Evidence Synthesis to inform health related decision making

Lead Research Organisation: University of Cambridge

Abstract

In order to make decisions about management of diseases it is necessary to understand how diseases develop and spread and how interventions will impact on them. This often requires us to identify and combine many sources of information so that we can take robust decisions relevant to the clinical or public health context of interest. For example, when the objective is to control an infectious disease in the community we need to know how many people are affected by the disease (prevalence) and in which age groups; how it is currently spreading (incidence); how it is transmitted (transmission and infectivity); and the geographical location where the disease is more prevalent. This information will feed into relevant interventions, such as vaccination or treatment. This would require understanding to which subgroups of the population vaccination should be given first, or for which patients is a particular treatment cost-effective.
Data on each of these aspects will typically come from several studies, possibly with different formats and not directly interpretable. Robust statistical methods are then needed to integrate such multiplicity of evidence in a coherent manner to make it useful input for decision making.

Technical Summary

Decisions regarding health policy are being increasingly informed by the synthesis of evidence from multiple sources.
Often available evidence comes from a multitude of heterogeneous sources or studies, may be incomplete, biased, refers to populations different from those of interest, and/or is sparse. Robust statistical methods and epidemiological understanding are then needed to integrate such a patchwork of evidence in a coherent manner to make it useful for decision making. Approaches to such syntheses range from meta-analysis through generalised evidence to decision theoretic methods required for advising on health policies.
Our work focuses on developing and statistical methodology to design, fit and evaluate complex models for evidence synthesis.
Outstanding methodological challenges include statistical standard setting for inclusion of data sources, model development and criticism, including handling of heterogeneity and biases, detecting, quantifying and resolving possible inconsistency between sources and development of appropriate and accessible computational approaches.
Further, the abundance of emerging data sources available, as a result of investment in e-health, means that it is more important than ever to apply rigorous scientific principles to develop models which have a sound and relevant evidence base. In addition, as new types of biomedical information, such as genetic and genomic data, become available, its integration into existing evidence synthesis frameworks will become increasingly important.
Our work is inspired by, and applied to, substantive problems in medical research with particular emphasis on infectious diseases, addictions and evaluation of public health interventions.

Organisations

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description Department of Health Scientific Pandemic Influenza Advisory Committee, subgroup on Modelling (SPIM-O)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in advisory committee
Impact Member of SPI-M (O) SPI-M(O) advices the Department of Health on methods of data analysis in the preparedness for and during an emerging epidemic. The goal is to reduce the impact of an epidemic.
 
Description HCV prevalence estimates, 2007 - present
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact New methods for HCV prevalence estimates ; Recognition for the MRC and the unit ; First robust quantification of HCV burden. Annual reports produced: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/477702/HIV_in_the_UK_2015_report.pdf https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/337115/HCV_in_the_UK_2014_24_July.pdf http://www.hpa.org.uk/webw/HPAweb&HPAwebStandard/HPAweb_C/1317135237627 http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/BloodBorneInfections/1107HepCintheUK2011report/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/BloodBorneInfections/0912HepatitisC/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/BloodBorneInfections/0812HepatitisC/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/BloodBorneInfections/0712HepatitisCannualreport/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/BloodBorneInfections/0612HepatitisCinEnglandAnupdate2006/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/BloodBorneInfections/0512HepatitisCAnnualReport2005/
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hepatitis-c-in-the-uk
 
Description HIV prevalence estimates
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact New methods for HIV prevalence estimates; Recognition for the MRC and the Unit; Estimates contribute to HIV testing policy in the UK; In 2011, estimates contributed to the House of Lords Select Committee on HIV/AIDS (http://www.parliament.uk/HIVSELECT). 9 annual reports 2005-present produced: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hiv-in-the-united-kingdom http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/1211HIVintheUK2012/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/1111HIVintheUK2011report/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/1011HIVUK2010Report/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0911HIVUK2009Report/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0811hivUK/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0711TestingTimesHIVandSTIsReport/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0611ComplexPictureUKHIVSTI/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0511MappingHIVandSTIinUK2005/
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hiv-in-the-united-kingdom
 
Description Member of Scottish Healthcare Associated Infection Preventive Institute (SHAIPI) International Advisory Group
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
URL http://www.gla.ac.uk/researchinstitutes/iii/research/researchcentres/sirn/shaipi/welcometoshaipi/gov...
 
Description Public Health England Annual Report on HIV - Situation Report: Incidence, prevalence and prevention
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/477702/HIV_in_the_UK_2015_...
 
Description EPSRC grant "New Approaches to Bayesian Data Science: Tackling Challenges from the Health Sciences"
Amount £2,950,000 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/R018561/1 
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2018 
End 03/2022
 
Description NIHR HPRU
Amount £350,000 (GBP)
Organisation National Institute for Health Research 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description NIHR PRP (ODA-02-01) ODA: Epidemiology for Vaccinology
Amount £249,342 (GBP)
Funding ID PR-OD-1017-20006 
Organisation National Institute for Health Research 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2018 
End 03/2021
 
Description NIHR grant "Evaluating the Population Impact of Hepatitis C Direct Acting Antiviral Treatment as Prevention for Peoplw Who Inject Drugs" (EPIToPe)
Amount £2,800,000 (GBP)
Funding ID RP-PG-0616-20008 
Organisation National Institute for Health Research 
Department Programme Grants for Applied Research (PGfAR)
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2018 
End 03/2022
 
Description Public Health England DDA salary support
Amount £235,000 (GBP)
Organisation Public Health England 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2016 
End 03/2021
 
Description Public Health England Studentship
Amount £78,000 (GBP)
Organisation Public Health England 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2016 
End 03/2019
 
Description York- HEE grant- Jackson
Amount £15,938 (GBP)
Organisation Medical Research Council (MRC) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 11/2016 
End 10/2018
 
Description ADAGIO - Adaptive Designs And Genomics In Outbreaks - NIHR PRP (ODA-02-01) ODA: Epidemiology for Vaccinology 
Organisation Harvard University
Department Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution We have collaborated to obtain funding from the NIHR call on Epidemiology for Vaccinology, to work on a joint project improving vaccine trials in emerging epidemics through the use of genomic data and novel adaptive designs. The project brings together several different areas of expertise. Our contribution is on real-time epidemic modelling, adaptive designs and Bayesian decision theory.
Collaborator Contribution Harvard contribute expertise on the use of sequence data in epidemic modelling. Oxford contribute expertise on epidemic modelling and clinical trials in emerging epidemics.
Impact The initial output has been obtaining the NIHR grant to fund the work (NIHR PRP (ODA-02-01) ODA: Epidemiology for Vaccinology).
Start Year 2017
 
Description ADAGIO - Adaptive Designs And Genomics In Outbreaks - NIHR PRP (ODA-02-01) ODA: Epidemiology for Vaccinology 
Organisation University of Oxford
Department Nuffield Department of Medicine
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution We have collaborated to obtain funding from the NIHR call on Epidemiology for Vaccinology, to work on a joint project improving vaccine trials in emerging epidemics through the use of genomic data and novel adaptive designs. The project brings together several different areas of expertise. Our contribution is on real-time epidemic modelling, adaptive designs and Bayesian decision theory.
Collaborator Contribution Harvard contribute expertise on the use of sequence data in epidemic modelling. Oxford contribute expertise on epidemic modelling and clinical trials in emerging epidemics.
Impact The initial output has been obtaining the NIHR grant to fund the work (NIHR PRP (ODA-02-01) ODA: Epidemiology for Vaccinology).
Start Year 2017
 
Description Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation HIV Modelling Consortium 
Organisation University of Stellenbosch
Department South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis
Country South Africa 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Statistical analysis and expertise in modelling early HIV infection.
Collaborator Contribution Providing simulated data, epidemiological and mathematical expertise and benchmarking other methods. Provided funds to allow me to attend workshops for the consortium in Boston and Rome 2012-2013.
Impact Paper in preparation. Multi-disciplinary - statisticians, mathematicians and epidemiologists.
Start Year 2012
 
Description Bristol/ Thom and Jackson 
Organisation University of Bristol
Department School of Cellular and Molecular Medicine
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution TBC
Collaborator Contribution TBC
Impact None as yet
Start Year 2016
 
Description CDC Global HIV/AIDS/TB Key Populations Group 
Organisation Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Country United States 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Statistical consultancy and dissemination of our evidence synthesis methods to CDC partners, leading to a new collaboration to apply these methods to the estimation of key population sizes and HIV prevalence in different countries around the world that CDC work with. Advice on the adoption of our methods to different countries/contexts/populations.
Collaborator Contribution Introduction to CDC's country-specific partners who may want to adopt our methods for the estimation of key population sizes and HIV prevalence in their countries, provision of data.
Impact Not yet. Multi-disciplinary collaboration - statistical advice provided by us, to epidemiologists and statistical epidemiologists working at CDC and at public health institutes in different countries that CDC work with.
Start Year 2016
 
Description Dutch National Institute of Public Health (RIVM)/University of Utrecht 
Organisation National Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM)
Country Netherlands 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Collaborators in a grant application and related research activities - we contribute statistical inference knowledge.
Collaborator Contribution Knowledge on mathematical modelling of infectious disease methods
Impact The collaboration involves statisticians, mathematical modellers and infectious disease epidemiologists
Start Year 2013
 
Description Dutch National Institute of Public Health (RIVM)/University of Utrecht 
Organisation University Medical Center Utrecht (UMC)
Country Netherlands 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Collaborators in a grant application and related research activities - we contribute statistical inference knowledge.
Collaborator Contribution Knowledge on mathematical modelling of infectious disease methods
Impact The collaboration involves statisticians, mathematical modellers and infectious disease epidemiologists
Start Year 2013
 
Description ECDC project to estimate Hepatitis C prevalence in Croatia using Bayesian Evidence Synthesis 
Organisation European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)
Country European Union (EU) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Expertise on burden estimation using Bayesian evidence synthesis.
Collaborator Contribution Expertise on epidemiology of hepatitis C.
Impact No outputs yet.
Start Year 2019
 
Description HPRU (Bristol, UCL, University of the West of England) 
Organisation Public Health England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Contribute technical expertise (statistical ) to methods for evaluation of interventions. Linked to Public Health England
Collaborator Contribution Mathematical modelling techniques - epidemiological /social science knowledge
Impact No outputs yet. Still recruiting.
Start Year 2014
 
Description HPRU (Bristol, UCL, University of the West of England) 
Organisation University College London
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Contribute technical expertise (statistical ) to methods for evaluation of interventions. Linked to Public Health England
Collaborator Contribution Mathematical modelling techniques - epidemiological /social science knowledge
Impact No outputs yet. Still recruiting.
Start Year 2014
 
Description HPRU (Bristol, UCL, University of the West of England) 
Organisation University of Bristol
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Contribute technical expertise (statistical ) to methods for evaluation of interventions. Linked to Public Health England
Collaborator Contribution Mathematical modelling techniques - epidemiological /social science knowledge
Impact No outputs yet. Still recruiting.
Start Year 2014
 
Description HPRU (Bristol, UCL, University of the West of England) 
Organisation University of the West of England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Contribute technical expertise (statistical ) to methods for evaluation of interventions. Linked to Public Health England
Collaborator Contribution Mathematical modelling techniques - epidemiological /social science knowledge
Impact No outputs yet. Still recruiting.
Start Year 2014
 
Description Health Protection Agency 
Organisation Public Health England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Development/ application of statistical methods to enable a better understanding of the HIV epidemic in the UK.
Collaborator Contribution Data provision and epidemiological expertise
Impact Many scientific publications. One PhD thesis completed. Reports: - Health Protection Agency, HIV in the United Kingdom: 2009 Report, London, United Kingdom, November 2009. Available from: http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0911HIVUK2009Report/ (De Angelis D, Presanis AM, contributors). - Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections HIV, HIV in the United Kingdom: 2008 report, London, United Kingdom, November 2008. Available from: http://www.hpa.org.uk/hivuk2008 (De Angelis D, Presanis A, contributors).
Start Year 2007
 
Description Health Protection Agency -Influenza 
Organisation Public Health England
Department Centre of Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Statistical analysis and consultation Publication
Collaborator Contribution Data provision and statistical expertise
Impact PMIDs: 22042838; 21903689; 21087539, doi:10.1214/14-AOAS775 Papers under submission: Birrell PJ, Zhang X-S, Pebody RG, Gay NJ, De Angelis D. Reconstructing a spatially heterogeneous epidemic: Characterising the geographic spread of 2009 A/H1N1 infection in England (Scientific Reports) Birrell PJ, De Angelis D, Wernisch L, Tom BDM, Roberts GO, Pebody RG. Efficient real-time monitoring of an emerging influenza epidemic: how feasible? (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series C))
Start Year 2009
 
Description Health Protection Agency -Influenza 
Organisation Royal College of General Practitioners
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Statistical analysis and consultation Publication
Collaborator Contribution Data provision and statistical expertise
Impact PMIDs: 22042838; 21903689; 21087539, doi:10.1214/14-AOAS775 Papers under submission: Birrell PJ, Zhang X-S, Pebody RG, Gay NJ, De Angelis D. Reconstructing a spatially heterogeneous epidemic: Characterising the geographic spread of 2009 A/H1N1 infection in England (Scientific Reports) Birrell PJ, De Angelis D, Wernisch L, Tom BDM, Roberts GO, Pebody RG. Efficient real-time monitoring of an emerging influenza epidemic: how feasible? (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series C))
Start Year 2009
 
Description Health Protection Agency UK-HIV 
Organisation Public Health England
Department Centre of Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Statistical expertise. Publications and reports.
Collaborator Contribution Data provision and statistical expertise
Impact PMID: 21087539; 21525422; 21422986; 20962617; 19081004; 22039196; 21932033 Reports: The UK Collaborative Group for HIV and STI surveillance. 2005. Mapping the issues. HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in the United Kingdom:2005 The UK Collaborative Group for HIV and STI surveillance. 2006. A Complex picture. HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in the United Kingdom:2006 The UK Collaborative Group for HIV and STI surveillance. 2007. Testing times. HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in the United Kingdom:2007 Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. HIV in the United Kingdom: 2008 report (www.hpa.org.uk/hivuk2008) Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. HIV in the United Kingdom: 2009 report (www.hpa.org.uk/hivuk2009) Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. HIV in the United Kingdom: 2010 report (www.hpa.org.uk/hivuk2010)
 
Description Health Protection Agency- HCV 
Organisation Public Health England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Statistical analysis and consultation Publications and reports
Collaborator Contribution Statistical input and data provision
Impact PMIDs: 21875456; 21708792; 19546152; 19036917; 19036912 Reports: Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. 2005. Hepatitis C in England; the first Health Protection Agency Annual Report. 2005 Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. 2006. Hepatitis C in England; an update. 2006 Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. 2007. Hepatitis C in England; an update. 2007 Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. 2008. Hepatitis C in the UK 2008 Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. 2009. Hepatitis C in the UK 2009 Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. 2011. Hepatitis C in the UK 2011
 
Description Health Protection Scotland 
Organisation NHS National Services Scotland (NSS)
Department Health Protection Scotland
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Statistical expertise on evidence synthesis
Collaborator Contribution Epidemiological expertise
Impact Paper in preparation on estimating HCV prevalence amongst IDUs in Scotland. Renewed funding for the project for 2013-2015.
Start Year 2010
 
Description Health Protection Scotland 
Organisation University of the West of Scotland
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Statistical expertise on evidence synthesis
Collaborator Contribution Epidemiological expertise
Impact Paper in preparation on estimating HCV prevalence amongst IDUs in Scotland. Renewed funding for the project for 2013-2015.
Start Year 2010
 
Description IARC - Martyn Plummer 
Organisation International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC)
Country France 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Providing applications which motivate development of further modules in the software JAGS.
Collaborator Contribution Development of a module in the software JAGS to combine one of DDA's PhD student's C++ code with JAGS.
Impact None yet, software module still under development. Joint publications in progress.
Start Year 2014
 
Description Institute Pasteur/PHE respiratory virus and secondary bacterial infection collaboration 
Organisation Pasteur Institute, Paris
Department Laboratory of Pharmacoepidemiology and Infectious Diseases
Country France 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution Statistical expertise on evidence synthesis and time series modelling.
Collaborator Contribution Provision of data, epidemiological expertise.
Impact Not yet. Multidisciplinary collaboration, comprising statisticians, mathematical modellers and epidemiologists.
Start Year 2017
 
Description Institute Pasteur/PHE respiratory virus and secondary bacterial infection collaboration 
Organisation Public Health England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Statistical expertise on evidence synthesis and time series modelling.
Collaborator Contribution Provision of data, epidemiological expertise.
Impact Not yet. Multidisciplinary collaboration, comprising statisticians, mathematical modellers and epidemiologists.
Start Year 2017
 
Description Istituto Superiore di Sanita, Italy 
Organisation National Institute of Health
Country Italy 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Statistical expertise
Collaborator Contribution Data provision. Testing facilities.
Impact PMID:21170913
Start Year 2008
 
Description Istituto Superiore di Sanita, Italy 
Organisation Public Health England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Statistical expertise
Collaborator Contribution Data provision. Testing facilities.
Impact PMID:21170913
Start Year 2008
 
Description NATSAL 
Organisation National Centre for Social Research
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Statistical modelling and expertise.
Collaborator Contribution Provision of data to contribute to evidence syntheses to estimate prevalence of HIV and HCV.
Impact HIV and HCV annual reports from Public Health England.
 
Description NATSAL 
Organisation University College London
Department School of Life and Medical Sciences
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Statistical modelling and expertise.
Collaborator Contribution Provision of data to contribute to evidence syntheses to estimate prevalence of HIV and HCV.
Impact HIV and HCV annual reports from Public Health England.
 
Description Novartis (David Ohlssen) 
Organisation Novartis
Country Global 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution Further development of statistical methodology to detect/measure conflicting evidence initially developed by David Ohlssen when he was a Unit member.
Collaborator Contribution Discussion, provision of examples, co-authorship.
Impact Publication, DOI 10.1214/13-STS426 Contributed talk to a conference (ISBA, July 2014). Invited talk at a conference (JSM, August 2015). A second paper in draft.
Start Year 2011
 
Description Poland HIV collaboration 
Organisation Polish National Institute of Public Health
Country Poland 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Development of statistical models for HIV prevalence estimation. Statistical advice.
Collaborator Contribution Data provision, scientific research, epidemiological expertise. Travel expense funding for an invited talk at a workshop that initiated the collaboration (http://beyond.mimuw.edu.pl/index.php). Accommodation funding for an invited talk/3-day research visit of staff member to University of Heidelberg (we contributed flights). Two research visits of 3 days each to our unit, to further collaboration (funded by Polish collaborators). In Jan 2014, a further research visit to our unit, which resulted in drafting a publication that is currently under revision for the journal Epidemiology and Infection. In August 2015, a further research visit to our unit, to plan next steps for this collaboration following publication DOI 10.1017/S0950268815002538.
Impact Application to EU for funding for research into developing evidence synthesis models for estimating HIV prevalence and incidence in Poland. Funding for a two day workshop on Evidence Synthesis for estimating HIV prevalence to take place in Warsaw Dec 2013. Multi-disciplinary - statisticians, mathematicians, epidemiologists. Publication, DOI 10.1017/S0950268815002538
Start Year 2012
 
Description Poland HIV collaboration 
Organisation University of Warsaw
Department Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics and Mechanics (MIM)
Country Poland 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Development of statistical models for HIV prevalence estimation. Statistical advice.
Collaborator Contribution Data provision, scientific research, epidemiological expertise. Travel expense funding for an invited talk at a workshop that initiated the collaboration (http://beyond.mimuw.edu.pl/index.php). Accommodation funding for an invited talk/3-day research visit of staff member to University of Heidelberg (we contributed flights). Two research visits of 3 days each to our unit, to further collaboration (funded by Polish collaborators). In Jan 2014, a further research visit to our unit, which resulted in drafting a publication that is currently under revision for the journal Epidemiology and Infection. In August 2015, a further research visit to our unit, to plan next steps for this collaboration following publication DOI 10.1017/S0950268815002538.
Impact Application to EU for funding for research into developing evidence synthesis models for estimating HIV prevalence and incidence in Poland. Funding for a two day workshop on Evidence Synthesis for estimating HIV prevalence to take place in Warsaw Dec 2013. Multi-disciplinary - statisticians, mathematicians, epidemiologists. Publication, DOI 10.1017/S0950268815002538
Start Year 2012
 
Description Politecnico di Milano 
Organisation Polytechnic University of Milan
Country Italy 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Performed analyses and contributed to writing papers.
Collaborator Contribution Provided data, performed some analyses and contributed to writing papers. A PhD student has started to work on this project, based at Politecnico di Milano. The work involves multi-state models with frailties for large administrative datasets, applied to hospital admission for heart failure.
Impact Ieva, Francesca, Christopher H. Jackson, and Linda D. Sharples. "Multi-State modelling of repeated hospitalisation and death in patients with Heart Failure: the use of large administrative databases in clinical epidemiology." Statistical methods in medical research (2015): 0962280215578777.
Start Year 2012
 
Description Politecnico di Milano 
Organisation University of Milan
Country Italy 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Performed analyses and contributed to writing papers.
Collaborator Contribution Provided data, performed some analyses and contributed to writing papers. A PhD student has started to work on this project, based at Politecnico di Milano. The work involves multi-state models with frailties for large administrative datasets, applied to hospital admission for heart failure.
Impact Ieva, Francesca, Christopher H. Jackson, and Linda D. Sharples. "Multi-State modelling of repeated hospitalisation and death in patients with Heart Failure: the use of large administrative databases in clinical epidemiology." Statistical methods in medical research (2015): 0962280215578777.
Start Year 2012
 
Description Thailand influenza/secondary bacterial infection collaboration with Mahidol Oxford Topical Medicine Research Unit 
Organisation Wellcome Trust
Department Mahidol University-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Programme
Country Thailand 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Statistical analysis and expertise.
Collaborator Contribution Provision of data. Microbiological, epidemiological and mathematical modelling expertise
Impact Multi-disciplinary collaboration researching the interaction of respiratory viruses and secondary bacterial infection. Includes statisticians, mathematical modellers, microbiologists and epidemiologists.
Start Year 2016
 
Description University of Bristol 
Organisation Public Health England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Scientific collaboration
Collaborator Contribution Scientific collaboration /practical contribution
Impact PMIDs: 18349037; 19036917; 19036912; 20187928; 20437454;20595255; Goubar et al; Presanis et al; 20962617; Other publications: Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs, The primary prevention of hepatitis C among injecting drug users, Home Office, 2009 (De Angelis D contributor)
Start Year 2006
 
Description University of Bristol 
Organisation University of Bristol
Department School of Social and Community Medicine
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Scientific collaboration
Collaborator Contribution Scientific collaboration /practical contribution
Impact PMIDs: 18349037; 19036917; 19036912; 20187928; 20437454;20595255; Goubar et al; Presanis et al; 20962617; Other publications: Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs, The primary prevention of hepatitis C among injecting drug users, Home Office, 2009 (De Angelis D contributor)
Start Year 2006
 
Description University of Bristol 
Organisation University of Bristol
Department School of Social and Community Medicine
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Scientific collaboration
Collaborator Contribution Scientific collaboration /practical contribution
Impact PMIDs: 18349037; 19036917; 19036912; 20187928; 20437454;20595255; Goubar et al; Presanis et al; 20962617; Other publications: Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs, The primary prevention of hepatitis C among injecting drug users, Home Office, 2009 (De Angelis D contributor)
Start Year 2006
 
Description University of Hong Kong - influenza 
Organisation University of Hong Kong
Department School of Public Health and Department of Community Medicine
Country Hong Kong 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Staff member (Anne Presanis) providing expert advice on evidence synthesis models of influenza severity, in particular for avian H7N9 influenza.
Collaborator Contribution Prof Ben Cowling's group contributed travel funding (flights & accommodation) for AP to visit his group in Hong Kong for 3 days in June 2015, to give an invited seminar and to advise on various evidence synthesis models they are working on for estimating influenza severity.
Impact Following the research visit to Hong Kong University, Prof Cowling, as chair of the organising committee of the ISIRV 2016 workshop (https://isirv2016.influenza.hk/), invited AP to give a talk at the workshop "Model criticism for a Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate influenza severity" in January 2016. AP's travel expenses were funded by the workshop.
Start Year 2015
 
Description University of Nottingham 
Organisation Public Health England
Department Centre of Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Statistical expertise
Collaborator Contribution Expertise in epidemic modellingEpidemiological expertise
Impact PhD studentship PMID 23592544
Start Year 2009
 
Description University of Nottingham 
Organisation University of Nottingham
Department School of Mathematical Sciences Nottingham
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Statistical expertise
Collaborator Contribution Expertise in epidemic modellingEpidemiological expertise
Impact PhD studentship PMID 23592544
Start Year 2009
 
Description University of Warwick 
Organisation University of Warwick
Department School of Life Sciences
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution scientific Collaboration
Collaborator Contribution Scientific Collaboration
Impact Collaborative work ongoing and one paper under submission: Birrell PJ, De Angelis D, Wernisch L, Tom BDM, Roberts GO, Pebody RG. Efficient real-time monitoring of an emerging influenza epidemic: how feasible? (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series C))
Start Year 2007
 
Description Armitage Lectures 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Annual workshop and lecture created and hosted by the MRC Biostatistics Unit, to honour the immense contributions of Professor Peter Armitage who was at the unit from 1947 to 1961, and whose work is recognised throughout the world as achieving a successful balance between methodological rigour and applied commonsense, to which all statisticians aspire.

An eminent medical statistician visits for a week and works with members of the unit. The highlight is the Armitage Lecture, where more than 100 delegates attend. This event raises the unit research profile and creates new collaborations.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity Pre-2006,2006,2007,2008,
URL https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/news-and-events/armitage-lectureships-and-workshops/
 
Description Article in Quanticate online news blog about BAYES 2018: Bayesian Biostatistics Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Online news blog written by attendee at BAYES 2018: Bayesian Biostatistics Workshop (organised by the BSU), discussing key topics covered in workshop
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.quanticate.com/blog/bayesian-approaches-to-use-historical-data-in-the-analysis-of-clinic...
 
Description Article on NHS health checks programme 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Article on new research on NHS health checks programme which Chris Jackson is PI on.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Article on new approaches to Bayesian data science 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Article published in Lancaster University online news blog about research into new approaches to Bayesian data science, which Daniela De Angelis is collaborator on.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description BAYES 2018: Bayesian Biostatistics Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Lead organiser and scientific committee chair (Daniela De Angelis) for BAYES 2018: Bayesian Biostatistics Workshop covering various themes around bayesian biostatistics research. Workshop attracted 109 delegates from the UK and internationally. Keynote speakers came from UK and USA. Event raised profile of Unit and has initiated new research collaborations.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Cambridge Science Festival 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Stand at Cambridge Science Festival 2019, presenting two interactive hands-on activities; one explaining probability and risk, and the other on precision medicine. Reaching out to 500+ audience members over 1 day.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Careers talk at secondary school 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact Paul Birrell visited Mill Hill County High School in London to discuss careers in maths and statistics and steps to achieve those career goals. http://www.mhchs.org.uk/visit-from-dr-paul-birrell/36671.html
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Case study: 'Devising and applying statistical methods to underpin national HIV policy' 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Programme Leader, Daniela De Angelis, wrote a case study for the 'Public Health: Research into Policy' project on how she engages with policy through providing UK official estimates on HIV prevalence, for the 'HIV in the UK' report. Case study called 'Devising and applying statistical methods to underpin national HIV policy'
http://www.iph.cam.ac.uk/public-health-policy/case-studies/hivstatistics/
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.iph.cam.ac.uk/public-health-policy/case-studies/hivstatistics/
 
Description Statistics Meets Public Health talk 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Programme Leader, Daniel;a De Angelis, gave talk as part of 'Statistics Meets Public Health' seminar series - a series of non-technical talks, aiming to illustrate the links between statistical research and public health, targetted to lay audiences and free to attend.

Daniela gave talk on 'Shaping Public Health Policy on Infectious Diseases through Evidence Synthesis' to approximately 40 audience members.

Future talks in seminar series arranged.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017