Evidence Synthesis to inform health related decision making
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Cambridge
Department Name: UNLISTED
Abstract
In order to make decisions about management of diseases it is necessary to understand how diseases develop and spread and how interventions will impact on them. This often requires us to identify and combine many sources of information so that we can take robust decisions relevant to the clinical or public health context of interest. For example, when the objective is to control an infectious disease in the community we need to know how many people are affected by the disease (prevalence) and in which age groups; how it is currently spreading (incidence); how it is transmitted (transmission and infectivity); and the geographical location where the disease is more prevalent. This information will feed into relevant interventions, such as vaccination or treatment. This would require understanding to which subgroups of the population vaccination should be given first, or for which patients is a particular treatment cost-effective.
Data on each of these aspects will typically come from several studies, possibly with different formats and not directly interpretable. Robust statistical methods are then needed to integrate such multiplicity of evidence in a coherent manner to make it useful input for decision making.
Data on each of these aspects will typically come from several studies, possibly with different formats and not directly interpretable. Robust statistical methods are then needed to integrate such multiplicity of evidence in a coherent manner to make it useful input for decision making.
Technical Summary
Decisions regarding health policy are being increasingly informed by the synthesis of evidence from multiple sources.
Often available evidence comes from a multitude of heterogeneous sources or studies, may be incomplete, biased, refers to populations different from those of interest, and/or is sparse. Robust statistical methods and epidemiological understanding are then needed to integrate such a patchwork of evidence in a coherent manner to make it useful for decision making. Approaches to such syntheses range from meta-analysis through generalised evidence to decision theoretic methods required for advising on health policies.
Our work focuses on developing and statistical methodology to design, fit and evaluate complex models for evidence synthesis.
Outstanding methodological challenges include statistical standard setting for inclusion of data sources, model development and criticism, including handling of heterogeneity and biases, detecting, quantifying and resolving possible inconsistency between sources and development of appropriate and accessible computational approaches.
Further, the abundance of emerging data sources available, as a result of investment in e-health, means that it is more important than ever to apply rigorous scientific principles to develop models which have a sound and relevant evidence base. In addition, as new types of biomedical information, such as genetic and genomic data, become available, its integration into existing evidence synthesis frameworks will become increasingly important.
Our work is inspired by, and applied to, substantive problems in medical research with particular emphasis on infectious diseases, addictions and evaluation of public health interventions.
Often available evidence comes from a multitude of heterogeneous sources or studies, may be incomplete, biased, refers to populations different from those of interest, and/or is sparse. Robust statistical methods and epidemiological understanding are then needed to integrate such a patchwork of evidence in a coherent manner to make it useful for decision making. Approaches to such syntheses range from meta-analysis through generalised evidence to decision theoretic methods required for advising on health policies.
Our work focuses on developing and statistical methodology to design, fit and evaluate complex models for evidence synthesis.
Outstanding methodological challenges include statistical standard setting for inclusion of data sources, model development and criticism, including handling of heterogeneity and biases, detecting, quantifying and resolving possible inconsistency between sources and development of appropriate and accessible computational approaches.
Further, the abundance of emerging data sources available, as a result of investment in e-health, means that it is more important than ever to apply rigorous scientific principles to develop models which have a sound and relevant evidence base. In addition, as new types of biomedical information, such as genetic and genomic data, become available, its integration into existing evidence synthesis frameworks will become increasingly important.
Our work is inspired by, and applied to, substantive problems in medical research with particular emphasis on infectious diseases, addictions and evaluation of public health interventions.
Organisations
- University of Cambridge (Lead Research Organisation)
- University of Milan (Collaboration)
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) (Collaboration)
- University of Warwick (Collaboration)
- United Kingdom Research and Innovation (Collaboration)
- University of Hong Kong (Collaboration)
- Stellenbosch University (Collaboration)
- National Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM) (Collaboration)
- Pasteur Institute, Paris (Collaboration)
- University Medical Center Utrecht (UMC) (Collaboration)
- NATIONAL CENTRE FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH (Collaboration)
- CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST (Collaboration)
- Office for National Statistics (Collaboration)
- University of Bristol (Collaboration)
- Polish National Institute of Public Health (Collaboration)
- University College London (Collaboration)
- HARVARD UNIVERSITY (Collaboration)
- PUBLIC HEALTH ENGLAND (Collaboration)
- Novartis (Collaboration)
- UK HEALTH SECURITY AGENCY (Collaboration)
- Wellcome Trust (Collaboration)
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (Collaboration)
- National Institute for Health Research (Collaboration)
- IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON (Collaboration)
- Polytechnic University of Milan (Collaboration)
- UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD (Collaboration)
- Royal College of General Practitioners (Collaboration)
- University of the West of England (Collaboration)
- International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) (Collaboration)
- National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal) (Collaboration)
- University of Warsaw (Collaboration)
- British Association for Sexual Health and HIV (Collaboration)
People |
ORCID iD |
Publications
Abdul Aziz N
(2023)
Risk of severe outcomes among SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 cases compared to BA.2 cases in England
in Journal of Infection
Aggarwal D
(2022)
Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in a UK university identifies dynamics of transmission.
in Nature communications
Aldred R
(2021)
How does mode of travel affect risks posed to other road users? An analysis of English road fatality data, incorporating gender and road type
in Injury Prevention
Allen H
(2021)
Does being on HIV antiretroviral therapy increase the risk of syphilis? An analysis of a large national cohort of MSM living with HIV in England 2009-2016.
in Sexually transmitted infections
Angelis D
(2019)
Handbook of Infectious Disease Data Analysis
Barnard S
(2022)
Methods for modelling excess mortality across England during the COVID-19 pandemic.
in Statistical methods in medical research
Birrell P
(2021)
Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19 dynamics in England: the first wave.
in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
| Description | COVID-19 Serology SAGE subgroup |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Membership of a guideline committee |
| Description | Citation of BSU research on nowcasting and forecasting COVID-19 |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in systematic reviews |
| URL | https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3259 |
| Description | Eliminating HIV through evidence-based prevention strategies |
| Geographic Reach | Europe |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
| Impact | For more than a decade, researchers in Cambridge and at Public Health England (PHE) (and its predecessor organisations) have worked closely together to develop and deliver evidence-based approaches to support control strategies for HIV [1-5,7]. The approaches - involving intensification of prevention policies over time, informed by the estimates resulting from the Cambridge methods - have been associated with reductions in HIV transmission and in undiagnosed infections and late diagnoses. They have helped cut infection rates, with numbers of undiagnosed infections reduced by thousands in England alone. Adopted by the UK and other governments, these approaches are essential to the tracking of HIV in populations, the development and implementation of strategies to reduce HIV spread, and the rapid evaluation of those strategies - all activities that are fundamental to disease control. Cambridge research has therefore contributed significantly to the remarkable improvements seen in the quality and quantity of life for thousands of HIV-infected individuals, to reductions in HIV transmission, and to savings in healthcare costs, placing the UK on track to eliminate transmission of HIV by 2030. |
| URL | https://results2021.ref.ac.uk/impact/bcfbe48e-dc4d-42a0-8278-c4ca041e5080?page=1 |
| Description | Expert Group for European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control |
| Geographic Reach | Europe |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| URL | https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/ecdc-expert-consultation-implementation-and-evaluati... |
| Description | HCV prevalence estimates, 2007 - present |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
| Impact | New methods for HCV prevalence estimates ; Recognition for the MRC and the unit ; First robust quantification of HCV burden. Annual reports produced: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/477702/HIV_in_the_UK_2015_report.pdf https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/337115/HCV_in_the_UK_2014_24_July.pdf http://www.hpa.org.uk/webw/HPAweb&HPAwebStandard/HPAweb_C/1317135237627 http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/BloodBorneInfections/1107HepCintheUK2011report/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/BloodBorneInfections/0912HepatitisC/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/BloodBorneInfections/0812HepatitisC/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/BloodBorneInfections/0712HepatitisCannualreport/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/BloodBorneInfections/0612HepatitisCinEnglandAnupdate2006/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/BloodBorneInfections/0512HepatitisCAnnualReport2005/ |
| URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hepatitis-c-in-the-uk |
| Description | HIV prevalence estimates |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
| Impact | New methods for HIV prevalence estimates; Recognition for the MRC and the Unit; Estimates contribute to HIV testing policy in the UK; In 2011, estimates contributed to the House of Lords Select Committee on HIV/AIDS (http://www.parliament.uk/HIVSELECT). 9 annual reports 2005-present produced: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hiv-in-the-united-kingdom http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/1211HIVintheUK2012/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/1111HIVintheUK2011report/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/1011HIVUK2010Report/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0911HIVUK2009Report/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0811hivUK/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0711TestingTimesHIVandSTIsReport/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0611ComplexPictureUKHIVSTI/ http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0511MappingHIVandSTIinUK2005/ |
| URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hiv-in-the-united-kingdom |
| Description | Infected Blood Inquiry |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| URL | https://www.infectedbloodinquiry.org.uk/sites/default/files/documents/Expert%20Report%20to%20the%20I... |
| Description | Informing the national HIV Action Plan and its Monitoring and Evaluation Framework |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
| Impact | Our estimates of HIV prevalence and incidence have been used to inform the writing of (and are reported in) the HIV Action Plan (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/towards-zero-the-hiv-action-plan-for-england-2022-to-2025) setting out how England will achieve the target of ending transmission of HIV by 2030. Both the prevalence and incidence estimates have since also been used in the first Monitoring and Evaluation Framework (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hiv-monitoring-and-evaluation-framework/hiv-action-plan-monitoring-and-evaluation-framework) to monitor progress towards this target. Our estimates of the number of people living with undiagnosed HIV is one of the key metrics being used to monitor progress. |
| URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/towards-zero-the-hiv-action-plan-for-england-2022-to-2025 |
| Description | Joint Biosecurity Centre Data Science Advisory Board |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/joint-biosecurity-centre |
| Description | Lords Science and Technology Committee - The Science of COVID-19 |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Dr Paul Birrell was a witness for a Lords Select Committee on the topic 'The Science of COVID-19', discussing the nowcasting and forecasting work led by the Unit and what the research tells us about the epidemic in the UK so far. |
| URL | https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/c36d74b3-2fe2-4309-8554-f50fe966f7a3 |
| Description | MRC COVID-19 Agile Panel |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Membership of a guideline committee |
| Description | Member of Cabinet Office round table on COVID-19 outbreak |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Sitting on UK Cabinet Office meetings about the COVID-19 outbreak, providing updates and information about latest statistical modelling of the virus, to help government understand current issues and development of the epidemic. |
| Description | Member of the RSS COVID-19 Taskforce |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Membership of a guideline committee |
| Impact | Actions of Taskforce are influencing policy i.e. initiating inquiry into how government are using COVID-19 data to make policy decisions |
| Description | National and International government advisory groups |
| Geographic Reach | Europe |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| Impact | Severity estimates for COVID-19, including probability of ICU admission given hospital admission, probabilities of death given hospital admission (with and without ICU admission), probabilities of discharge given hospital admission, lengths of stay in hospital and ICU, and relative severity (risks of hospitalisation and death) by variant, have regularly been provided to Public Health England's (PHE)/UKHSA Joint Modelling Team, Variant Technical Group and to the SPI-MO and SAGE advisory groups, providing evidence to inform public health decisions. |
| URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefings |
| Description | New results on COVID-19 Nowcasting and Forecasting leads to policy decision on school openings |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
| Impact | New report on Nowcasting and Forecasting of COVID-19 indicating high infection rates in the North West region, led to a change in decision about schools re-opening following lockdown. It was decided to continue to keep schools in that region closed. |
| URL | https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/tackling-covid-19/nowcasting-and-forecasting-of-covid-19/ |
| Description | Nowcasting and Forecasting of COVID-19 - Influencing opening of dental practice |
| Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
| Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
| Impact | Results of Nowcasting and Forecasting of COVID-19 is helping dental practice to organise patient recall based on risk profile and in order to open the service based on the expected epidemic pattern. |
| Description | Nowcasting and Forecasting of COVID19 - Influencing business planning for Nestle UK |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
| Impact | Nestle UK are using the latest results on our nowcasting and forecasting of COVID19 to make planning decisions for their business. |
| Description | Parliamentary and Scientific Committee - 'COVID-19 - The Statistics and the Science Underlying Them' |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Description | Regione Lombardia Welfare Directorate |
| Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
| Policy Influence Type | Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health |
| Impact | A technical report describing estimates of COVID-19 severe burden in the Italian region of Lombardy (risks of competing outcomes in hospital and the community, including hospital admission, discharge/recovery, ICU admission and death, lengths of stay in hospital and ICU, times to recovery in the community) was provided to public health officials at the Welfare Directorate of Regione Lombardia, to inform their resource planning for current and future waves of COVID-19. |
| Description | SIREN Scotland Steering Committee |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Membership of a guideline committee |
| Description | SPI-M - Advising government on coronavirus outbreak |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Membership of a guideline committee |
| Impact | Participating in SIPM committee for coronavirus that feeds into the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies. Government advice is helping to inform general public in the UK about the disease outbreak and possible/predicted severity. |
| URL | https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public |
| Description | UKRI COVID-19 Rapid Response Expert Panel |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Membership of a guideline committee |
| Description | A capacity-building platform for advancing biostatistics in Ethiopoa, Kenya and Malawi-Lancaster University |
| Amount | £6,000 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | EP/T003677/1 |
| Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 04/2020 |
| End | 03/2021 |
| Description | Agreement for Performance of Work - Emergency - COVID-19 severity assessment in WHO Europe member states, evidence synthesis |
| Amount | $17,595 (USD) |
| Funding ID | 2022/1201685-0 |
| Organisation | World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | Denmark |
| Start | 01/2022 |
| End | 04/2022 |
| Description | Building capacity for statistical epidemiology in Ethiopia-Alborada Fund 2019 application |
| Amount | £20,000 (GBP) |
| Organisation | Cambridge-Africa Alborada Trust |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 01/2020 |
| End | 07/2020 |
| Description | COVID Modelling Consortium: quantitative epidemiological predictions in response to an evolving pandemic |
| Amount | £213,214 (GBP) |
| Organisation | United Kingdom Research and Innovation |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 11/2020 |
| End | 05/2022 |
| Description | EPSRC grant "New Approaches to Bayesian Data Science: Tackling Challenges from the Health Sciences" |
| Amount | £2,950,000 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | EP/R018561/1 |
| Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 04/2018 |
| End | 03/2022 |
| Description | Estimating severity from multiple data sources using Bayesian evidence synthesis |
| Amount | £180,599 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | MC_PC_19074 |
| Organisation | Medical Research Council (MRC) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 04/2020 |
| End | 03/2022 |
| Description | GCRF Travel funding-Building capacity for statistical analysis of the HIV epidemic in Ethiopia by learning from the UK experience |
| Amount | £7,660 (GBP) |
| Organisation | University of Cambridge |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 02/2019 |
| End | 01/2020 |
| Description | GLOBAL AND LOCAL HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF TRANSPORT |
| Amount | £27,815 (GBP) |
| Organisation | European Commission |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | European Union (EU) |
| Start | 06/2019 |
| End | 05/2024 |
| Description | Modelling HCV infection and treatment impact through serological surveillance data (PHE PhD Studentship) |
| Amount | £85,339 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | SLAJ/080 |
| Organisation | Public Health England |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 10/2021 |
| End | 09/2024 |
| Description | NIHR HPRU |
| Amount | £350,000 (GBP) |
| Organisation | National Institute for Health Research |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | |
| Description | NIHR HPRU Behavioural Science and Evaluation |
| Amount | £223,705 (GBP) |
| Organisation | National Institute for Health Research |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 04/2020 |
| End | 03/2025 |
| Description | NIHR PRP (ODA-02-01) ODA: Epidemiology for Vaccinology |
| Amount | £249,342 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | PR-OD-1017-20006 |
| Organisation | National Institute for Health Research |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 04/2018 |
| End | 03/2022 |
| Description | NIHR grant "Evaluating the Population Impact of Hepatitis C Direct Acting Antiviral Treatment as Prevention for Peoplw Who Inject Drugs" (EPIToPe) |
| Amount | £170,037 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | RP-PG-0616-20008 |
| Organisation | National Institute for Health Research |
| Department | Programme Grants for Applied Research (PGfAR) |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 02/2018 |
| End | 01/2023 |
| Description | Public Health England DDA salary support |
| Amount | £235,000 (GBP) |
| Organisation | Public Health England |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 04/2016 |
| End | 03/2021 |
| Description | Public Health England DDA salary support |
| Amount | £387,078 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | SLAJ/002 |
| Organisation | Public Health England |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 04/2021 |
| End | 03/2026 |
| Description | Public Health England Studentship |
| Amount | £78,000 (GBP) |
| Organisation | Public Health England |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 04/2016 |
| End | 03/2019 |
| Description | York- HEE grant- Jackson |
| Amount | £15,938 (GBP) |
| Organisation | Medical Research Council (MRC) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 11/2016 |
| End | 10/2018 |
| Title | Real-Time Modelling for the COVID-19 Pandemic |
| Description | Modelling code and methodology used by Public Health England (UKHSA) to produce official estimates of the COVID-19 pandemic evolution ( e.g. R numbers; number of new infections over time, attack rates) and to forecast deaths and hospitalisation by age group and regions. The code is run both at the UoC and the UKHSA. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2020 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Results from this tool have been provided weekly since 2020 to governamental Advisory Groups (SPIM) and Cabinet Office to inform policies; distributed to PHE (UKHSA), the NHS and regional UKHSA teams. These results have informed planning (e.g. the "National guidance for the recovery of elective surgery in children" published by the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health) and have been used to estimate the number of infections and deaths averted by vaccination (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccine-surveillance-report). They continue to provide evidence on the pandemic in the current living with COVID-19 era. |
| URL | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2020.0279 |
| Title | CD4-staged back-calculation model to estimate HIV incidence |
| Description | Multi-state model based on stages defined by CD4 counts representing progression of HIV disease, observed new diagnoses, and observed CD4 counts at diagnosis to estimate ("back-calculate") HIV incidence (rate of new infection) from the diagnoses. The 2021 published version is a significant development of previous year's versions (https://doi.org/10.1016/S2352-3018(21)00044-8). |
| Type Of Material | Data analysis technique |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Used by the UK Health Security Agency to produce official estimates of HIV incidence in gay men in England for their annual reports. Estimates used by the HIV Commission and HIV Action Plan to monitor progress towards the goal of eliminating HIV transmission by 2030. |
| URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/towards-zero-the-hiv-action-plan-for-england-2022-to-2025 |
| Title | Estimation of relative risks of hospital admission and death by COVID-19 variant |
| Description | Survival modelling (stratified Cox proportional hazards) to estimate the relative risks of severe events among COVID-19 cases by variant, e.g. Alpha vs pandemic original strain; Delta vs Alpha; Delta AY4.2 vs other Delta; Omicron BA.1 vs Delta. Model and code for model shared with UKHSA collaborators as knowledge transfer. Protocol and reuseable code for the model being drafted for sharing with WHO Europe member states to carry out similar analyses. Update March 2023: Protocol and preprint for standardised analyses across WHO Europe member states available here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.05541 and the accompanying code is publicy available here: https://github.com/TommyNyberg/variant_severity |
| Type Of Material | Data analysis technique |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Presentation of resulting estimates to national and international government advisory groups. Four papers published or in press. Update March 2023: Standardised protocol, models and code used by several WHO Europe member states to analyse relative severity in their countries; and estimates pooled across Europe, as reported in the preprint linked above. |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.05541 |
| Title | MPES model of HIV prevalence |
| Description | Statistical multi-parameter evidence synthesis (MPES) model to estimate HIV prevalence in the United Kingdom, by risk group, age, region, sex and year. The 2021 published version (https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00142-0) is a substantial development of previous years' versions. |
| Type Of Material | Data analysis technique |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Use as the UK Health Security Agency's official model to produce yearly HIV prevalence estimates for the United Kingdom. Estimates resulting from the model have been used by the HIV Commission and the HIV Action Plan to monitor progress towards elimination of HIV transmission by 2030. |
| URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hiv-annual-data-tables |
| Title | Real-Time Modelling for the COVID-19 Pandemic |
| Description | Modelling code and methodology (https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0279) used by Public Health England (UKHSA) to produce official estimates of the COVID-19 pandemic evolution ( e.g. R numbers; number of new infections over time, attack rates) and to forecast deaths and hospitalisation by age group and regions. The code is run both at the UoC and the UKHSA. |
| Type Of Material | Data analysis technique |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Results from this tool have been provided weekly since 2020 to governamental Advisory Groups (SPIM) and Cabinet Office to inform policies; distributed to PHE (UKHSA), the NHS and regional UKHSA teams. These results have informed planning (e.g. the "National guidance for the recovery of elective surgery in children" published by the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health) and have been used to estimate the number of infections and deaths averted by vaccination (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccine-surveillance-report). They continue to provide evidence on the pandemic in the current living with COVID-19 era. |
| URL | https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/tackling-covid-19/nowcasting-and-forecasting-of-covid-19/ |
| Description | ADAGIO - Adaptive Designs And Genomics In Outbreaks - NIHR PRP (ODA-02-01) ODA: Epidemiology for Vaccinology |
| Organisation | Harvard University |
| Department | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health |
| Country | United States |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | We have collaborated to obtain funding from the NIHR call on Epidemiology for Vaccinology, to work on a joint project improving vaccine trials in emerging epidemics through the use of genomic data and novel adaptive designs. The project brings together several different areas of expertise. Our contribution is on real-time epidemic modelling, adaptive designs and Bayesian decision theory. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Harvard contribute expertise on the use of sequence data in epidemic modelling. Oxford contribute expertise on epidemic modelling and clinical trials in emerging epidemics. |
| Impact | The initial output has been obtaining the NIHR grant to fund the work (NIHR PRP (ODA-02-01) ODA: Epidemiology for Vaccinology). |
| Start Year | 2017 |
| Description | ADAGIO - Adaptive Designs And Genomics In Outbreaks - NIHR PRP (ODA-02-01) ODA: Epidemiology for Vaccinology |
| Organisation | University of Oxford |
| Department | Nuffield Department of Medicine |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | We have collaborated to obtain funding from the NIHR call on Epidemiology for Vaccinology, to work on a joint project improving vaccine trials in emerging epidemics through the use of genomic data and novel adaptive designs. The project brings together several different areas of expertise. Our contribution is on real-time epidemic modelling, adaptive designs and Bayesian decision theory. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Harvard contribute expertise on the use of sequence data in epidemic modelling. Oxford contribute expertise on epidemic modelling and clinical trials in emerging epidemics. |
| Impact | The initial output has been obtaining the NIHR grant to fund the work (NIHR PRP (ODA-02-01) ODA: Epidemiology for Vaccinology). |
| Start Year | 2017 |
| Description | Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation HIV Modelling Consortium |
| Organisation | University of Stellenbosch |
| Department | South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis |
| Country | South Africa |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Statistical analysis and expertise in modelling early HIV infection. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Providing simulated data, epidemiological and mathematical expertise and benchmarking other methods. Provided funds to allow me to attend workshops for the consortium in Boston and Rome 2012-2013. |
| Impact | Paper in preparation. Multi-disciplinary - statisticians, mathematicians and epidemiologists. |
| Start Year | 2012 |
| Description | Bristol/ Thom and Jackson |
| Organisation | University of Bristol |
| Department | School of Cellular and Molecular Medicine |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | TBC |
| Collaborator Contribution | TBC |
| Impact | None as yet |
| Start Year | 2016 |
| Description | CDC Global HIV/AIDS/TB Key Populations Group |
| Organisation | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) |
| Country | United States |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Statistical consultancy and dissemination of our evidence synthesis methods to CDC partners, leading to a new collaboration to apply these methods to the estimation of key population sizes and HIV prevalence in different countries around the world that CDC work with. Advice on the adoption of our methods to different countries/contexts/populations. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Introduction to CDC's country-specific partners who may want to adopt our methods for the estimation of key population sizes and HIV prevalence in their countries, provision of data. |
| Impact | Not yet. Multi-disciplinary collaboration - statistical advice provided by us, to epidemiologists and statistical epidemiologists working at CDC and at public health institutes in different countries that CDC work with. |
| Start Year | 2016 |
| Description | Cambridge / Imperial / UKHSA collaboration |
| Organisation | Imperial College London |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Statistical expertise; coding; paper writing |
| Collaborator Contribution | Data provision; epidemiological expertise; coding |
| Impact | Paper on relative severity of Omicron variant compared to Delta, in press in The Lancet (publication date 17th March 2022). |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | Cambridge / Imperial / UKHSA collaboration |
| Organisation | National Institute for Health Research |
| Department | Health Protection Research Unit for Modelling Methodology |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Statistical expertise; coding; paper writing |
| Collaborator Contribution | Data provision; epidemiological expertise; coding |
| Impact | Paper on relative severity of Omicron variant compared to Delta, in press in The Lancet (publication date 17th March 2022). |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | Cambridge / Imperial / UKHSA collaboration |
| Organisation | Public Health England |
| Department | Centre of Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Statistical expertise; coding; paper writing |
| Collaborator Contribution | Data provision; epidemiological expertise; coding |
| Impact | Paper on relative severity of Omicron variant compared to Delta, in press in The Lancet (publication date 17th March 2022). |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | Collaboration with Office National Statistics (ONS) Covid-19 Infection Study/UKHSA/Manchester University |
| Organisation | Office for National Statistics |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | This is a collaboration through the work of a PhD student to make full use of the data collected by the ONS CIS to monitor the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our contribution is on the development of statistical models that use ONS CIS to estimate the incidence of infection underlying the age and region specific prevalence estimates produced weekly by this study. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The partner provides data relevant epidemiological knolwedge |
| Impact | Work has been presented to various audiences and a PhD chapter is in preparation. |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | Dutch National Institute of Public Health (RIVM)/University of Utrecht |
| Organisation | National Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM) |
| Country | Netherlands |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Collaborators in a grant application and related research activities - we contribute statistical inference knowledge. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge on mathematical modelling of infectious disease methods |
| Impact | The collaboration involves statisticians, mathematical modellers and infectious disease epidemiologists |
| Start Year | 2013 |
| Description | Dutch National Institute of Public Health (RIVM)/University of Utrecht |
| Organisation | University Medical Center Utrecht (UMC) |
| Country | Netherlands |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Collaborators in a grant application and related research activities - we contribute statistical inference knowledge. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge on mathematical modelling of infectious disease methods |
| Impact | The collaboration involves statisticians, mathematical modellers and infectious disease epidemiologists |
| Start Year | 2013 |
| Description | ECDC project to estimate Hepatitis C prevalence in Croatia using Bayesian Evidence Synthesis |
| Organisation | European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) |
| Country | Sweden |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Expertise on burden estimation using Bayesian evidence synthesis. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Expertise on epidemiology of hepatitis C. |
| Impact | No outputs yet. |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Description | Genomic Collaboration with Cambridge University Hospital (Addenbrookes) |
| Organisation | Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | This Is a collaboration initiated during the COVID-19 pandemic to monitor SARS-Cov-2 spread in hospital combining epidemiological and sequence data. The contibution of my team has been to develop and implement the algorithms to estimate transmission. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Our partners have provided data (epidemiological and sequence), subject matter expertise as well as the development of relevant pipelines to automate the implementation of our methods. |
| Impact | A number of papers have resulted from this collaboration and there is a prospect for continuing this work involving other partneers (eg UCL) and applying for long term funding. |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | HPRU (Bristol, UCL, University of the West of England) |
| Organisation | Public Health England |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Contribute technical expertise (statistical ) to methods for evaluation of interventions. Linked to Public Health England |
| Collaborator Contribution | Mathematical modelling techniques - epidemiological /social science knowledge |
| Impact | No outputs yet. Still recruiting. |
| Start Year | 2014 |
| Description | HPRU (Bristol, UCL, University of the West of England) |
| Organisation | University College London |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Contribute technical expertise (statistical ) to methods for evaluation of interventions. Linked to Public Health England |
| Collaborator Contribution | Mathematical modelling techniques - epidemiological /social science knowledge |
| Impact | No outputs yet. Still recruiting. |
| Start Year | 2014 |
| Description | HPRU (Bristol, UCL, University of the West of England) |
| Organisation | University of Bristol |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Contribute technical expertise (statistical ) to methods for evaluation of interventions. Linked to Public Health England |
| Collaborator Contribution | Mathematical modelling techniques - epidemiological /social science knowledge |
| Impact | No outputs yet. Still recruiting. |
| Start Year | 2014 |
| Description | HPRU (Bristol, UCL, University of the West of England) |
| Organisation | University of the West of England |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Contribute technical expertise (statistical ) to methods for evaluation of interventions. Linked to Public Health England |
| Collaborator Contribution | Mathematical modelling techniques - epidemiological /social science knowledge |
| Impact | No outputs yet. Still recruiting. |
| Start Year | 2014 |
| Description | Harvard/Hong Kong collaboration |
| Organisation | Harvard University |
| Department | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health |
| Country | United States |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Statistical expertise and analysis, particularly in Bayesian evidence synthesis for severity estimation |
| Collaborator Contribution | Mathematical modelling and epidemiological expertise, particularly in infectious disease severity |
| Impact | Prior to this grant, this multi-disciplinary collaboration (statistics, mathematical modelling, infectious disease epidemiology) resulted in several publications on influenza severity. Both partners are co-investigators on this grant. |
| Start Year | 2009 |
| Description | Harvard/Hong Kong collaboration |
| Organisation | University of Hong Kong |
| Country | Hong Kong |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Statistical expertise and analysis, particularly in Bayesian evidence synthesis for severity estimation |
| Collaborator Contribution | Mathematical modelling and epidemiological expertise, particularly in infectious disease severity |
| Impact | Prior to this grant, this multi-disciplinary collaboration (statistics, mathematical modelling, infectious disease epidemiology) resulted in several publications on influenza severity. Both partners are co-investigators on this grant. |
| Start Year | 2009 |
| Description | Health Protection Agency |
| Organisation | Public Health England |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Development/ application of statistical methods to enable a better understanding of the HIV epidemic in the UK. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Data provision and epidemiological expertise |
| Impact | Many scientific publications. One PhD thesis completed. Reports: - Health Protection Agency, HIV in the United Kingdom: 2009 Report, London, United Kingdom, November 2009. Available from: http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/InfectiousDiseases/HIVAndSTIs/0911HIVUK2009Report/ (De Angelis D, Presanis AM, contributors). - Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections HIV, HIV in the United Kingdom: 2008 report, London, United Kingdom, November 2008. Available from: http://www.hpa.org.uk/hivuk2008 (De Angelis D, Presanis A, contributors). |
| Start Year | 2007 |
| Description | Health Protection Agency -Influenza |
| Organisation | Public Health England |
| Department | Centre of Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Statistical analysis and consultation Publication |
| Collaborator Contribution | Data provision and statistical expertise |
| Impact | PMIDs: 22042838; 21903689; 21087539, doi:10.1214/14-AOAS775 Papers under submission: Birrell PJ, Zhang X-S, Pebody RG, Gay NJ, De Angelis D. Reconstructing a spatially heterogeneous epidemic: Characterising the geographic spread of 2009 A/H1N1 infection in England (Scientific Reports) Birrell PJ, De Angelis D, Wernisch L, Tom BDM, Roberts GO, Pebody RG. Efficient real-time monitoring of an emerging influenza epidemic: how feasible? (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series C)) |
| Start Year | 2009 |
| Description | Health Protection Agency -Influenza |
| Organisation | Royal College of General Practitioners |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Statistical analysis and consultation Publication |
| Collaborator Contribution | Data provision and statistical expertise |
| Impact | PMIDs: 22042838; 21903689; 21087539, doi:10.1214/14-AOAS775 Papers under submission: Birrell PJ, Zhang X-S, Pebody RG, Gay NJ, De Angelis D. Reconstructing a spatially heterogeneous epidemic: Characterising the geographic spread of 2009 A/H1N1 infection in England (Scientific Reports) Birrell PJ, De Angelis D, Wernisch L, Tom BDM, Roberts GO, Pebody RG. Efficient real-time monitoring of an emerging influenza epidemic: how feasible? (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series C)) |
| Start Year | 2009 |
| Description | Health Protection Agency UK-HIV |
| Organisation | Public Health England |
| Department | Centre of Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Statistical expertise. Publications and reports. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Data provision and statistical expertise |
| Impact | PMID: 21087539; 21525422; 21422986; 20962617; 19081004; 22039196; 21932033 Reports: The UK Collaborative Group for HIV and STI surveillance. 2005. Mapping the issues. HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in the United Kingdom:2005 The UK Collaborative Group for HIV and STI surveillance. 2006. A Complex picture. HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in the United Kingdom:2006 The UK Collaborative Group for HIV and STI surveillance. 2007. Testing times. HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in the United Kingdom:2007 Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. HIV in the United Kingdom: 2008 report (www.hpa.org.uk/hivuk2008) Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. HIV in the United Kingdom: 2009 report (www.hpa.org.uk/hivuk2009) Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. HIV in the United Kingdom: 2010 report (www.hpa.org.uk/hivuk2010) |
| Description | Health Protection Agency- HCV |
| Organisation | Public Health England |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Statistical analysis and consultation Publications and reports |
| Collaborator Contribution | Statistical input and data provision |
| Impact | PMIDs: 21875456; 21708792; 19546152; 19036917; 19036912 Reports: Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. 2005. Hepatitis C in England; the first Health Protection Agency Annual Report. 2005 Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. 2006. Hepatitis C in England; an update. 2006 Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. 2007. Hepatitis C in England; an update. 2007 Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. 2008. Hepatitis C in the UK 2008 Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. 2009. Hepatitis C in the UK 2009 Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. 2011. Hepatitis C in the UK 2011 |
| Description | IARC - Martyn Plummer |
| Organisation | International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) |
| Country | France |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Providing applications which motivate development of further modules in the software JAGS. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Development of a module in the software JAGS to combine one of DDA's PhD student's C++ code with JAGS. |
| Impact | None yet, software module still under development. Joint publications in progress. |
| Start Year | 2014 |
| Description | Institute Pasteur/PHE respiratory virus and secondary bacterial infection collaboration |
| Organisation | Pasteur Institute, Paris |
| Department | Laboratory of Pharmacoepidemiology and Infectious Diseases |
| Country | France |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | Statistical expertise on evidence synthesis and time series modelling. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Provision of data, epidemiological expertise. |
| Impact | Not yet. Multidisciplinary collaboration, comprising statisticians, mathematical modellers and epidemiologists. |
| Start Year | 2017 |
| Description | Institute Pasteur/PHE respiratory virus and secondary bacterial infection collaboration |
| Organisation | Public Health England |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Statistical expertise on evidence synthesis and time series modelling. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Provision of data, epidemiological expertise. |
| Impact | Not yet. Multidisciplinary collaboration, comprising statisticians, mathematical modellers and epidemiologists. |
| Start Year | 2017 |
| Description | JUNIPER (Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research) Consortium |
| Organisation | United Kingdom Research and Innovation |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Contributed statistical input; knowledge of pathogen genomics; estimates of severity. Advertised and appointed a post-doc to analyse SARS-CoV-2 sequence data to start in May 2021. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The JUNIPER Consortium consists of teams and research groups involved in the current effort to generate forecasts of the pandemic to inform the SPI-M and SAGE advisory groups, and the funding will support these teams in their continued forecasting and prediction roles. The consortium aims to build national capacity, train the next generation of epidemic modellers, and develop their modelling capacity. Work has until now focussed on hotspot detection and schools/universities. |
| Impact | None yet |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | NATSAL |
| Organisation | National Centre for Social Research |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | Statistical modelling and expertise. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Provision of data to contribute to evidence syntheses to estimate prevalence of HIV and HCV. |
| Impact | HIV and HCV annual reports from Public Health England. |
| Description | NATSAL |
| Organisation | University College London |
| Department | School of Life and Medical Sciences |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Statistical modelling and expertise. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Provision of data to contribute to evidence syntheses to estimate prevalence of HIV and HCV. |
| Impact | HIV and HCV annual reports from Public Health England. |
| Description | Novartis (David Ohlssen) |
| Organisation | Novartis |
| Country | Global |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | Further development of statistical methodology to detect/measure conflicting evidence initially developed by David Ohlssen when he was a Unit member. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Discussion, provision of examples, co-authorship. |
| Impact | Publication, DOI 10.1214/13-STS426 Contributed talk to a conference (ISBA, July 2014). Invited talk at a conference (JSM, August 2015). A second paper in draft. |
| Start Year | 2011 |
| Description | PHE/UKHSA COVID-19 collaboration |
| Organisation | Public Health England |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Statistical expertise & analysis, as a member of the PHE/UKHSA Joint Modelling Team, one of their cells in the national response to the COVID-19 pandemic. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Provision of data, statistical and mathematical modelling expertise, one senior member of the PHE/UKHSA Joint Modelling Team is a co-Investigator on this grant, epidemiological and public health surveillance expertise via the PHE/UKHSA Epidemiology and Surveillance Cells of the COVID-19 response. |
| Impact | Three papers have resulted from this multi-disciplinary collaboration, two are under revision for re-submission to Statistical Methods in Medical Research, one has been submitted to the BMJ. Crucially, results from this collaboration on the severity of COVID-19 have been regularly discussed at the PHE Joint Modelling Team meetings, and sent to the governernment advisory groups SPI-M (Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modelling) and SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) as evidence informing the government response. Several co-Investigators on this grant are members of SPI-M. 2022 update: several further papers have resulted assessing the relative severity of different COVID-19 variants, presented regularly to the UKHSA Variant Technical Group, reported in UKHSA Variant Technical Briefings, and sent to SPI-M. |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Poland HIV collaboration |
| Organisation | Polish National Institute of Public Health |
| Country | Poland |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Development of statistical models for HIV prevalence estimation. Statistical advice. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Data provision, scientific research, epidemiological expertise. Travel expense funding for an invited talk at a workshop that initiated the collaboration (http://beyond.mimuw.edu.pl/index.php). Accommodation funding for an invited talk/3-day research visit of staff member to University of Heidelberg (we contributed flights). Two research visits of 3 days each to our unit, to further collaboration (funded by Polish collaborators). In Jan 2014, a further research visit to our unit, which resulted in drafting a publication that is currently under revision for the journal Epidemiology and Infection. In August 2015, a further research visit to our unit, to plan next steps for this collaboration following publication DOI 10.1017/S0950268815002538. |
| Impact | Application to EU for funding for research into developing evidence synthesis models for estimating HIV prevalence and incidence in Poland. Funding for a two day workshop on Evidence Synthesis for estimating HIV prevalence to take place in Warsaw Dec 2013. Multi-disciplinary - statisticians, mathematicians, epidemiologists. Publication, DOI 10.1017/S0950268815002538 |
| Start Year | 2012 |
| Description | Poland HIV collaboration |
| Organisation | University of Warsaw |
| Department | Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics and Mechanics (MIM) |
| Country | Poland |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Development of statistical models for HIV prevalence estimation. Statistical advice. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Data provision, scientific research, epidemiological expertise. Travel expense funding for an invited talk at a workshop that initiated the collaboration (http://beyond.mimuw.edu.pl/index.php). Accommodation funding for an invited talk/3-day research visit of staff member to University of Heidelberg (we contributed flights). Two research visits of 3 days each to our unit, to further collaboration (funded by Polish collaborators). In Jan 2014, a further research visit to our unit, which resulted in drafting a publication that is currently under revision for the journal Epidemiology and Infection. In August 2015, a further research visit to our unit, to plan next steps for this collaboration following publication DOI 10.1017/S0950268815002538. |
| Impact | Application to EU for funding for research into developing evidence synthesis models for estimating HIV prevalence and incidence in Poland. Funding for a two day workshop on Evidence Synthesis for estimating HIV prevalence to take place in Warsaw Dec 2013. Multi-disciplinary - statisticians, mathematicians, epidemiologists. Publication, DOI 10.1017/S0950268815002538 |
| Start Year | 2012 |
| Description | Politecnico di Milano |
| Organisation | Polytechnic University of Milan |
| Country | Italy |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Performed analyses and contributed to writing papers. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Provided data, performed some analyses and contributed to writing papers. A PhD student has started to work on this project, based at Politecnico di Milano. The work involves multi-state models with frailties for large administrative datasets, applied to hospital admission for heart failure. |
| Impact | Ieva, Francesca, Christopher H. Jackson, and Linda D. Sharples. "Multi-State modelling of repeated hospitalisation and death in patients with Heart Failure: the use of large administrative databases in clinical epidemiology." Statistical methods in medical research (2015): 0962280215578777. |
| Start Year | 2012 |
| Description | Politecnico di Milano |
| Organisation | University of Milan |
| Country | Italy |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Performed analyses and contributed to writing papers. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Provided data, performed some analyses and contributed to writing papers. A PhD student has started to work on this project, based at Politecnico di Milano. The work involves multi-state models with frailties for large administrative datasets, applied to hospital admission for heart failure. |
| Impact | Ieva, Francesca, Christopher H. Jackson, and Linda D. Sharples. "Multi-State modelling of repeated hospitalisation and death in patients with Heart Failure: the use of large administrative databases in clinical epidemiology." Statistical methods in medical research (2015): 0962280215578777. |
| Start Year | 2012 |
| Description | Thailand influenza/secondary bacterial infection collaboration with Mahidol Oxford Topical Medicine Research Unit |
| Organisation | Wellcome Trust |
| Department | Mahidol University-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Programme |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Statistical analysis and expertise. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Provision of data. Microbiological, epidemiological and mathematical modelling expertise |
| Impact | Multi-disciplinary collaboration researching the interaction of respiratory viruses and secondary bacterial infection. Includes statisticians, mathematical modellers, microbiologists and epidemiologists. |
| Start Year | 2016 |
| Description | UCL / Natsal / HPRU_Evaluation / HPRU_BBVSTI / BASHH / UKHSA - collaboration on sexual health; impact of covid-19 on sexual health |
| Organisation | British Association for Sexual Health and HIV |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | As part of our involvement in the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Behavioural Science and Evaluation, we instigated and lead this collaboration to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated interventions (lockdowns in particular) on sexual health services. We contribute statistical expertise in impact evaluation methods and analysis of sexual health data collated by UKHSA. We are co-supervising a UCL student for his undergraduate thesis for an intercalated degree in Medicine, Mathematics and Computer Science. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Our collaborators provide epidemiological and survey expertise in sexual health and sexual health service provision. |
| Impact | Initial work to account for the lockdown disruption to sexual health data (HIV testing and diagnosis) used in our models to estimate HIV prevalence and incidence was described in UKHSA's 2021 annual report on HIV (https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20221004071220mp_/https:/assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1037215/hiv-2021-report.pdf). A poster was presented to the BASHH conference 2022 (https://sti.bmj.com/content/98/Suppl_1/A76.1). The undergraduate thesis of the UCL student we co-supervise will be submitted at end April. |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | UCL / Natsal / HPRU_Evaluation / HPRU_BBVSTI / BASHH / UKHSA - collaboration on sexual health; impact of covid-19 on sexual health |
| Organisation | National Institute for Health Research |
| Department | Health Protection Research Unit in Blood Borne and Sexually Transmitted Infections |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | As part of our involvement in the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Behavioural Science and Evaluation, we instigated and lead this collaboration to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated interventions (lockdowns in particular) on sexual health services. We contribute statistical expertise in impact evaluation methods and analysis of sexual health data collated by UKHSA. We are co-supervising a UCL student for his undergraduate thesis for an intercalated degree in Medicine, Mathematics and Computer Science. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Our collaborators provide epidemiological and survey expertise in sexual health and sexual health service provision. |
| Impact | Initial work to account for the lockdown disruption to sexual health data (HIV testing and diagnosis) used in our models to estimate HIV prevalence and incidence was described in UKHSA's 2021 annual report on HIV (https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20221004071220mp_/https:/assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1037215/hiv-2021-report.pdf). A poster was presented to the BASHH conference 2022 (https://sti.bmj.com/content/98/Suppl_1/A76.1). The undergraduate thesis of the UCL student we co-supervise will be submitted at end April. |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | UCL / Natsal / HPRU_Evaluation / HPRU_BBVSTI / BASHH / UKHSA - collaboration on sexual health; impact of covid-19 on sexual health |
| Organisation | National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal) |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | As part of our involvement in the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Behavioural Science and Evaluation, we instigated and lead this collaboration to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated interventions (lockdowns in particular) on sexual health services. We contribute statistical expertise in impact evaluation methods and analysis of sexual health data collated by UKHSA. We are co-supervising a UCL student for his undergraduate thesis for an intercalated degree in Medicine, Mathematics and Computer Science. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Our collaborators provide epidemiological and survey expertise in sexual health and sexual health service provision. |
| Impact | Initial work to account for the lockdown disruption to sexual health data (HIV testing and diagnosis) used in our models to estimate HIV prevalence and incidence was described in UKHSA's 2021 annual report on HIV (https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20221004071220mp_/https:/assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1037215/hiv-2021-report.pdf). A poster was presented to the BASHH conference 2022 (https://sti.bmj.com/content/98/Suppl_1/A76.1). The undergraduate thesis of the UCL student we co-supervise will be submitted at end April. |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | UCL / Natsal / HPRU_Evaluation / HPRU_BBVSTI / BASHH / UKHSA - collaboration on sexual health; impact of covid-19 on sexual health |
| Organisation | UK Health Security Agency |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | As part of our involvement in the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Behavioural Science and Evaluation, we instigated and lead this collaboration to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated interventions (lockdowns in particular) on sexual health services. We contribute statistical expertise in impact evaluation methods and analysis of sexual health data collated by UKHSA. We are co-supervising a UCL student for his undergraduate thesis for an intercalated degree in Medicine, Mathematics and Computer Science. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Our collaborators provide epidemiological and survey expertise in sexual health and sexual health service provision. |
| Impact | Initial work to account for the lockdown disruption to sexual health data (HIV testing and diagnosis) used in our models to estimate HIV prevalence and incidence was described in UKHSA's 2021 annual report on HIV (https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20221004071220mp_/https:/assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1037215/hiv-2021-report.pdf). A poster was presented to the BASHH conference 2022 (https://sti.bmj.com/content/98/Suppl_1/A76.1). The undergraduate thesis of the UCL student we co-supervise will be submitted at end April. |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | UCL / Natsal / HPRU_Evaluation / HPRU_BBVSTI / BASHH / UKHSA - collaboration on sexual health; impact of covid-19 on sexual health |
| Organisation | University College London |
| Department | Institute For Global Health |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | As part of our involvement in the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Behavioural Science and Evaluation, we instigated and lead this collaboration to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated interventions (lockdowns in particular) on sexual health services. We contribute statistical expertise in impact evaluation methods and analysis of sexual health data collated by UKHSA. We are co-supervising a UCL student for his undergraduate thesis for an intercalated degree in Medicine, Mathematics and Computer Science. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Our collaborators provide epidemiological and survey expertise in sexual health and sexual health service provision. |
| Impact | Initial work to account for the lockdown disruption to sexual health data (HIV testing and diagnosis) used in our models to estimate HIV prevalence and incidence was described in UKHSA's 2021 annual report on HIV (https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20221004071220mp_/https:/assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1037215/hiv-2021-report.pdf). A poster was presented to the BASHH conference 2022 (https://sti.bmj.com/content/98/Suppl_1/A76.1). The undergraduate thesis of the UCL student we co-supervise will be submitted at end April. |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | University of Bristol |
| Organisation | Public Health England |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Scientific collaboration |
| Collaborator Contribution | Scientific collaboration /practical contribution |
| Impact | PMIDs: 18349037; 19036917; 19036912; 20187928; 20437454;20595255; Goubar et al; Presanis et al; 20962617; Other publications: Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs, The primary prevention of hepatitis C among injecting drug users, Home Office, 2009 (De Angelis D contributor) |
| Start Year | 2006 |
| Description | University of Bristol |
| Organisation | University of Bristol |
| Department | School of Social and Community Medicine |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Scientific collaboration |
| Collaborator Contribution | Scientific collaboration /practical contribution |
| Impact | PMIDs: 18349037; 19036917; 19036912; 20187928; 20437454;20595255; Goubar et al; Presanis et al; 20962617; Other publications: Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs, The primary prevention of hepatitis C among injecting drug users, Home Office, 2009 (De Angelis D contributor) |
| Start Year | 2006 |
| Description | University of Bristol |
| Organisation | University of Bristol |
| Department | School of Social and Community Medicine |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Scientific collaboration |
| Collaborator Contribution | Scientific collaboration /practical contribution |
| Impact | PMIDs: 18349037; 19036917; 19036912; 20187928; 20437454;20595255; Goubar et al; Presanis et al; 20962617; Other publications: Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs, The primary prevention of hepatitis C among injecting drug users, Home Office, 2009 (De Angelis D contributor) |
| Start Year | 2006 |
| Description | University of Hong Kong - influenza |
| Organisation | University of Hong Kong |
| Department | School of Public Health and Department of Community Medicine |
| Country | Hong Kong |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Staff member (Anne Presanis) providing expert advice on evidence synthesis models of influenza severity, in particular for avian H7N9 influenza. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Prof Ben Cowling's group contributed travel funding (flights & accommodation) for AP to visit his group in Hong Kong for 3 days in June 2015, to give an invited seminar and to advise on various evidence synthesis models they are working on for estimating influenza severity. |
| Impact | Following the research visit to Hong Kong University, Prof Cowling, as chair of the organising committee of the ISIRV 2016 workshop (https://isirv2016.influenza.hk/), invited AP to give a talk at the workshop "Model criticism for a Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate influenza severity" in January 2016. AP's travel expenses were funded by the workshop. |
| Start Year | 2015 |
| Description | University of Warwick |
| Organisation | University of Warwick |
| Department | School of Life Sciences |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | scientific Collaboration |
| Collaborator Contribution | Scientific Collaboration |
| Impact | Collaborative work ongoing and one paper under submission: Birrell PJ, De Angelis D, Wernisch L, Tom BDM, Roberts GO, Pebody RG. Efficient real-time monitoring of an emerging influenza epidemic: how feasible? (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series C)) |
| Start Year | 2007 |
| Title | CD4-staged back-calculation model to estimate HIV incidence |
| Description | R code to implement multi-state model based on stages defined by CD4 counts representing progression of HIV disease, observed new diagnoses, and observed CD4 counts at diagnosis to estimate ("back-calculate") HIV incidence (rate of new infection) from the diagnoses. The 2021 published version is a significant development of previous year's versions (https://doi.org/10.1016/S2352-3018(21)00044-8). |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Impact | Software is used by the UK Health Security Agency to produce official estimates of HIV incidence in gay men in England for their annual reports. Estimates used by the HIV Commission and HIV Action Plan to monitor progress towards the goal of eliminating HIV transmission by 2030. |
| URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hiv-annual-data-tables |
| Title | MPES model to estimate HIV prevalence |
| Description | R code implementing statistical multi-parameter evidence synthesis (MPES) model to estimate HIV prevalence in the United Kingdom, by risk group, age, region, sex and year. The 2021 published version (https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00142-0) is a substantial development of previous years' versions. |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Impact | Software used by the UK Health Security Agency's to produce official yearly HIV prevalence estimates for the United Kingdom. Estimates resulting from the model have been used by the HIV Commission and the HIV Action Plan to monitor progress towards elimination of HIV transmission by 2030. |
| URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hiv-annual-data-tables |
| Title | R package for flexible survival and multi-state modelling: flexsurv |
| Description | Software developed for flexible survival and multi-state modelling by my colleague at MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Christopher Jackson. It was developed prior to this award, but was signifcantly expanded during this award, motivated by the problem of estimating COVID-19 severity, among hospitalised cases. |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Open Source License? | Yes |
| Impact | Two papers published (Grosso et al 2021, Presanis et al 2021) and two in press (Jackson et al 2022a, 2022b) using the software package to estimate risks of competing outcomes among hospitalised COVID-19 cases (ICU admission, death, discharge) and lengths of stay in hospital. |
| URL | https://cran.r-project.org/package=flexsurv |
| Title | Real-time modelling of COVID-19 |
| Description | C++ code to implement real-time transmission modelling and monitoring of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in United Kingdom (estimation, nowcasting and forecasting of infection rate, R numbers, deaths and hospitalisations). |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2020 |
| Impact | Used to produce official UK Health Security Agency pandemic monitoring outputs. Informed policy through sharing of estimates with SPI-M advisory group. |
| URL | https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/tackling-covid-19/nowcasting-and-forecasting-of-covid-19/ |
| Title | fic: Focused Information Criteria for Model Comparison. |
| Description | fic: Focused Information Criteria for Model Comparison. R package, https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=fic |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2019 |
| Open Source License? | Yes |
| Impact | TBC |
| URL | https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=fic |
| Title | pkirwan/COVID-hospital-outcomes: R code for manuscript |
| Description | Trends in COVID-19 hospital outcomes in England before and after vaccine introduction, a cohort study |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Open Source License? | Yes |
| Impact | This code accompanies a paper on estimating hospital-fatality risks and lengths of stay among COVID-19 patients. Initial results were presented to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies in December 2021: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/mrc-biostatistics-unit-and-phe-estimates-of-covid-19-hospitalised-mortality-and-length-of-stay-data-from-march-2020-to-september-2021-7-december-20 |
| URL | https://zenodo.org/record/6856530 |
| Description | 18th Armitage Workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Organised the Unit's 18th Armitage Workshop on the theme of decision-based inference with speakers representing all four BSU research themes. Hybrid workshop which had international reach. Chris Jackson gave talk on "Multistate modelling of indirect chronic disease data to inform health impact models" |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/news-and-events/armitage-lectureships-and-workshops/18th-armitage-lect... |
| Description | APPG Parliamentary reception on 'Tackling COVID-19: Recognising the exceptional research response' |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Daniela De Angelis attended the APPG Parliamentary reception on 'Tackling COVID-19: Recognising the exceptional research response' as an MRC scientist who has played a major role in responding the pandemic through her real-time tracking of COVID-19 which has fed to the SAGE sub-group, Scientific Pandemic Influenza sub-group on Modelling (SPI-M) and to regional teams at UK Health Security Agency (UK HSA). |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Article in Quanticate online news blog about BAYES 2018: Bayesian Biostatistics Workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Online news blog written by attendee at BAYES 2018: Bayesian Biostatistics Workshop (organised by the BSU), discussing key topics covered in workshop |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.quanticate.com/blog/bayesian-approaches-to-use-historical-data-in-the-analysis-of-clinic... |
| Description | Article on NHS health checks programme |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Article on new research on NHS health checks programme which Chris Jackson is PI on. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Article on new approaches to Bayesian data science |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Article published in Lancaster University online news blog about research into new approaches to Bayesian data science, which Daniela De Angelis is collaborator on. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | BAYES 2018: Bayesian Biostatistics Workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Lead organiser and scientific committee chair (Daniela De Angelis) for BAYES 2018: Bayesian Biostatistics Workshop covering various themes around bayesian biostatistics research. Workshop attracted 109 delegates from the UK and internationally. Keynote speakers came from UK and USA. Event raised profile of Unit and has initiated new research collaborations. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | CSAP Podcast: Science, Policy and Pandemics |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Daniela De Angelis took part in podcast organised by the Centre for Science and Policy, discussing applying statistical methods to epidemiology, disease transmission, and how she and her team are using statistical models to understand the burden on the NHS posed by COVID-19. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sx9SthuE6cM&feature=youtu.be |
| Description | Cambridge Science Festival 2019 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Stand at Cambridge Science Festival 2019, presenting two interactive hands-on activities; one explaining probability and risk, and the other on precision medicine. Reaching out to 500+ audience members over 1 day. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Careers talk at secondary school |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Schools |
| Results and Impact | Paul Birrell visited Mill Hill County High School in London to discuss careers in maths and statistics and steps to achieve those career goals. http://www.mhchs.org.uk/visit-from-dr-paul-birrell/36671.html |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Case study: 'Devising and applying statistical methods to underpin national HIV policy' |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Programme Leader, Daniela De Angelis, wrote a case study for the 'Public Health: Research into Policy' project on how she engages with policy through providing UK official estimates on HIV prevalence, for the 'HIV in the UK' report. Case study called 'Devising and applying statistical methods to underpin national HIV policy' http://www.iph.cam.ac.uk/public-health-policy/case-studies/hivstatistics/ |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| URL | http://www.iph.cam.ac.uk/public-health-policy/case-studies/hivstatistics/ |
| Description | Channel 4 Dispatches Documentary |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Daniela De Angelis was interviewed and featured in Channel 4 Dispatches documentary on how the government responded to the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.channel4.com/programmes/coronavirus-did-the-government-get-it-wrong/on-demand/71453-001 |
| Description | Interview for BBC Radio 4 News |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Daniela De Angelis was interviewed for BBC Radio 4 News about calculation of R and regional predictions on number of COVID-19 infections and deaths. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Interview for BBC Radio 4, More or Less |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Paul Birrell interviewed on BBC Radio 4, More or Less programme, about calculation of R and regional predictions on number of COVID-19 infections and deaths. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000j2r7 |
| Description | Interview for BBC Radio 4, Today Programme |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Daniela De Angelis was interviewed for the Today programme on BBC Radio 4 about her latest work on nowcasting and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Interview for Sky News |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Daniela De Angelis was interviewed for Sky News about the latest modelling of COVID-19, R rate, and whether lockdown restrictions are working. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Invited Speaker, Modelling Course, School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Invited Speaker for Modelling Course, School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Title of talk: 'The COVID-19 Pandemic in England: modelling to inform policy' |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Invited speaker - Fast Track Cities workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Workshop organised by Public Health England and Fast Track Cities to discuss local efforts at HIV transmission elimination and how to monitor progress towards elimination of transmission. Mixed audience of members of Fast Track Cities, the International Association of Providers of AIDS Care, industry (Gilead) and HIV charities/patient groups. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Invited speaker - STI & HIV 2021 World Congress |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Invited speaker for a satellite workshop "Towards zero new HIV infections: prospects of HIV elimination and an HIV cure". Attendees at the congress & workshop included HIV patients, communities at risk and scientists, and had a focus on community engagement (https://www.stihiv2021.org/). |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.stihiv2021.org/ |
| Description | Invited speaker - WHO Europe and ECDC joint surveillance meeting (respiratory infections) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation of our research on estimating COVID-19 severity by variant to the member states of WHO Europe and ECDC. Let to emergency funding for us to work with these member states to support them in producing similar analyses, both by writing a protocol for the analysis and sharing code/methods/support, and to synthesise the resulting estimates across the involved countries to produce more precise estimates than from one country alone. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Jackson- International Biometric Society Channel Network Conference, Rothamsted, July 2019 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | International Biometric Society Channel Network Conference, Rothamsted, July 2020. "Focused model comparison in practice: the `fic` package". |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=fic |
| Description | Jackson- StanCon, Cambridge, August 2019. |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | StanCon, Cambridge, August 2019. "Estimating the prevalence of HIV infection in England using Bayesian evidence synthesis". |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Live panel discussion - Following the Science: What lessons have we learned about science communication from COVID-19? |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Daniela DeAngelis participated in live panel discussion for the Cambridge Festival 2021 on 'Following the Science: What lessons have we learned about science communication from COVID-19?' |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtCfIvJM5IA |
| Description | MRC seminar on COVID-19 research |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Daniela De Angelis invited to give first talk for new MRC seminar series set up to showcase and share the diverse range of health-related research taking place through MRC investments and collaborations. Daniela spoke on "Tracking the COVID-19 pandemic in real time". |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Media coverage of nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Research on nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19, led by Daniela De Angelis, has been covered across local, national and international media outlets. The work was mentioned more than 8500 times between April 2020 and January 2022 across numerous media outlets. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020,2021,2022 |
| URL | https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/tackling-covid-19/nowcasting-and-forecasting-of-covid-19/ |
| Description | Media enquiries on COVID-19 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Daniela De Angelis and Paul Birrell responded to five media enquiries about research on COVID-19, including for articles in; Cambridge Independent, Reuters, The Telegraph, Yahoo News and the Daily Mail. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Organiser and Chair, Royal Statistical Society CoVID-19 Evidence Session 'Evidence and Policy Making' |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Daniela De Angelis was Organiser and Chair for the Royal Statistical Society CoVID-19 Evidence Session "Evidence and Policy Making" |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Organising committee for 'Computational Abstractions for Probabilistic and Differentiable Programming' |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Daniela De Angelis was a member of the Organsing Committee for 'Computational Abstractions for Probabilistic and Differentiable Programming', Department of Engineer, University of Cambridge |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Plenary Speaker, Isaac Newton Institute, Infection Dynamics of Pandemics Programme |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Plenary Speaker, Isaac Newton Institute, Infection Dynamics of Pandemics Programme. Title of talk: 'Nowcasting and Forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic in England' |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Poster presentation on HIV back-calculation sensitivity at UKHSA conference |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Poster presentation at UKHSA conference entitled: Sensitivity of an HIV back-calculation model to COVID-19 lockdown assumptions. Presentation was made to other statistical and epidemiological colleagues, prompting questions and discussion. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Presentation on hybrid protection from COVID-19 at Armitage week |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation at unit-wide Armitage week entitled: Multi-state models of hybrid protection against COVID-19: the SIREN study. Presentation was made to other statistical and epidemiological colleagues, prompting questions and discussion. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Presentation on protection of vaccination and prior infection against COVID-19 at RSS conference |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Poster presentation at RSS Conference entitled: Protection of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and prior infection against future infection. Presentation was made to other statistical and epidemiological colleagues, prompting questions and discussion. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Presentation on sensitivity of HIV back-calculation model at Greek Stochastics |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation at Greek Stochastics conference in Corfu entitled: Sensitivity of an HIV back-calculation model to counterfactual COVID-19 lockdown assumptions. Presentation was made to other statistical colleagues, prompting questions and discussion. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Press coverage of paper showing Hospital-acquired COVID-19 driven by patients |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Press coverage of paper showing Hospital-acquired COVID-19 is driven by patients not health care workers. Relates to paper published in eLife with Chris Illingworth as lead author. Research covered in 300 international, national and regional media outlets. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Press coverage on paper showing Delta variant of COVID-19 caused more hospitalisations than Alpha variant |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Press coverage on paper showing Delta variant of COVID-19 caused more hospitalisations than Alpha variant. Relates to paper published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases. Research was covered in 644 national, international and regional media outlets. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Press coverage on paper showing England on track to achieve elimination of HIV transmission by 2030 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Press coverage on paper showing England on track to achieve elimination of HIV transmission by 2030. Relates to paper published in Lancet HIV. Research was covered in 57 international, national and regional media outlets. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Press coverage on paper showing England will 'have diagnosed' 95% of people living with HIV by 2025 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Press coverage on paper showing England will 'have diagnosed' 95% of people living with HIV by 2025. Relates to paper published in the Lancet Public Health. Research was covered in 28 international, national and regional media outlets. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Press coverage on paper showing upgrading PPE for staff on Covid wards dramatically cut infections |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Press coverage on paper showing upgrading PPE for staff on Covid wards dramatically cut infections. Relates to pre-print paper. Research covered in 331 international, national and regional media outlets. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Profile article on Daniela De Angelis |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Profile article on Daniela De Angelis and work on tackling the COVID-19 pandemic |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/tackling-covid-19-professor-daniela-de-angelis |
| Description | Samartsidis- : A Bayesian multivariate factor analysis model for evaluating an intervention using observational time-series data on multiple outcomes |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Pantelis Samartisidis- Bayesian Biostatistics, Lyon, May 2019. Talk title: A Bayesian multivariate factor analysis model for evaluating an intervention using observational time-series data on multiple outcomes |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Samartsidis- : A Bayesian multivariate factor analysis model for evaluating an intervention using observational time-series data on multiple outcomes/London |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Pantelis Samartsides- CMStatistics, London, December 2019. Talk title: A Bayesian multivariate factor analysis model for evaluating an intervention using observational time-series data on multiple outcomes |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Samartsidis- : Assessing the causal effect of binary interventions from observational panel data with few treated units |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Pantelis Samartsidis- Armitage Worskshop, Cambridge, November 2019. Talk title: Assessing the causal effect of binary interventions from observational panel data with few treated units |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Statistics Meets Public Health talk |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Programme Leader, Daniel;a De Angelis, gave talk as part of 'Statistics Meets Public Health' seminar series - a series of non-technical talks, aiming to illustrate the links between statistical research and public health, targetted to lay audiences and free to attend. Daniela gave talk on 'Shaping Public Health Policy on Infectious Diseases through Evidence Synthesis' to approximately 40 audience members. Future talks in seminar series arranged. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | TV and Radio interviews on paper showing England will 'have diagnosed' 95% of people living with HIV by 2025 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Daniela De Angelis gave TV interview for BBC News and radio interview for Times Radio about new paper showing England will 'have diagnosed' 95% of people living with HIV by 2025. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Talk at 19th Armitage Workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Daniela De Angelis and Shaun Seaman both invited to give talks at the BSU's 19th Armitage Workshop. Daniela's talk title: "Real-time monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 in England: where are we now and how did we get here?". Shaun's talk title: "Nowcasting COVID-19 Deaths in England by Age and Region" |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Talk at Addis Ababa |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Anne Presanis invited to give talk at Addis Ababa in Ethiopia for Workshop linked with Bayesian Statistics Course. Title of talk: 'Bayesian evidence synthesis for estimating infectious disease burden' |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Talk at New South Wales Agency for Clinical Innovation International Expert Advisory Committee |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Daniela De Angelis invited to speak at New South Wales Agency for Clinical Innovation International Expert Advisory Committee, on her work on nowcasting and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK and how this information has been used to guide UK policy on the pandemic. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Talks at Addis Ababa |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Feysal Muhammed and Peter Kirwan gave talks at Addis Ababa in Ethiopia for Workshop linked with Bayesian Statistics Course. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Using nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19 in Suffolk County Council Newsletter 'Suffolk Coronawatch' |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Monthly Suffolk Coronawatch News Bulletin distributed to members of the public, includes latest estimated regional 'R' numbers from published report on BSU website - work led by Daniela De Angelis. Newsletter highlights table of R value predictions by region. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |