Global scale impacts of climate change: a multi-sectoral analysis
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Southampton
Department Name: School of Geography
Abstract
Climate policy should be informed by robust and credible information on the impacts of climate change across the global domain; a global perspective also places local and regional impacts in context, and helps identify potential 'hotspots' for further scientific investigation.The project assesses the global-scale impact of climate change using a range of linked impact modules and impact indicators, representing impacts on water resources, flood risk, food production, biodiversity and human health and well-being on land, at the coast, and at sea. The project will synthesise and aggregate across sectors and regions, using a variety of approaches, and allow the identification of the risks of specific impacts occurring at different rates of climate change.The methodology and results of the project also provide a framework for the assessment of the impacts of defined climate policies. First, it allows detailed geographically-explicit assessments of specific climate scenarios or climate policies, using the suite of linked models. Second, it allows the more rapid assessment of a very large number of climate outcomes (based for example on a probabilistic assessment of the climate effects of an emissions policy) using regionalised functions relating climate impact to indices of climate forcing.The project will be undertaken by a consortium of twelve lead partners, all with international reputations in the field of climate impact assessment.
Organisations
Publications
Xu H
(2010)
Hydrological modeling of River Xiangxi using SWAT2005: A comparison of model parameterizations using station and gridded meteorological observations
in Quaternary International
Gosling SN
(2010)
Global hydrology modelling and uncertainty: running multiple ensembles with a campus grid.
in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
Nicholls RJ
(2011)
Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a 'beyond 4°C world' in the twenty-first century.
in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
Poppy GM
(2014)
Food security in a perfect storm: using the ecosystem services framework to increase understanding.
in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
Poppy GM
(2014)
Achieving food and environmental security: new approaches to close the gap.
in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
Arnell N
(2013)
A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change
in Nature Climate Change
Yeh P
(2011)
Multimodel Estimate of the Global Terrestrial Water Balance: Setup and First Results
in Journal of Hydrometeorology
Arnell N
(2013)
The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale
in Journal of Hydrology
Arnell N
(2011)
Uncertainty in the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response in UK catchments
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Kingston D
(2011)
Uncertainty in climate change projections of discharge for the Mekong River Basin
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Description | Influence on UK climate policy negotiators |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
Impact | The paper (Arnell et al., 2013) has been used by DECC to support its position on climate change temperature targets. The paper describes the impacts avoided by different climate change pathways, and was produced during the DECC-funded AVOID project which built upon QUEST-GSI. Subsequent research based on QUEST-GSI has been used by DECC to inform its position during the 2015 COP21 Paris climate negotiations. |
URL | http://www.avoid.uk.net/ |
Description | AVOID |
Amount | £800,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Department of Energy and Climate Change |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2009 |
End | 03/2013 |
Description | AVOID2 |
Amount | £1,450,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Department of Energy and Climate Change |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2014 |
End | 03/2016 |
Description | Impacts of climate change |
Amount | £31,500 (GBP) |
Organisation | Committee on Climate Change (CCC) |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2015 |
End | 06/2015 |
Title | QUEST-GSI global impacts |
Description | The QUEST-GSI project produced estimates of the impacts of climate change across a range of metrics at gridded (0.5x0.5o) and regional scales. The gridded data are available through BADC, and the regional data are provided as Supplementary Material in published papers. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2014 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | None yet |
URL | http://badc.nerc.ac.uk |
Description | Groundwater, Climate Change & Adaptation |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Lead presentation at a side event at COP15 in Copenhagen n/a |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2009 |