Role of food prices and food system changes in improving population health

AE1: Food and diet related health AE2: Epidemiological and population health studies AE3: Health economics and economic evaluations AE4: Impact of prices on population behaviour

The CDA research programme uses advanced econometric methods to develop models and analyse dietary behaviour via food and beverage demand and linking to health outcomes by addressing four key gaps in current research:
RQ1: What is the role of stock-piling (storing), habits and information asymmetry in influencing consumer response to price changes and the choice of foods and beverages?
RQ2: What is the role of out-of-home food and beverage consumption in diets, and how does the demand for OOH foods and beverages respond to price changes, including substitution with foods eaten at home?
RQ3: What is the impact of industry-led voluntary changes in food systems, to achieve healthier food environments, on consumer food and beverage choices and expenditures?
RQ4: How can Discrete Choice Experiments (DCE) be effectively used in analysing the impact of food policies on consumer behaviour in the context of large numbers of alternatives and multiple choices?
RQs1-3 will be answered by micro-econometric analysis of highly disaggregated longitudinal panel data on household food and beverage purchases. Planned methods range from discrete choice models (RQ1) and multi-stage demand systems (e.g. almost ideal demand system) (RQ1-2) to interrupted time series designs with control groups and multi-level hierarchical random effects models (RQ3). For RQ4, advanced DCE methods will be used, including Bayesian D-efficient designs, and allowing for large number of alternatives and multiple choices via menu based experiments or multiple discrete choice models.
Two major innovations from the proposed programme include the use of newly available and highly disaggregated data for food and beverage consumption outside homes that will be linked to at-home consumption data, and an application of the DCE in the same sample meaning that stated preferences can be put into context with wider behaviour using large amounts of highly disaggregated observed behaviour (preference) data.

The research proposed has a number of beneficiaries:

The research team. The PI will gain further knowledge, skills and experience to evolve from an independent researcher to a clear leader in the field. The CDA allows hiring a research fellow and thus supporting career development of a junior public health economist.

LSHTM. LSHTM will benefit from this research through a more diversified research portfolio, and high-quality research outputs in a strategically important area in public health research globally.

Academia. This research will introduce novel insights into households' dietary behaviour by analysing a novel and largely unused data on food and beverage consumption patterns both at-home and out-of-home. The benefit from the research is providing input into future research from using the findings or via developed methods and statistical applications.

Health policy makers. The project aims to provide evidence-based answers that help in deciding on and/or designing policies to influence food or beverage consumption habits. The scientific papers and other output (e.g. policy briefs) from the project will therefore include clearly written policy suggestions that health policy makers can benefit from.

Civil society organisations, professional bodies, health charities, lobby groups and other interest groups who wish to influence health policy regarding reductions in obesity and NCDs. These groups will benefit as their work can be based on peer-reviewed and published research findings as well as via continuous links with the PI and her emerging team to also provide input via suggestions and recommendations to research.

Ultimately the beneficiaries of this research are the people whose health and life quality can be improved by effective policies to reduce obesity and NCD prevalence rates. Healthier people mean a healthier workforce and thus savings from firm to national level from lower medical costs and reduced work absence will eventually boost economic growth for the country. Furthermore, resources saved from lower prevalence of obesity and NCDs can be used elsewhere to improve other public services.

In the longer run it is not just the UK and developed countries that benefit but also developing countries where the growing issue of double burden of disease means that these governments will be seeking effective solutions including these tested in developed countries.