Projecting extreme droughts in rapidly changing human-water systems
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Bristol
Department Name: Geographical Sciences
Abstract
A reliable water supply is usually taken for granted in the UK. However, there is increasing pressure on water supplies. By 2050, anthropogenic climate change and increasing water demand from a growing population is projected to lead to frequent water shortages across the UK, with projections estimating more than 3 billion litres of additional water a day required to ensure supply. An extreme drought could exceed the coping capacity of many water companies leading to severe supply restrictions and costing up to £40 billion in emergency water supply measures alone. Predicting plausible 'worst case' droughts and their impacts on river flows is vital to test the resilience of current water supply systems, to support critical planning decisions such as future investment in supply infrastructure (e.g. reservoirs, desalination plants, inter-catchment water transfer schemes) and to ensure adequate future water supply for food-energy-water systems.
This is a challenge as current understanding of how freshwater resources will respond to changes in water supply and water demand remain poorly understood and quantified, particularly for extreme drought events. The problem is two-fold. Firstly, the models we currently use to inform water resource decisions currently neglect key interactions between human water-use (such as reservoir storage, irrigation, hydro-power generation) and terrestrial water fluxes (such as hillslope runoff, surface water and groundwater flow). Secondly, such extreme drought events are especially difficult to characterise and predict. Droughts are complex phenomena that vary across multiple spatial and temporal scales from small river reaches to continental scales lasting for weeks to decades.
This research addresses these challenges by establishing the resilience of water systems across Great Britain to extreme droughts. It will develop new integrated modelling tools and leverage unique datasets of human-water use to determine how freshwater resources (river flows and groundwater levels) will respond to changes in water supply (from anthropogenic climate change) and water demand (from human water use). The integrated modelling framework will explicitly characterise the interactions and feedbacks between human-water use (from domestic, agricultural and industrial demand) and hydro-climatic processes (land-atmosphere, hillslope runoff and surface-groundwater interactions). This will be used to facilitate a step-change in UK drought prediction and generate new understanding of how human-water interactions alleviate or enhance hydrological droughts that will feed into the next generation of earth system models. I will develop nationally consistent, open access libraries of meteorological and hydrological drought events to provide the first extreme drought projections for Great Britain that account for changes in future water supply and demand. These new datasets will be used to support critical decisions on how best to manage future water resources in collaboration with key project partners including water companies, regional planning groups, regulatory bodies and research institutes.
This is a challenge as current understanding of how freshwater resources will respond to changes in water supply and water demand remain poorly understood and quantified, particularly for extreme drought events. The problem is two-fold. Firstly, the models we currently use to inform water resource decisions currently neglect key interactions between human water-use (such as reservoir storage, irrigation, hydro-power generation) and terrestrial water fluxes (such as hillslope runoff, surface water and groundwater flow). Secondly, such extreme drought events are especially difficult to characterise and predict. Droughts are complex phenomena that vary across multiple spatial and temporal scales from small river reaches to continental scales lasting for weeks to decades.
This research addresses these challenges by establishing the resilience of water systems across Great Britain to extreme droughts. It will develop new integrated modelling tools and leverage unique datasets of human-water use to determine how freshwater resources (river flows and groundwater levels) will respond to changes in water supply (from anthropogenic climate change) and water demand (from human water use). The integrated modelling framework will explicitly characterise the interactions and feedbacks between human-water use (from domestic, agricultural and industrial demand) and hydro-climatic processes (land-atmosphere, hillslope runoff and surface-groundwater interactions). This will be used to facilitate a step-change in UK drought prediction and generate new understanding of how human-water interactions alleviate or enhance hydrological droughts that will feed into the next generation of earth system models. I will develop nationally consistent, open access libraries of meteorological and hydrological drought events to provide the first extreme drought projections for Great Britain that account for changes in future water supply and demand. These new datasets will be used to support critical decisions on how best to manage future water resources in collaboration with key project partners including water companies, regional planning groups, regulatory bodies and research institutes.
Publications
Zheng Y
(2023)
A Framework for Estimating the Probability Distribution of Event Runoff Coefficient in Ungauged Catchments
in Water Resources Research
Lane R
(2022)
A large-sample investigation into uncertain climate change impacts on high flows across Great Britain
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Kiraz M
(2023)
A priori selection of hydrological model structures in modular modelling frameworks: application to Great Britain
in Hydrological Sciences Journal
Kiraz M
(2023)
A Signature-Based Hydrologic Efficiency Metric for Model Calibration and Evaluation in Gauged and Ungauged Catchments
in Water Resources Research
Zheng Y
(2023)
Controls on the Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Rainfall-Runoff Event Characteristics-A Large Sample of Catchments Across Great Britain
in Water Resources Research
Oldham L
(2023)
Evidence-based requirements for perceptualising intercatchment groundwater flow in hydrological models
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Devitt L
(2023)
Flood hazard potential reveals global floodplain settlement patterns.
in Nature communications
Archer L
(2024)
Future Change in Urban Flooding Using New Convection-Permitting Climate Projections
in Water Resources Research
Salwey S
(2023)
National-Scale Detection of Reservoir Impacts Through Hydrological Signatures
in Water Resources Research
Kreibich H
(2023)
Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts
in Earth System Science Data
Murgatroyd A
(2022)
Strategic analysis of the drought resilience of water supply systems
in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Van Loon A
(2022)
Streamflow droughts aggravated by human activities despite management
in Environmental Research Letters
Bradbury G
(2022)
Testing a novel sonar-based approach for measuring water depth and monitoring sediment storage in beaver ponds
in River Research and Applications
Kreibich H
(2022)
The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management.
in Nature
McMillan H
(2023)
When good signatures go bad: Applying hydrologic signatures in large sample studies
in Hydrological Processes
Description | Hydrological projections from this fellowship have been used to inform billion pound investments in new water infrastructure as part of the Ofwat Regulators' Alliance for Progressing Infrastructure Development (RAPID). |
Sector | Environment |
Impact Types | Policy & public services |