An assessment of the potential novel future threats and opportunities to UK biodiversity: a horizon scanning approach

Lead Research Organisation: University of Cambridge
Department Name: Zoology


Ecology has been poor at identifying and researching novel issues. For example the ecological research on GM herbicide tolerant crops were carried out after the product had been on the market (and withdrawn). This is inefficient and gives the science of ecology a poor reputation. Our proposal is to use a novel collaborative technique to identify issues that could potentially affect UK biodiversity.We have planned a collaboration of the leading ecological and conservation groups in the UK, leading academics and science journalists in order to identify the most important and under researched issues that have the potential to be of importance for UK biodiversity in the next 50 years but have not been of importance in the past. We expect this horizon scanning exercise to be published in a leading ecological journal. This work should be of considerable importance is helping set the policy agendas for a range of organisations, including NERC's Living with Environmental Change programme. It is also likely to be influential in determining the research trajectories of academics.


10 25 50
Description Horizon scanning is an essential tool for environmental scientists if they are to contribute to the evidence base for Government, its agencies and other decision makers to devise and implement environmental policies. The implication of not foreseeing issues that are foreseeable is illustrated by the contentious responses to genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops in the UK, and by challenges surrounding biofuels, foot and mouth disease, avian influenza and climate change.
A total of 35 representatives from organizations involved in environmental policy, academia, scientific journalism and horizon scanning were asked to use wide consultation to identify the future novel or step changes in threats to, and opportunities for, biodiversity that might arise in the UK up to 2050, but that had not been important in the recent past. At least 452 people were consulted.
Cases for 195 submitted issues were distributed to all participants for comments and additions. All issues were scored (probability, hazard, novelty and overall score) prior to a 2-day workshop.
Shortlisting to 41 issues and then the final 25 issues, together with refinement of these issues, took place at the workshop during another two rounds of discussion and scoring.
We provide summaries of the 25 shortlisted issues and outline the research needs.
We suggest that horizon scanning incorporating wide consultation with providers and users of environmental science is used by environmental policy makers and researchers. This can be used to identify gaps in knowledge and policy, and to identify future key issues for biodiversity, including those arising from outside the domains of ecology and biodiversity.
Horizon scanning can be used by environmental policy makers and researchers to identify gaps in knowledge and policy. Drawing on the experience, expertise and research of policy advisors, academics and journalists, this exercise helps set the agenda for policy, practice and research.
Exploitation Route planning to respond to environmental change
Sectors Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice

Description This set the agenda for future environmental issues. I think it is impressive in setting out agenda for the changes that have actualy occured. This lead to an annual NERC funded exercise to identify future horzon scanning issues.
First Year Of Impact 2008
Sector Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Policy & public services