing the software with other healthcare bodies and its actual implementation in the face of an epidemic. 
 
Description MRC BSU Centenary Conference, March 2014 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact DDA and member of research team contributed to preparation for (and running of ) the conference (e.g. unit brochure and website), and another member of staff contributed a talk to the conference. Highlighted the unit's research.

Given the number of collaborators and peers who attended the conference, it was a chance to interact and further existing collaborations (e.g. with Health Protection Scotland and with Novartis).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/news-and-events/mrc-biostatistics-conference/
 
Description ACMD 2008 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? Yes
Type Of Presentation Keynote/Invited Speaker
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Health professionals
Results and Impact Talk at the Advisory Council for the Misuse of Drugs entitled "Estimating how many people are infected with HCV in England and Wales"

Recognition for the MRC and the Unit.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
 
Description Annecy Incidence Meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation Keynote/Invited Speaker
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Health professionals
Results and Impact De Angelis D. presented "Review of statistical methods to estimate HIV incidence from STARHS results " in Barcelona November 2008, at the Annecy Incidence Meeting (Part of the Yearly Annecy Meeting)

Recognition for the work of the MRC and the Unit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
 
Description Annual WHO/ European Network Meeting for HIV/AIDS Surveillance 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation Keynote/Invited Speaker
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Health professionals
Results and Impact Presented "Multi-parameter evidence synthesis to estimate HIV prevalence in the UK: applicability to other European countries?" at the Annual WHO meeting on HIV surveillance. Copenhagen, November 2008.
See also 2009 report: http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/communicable-diseases/hivaids/publications/2010/hivaids-surveillance-in-europe-2009

Recognition for the work of the MRC and the Unit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008,2009
URL http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/78564/E92851.pdf
 
Description Armitage Lecture and Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? Yes
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact 110+ participants attended this annual event during which an eminent medical statistician visits for a week and works with members of the Unit. The highlight is the delivery of the Armitage Lecture which is free and open to other health related professionals.
DDA was the scientific lead for this event 2013 - 2015.

Raising the profile of the Unit and strenghted its links with international institutions.
Contributingto enhance the methodological quality of medical research developed by BSU staff.
Contributing to enable Best Research for Best Health.
Facilitating communication, interaction and collaboration between member statisticians.
Participants reactions were overwhelmingly positive.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2006,2007,2008,2009,2010
URL http://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/training/workshops/armitage-lectureships-and-workshops/
 
Description Armitage Lectures 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Annual workshop and lecture created and hosted by the MRC Biostatistics Unit, to honour the immense contributions of Professor Peter Armitage who was at the unit from 1947 to 1961, and whose work is recognised throughout the world as achieving a successful balance between methodological rigour and applied commonsense, to which all statisticians aspire.

An eminent medical statistician visits for a week and works with members of the unit. The highlight is the Armitage Lecture, where more than 100 delegates attend. This event raises the unit research profile and creates new collaborations.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity Pre-2006,2006,2007,2008,
URL https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/news-and-events/armitage-lectureships-and-workshops/
 
Description Cambridge Science Festival 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? Yes
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Each year BSU participate in Cambridge Science Festival - members of the general public explore and discuss issues of scientific interest and concern, through a series of different events. The event also aims to raise aspirations by encouraging young people to consider a career in science, technology, engineering or mathematics.

BSU take part over two full days - 'Science Saturday' and the 'Cambridge Biomedical Campus' day. The unit presents a stand with 4 - 5 interactive activities that each communicate a basic statistical method or idea, representing one of the four research themes in the unit. Each year a new activity is developed and delivered requiring scientific input from staff across the unit. Over the two days, BSU engage with approximately 500 adults and children who visit the festival.


Raised awareness of the Unit's work in the local schools community
Very good feedback from festival attendants
Contributed to enhance the methodological quality of medical research developed by BSU staff
Contributed to enable Best Research for Best Health
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2007,2008,2009,2011,2012
URL http://www.cam.ac.uk/science-festival
 
Description Case study: 'Devising and applying statistical methods to underpin national HIV policy' 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Programme Leader, Daniela De Angelis, wrote a case study for the 'Public Health: Research into Policy' project on how she engages with policy through providing UK official estimates on HIV prevalence, for the 'HIV in the UK' report. Case study called 'Devising and applying statistical methods to underpin national HIV policy'
http://www.iph.cam.ac.uk/public-health-policy/case-studies/hivstatistics/
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.iph.cam.ac.uk/public-health-policy/case-studies/hivstatistics/
 
Description Department of Health Scientific Pandemic Influenza Advisory Committee, subgroup on Modelling (SPIM-O) 2011 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? Yes
Type Of Presentation Keynote/Invited Speaker
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presentation of current relevant work at the Department of Health Scientific Pandemic Influenza Advisory Committee, subgroup on Modelling (SPIM-O). Audience included scientists and policy-makers

The work presented forms the basis of an ongoing funding application to NIHR
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2011
 
Description Epidemics 4 conference 2013, Amsterdam 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation poster presentation
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Two staff members contributed posters describing their work, that were presented during poster sessions at the conference.

Interaction with peers/collaborators in the epidemics research community.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2009,2013
URL http://www.epidemics.elsevier.com/previous-conferences.html
 
Description Evidence Synthesis for Decision Modelling - 5-Day Course 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation Workshop Facilitator
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Health professionals
Results and Impact D De Angelis was a course instructor - Evidence synthesis for decision modelling (Venice- Italy, July 2009)
Web Reference: http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cobm/research/mpes/esdm.html

Recognition for the work of the MRC and the Unit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2009
URL http://www.csdassn.org/meetingdetail.cfm?ID=1022
 
Description HPA Conference 2008 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation Keynote/Invited Speaker
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Health professionals
Results and Impact Invited speaker at Health Protection Agency conference. Talk entitled "Estimating how many people are infected with HCV in England and Wales: an evidence synthesis approach"

Recognition for the MRC and the Unit.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
 
Description HPA Meeting 2008 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation Keynote/Invited Speaker
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Invited speaker at HPA Meeting with Prof Beddington (Government Chief Scientific Advisor). Talk entitled "Synthesis of evidence from multiple sources"

Recognition for the MRC and the unit.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
 
Description Health Protection Scotland Symposium on The Changing Epidemiological and Therapeutic Landscape for Hepatitis C 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation keynote/invited speaker
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact DDA Invited Chair Health Protection Scotland Symposium on The Changing Epidemiological and Therapeutic Landscape for Hepatitis C.
The talk sparked questions and discussion afterwards.

This event facilitated communication, interaction and collaboration between scientists.
Raised the profile of the Unit and strenghted its links with international institutions.
BSU strengthened its reputation as a major centre for knowledge transfer.
Potential future collaborations.
Attendees' reactions to the talk were very positive.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://www.hps.scot.nhs.uk/
 
Description ICAR Rome 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? Yes
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact My presentation was to explain methods to estimate the number of people infected with HIV and, particularly, the number of undiagnosed.

The audience was very engaged and I had a number of enquiries after my talk.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description ISBA conference Jul 2014 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Staff member from DDA Research Team contributed a talk to the conference, received questions/discussion afterwards.

Staff member received a travel award from the International Society of Bayesian Analysis to partially fund her travel to the conference.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL https://bayesian.org/abstracts/6886
 
Description IUSTI Conference 2008 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation Keynote/Invited Speaker
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Health professionals
Results and Impact Invited speaker at the The International Union against Sexually Transmitted Infections (IUSTI) Conference.
Talk entitled "The rational for estimating HIV incidence"
The IUSTI is the oldest international organisation in the field (founded in 1923). Its object is the achievement of international cooperation in the control of sexually transmitted diseases, including HIV infection.
IUSTI is especially concerned not only with the medical aspects but the social and epidemiological aspects of the control of sexually transmitted diseases and increasingly HIV/AIDS.
IUSTI is on the Roster of the United Nations Economic and Social Council, and is an Official Non-Government Organisation in Consultative Status with the World Health Organisation.

Recognition for the MRC and the Unit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
URL http://www.iusti.org/
 
Description International Society for Clinical Biostatistics conference, Vienna 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Howard Thom gave a presentation based on joint work with (staff member) Chris Jackson and Linda Sharples. This stimulated discussion.

Helped to focus the preparation of a paper about the work. No specific external impacts known.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.iscb2014.info/
 
Description Interviewee, BBC News 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact DDA led research "HIV incidence in men who have sex with men in England and Wales 2001--10: a nationwide population study". A paper was published on The Lancet Infectious Diseases, which sparked media outlets interest.
DDA was interviewed in two different radio programmes (BBC Radio 4 Today Program, and BBC Radio 5 live) and was also quoted in an article published by BBC News online (under the Health section).

Contributed to raise the profile of Biostatistics in medical research
Contributed to enable Best Research for Best Health
Increased awareness of how statistical methods can be used to estimate important characteristics of an epidemic and to influence policy.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-21277450
 
Description Interviewee, BBC Radio 4 Today Program 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact DDA Interviewee, BBC Radio 4 Today Program- February 2013. She informed the public about HIV epidemiology in this country and sparked discussions.
BBC radio 4 also tweeted about it: https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/297247840290369536 and included weblink to BBC News website: HIV levels in gay men 'not falling'. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-21277450)


Contributed to raise the profile of Biostatistics in medical research
Contributed to enhance the methodological quality of medical research developed by BSU staff
Contributed to enable Best Research for Best Health
Increased awareness of how statistical methods can be used to estimate important characteristics of an epidemic and to influence policy.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qj9z
 
Description Interviewee, BBC Radio 5 live 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact DDA Interviewee, BBC Radio 5 live on February 2013: dissemination of recently published work on HIV incidence in men who have sex with men in England and Wales 2001-10: a nationwide population study. She informed the public about HIV epidemiology in this country and sparked discussions.


Contributed to raise the profile of Biostatistics in medical research
Contributed to enhance the methodological quality of medical research developed by BSU staff
Contributed to enable Best Research for Best Health
Increased awareness of how statistical methods can be used to estimate important characteristics of an epidemic and to influence policy.
Increase in request for further information: media outlets took interest and DDA was interviewed in two different radio stations and cited on various articles published online
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://www.bbc.co.uk/5live
 
Description Invited Talk, School of Mathematics and Statistics Seminar, Sheffield University 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation Keynote/Invited Speaker
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Staff member invited to present her work on Bayesian non-parametrics as part of Sheffield University Mathematics & Statistics Seminar series.

Increased awareness among peers of our research.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Invited lecture MPhil in Public Health, Cambridge University. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Dissemination of specialized knowledge to non expert audience. Very good feedback.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Invited presentation at Royal Statistical Society 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Structural uncertainty in health economic evaluations: going into the unknown. Invited presentation by Chris Jackson at Royal Statistical Society meeting on statistical methods in health economics
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Invited presentation at a research kitchen at University of Nottingham 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Invited presentation to talk about the use of emulation methods for approximating complex statistical/mathematical models for epidemic activity to a 'Research Kitchen' on the theme of 'Statistical Inference for Epidemic Models'. The aim of the meeting was to foster collaboration and as a result has already led to one further meeting with a potential collaborator from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Invited speaker at Imperial College DIDE Seminar Series 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation Keynote/Invited Speaker
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Two staff members were invited speakers as part of the Imperial College Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology weekly seminar series, in January and November 2013 respectively.

Increased awareness among mathematical modellers of our research at interface between statistical and mathematical modelling of infectious disease.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Invited speaker at University of Heidelberg seminar series 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation Keynote/Invited Speaker
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Staff member invited to present on statistical methods in infectious disease modelling as part of seminar series in the "Applied Analysis and Modelling in Biosciences" research group. Audience mainly postgraduate students, but also other academic researchers.

Continuing collaboration with Polish collaborators, one of whom is a visiting researcher to the group in Heidelberg.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description Invited talk Wellcome Trust Advanced Course: Mathematical Models for Infectious Disease Dynamics 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Dissemination of knowledge on statistical modelling in infectious diseases to non expert audience.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Invited talk at the Trinity College Mathematical Society 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Undergraduate students
Results and Impact Invitation to speak on the use of mathematical and statistical modelling for the tracking of Epidemics to undergraduate and postgraduate students at Trinity College, University of Cambridge
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL https://www.srcf.ucam.org/tms/talks-archive/
 
Description Isaac Newton Institute Programme on Infectious Disease Dynamics 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Two staff members from DDA's research team participated in a week long workshop as part of the INI programme on Infectious Disease Dynamics.

Paper for special issue of Epidemics journal devoted to INI programme is in press, DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.004
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL https://www.newton.ac.uk/event/idd
 
Description LSHTM's 23rd Austin Bradford Hill Memorial Lecture, and Clinical Trials: Past, Present and Glorious Future meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? Yes
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Health professionals
Results and Impact Talks sparked questions and discussion afterwards.

This event facilitated communication, interaction and collaboration between scientists.
Raised the profile of the Unit and strenghted its links with international institutions.
BSU strengthened its reputation as a major centre for knowledge transfer.
Attendees' reactions to the talk were very positive.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/bradford-hill-memorial-lecture/
 
Description Lecture for APTS students 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? Yes
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact DDA talked about her career as a medical statistician. Talk entitled: Making a life (presentationon work/life balance, with an opportunity for informal discussion), 17th December, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge.
The presentation sparked questions and discussions.

Improved understanding about potential career avenues for PhD students in statistics.
BSU strengthened its reputation as a major centre for knowledge transfer.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/apts/students/weeks/apts-info-pack-cambridge.pdf
 
Description MCMSki 4 Conference, Chamonix, Jan 2014 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Two staff members, Dr Paul Birrell and Dr Marian Farah gave poster presentations to an audience of researchers in computational statistics on challenges in the real-time modelling of pandemic influenza outbreaks and the use of emulation to make inference from computationally expensive epidemic models.

Arising out of this meeting, one researcher with common research interests, Jeger Pitchforth, came to the BSU to give a seminar. Furthermore, the meeting cemented a working relationship with Dr Martyn Plummer of IARC, Lyon. Dr Plummer was subsequently a visitor to out research group in the BSU in Nov 2014.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.pages.drexel.edu/~mwl25/mcmski/
 
Description MRC Centenary Open Day 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact 50 + people attended an exhibition about the history, pioneers and discoveries of the MRC Biostatistics Unit, and a series of talks and lectures as part of the BSU contribution to MRC Centenary Open Days

Raising the profile of the Unit in the local region.
This event facilitated communication, interaction and collaboration between member statisticians.
This event contributed to enhance the methodological quality of medical research developed by BSU staff.
This event contributed to enable Best Research for Best Health.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/mrc-bsu-successfully-joined-medical-research-council-open-week/
 
Description Media enquiry - BBC News 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Daniela De Angelis and Anne Presanis, provided estimates for research on HIV prevalence, reported in Public Health England Report: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/477702/HIV_in_the_UK_2015_report.pdf

BBC News reported on new evidence in online article: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36795219
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36795219
 
Description Meeting with Serbian Delegation of Public Health Professionals 2010 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation Keynote/Invited Speaker
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Health professionals
Results and Impact Presentation to a Serbian Delegation of Public Health professionals to instruct them on HIV surveillance and prevalence and incidence estimation methods

Possible future collaborations
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010
 
Description Member of Scientific Committee of the Medical Research Council Conference on Biostatistics 2014 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact The Medical Research Conference on Biostatistics was an international event in celebration of the MRC Biostatistics Unit's Centenary Year. It took place at Queens' College Cambridge, UK, on 24th - 26th March 2014.
230 delegates from different parts of the world converged in Cambridge last week for three days of Biostatistics' training, knowledge transfer partnerships, networking and fun. This was the first year that the MRC Biostatistics Unit organised an event of this type, leading to a great interest from those who attended to start new collaborations and strengthen the existing ones.

BSU strengthened its reputation as a major centre for knowledge transfer.
Delegates' reactions to the BSU centenary conference were overwhelmingly positive with many singling out the 'great research', 'excellent speakers', 'sparkling conference', and the work of the organising team as 'great'; and 'smooth'.
This event facilitated communication, interaction and collaboration between member statisticians.
This event contributed to raise the profile of Biostatistics in medical research.
This event contributed to enhance the methodological quality of medical research developed by BSU staff.
This event contributed to enable Best Research for Best Health.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013,2014
URL http://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/news-and-events/mrc-biostatistics-conference/
 
Description NICE Encounter 2008 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation Keynote/Invited Speaker
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Health professionals
Results and Impact Invited speaker at the NICE Encounter: Evidence Synthesis and Public Health Workshop.
Talk entitled "Devilishly into practice: Hepatitis C surveillance in England and Wales"

Recognition for the MRC and the Unit.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
URL http://www.mrc-centre.cam.ac.uk/reg_com/NICE_encounter.html
 
Description NIHR/MRC Symposium 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? Yes
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact I organised a breakout session to stimulate discussion on methods for infectious disease modelling

The symposium was rated very higly and will be repeated in the future
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Poster presentation at ISBA conference, Sardinia, by AP 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Staff member AP contributed a poster presentation at the ISBA conference. Interacted with other statisticians, poster generated questions/discussion.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.corsiecongressi.com/isba2016/scientific-program.asp
 
Description Poster presentation at MRC Centenary Award Symposium, Nov 2013 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Staff member contributed poster describing work arising from her Centenary Award funding, which funded a two month research trip to visit collaborators at Harvard School of Public Health. The Symposium was for all Centenary Award holders.

Interaction with other MRC Centenary Award holders.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Presentation at Armitage Lecture event, Cambridge, by C Jackson 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation of the work in the paper "On Modelling Minimal Disease Activity" (Jackson, Su, Gladman, Farewell). Engaging discussions afterwards has inspired us to take the work further.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Presentation at ISBA conference, Sardinia, by C Jackson 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Poster presentation. Inspired discussions with interested audience members. Helped to focus the presentation of the work as a journal paper.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Quintessential 'Counting for Health' for Parliamentarians and their researchers 2009 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation Poster Presentation
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Policy-relevant topical examples in 'Counting for Health' were used to illustrate infectious disease epidemics.

Recognition for the MRC and the Unit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2009
 
Description RIVM Netherlands 2009 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation Keynote/Invited Speaker
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Health professionals
Results and Impact 30 people attended the initial reports meeting of the RIVM (Nationa Institute for Public Heakth and the Envirnment- The Netherlands)

Initial report of results from the collaboration
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2009
URL http://www.rivm.nl/en
 
Description RSS workshop 2007 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation Keynote/Invited Speaker
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Invited speaker at the RSS workshop "Media and Statisticians: myths and memoranda".
Talk entitled: "Media avoidance"

Recognition for the MRC and the Unit.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2007
URL http://www.rss.org.uk/
 
Description SPIM presentation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? Yes
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact I presented our work on models for real time tracking of an emerging epidemic. The presentation sparked questions and discussions afterwards.

We are providing Public Health England the methods and software for real time estimation and forecasting of an emerging epidemic.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Seminar at Imperial College, Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, by Chris Jackson 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Questions and discussion afterwards
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Seminar at University of Sheffield 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Staff member (Christopher Jackson) gave a seminar (Structuring state-transition models for disease progression) to the Department of Probability and Statistics). The talk stimulated discussion afterwards, and several people who couldn't attend asked for the slides.

The talk formed the basis of a paper that is currently being prepared for publication by Howard Thom, Chris Jackson and Linda Sharples
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://maths.dept.shef.ac.uk/maths/sem_history.html
 
Description Statistics Meets Public Health talk 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Programme Leader, Daniel;a De Angelis, gave talk as part of 'Statistics Meets Public Health' seminar series - a series of non-technical talks, aiming to illustrate the links between statistical research and public health, targetted to lay audiences and free to attend.

Daniela gave talk on 'Shaping Public Health Policy on Infectious Diseases through Evidence Synthesis' to approximately 40 audience members.

Future talks in seminar series arranged.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Stockholm-Euro-HIV meeting 2008 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? Yes
Type Of Presentation Keynote/Invited Speaker
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Invited speaker at the EURO-HIV meeting in Stockholm. Talk entitled "HIV incidence estimates in the collaborating countries"

Recognition for the MRC and the unit.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
 
Description Talk at workshop about Value of Information at University of Sheffield, by C Jackson 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presented early work in progress on Value of Information in evidence synthesis to an audience of people working in a similar area. The discussion helped to refine ideas about how to develop this work into a paper.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description UNAIDS Reference Group Meeting 2008 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation Keynote/Invited Speaker
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Health professionals
Results and Impact De Angelis D presented "Performance of different prevalence estimation tools in the Netherlands, and comparison with case reports of HIV infection" at UNAIDS Reference Group Meeting. December 2008, Amsterdam.

Recognition for the work of the MRC and the Unit.
Published report: "Estimation of the size of high risk groups and HIV prevalence in high risk groups in concentrated epidemics". Report of a meeting of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections held in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Dec 9-10th 2008. TECHNICAL REPORT AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
URL http://www.epidem.org/sites/default/files/reports/Final%20Report_Amsterdam2008_July%202009.pdf
 
Description University College London, invited seminar 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Improving long-term survival estimation through flexible models, combining evidence and accessible software". University College London, invited seminar by Chris Jackson.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description WHO 2010 Estimation of HIV Prevalence in The Netherlands 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation Keynote/Invited Speaker
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact 30+ people attended talk on Estimation of HIV prevalence in the Netherlands.
This work is part of a project in collaboration with WHO/Europe and the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) on reviewing and comparing methodologies for national estimates of HIV prevalence and modelling of the HIV epidemic in Europe

Recognition of the work done by the MRC BSU by European policymakers/ parliamentarians
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010
 
Description WHO/ECDC/ UNAIDS Meeting 2007 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? Yes
Type Of Presentation Keynote/Invited Speaker
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Invited speaker at WHO/ECDC/UNAIDS meeting in Amsterdam. Talk entitled "Current developments on estimation of HIV prevalence/incidence in the UK"

Recognition for the MRC and the Unit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2007
 
Description Workshop in Warsaw on Bayesian evidence synthesis methods for estimating HIV prevalence and incidence, Dec 2013 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation keynote/invited speaker
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact This three day workshop. Data driven application of Bayesian approach and Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods to estimation of HIV prevalence; was jointly organised by a member of my staff and our Polish collaborators from the University of Warsaw and the Polish National Institute of Public Health. I was an invited speaker, as were two of my staff, and two of us acted as discussants also. The workshop attendees and other speakers were statisticians, mathematicians and epidemiologists from various European countries (Poland, Italy, Spain, Denmark) interested in adopting our Bayesian evidence synthesis methods to estimate HIV prevalence and incidence in their own countries. The workshop has stimulated ongoing collaboration with some of these countries.

A further research visit to our unit by our Polish collaborators in Jan 2014, leading to a paper under revision.
Continued collaboration with our Italian colleagues, via a PhD student in our unit analysing their data.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://wcmcs.edu.pl/small-meetings
 
Description Workshop on efficient methods for expected value of information calculations (University of Bristol) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Staff member (Christopher Jackson) gave a presentation at this workshop. This simulated ongoing discussion of potential grant applications for future collaborative work.

The researchers involved are currently discussing new collaborative work.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.bristol.ac.uk/media-library/sites/social-community-medicine/images/centres/conduct/effici...