Taking Earth's volcanic pulse: understanding global volcanic hazards by unlocking the ice core isotope archive

Explosive volcanic eruptions spew enormous quantities of ash and gas into the atmosphere. There are about 5-10 major volcanic events every year, and roughly 700 million people (10 % of the world's population) live close enough to be directly affected when they erupt. These eruptions may lead to significant human fatalities, and can also have devastating environmental impacts, covering the landscape in ash and acidic fallout, which destroys crops and harms livestock.

Although most of us in the UK will never witness one of these eruptions up close they can still impact our lives. This was demonstrated by the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland in April and May 2010. Although the eruption was relatively minor and did not kill anyone, it disrupted the travel of millions of people and cost global economies billions of pounds. This emergency highlighted the vulnerability of our global trade and transport networks, and the fact that the UK is at constant threat from disruption by volcanic events.

One of the key goals of volcanology is to study past volcanic events so that we can understand their return periods and environmental impacts, and help prepare society for the next 'big one'. Amazingly, the volcanic products from large explosive eruptions undergo regional and global distribution and can travel thousands of kilometres from their eruption source. However, in most surface environments this fine grained volcanic fallout is rapidly washed away and lost.

Ice sheets are the expedition to this, and by drilling into the ice and extracting ice cores scientists can identify the sulphur-rich layers and ash deposited by these past eruptions. Although ice cores provide the undisputed best archive of past volcanism, interpreting this record is not straightforward. The main difficulties we face are understanding where the source volcano was located and what its climate impact might have been. Even in records that span the last 2500 years, we only know the location of 7 of the 25 largest volcanic eruptions.

If scientists could learn how to extract more information about the likely source and environmental impacts of these eruptions from these records it would represent a major breakthrough. Not only would this help scientists target volcano monitoring in regions of the globe that are prone to large volcanic events, but by understanding the frequency and impacts of these past events we can prepare societies for future eruptions and reduce their economic impacts.

My project will take advantage of recent analytical breakthroughs in ice core research. In particular, recent analyses suggest that volcanic sulphur chemistry encodes critical information about the height the volcanic plume reached in the atmosphere and the proximity of the eruptive source to the ice sheet. This method would therefore provide critical new information about where the volcano was located and its climate impact (since plumes injected higher into the atmosphere tend to cause the greatest global cooling). I will carefully interrogate these techniques for several well-known volcanic eruptions, where we already have good information on their source location, eruption style and climate impacts. Once calibrated, I will use this chemical fingerprinting technique to determine the eruptive style (plume height) and source location of all significant eruptions over the last 2000 years.

Thus, this project will provide critical information about the magnitude, frequency and style of past eruptions which will be used to improve forecasts of future volcanic events. Being better prepared will help limit the loss of life and reduce the economic losses. For the UK, we'll gain a thorough understanding of the eruption frequency of large volcanic events in Iceland. For global society, we'll help pinpoint the source of past eruptions and evaluate the frequency of climate-changing eruptions on Earth.

Who will benefit?
1) International Organisations and Agencies
The International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI) Commission on Hazards and Risk links academic research to decision-makers, to reduce the impact of volcanic hazards.
The Global Volcano Model (GVM) is an international network who have built an information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. They were responsible for the first comprehensive assessment of global volcanic hazards. This was a joint GVM/IAVCEI contribution to the Global Assessment Report for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 (GAR15) prepared for the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR).
2) National Government (Devolved Government & Government Agencies)
The UK Cabinet Office provide assessments of the likelihood and impact of different risks that may affect the UK. Volcanic eruptions are on the National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies.
The British Geological Survey (BGS) volcanology group are involved in understanding volcanic processes, hazards and risks in the UK and globally. They engage with policy and decision makers, NGOs and the public, communicating strategies to mitigate of volcanic risks.
The MET office predict ash cloud dispersion and advise the UK Civil Aviation Authority (UK CAA) on potential air closures during an eruption.
3) Commercial Sector
Airlines and the insurance industry (e.g. AXA and Lloyd's) require information on eruption frequency, magnitude and impacts in order to build economic resilience and prepare for the next eruption.
4) The public and the next generation of scientists
Secondary school pupils in the UK whom I can inform and inspire with outreach activities about volcanic eruptions, hazards and climate change.

How will I deliver benefit?
1) International Organisations and Agencies: I will interact with these groups by attending workshops on volcanic hazard (e.g. meetings of the IAVCEI Commission on Hazards and Risk) where I can disseminate my new results and consult on future approaches to quantifying global volcanic risk. These groups have well-established platforms for gathering data on past eruptions and I will support these by uploading new eruption information to databases such as LaMEVE (Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions).
2) National Government (Devolved Government & Government Agencies): My study will provide new information on large volcanic eruptions that affect the UK. I will transfer my knowledge and contribute to policy by hosting a workshop that brings together experts in volcanology and risk communication (i.e. BGS, MET office and academic groups that have significant expertise in this area, e.g. STREVA). We will prepare a short briefing paper for the UK Cabinet Office Civil Contingencies Secretariat.
3) Commercial Sector: Collaborations through risk forums and the above workshop and briefing paper will allow me to communicate volcanic hazard information to these groups, and help mitigate against potential future economic losses caused by volcanism.
4) The public and the next generation of scientists: Secondary school students in Scotland will benefit from the GeoBus project, an educational outreach program hosted at University of St Andrews. I will develop a workshop on volcanoes and their impact on climate, environment and society. I will support the team every year of the fellowship and will undertake a one week trip to visit rural communities in Scotland who cannot usually access major science events. This is a cause that is close to my heart. I will also engage with and support these communities by providing public lectures at recently established Science festivals in Dundee and Inverness. I will also publicise the project results through the EGU's Geochemistry, Mineralogy, Petrology & Volcanology division blog (which I run), my personal website and twitter presence. Finally, I'll continue to work with our press team to catch attention of the media.