Controlling COVID19 through enhanced population surveillance and intervention (Con-COV): a platform approach
Lead Research Organisation:
Swansea University
Department Name: Institute of Life Science Medical School
Abstract
In December 2019 the world learnt of the novel (new) virus; COVID-19, which has rapidly become a global pandemic. The virus has had an unprecedented effect on the global population in a very short space of time meaning international governing bodies and health care provisions have had to devise their responses to fight the virus and protect people, in real time based on ever evolving information.
In Wales a specialist research team made up of representatives from; Welsh Government, Public Health Wales, academia, and the public have come together to develop a project which will rapidly analyse data from numerous sectors including primary and secondary care. The project will ensure; 1) policy makers and health care providers are kept informed and have a detailed insight into the evolving pandemic; 2) interventions which are being used to fight and control the virus are evaluated for their effectiveness; 3) the general public are kept informed.
DHSC/UKRI COVID-19 Rapid Response Initiative - Proposal Form_v4.0
Note that while the form only offers plain text, special characters can be pasted into the form. For form queries contact ccf-nCoV@nihr.ac.uk
Each week the project will provide a report to Welsh Government COVID19 Technical Advisory Group (TAG) and British Government's SAGE; this will help inform evidencebased strategies to control the virus, safe guard the general population and bring the UK out of lockdown (Jan and Chris Davies, members of public).
In Wales a specialist research team made up of representatives from; Welsh Government, Public Health Wales, academia, and the public have come together to develop a project which will rapidly analyse data from numerous sectors including primary and secondary care. The project will ensure; 1) policy makers and health care providers are kept informed and have a detailed insight into the evolving pandemic; 2) interventions which are being used to fight and control the virus are evaluated for their effectiveness; 3) the general public are kept informed.
DHSC/UKRI COVID-19 Rapid Response Initiative - Proposal Form_v4.0
Note that while the form only offers plain text, special characters can be pasted into the form. For form queries contact ccf-nCoV@nihr.ac.uk
Each week the project will provide a report to Welsh Government COVID19 Technical Advisory Group (TAG) and British Government's SAGE; this will help inform evidencebased strategies to control the virus, safe guard the general population and bring the UK out of lockdown (Jan and Chris Davies, members of public).
Technical Summary
Con-COV Technical Summary.
Background: COVID19 is a rapidly evolving complex issue that requires near real time data, analyses and multidisciplinary team science to devise, implement and evaluate a wide variety of inter- and cross-sectoral interventions in order to minimise population harm.
Aims: to integrate multiple sources of data to produce timely and responsive analyses to: 1) provide detailed insight into the evolving pandemic in the general population, vulnerable groups and diverse settings (health care workers, social care workers, care homes and schools); 2) support and undertake evaluations of the effectiveness of adopted counter measures as these evolve; 3) rapidly inform policy and practice decision makers; and 4) communicate effectively with the general public.
Methods: We will build on the existing total population 3.2 million Wales Multimorbidity Cohort funded by HDRUK/MRC to create the greatest in-depth COVID19 population study with data enhancements on vulnerable groups and settings, serology and viral genomics, scale the breadth and depth of disciplines involved and support embedded evaluations of countermeasures. Our multi-agency team includes individuals from Welsh Government, Public Health Wales, academics from multiple disciplines and members of the public.
Deliverables: Reports on exposure risks, incidence and outcomes to Welsh Government COVID19 Technical Advisory Group (TAG) and onwards to SAGE; share models with multiple UK groups including SPI-M, triallists, and the Royal Society DELVE initiative; and provide evaluations of natural experiments in policy and practice.
Timeline: We will report weekly to TAG and monthly to funders, recognising the time-sensitive requirements needed to inform evidence-based control and exit strategies.
Background: COVID19 is a rapidly evolving complex issue that requires near real time data, analyses and multidisciplinary team science to devise, implement and evaluate a wide variety of inter- and cross-sectoral interventions in order to minimise population harm.
Aims: to integrate multiple sources of data to produce timely and responsive analyses to: 1) provide detailed insight into the evolving pandemic in the general population, vulnerable groups and diverse settings (health care workers, social care workers, care homes and schools); 2) support and undertake evaluations of the effectiveness of adopted counter measures as these evolve; 3) rapidly inform policy and practice decision makers; and 4) communicate effectively with the general public.
Methods: We will build on the existing total population 3.2 million Wales Multimorbidity Cohort funded by HDRUK/MRC to create the greatest in-depth COVID19 population study with data enhancements on vulnerable groups and settings, serology and viral genomics, scale the breadth and depth of disciplines involved and support embedded evaluations of countermeasures. Our multi-agency team includes individuals from Welsh Government, Public Health Wales, academics from multiple disciplines and members of the public.
Deliverables: Reports on exposure risks, incidence and outcomes to Welsh Government COVID19 Technical Advisory Group (TAG) and onwards to SAGE; share models with multiple UK groups including SPI-M, triallists, and the Royal Society DELVE initiative; and provide evaluations of natural experiments in policy and practice.
Timeline: We will report weekly to TAG and monthly to funders, recognising the time-sensitive requirements needed to inform evidence-based control and exit strategies.
Publications

Nafilyan V
(2021)
An external validation of the QCovid risk prediction algorithm for risk of mortality from COVID-19 in adults: a national validation cohort study in England
in The Lancet Digital Health


Snooks H
(2021)
Call volume, triage outcomes, and protocols during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom: Results of a national survey.
in Journal of the American College of Emergency Physicians open



Johnson R
(2021)
Deriving household composition using population-scale electronic health record data-A reproducible methodology
in PLOS ONE

Daniels H
(2022)
Epilepsy mortality in Wales during COVID-19.
in Seizure



Greene G
(2021)
Impact of Societal Lockdown and Health System Response to the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Female Breast, Colorectal and Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Incidence, Stage at Diagnosis and Referral Route During 2020 in Wales, UK: A Population Study Using a National Cancer Clinical Record System
in SSRN Electronic Journal
Description | Membership of Welsh Government COVID19 Technical Advisory Group |
Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a advisory committee |
Impact | Professor Lyons has been an integral and valued member of the Covid-19 Technical advisory Group, reporting to both TAG and SAGE and providing crucial intelligence to researchers, public health experts and government advisors, policy officials and decision makers. This has enabled Welsh Government to act at pace to evaluate both the direct and indirect impacts of Covid-19 on the Welsh population. His work has been instrumental in informing the modelling and data used to help understand and predict the developing situation of the disease in Wales. Professor Lyons has been an insightful and candid voice at TAG and has contributed considerably to the consensus statements and advisory briefings that are formed there including: • Technical Advisory Group: Viral Variant VOC-202012/01 • Technical Advisory Group: Policy Modelling - December 2020 and January 2021 • Technical Advisory Group: Situation Report on COVID-19 Cases and Clusters associated with Schools • Technical Advisory Group: Statement regarding non-pharmaceutical interventions in the pre-Christmas period • Technical Advisory Group: Contacts with primary and secondary healthcare prior to suicide: case-control whole-population based study using person-level linked routine data in Wales, UK, 2000-2017 • Technical Advisory Group: Consensus statement on face coverings • Technical Advisory Group: The coronavirus pandemic: identifying and meeting future evidence and research needs for Wales • Technical Advisory Group: Pre and post-Christmas restrictions, • Technical Advisory Group: NHS and Health Harms • SAGE: NPIs toolbox • Technical Advisory Group: Preparing for a challenging winter in Wales 2020/21 • Technical Advisory Group: Face Coverings Consensus Statement • Technical Advisory Group: The coronavirus pandemic - research and evidence needs • Data sharing to support risk assessment for Health Care Workers - COVID19 |
Description | COVID19 epidemic policy simulations for Wales: Integrating spatial structure and routine linked health data for disease modelling |
Amount | £100,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Government of Wales |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 08/2020 |
End | 08/2021 |
Description | Effects of shielding for Vulnerable people during COVID-19 pandemic on health outcomes, costs and Immunity including those with cancer: quasi-experimenTal Evaluation (EVITE Immunity) |
Amount | £174,318 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NCSi4P |
Organisation | Medical Research Council (MRC) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 11/2020 |
End | 03/2021 |
Description | Population Health Information Research Infrastructure - PHIRI (Mobilisation of Research infrastructure for the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency) |
Amount | € 5,000,000 (EUR) |
Funding ID | Horizon 2020-IBA-INFRA-CORONA-2020 |
Organisation | European Commission |
Sector | Public |
Country | European Union (EU) |
Start | 11/2020 |
End | 10/2023 |
Description | Undertaking scientific analysis of policy relevant questions to support the work of the Welsh Government Covid-19 Evidence Centre |
Amount | £292,284 (GBP) |
Organisation | Health and Care Research Wales |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2021 |
End | 06/2025 |
Description | What TRIage model is safest and most effective for the Management of 999 callers with suspected COVID19? A linked outcome study (TRIM) |
Amount | £358,400 (GBP) |
Funding ID | MR/V027808/1 |
Organisation | Medical Research Council (MRC) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 06/2020 |
End | 06/2021 |
Title | Real-time spatial health surveillance: mapping the UK COVID-19 epidemic |
Description | Development of a rapid tool to demonstrate spread of COVID19 symptoms in near real-time |
Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Model used by First Minister Welsh Government in COVID19 public briefings |
URL | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1386505621000265 |
Title | Understanding and responding to COVID19 in Wales: protocol for a privacy protecting data platform for enhanced epidemiology and evaluation of interventions |
Description | Development of a total population platform to help control the COVID19 pandemic |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2020 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Analyses from this dataset has informed Welsh Government COVID19 Technical Advisory Group and SAGE on the development of the pandemic, transmission in care homes and schools and the effectiveness of countermeasures |
URL | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/10/10/e043010.full.pdf |
Description | Creation of OneWales team to maximise production of policy relevant research to Welsh Government |
Organisation | Government of Wales |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Our HDRUK and ADRUK funded analysts working in collaboration with colleagues at Public Health Wales NHS Trust and Swansea and Cardiff universities provide frequent analysed of data on the evolving COVID19 pandemic in Wales to Welsh Government COVID19 Technical Advisory Group and subgroups |
Collaborator Contribution | Contribution of funding for additional analyses and expertise from many areas of Government to help define and answer policy relevant questions |
Impact | Multiple outputs available at: https://gov.wales/publications?field_external_organisations%5B30180%5D=30180 |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | 03/07/2020 - New approaches to data analytics in the COVID era. Invited plenary, Health Services Research UK 2020 Annual Conference |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | New approaches to data analytics in the COVID era. Invited plenary, Health Services Research UK 2020 Annual Conference, 03/07/20. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | 04/09/2020 - Analysis of linked de-identified data of the impact of COVID19 on the Welsh population using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) system. SAIL Consumer Panel |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Analysis of linked de-identified data of the impact of COVID19 on the Welsh population using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) system. SAIL Consumer Panel, 04/09/20 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | 04/09/2020 - Analysis of linked de-identified data of the impact of COVID19 on the Welsh population using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) system. Welsh Government COVID19 Technical Advisory Group |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Analysis of linked de-identified data of the impact of COVID19 on the Welsh population using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) system. Welsh Government COVID19 Technical Advisory Group, 04/09/20. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | 08/07/2020 - Controlling COVID19 through enhanced population surveillance and intervention (Con-COV): a platform approach. First Minister's BAME (Black Asian and Minority Ethnic) Advisory Group |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Controlling COVID19 through enhanced population surveillance and intervention (Con-COV): a platform approach. First Minister's BAME (Black Asian and Minority Ethnic) Advisory Group, 08/07/20. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | 09/11/2020 - Contribution to BBC Wales Investigates programme on the impact of COVID19 on the Welsh population. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Contribution to BBC Wales Investigates programme on the impact of COVID19 on the Welsh population, 09/11/20. See links to coverage below: BBC Wales Investigates - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54808693 Programme available: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000pfhy/bbc-wales-investigates-the-hidden-cost-of-covid |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54808693 |
Description | 16/02/2021 - SARS-CoV-2 vaccination by ethnicity update. First Minister's BAME (Black Asian and Minority Ethnic) Advisory Group |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | SARS-CoV-2 vaccination by ethnicity update. First Minister's BAME (Black Asian and Minority Ethnic) Advisory Group, 16/02/21. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | 17/11/2020 - Update on analysis of linked de-identified data of the impact of COVID19 on the Welsh population using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) system. Welsh Government COVID19 Technical Advisory Group |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Update on analysis of linked de-identified data of the impact of COVID19 on the Welsh population using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) system. Welsh Government COVID19 Technical Advisory Group, 17/11/20. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | 18/11/2020 - COVID19 and ethnicity in Wales - findings from linked data. First Minister's BAME (Black Asian and Minority Ethnic) Advisory Group |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | COVID19 and ethnicity in Wales - findings from linked data. First Minister's BAME (Black Asian and Minority Ethnic) Advisory Group, 18/11/20. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | 19/01/2021 - Analysis of linked de-identified data of the impact of COVID19 on the Welsh population using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) system. School bubbles analysis. Welsh Government COVID19 Technical Advisory Group |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Analysis of linked de-identified data of the impact of COVID19 on the Welsh population using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) system. School bubbles analysis. Welsh Government COVID19 Technical Advisory Group, 19/01/2021. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | 21/01/2021 - Data Science and Population Health Research. University of British Columbia, Canada |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Data Science and Population Health Research. University of British Columbia, Canada, 21/01/21. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | 28/01/2020 Big Data and Public Health. Sandra Macara BMA Memorial Lecture |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | PRESENTATION TO BIG DATA AND PUBLIC HEALTH, SANDRA MACARA MEMORIAL LECTURE IN CARDIFF |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | 30/09/2020 - Using linked data to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic in Wales. Workshop for Health and Care Research Wales annual conference |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Using linked data to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic in Wales. Workshop for Health and Care Research Wales annual conference, 30/09/20. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Consumer Panel meeting - Januray 2021 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Patients, carers and/or patient groups |
Results and Impact | Topics covered; • UCL - AIM project proposal • Public Health Wales - The mental health in shielded children and children living in shielded households • HDR UK - How has COVID-19 impacted non-COVID-19 healthcare service use and provision in Wales? • Examining associations between complications of pregnancy and incident cardiovascular disease |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Consumer Panel meeting - June 2020 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Patients, carers and/or patient groups |
Results and Impact | 16 members of the public who meet on a quarterly basis to provide public persepctive on health data research projects. This meeting covered the topics of; PPI/E impact pathway for the BREATHE Hub Contact Tracing App deliberation project PPI/E plan |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Consumer Panel meeting - September 2020 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Patients, carers and/or patient groups |
Results and Impact | 16 members of the public who meet on a quarterly basis to provide public persepctive on health data research projects. This meeting covered the topics of; Agriculture community wellbeing study Summary of work carried out by HDR UK during the pandemic Health Foundation; Networked Data Labs Wales - discussion on topic selection |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Swansea Volunteer Management Network Meeting |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
Results and Impact | Around 30 volunteer managers from a wide range of third sector organisations from across the Swansea area meet on a regular basis to support one another and share good practice, this is a reccuring bimonthly meeting. In the October 2020 meeting, Lynsey Cross delivered a presentation on the PPI/E work which is carried out by HDR UK. From this presentation a number of working relationships have been forged and a new member of the public has applied to become a member of the Consumer Panel. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |