THRIVING food futures (Transdisciplinary Health Research to Identify Viable Interventions for Netzero Goals: food futures)

The food we eat is responsible for one third of all global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and food-related emissions are growing. Changing our diet would result in greater reductions in GHG emissions than changing farming methods or reducing food waste. The UK will not be able to meet its legal Net Zero targets without changes to our diet. Fortunately, diets high in fruit, vegetables and cereals and low in red and processed meat are not only good for the planet but also for our health. Policies aimed at promoting healthy, sustainable diets could reduce cases of diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer, and if they reach most people in the population they could also reduce health inequalities.

Some major barriers have prevented policy action on healthy, sustainable diets. Firstly, a perceived lack of public support has led policymakers to avoid work in this area for fear of being characterised as 'nanny state'. Secondly, some ambitious policy initiatives have been overlooked due to lack of real-world evidence about their effectiveness. But real-world evidence often requires research with an industry partner - if the food industry is unwilling to trial a policy due to fear of potential financial impacts, then the evidence cannot be produced.

Recent data breakthroughs on the environmental impact of food have unlocked a new generation of food policies. The THRIVING Food Futures research hub will bring together academics, policymakers, industry and civil society to design and evaluate them. Our hub will be supported by community panels to ensure a diverse public voice is involved in all stages of our work. The policies we design and evaluate will change the citizen-facing food system to support healthy, sustainable diets for everyone.

We will build a longlist of policy options through a review of international policies, supplemented by interviews with policymakers and industry representatives. Citizen juries conducted at five locations around the UK will identify what elements of the longlist are acceptable to the public. To support these policies, we will develop a Nutrient and Environment Profiling Model - an algorithm to identify unhealthy and / or unsustainable foods based on their nutritional content and environmental impact.

We will build systems maps to demonstrate potential intended and unintended consequences of our prioritised policies. We will then conduct a prioritisation exercise to identify a shortlist of policies with the greatest potential to change diets and reduce health inequalities. We will evaluate the shortlisted policies in field trials. Where possible, we will work with partners (e.g. schools, retailers, caterers) to trial a policy and measure its impact on sales or food choices. We will also build novel digital tools to allow us to conduct trials without partners. We will build smartphone apps that direct users to real-life online supermarkets and food delivery companies which we have manipulated to replicate a prioritised policy (e.g. hiding promotions on unsustainable food). Our outcome measures for these trials will be the nutritional quality and environmental impact of food purchases.

By working with policymakers and the public throughout, THRIVING Food Futures will build a coalition of support for transformative policy action. We will produce innovative research and policy tools, and systems maps to inform evaluations that will be used beyond our research hub. And our evaluations will provide real-life evidence of policies aimed at healthy, sustainable and equitable diets.