PrepSense: Preparing for the Impact of Climate and Land-Use Changes on Environmentally Sensitive Diseases
Lead Research Organisation:
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Department Name: Biodiversity (Wallingford)
Abstract
Climate change is substantially impacting on human, animal and plant health. In the UK, this includes increasing risk for new and re-emerging diseases. Environmentally sensitive diseases (ESDs) have transmission stages that are affected and influenced by the environment for prolonged periods (e.g., vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases, pathogenic fungi etc). In comparison to many directly transmitted diseases (e.g., human/avian influenza), ESDs are therefore particularly sensitive to climate change [1-3]. ESD impacts have already been linked to climate change [4], and these climate changes are robustly predicted to continue this century [5-6]. ESD risk is also shaped by other environmental factors, chief among them is land-use. While UK and international policies on climate change are critical to address long-term disease risk, land-use policy could have a significant and relatively fast-acting effect on national ESD risk [2,7].
Unfortunately, land-use policies designed to mitigate the long-term impacts of climate change may have un-intended effects on ESDs across human, animal and plant health. For example, water management policies designed for flood risk may provide ideal breeding habitats for mosquitoes and thus increase the risk of zoonotic mosquito-borne diseases. Conservation, reforestation and rewilding policies could increase the risk of crop plant diseases, whilst at the same time provide improved habitat for the UK deer species, which themselves are a key component for tick-borne pathogen transmission.
We lack a unified approach to preparedness for ESDs due to the complex ecology and the diversity of science and policy disciplines. Furthermore, many ESDs share common changing climate and land-use drivers [8]. Because of this commonality, we argue that ESD risk must be better integrated into land-use policy decision making. Here, we propose a holistic One Health approach to break down the siloed thinking to better prepare for these future threats [9-10].
PrepSense will bring together stakeholders, policy and decision-makers with social, economic, experimental and data scientists and modellers to enhance preparedness to selected priority ESD risks precipitated by climate change and changing land-use policies. To achieve this, we will conduct a rapid scoping review of relevant cross-sectoral policies, followed by an ecosystem mapping exercise to identify the key stakeholders at the climate change, land-use change and ESD interface. These stakeholders will then participate in a series of in-person and virtual workshops designed to enhance network building and address 5 research questions:
How is land-use and climate change influencing priority ESDs?
Which policy initiatives may increase or decrease ESD risks (either directly or indirectly) and what evidence is needed to demonstrate this?
How might stakeholders' requirements for evidence change as ESD risks emerge given impacts of land-use and climate change?
How can data and models best inform decision-making in different epidemiological scenarios to increase preparedness and reduce health impacts?
What novel solutions and integration are needed (e.g., surveillance, experiments, data and models) to meet these needs?
These questions will identify the shared, interconnected risks for priority EDSs across human, animal and plant health for better preparedness. We will identify common best and novel approaches for preparedness, as well as key common knowledge gaps that hamper preparedness. These will then be synthesised as a research agenda and roadmap to develop a unified One Health approach across these discipline areas, which will be distilled into a white paper and form the basis for our Phase 2 proposal.
Unfortunately, land-use policies designed to mitigate the long-term impacts of climate change may have un-intended effects on ESDs across human, animal and plant health. For example, water management policies designed for flood risk may provide ideal breeding habitats for mosquitoes and thus increase the risk of zoonotic mosquito-borne diseases. Conservation, reforestation and rewilding policies could increase the risk of crop plant diseases, whilst at the same time provide improved habitat for the UK deer species, which themselves are a key component for tick-borne pathogen transmission.
We lack a unified approach to preparedness for ESDs due to the complex ecology and the diversity of science and policy disciplines. Furthermore, many ESDs share common changing climate and land-use drivers [8]. Because of this commonality, we argue that ESD risk must be better integrated into land-use policy decision making. Here, we propose a holistic One Health approach to break down the siloed thinking to better prepare for these future threats [9-10].
PrepSense will bring together stakeholders, policy and decision-makers with social, economic, experimental and data scientists and modellers to enhance preparedness to selected priority ESD risks precipitated by climate change and changing land-use policies. To achieve this, we will conduct a rapid scoping review of relevant cross-sectoral policies, followed by an ecosystem mapping exercise to identify the key stakeholders at the climate change, land-use change and ESD interface. These stakeholders will then participate in a series of in-person and virtual workshops designed to enhance network building and address 5 research questions:
How is land-use and climate change influencing priority ESDs?
Which policy initiatives may increase or decrease ESD risks (either directly or indirectly) and what evidence is needed to demonstrate this?
How might stakeholders' requirements for evidence change as ESD risks emerge given impacts of land-use and climate change?
How can data and models best inform decision-making in different epidemiological scenarios to increase preparedness and reduce health impacts?
What novel solutions and integration are needed (e.g., surveillance, experiments, data and models) to meet these needs?
These questions will identify the shared, interconnected risks for priority EDSs across human, animal and plant health for better preparedness. We will identify common best and novel approaches for preparedness, as well as key common knowledge gaps that hamper preparedness. These will then be synthesised as a research agenda and roadmap to develop a unified One Health approach across these discipline areas, which will be distilled into a white paper and form the basis for our Phase 2 proposal.
