Whole lake responses to species invasion mediated by climate change

Lake ecosystems face multiple stresses including nutrient enrichment, climate change and invasion of nonindigenous species. This latter stress is widely recognised as having a major impact on biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems worldwide and its effects are increasing because human activity has enhanced rates of dispersal and climate change is opening new niches at high latitudes. Windermere, comprising two basins, is England's largest lake and one of the best studied in the world with detailed records extending back for up to 70 years. A marked deterioration in water quality has been observed in the last 10 to 15 years despite continued removal of a key nutrient, phosphorus, at the wastewater treatment works. For example, summer algal blooms have increased and concentrations of oxygen at depth have decreased. The numbers of the rare and protected fish, the Arctic charr, have also declined dramatically in recent years. These changes have coincided with the population expansion of a lower-latitude, nonindigenous species, the roach. In this project we will test the hypotheses that the roach expansion is a result of the documented warmer waters in Windermere and that the population increase has triggered a 'trophic cascade' leading to greater predation on the zooplankton, which in turn has reduced the algae from control by their grazer. We will also test whether the decline in Arctic charr numbers results from competition with roach, since both feed on the zooplankton. We are in a unique position to assess the long term ramifications of multiple stressors because of the wealth ecological and environmental data and preserved samples collected from Windermere for most of the last century. The project will involve targeted, detailed analysis of the long-term data, analysis of the historical archived fish and zooplankton samples, identification of food sources of the different fish populations and food-web structure using stable isotope analysis and studies of fish gut contents, hydroacoustic analysis to estimate fish density and location and modelling to estimate roach ecological niche, zooplankton grazing and algal growth. The project is relevant to current general ecological issues such as the importance of top-down-control, the effects of multiple stressors and possible species extinction caused by species invasion. The results will also be highly relevant to the management of lakes since if our hypotheses are correct, nutrient removal will need to be even more stringent in the face of climate change and disruption of food-chains caused by invasion of nonindigenous species.